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Correction is coming!

[color=Blue][size=3]Recent development in HK and global stock market,,,

1. A lot of rumours about Fed cut rate big, and bad news (more subprime bankrupcy and money injection) are pricing in as positive factors,,,,

2. HKSARG unexpected accumulation of 388 had sparked off numerous controversies, but the greatest effect is to stimulate the crowd to chase hot stocks,,, rumours about 13's 3G and other companies keep exposing

3. HK interest rate would be stagnant in coming quarter, but there are unrealistic expectations about possible adjustment following US, together with Guangdong record land auction, which greatly stimulates our local property stocks,,,

4. US Fed rate will cut about .25% or might remain the same to prevent excessive USD depreciation,,, But the market is expecting big cut despite evidence to the contrary,,,

5. There will be tightening economic measures in Mainland China with inflation and economic bubble,,, but no one really take them seriously except Tuesday's temporary correction,,,

6. HK index stocks are pushing up, but there are multiple divergences on volume/breadth and index high,,,


Lovely firework we've seen in this afternoon,,, but as you know, when the firework show is near the end, the scene is usually the most spectacular!!!  


P.S. I am just passing by to make a brief comment. The expectation of moderate adjustment remains unchanged,,, actually strengthened by the recent negative fundamental and circumstantial factors,,,[/size][/color]

how moderate will the adjustment be ?

你依家講調整，點調法先？一二千點定五六千點呀？

我覺得會有調整，但應該係好少個種。在短時間然後會見二萬五。

1，上星期Dow Jone big drop，香港一D事都無就知香港依家唔係好受外國影響。

[quote]原帖由 [i]Oldman[/i] 於 2007-9-13 01:02 發表
how moderate will the adjustment be ? [/quote]
Exactly. Small or large adjustment?:wondering::oh:

the worst scenerio is US not cutting interest rate
this is possible because US needs to strengthen dollar to make US asset attractive

[quote]原帖由 [i]ces[/i] 於 2007-9-13 16:57 發表
the worst scenerio is US not cutting interest rate
this is possible because US needs to strengthen dollar to make US asset attractive [/quote]

I think the worst scenerio is US cut interest rate tim....:P

The most likely scenario,,,

1. US cut .25%, HK unchanged (> 80% chance)
2. US unchanged, HK unchanged (10%)
3. US cut .5%, HK unchanged (5%),,, HK cut .25% (3%)
4. US cut .75 (<2%)

Tuesday and Wednesday will be the moment of truth,,, all rumours about US big interest cut or HK to be folllowed WILL BE DISPELLED,,,

Anyway, I had bought 6418 last Friday to hedge my stock holding and prepared for the correction,,, first target 20 day sma (at 236xx), second target 100 day sma at around 22000,,,,

Holding +55% cash [10% 6418] for further action :D

[quote]原帖由 [i]小小力[/i] 於 2007-9-13 17:09 發表
I think the worst scenerio is US cut interest rate tim....:P [/quote]
No, the interest rate cut is expected. Worse is more sub-prime problems surfacing.:lookaround::reading::L

Hold some cash to prepare to buy when adjustment comes.

[quote]原帖由 [i]小花至愛[/i] 於 2007-9-18 02:23 發表
The most likely scenario,,,

1. US cut .25%, HK unchanged (> 80% chance)
2. US unchanged, HK unchanged (10%)
3. US cut .5%, HK unchanged (5%),,, HK cut .25% (3%)
4. US cut .75 (<2%)

T ... [/quote]

for the past few months coincidentally you amd me have been adopting the same viewpoint, thus the same investment stragety

I had reduced 80% of my portfolio in this month

now holds 6923 HSCEI put for hedging

I think US likely -0.25 only in order not to make the dollar too weak

in the worst scenerio, may keep interest rate unchanged

if so market would fall

but still think at least for HKCEI the highest point for this year has not reached yet.

from 2005 till 2007 end may be the best investment season in 10 years.

but 2008 is full of uncertainty

I strongly beleive correction is coming soon.  Between 25000~25500 when HSI reached it.  Will correction 10~15% to 22500~22000 level.

Then rise again to 26000 or higher

a week has elapsed since you first started the topic, the benchmark hsi has just reached its yet another historical height, but still, what you said was indeed quite reasonable. we can only blame for this irrationally volatile market.

[quote]原帖由 [i]3a4b5c6c[/i] 於 2007-9-18 13:06 發表
I strongly beleive correction is coming soon.  Between 25000~25500 when HSI reached it.  Will correction 10~15% to 22500~22000 level.

Then rise again to 26000 or higher [/quote]

that's true

the bullish run doesn't seem to stop till next yr.

yet still, a significant adjustment might be neccessary before a sharp rise at the end of the year

[quote]原帖由 [i]donscheisse[/i] 於 2007-9-18 14:46 發表
a week has elapsed since you first started the topic ... [/quote]
Still too much hot money from China.:(:oh::jaw:

If the stock market can be predicted so easily, there will no losers.  I am glad that there are still people crying everday that big adjustment will come, or even make more disastrous remarks that the market will slide down.  Good!  I am still holding my stocks.

With minor adjutments, the market will keep rising to record high and all such warnings will be seen to be a joke.  Those people will then stop giving out their warnings. This is the time I unload my stocks.

基本因素生變, 美息減幅勝預期, 中短線強烈利好港股.
本週香港不會減, 但十月好大機會减少少息, 實行火上加油!

各位仁兄之Put 輪, short 期指, 熊証, 睇位止賺、止蝕、安樂死  

今次大戶從萬九做好, 我說明在24000前做淡好易死, 但到 245 後大戶乏力要轉身, 調整有機.

我在 247xx - 249xx 買熊仔, 待調整, 暫穫利少少, 但今早也會急走!
似乎在 25500 - 26000