peninsula 2007-8-17 08:52
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-17 08:50 發表
Yes, I agree. It should have less room for further drop, but 250-day line still serve as a support.
Too horrible to hear that Yen has reached 110.1 yesterday night !! Now at 113.81, Japanese peo ... [/quote]
110 - very scary!:L:help::jaw::afraid:
mmr.ren 2007-8-17 09:07
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-8-17 00:52 發表
110 - very scary!:L:help::jaw::afraid: [/quote]
die hard...... 110.......... :burst:
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-17 09:20
Oh, sorry. I type it wrong. Should be 112.01 !!!
But at this time it is likely for it to jump to 110.
[quote]原帖由 [i]mmr.ren[/i] 於 2007-8-17 09:07 發表
die hard...... 110.......... :burst: [/quote]
peninsula 2007-8-17 09:21
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-17 09:20 發表
Oh, sorry. I type it wrong. Should be 112.01 !!!
But at this time it is likely for it to jump to 110. [/quote]
110 can be reached soon.:L:afraid::oh::jaw::'(
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-17 09:23
You are exactly right !!! Too horrible recently. Now Yen trade near 113.03. Below is the extract from bloomberg.
"The yen rose to 152.08 per euro at 10:20 a.m. in Tokyo from 152.88 late in New York yesterday, when it reached 150.03, the highest since November. It also climbed to 113.38 against the dollar from 113.89 yesterday, when it touched 112.01, the strongest since June 2006. The yen may rise to 110 against the dollar and 145 per euro in a month"
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-8-17 09:21 發表
110 can be reached soon.:L:afraid::oh::jaw::'( [/quote]
peninsula 2007-8-17 09:25
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-17 09:23 發表
You are exactly right !!! Too horrible recently. Now Yen trade near 113.03. .. [/quote]
Yes, no EYE see la.:soldier::afraid::dizzy::sleeping::oh::(
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-17 16:11
The only reason for me to explain for the roller coaster today is because those pushing the market down (likely that they are holding put Futures contract) see that Nikkel fall more than 5% today and that is a good excuse to push the market further down for around 1,300 points and significantly deviate from the 250-day line. However, after 3:00 pm, they see that European market is rebounding so they afriad that Dow will rebound too tonight. In order to get away for this risk, they need to stop and those friendly guys started to counterattack again and make HSI rebound.
The market is still unclear, so don't think that the worst is over. Trade with caution.
[[i] 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-17 16:14 編輯 [/i]]
peninsula 2007-8-17 16:19
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-17 16:11 發表
The only reason for me to explain for the roller coaster today is because those pushing the market down (likely that they are holding put Futures contract) see that Nikkel fall more than 5% today a ... [/quote]
The worst is not over as HSI future down 200 points more from physical HSI.:o:(:quiet::reading:
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-18 10:51
Very luckily that the Federal Reserve finally cut the discount rate by 0.5%, with the following statement:
"The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets"
It might be possible that the Federal Reserve will also cut the federal funds rate which is currently at 5.25%. Before that, Fed wish to observe the environment after cutting the discount rate. However, Fed need how much time to observe ?? Will the Committee immediately cut the federal funds rate in its next meeting in September after cutting the discount rate in the middle of this month??
Some of the analysts are actually saying the right thing, is that the cutting of discount rate will benefit the subprime victims ??
As for my comments, discount rate will temporarily play a positive role in the market and the people will expect Fed will cut the rate soon. However, the subprime crisis still haven't been solved at the moment. Cutting the discount rate will benefit the banks and the big company lowering their cost of borrowing, and it takes a considerable period of time for this benefit passing to the victims of the crisis. Only if the rate cut in the federal fund rate will penerate to these victims at once. Cut in federal rate might lower their financial burden by paying less interest, and also the atomosphere of the housing market might be boosted by the rate cut.
I have another question in mind "Will the US Economy start stepping into the downside of the cycle ??" after the rate cut. For me, rate cut means that the economy start to have some problems and could not sustain under a high interest rate environment.
leon3114 2007-8-19 13:20
一個星期可以返回二萬三千了
好友萬歲
jk3g3w4i 2007-8-20 09:23
果然不出我所料恒指在7月期結跌幅達800點之多
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peninsula 2007-8-20 09:43
[quote]原帖由 [i]leon3114[/i] 於 2007-8-19 13:20 發表
一個星期可以返回二萬三千了
好友萬歲 [/quote]
Really?:o:afraid::wondering::oh:
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-20 20:52
It is really a very good news that China allow her "small" investors to invest in other markets and the first trial will be in HK. This is actually more effective than the QDII product previously promoted in China. The small investors will finally realize that HK is a very good market to play with because HK will not have a trading suspension mechanism even if the stocks jumps and falls by more than 10%. Perhaps later "small price stocks" will attract lot of these "red" money and the crazy environment in trading small stock will re-appear again in the near future. Of course, HKEX will be the company most influenced by this verygood news. Will the HSI have more than 200 Billions turnover per day later ??
Back to the discussion of the market, it is very difficult to use technical anlaysis to predict the market trend right now. However, as we could see from the graph, there are still many gaps HSI have to fill, the 20-day line (at 22,226) will serve as a resistance.
Don't be so optimistic at the moment. We still need to observe what is going to happen in the US market. Subprime crisis is still there and remains unsolved. The incoming data in this week (such as Initial Jobless Claims on Wed, Durable Goods Orders (New Orders) on Thur and the most important one on Friday - the New Home Sales) will play a crucial role in leading the market.
[[i] 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-20 20:54 編輯 [/i]]
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-21 01:17
[quote]Originally posted by [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] at 2007-8-20 20:52
It is really a very good news that China allow her "small" investors to invest in other markets and the first trial will be in HK. This is actually more effective than the QDII product pr ... [/quote]
I am back, just back to HK, and seen the market dramactically V shape on last friday, and rebound another 1200 pts today. That is very good.
I did place an order to 2628 and 1800 before I left HK; both got filled with good price. I did not believe it could be filled.
Dow is now still down 65 pts, don't know what will happen later tonight, hopefully get bound back.
For the technical line, it can not really tell what is going on in HK. HK does affect by global factors.
Can also be affected by China as well.
I can see small investor can do trade in HK through BOC in HK which is another proved China govt doesn't want to see HK collpase. She will find a way to save HK; from 1997 till now whenver HK got problem.
I still strongly believe HK market still good later. No matter who are talking about bear market coming, it maybe in US, but can not crash HK market easily.
Unless such as carry trade or big investment banks got problem. If only US internal depression, it won't really hurt HK much.
As said, China won't let HK crash, it is all about the facts. QDII, and now small investors invest to HK directly. Could be more and more benefits to HK if necessary.
Hope HSI keep moving up this week since it dropped 4000 pts from peak. Rebound is so powerful like today:givemefive:
nonhuman 2007-8-21 01:46
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3a4b5c6c 2007-8-21 01:59
[quote]Originally posted by [i]nonhuman[/i] at 2007-8-21 01:46
I think China Government will keep out "release" money to Hong Kong. Too much money is in China. It will bubble up the asset market. She wants to release the surplus to international mark ... [/quote]
I agreed so, it is a fact
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-21 08:41
Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price. :lol
Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the same time, China will help HK market by releasing "benefits". Very luckily that we have such a good grandfather !!
The question now remains the way to find good stocks. Which are the targets of those investors from China ?? Blue chips, red chips, HSCEI chips or small chips ??
In the beginning, i think they will try some chips they are familiar with and those are not available for trading in the "A" market, such as some of the HSCEI chips and red chips.
[quote]原帖由 [i]3a4b5c6c[/i] 於 2007-8-21 01:17 發表
I am back, just back to HK, and seen the market dramactically V shape on last friday, and rebound another 1200 pts today. That is very good.
I did place an order to 2628 and 1800 before I ... [/quote]
[[i] 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-21 08:44 編輯 [/i]]
peninsula 2007-8-21 09:43
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-21 08:41 發表
Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price. :lol
Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the sa ... [/quote]
Always BUY "dragon head" stocks and you will be relatively safe.:quiet::lookaround::o:reading:;P
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-21 10:51
[quote]Originally posted by [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] at 2007-8-21 08:41
Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price. :lol
Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the sa ... [/quote]
Chinese will definitely buy the topest one in the sector, and the gap huge different.
then will look into HKCEI and HK local blue chip
mmr.ren 2007-8-21 11:26
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-8-21 01:43 發表
Always BUY "dragon head" stocks and you will be relatively safe.:quiet::lookaround::o:reading:;P [/quote]
Need to buy dragon head of dragon heads to be safe...
Dragon head of a particular industry is simply not safe enough :dizzy:
小小力 2007-8-21 11:35
[quote]原帖由 [i]mmr.ren[/i] 於 2007-8-21 11:26 發表
Need to buy dragon head of dragon heads to be safe...
Dragon head of a particular industry is simply not safe enough :dizzy: [/quote]
So, choose 2628 lor...I think it's safe!! :D
peninsula 2007-8-21 11:48
[quote]原帖由 [i]小小力[/i] 於 2007-8-21 11:35 發表
So, choose 2628 lor...I think it's safe!! :D [/quote]
My favorites are :
#2628 (YES), #3328, #358, #939, #2866, #2343, #3311, #3323
More speculative : #569, #598, #656, #1813 #2380
nonhuman 2007-8-21 15:52
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peninsula 2007-8-21 15:55
[quote]原帖由 [i]nonhuman[/i] 於 2007-8-21 15:52 發表
How about 3968 ..... still very strong for this few days [/quote]
Yes, that and #857, #883 etc.:o:reading::soldier:
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-21 21:05
688 is also very good. A very explosive quality China property stock !!!
For insurance company, I personally like 2318.
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-8-21 15:55 發表
Yes, that and #857, #883 etc.:o:reading::soldier: [/quote]
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-21 21:54
Volatility in the market was so much today, with a close of only 133 points gain. The turnover is relatively large. Short term profit taking could not be negligible at the moment.
It is worthy to see #5 still lost today. One of the reasons for me to explain this is mainly because those small investors from China will not have much interest to buy this kind of "exotic" stocks at the early stage. They will only buy those with China background in the very beginning. Some other examples similar to #5 are #330 & #494.
Another reason for their drops today is perhaps the subprime crisis remain unsolved in US and Europe, and this nightmare still affect their recent performance. Henry Paulson just came out and said that there are liquidity concerns which will take time to play out. Likely that Dow Jones need to take some more time before its ride to the next record peak.
Some brokers predicted that the amount of the hot money from China to Hong Kong might reach 800 billion dollars. It is very huge as the capital size of the market is below 20,000 billion dollars. The hot money could provide long term support (and of course fluctuation) to the HK market.
Back to the discussion in the market, as mentioned before, 20-day line (at 22,139) serves as the resistance at the current stage. Even if HSI break this resistance in the morning, but finally it could not close above this line. 100-day line (at 21,343) could temporarily acts as the short term support to the HSI.
China has announced the ride in interest, and the ride in saving interest and the loan interest varies. This might exert some pressure to the stocks in the China banking industry. Likely that we will have a lower opening tomorrow. However, i don't think the market will drop too much, as there are lots of investors are waiting for chance to buy quality stocks.
Friends, trade with caution.
[[i] 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-21 22:14 編輯 [/i]]
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-22 00:55
[quote]Originally posted by [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] at 2007-8-21 21:54
Volatility in the market was so much today, with a close of only 133 points gain. The turnover is relatively large. Short term profit taking could not be negligible at the moment.
It is worthy t ... [/quote]
Very good analysis again.
I agreed with your point of view.
I personally like 2628 the most. Of course, 2318 is a very good one to hold for long too. Actually insurance sector is almost the best sector in China market today.
peninsula 2007-8-22 09:16
[quote]原帖由 [i]3a4b5c6c[/i] 於 2007-8-22 00:55 發表
Very good analysis again.
I agreed with your point of view.
I personally like 2628 the most. Of course, 2318 is a very good one to hold for long too. Actually insurance sector is almost ... [/quote]
#2318 is second choice insurance stock.:P;P:o
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-22 22:38
Again, after China raise the interest rate, both Stock A and the HK market went up again, especially those property stocks which gained signficantily.
#941 again and again these few days contributes so much to the HSI. It was $75 at its lowest last Friday, and yesterday and today it almost reached $93. Within these three or four trading days, it has $18 gain, which accounts for a increase of 24%. Was that too much and too fast ?? Will $93 serve as a wall again like few weeks ago and make #941 recede ??
Back to the discussion in the market, the HSI rise again with comparatively fewer turnover today, indicating that some people has finished profit taking, and some of the others at this stage prefer to watch and do nothing. HSI could close above 20-day line today which is a very good sign. All the gaps previoulsy produced were filled.
It is now very difficult to predict the trend with technical analysis. 9RSI (at 56) did not suggest the market is over-bought, the HSI might still have chance to get further up without correction. I remember last time the drop in Feb and March 06 also recovered in a speedy way and hit another peak. Therefore, we could not deny this scenario will come again this time.
Of course, we might also have chance to drop a little bit after filling all the gaps.
Dow is very positive at the early stage of today's trading. Don't know whether it could sustain before its close. We don't have data to be released tonight. However, we will have the employment data and the housing data on Thursday and Friday respectively, which will affect the trading atmosphere significantly.
In addition, BOJ will annouce its rate decision tomorrow noon. Market don't think that BOJ will keep the rate unchanged. If something come out which is out of expectation, the market will react very badly tomorrow afternoon. Keep an eyes on Yen.
Keep in mind that "The level of drop is unbelievable in the market, but at the same time the level of ride is also unexpected". Therefore, we should think in an "abnormal" way. This sentence applied to all the case in the market since the Christmas 06.
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-22 23:29
[quote]Originally posted by [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] at 2007-8-22 22:38
Again, after China raise the interest rate, both Stock A and the HK market went up again, especially those property stocks which gained signficantily.
#941 again and again these few days contrib ... [/quote]
#941 is a main stock to drive HSI up and down. So, can up $18 in few days that pushed HSI up over thousand points for sure
For Yen, I think interest will remain the same this time, nothing special.
The remain uncertain factors after tomorrow.
1. 2nd mortgage issue in US
2. Potential correction or big correction in China stock market soon.
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-22 23:55
I agree with you prefectly, especially the second point. Some investors will withdraw the money from Stock A (with high P/E) and enter Stock H (with relatively low P/E) in HK. A correction in the "A" market is expected.
[quote]原帖由 [i]3a4b5c6c[/i] 於 2007-8-22 23:29 發表
#941 is a main stock to drive HSI up and down. So, can up $18 in few days that pushed HSI up over thousand points for sure
For Yen, I think interest will remain the same this time, nothin ... [/quote]
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-23 01:12
[quote]Originally posted by [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] at 2007-8-22 23:55
I agree with you prefectly, especially the second point. Some investors will withdraw the money from Stock A (with high P/E) and enter Stock H (with relatively low P/E) in HK. A correction in the & ... [/quote]
I think we shall play more safe on our portfolio, I will probably sell most of my stocks which do not have A share and all call warrants at this moment.
Will hold share which have A share with big gap to H share.
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-23 11:45
From BOJ:
"The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent."
peninsula 2007-8-23 14:02
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-23 11:45 發表
From BOJ:
"The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent." [/quote]
So that is good news?:wondering::reading::lookaround:
小小力 2007-8-23 14:09
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-8-23 14:02 發表
So that is good news?:wondering::reading::lookaround: [/quote]
It is just as expected!! :reading:
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-23 21:22
We have another big jump today for the HSI, with a quite good turnover. Within four days in this week, we have a increase of more than 2,000 points. Is it too much ??
I could think in another way. Last time, without the very good news that the mainland investors could make direct investment to the HK market, HSI could stand above 22,500 for a month. Now we have this piece of good news, so I think it is still acceptable if HSI stand at the present position. Of course, this wave of rebound is very speedy, just using 4 days and recover all the lose. However, do you think it is over-sold in the previous week ?? Don't underestimate the power of our mainland investors, they might pull the P/E of the HSI to more than 20.
Indeed, a little correction in the HK market will be more healthy. Anyway, Dow seems to be quite positive today after Bank of America said that they will help Countrywide by pumping money to them and get their shares. Likely that Dow will close at the positive region tonight. Hence, we might have another heap tomorrow.
Carry trade activities is active today and Yen recede to 116.44 (at around 6 p.m. Yen almost drop to 117.0). Almost all the high yield currency went up, British pound is good. 10 years US treasuray bond rate is going up a little bit.
For HK, the HSI had produced a very large gap today bewteen 22,800 and 22,300 (200 points ??). We might need to fill that in the coming few days before breaking the record high. RSI (9) =62 might not be too high. The top of the bollinger channel (at 23,498) might give some resistance, but luckily that the HSI is trading above the middle line of the channel today.
Trade with caution again !!
[[i] 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-23 21:46 編輯 [/i]]
你口水真多 2007-8-24 04:52
I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.
你口水真多 2007-8-24 04:53
I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.
你口水真多 2007-8-24 04:53
I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-24 08:23
Yes, the decision of federal fund rate is very important. There should be a FOMC meeting in 18 September. Whether rate cut before that is still a question mark. The market is now reflecting there will be a rate cut, if something come out on the other sizes will exert a very high pressure to the market. As long as you all understand, FOMC still need to take care of the possible inflation. They will only cut the rate if the market is really bad !
[quote]原帖由 [i]你口水真多[/i] 於 2007-8-24 04:53 發表
I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the ... [/quote]
cherryjasonchan 2007-8-24 08:45
We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday night. Bank of China (3988) might drop because it has the subprime related equity with a number more than expected.
I personally don't think the drop of the HSI will be too much today as there are huge buying force at the back (not the mainland investors at the moment).
peninsula 2007-8-24 08:48
[quote]原帖由 [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] 於 2007-8-24 08:45 發表
We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday ... [/quote]
Maybe flat today la.:reading::o:lookaround:
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-24 11:15
[quote]Originally posted by [i]cherryjasonchan[/i] at 2007-8-24 08:45
We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday night. Bank of China (3988) might drop because it has the subprime related equity with a number more than expected.
I pe ... [/quote]
Dropping 180 pts now, but has rebounded from losing over 300 pts an hour ago.
Market today will not drop much, just a bit correction after rising 4 straight days with huge pts gained.
peninsula 2007-8-24 16:49
[quote]原帖由 [i]3a4b5c6c[/i] 於 2007-8-24 11:15 發表
Dropping 180 pts now, but has rebounded from losing over 300 pts an hour ago.
Market today will not drop much, just a bit correction after rising 4 straight days with huge pts gained. [/quote]
As I stated, flat today!;P:P:blowme:
chinchinchin 2007-8-24 16:53
謝謝分析!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Air Supply 2007-8-24 16:55
[quote]原帖由 [i]chinchinchin[/i] 於 2007-8-24 16:53 發表
謝謝分析!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! [/quote]
唔駛客氣! 多啲入嚟俾啲意見吖~ :handshake
Air Supply 2007-8-24 16:58
[b][size=5][color=Blue]股神之見[/color][/size][/b]
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-24 17:14
[quote]Originally posted by [i]peninsula[/i] at 2007-8-24 16:49
As I stated, flat today!;P:P:blowme: [/quote]
Only dropped 45 pts today, that is pretty flat.
But I have made good money today especially from 2628 and related call warrants:)
peninsula 2007-8-24 17:17
[quote]原帖由 [i]3a4b5c6c[/i] 於 2007-8-24 17:14 發表
Only dropped 45 pts today, that is pretty flat.
But I have made good money today especially from 2628 and related call warrants:) [/quote]
Yes and good on you!:hamsup::o:reading::lookaround:
3a4b5c6c 2007-8-24 19:10
[quote]Originally posted by [i]peninsula[/i] at 2007-8-24 17:17
Yes and good on you!:hamsup::o:reading::lookaround: [/quote]
Yes, not bad at all, and now waiting for 2628 earning report release on next monday, hopefully 2628 can fly skyhigh.:)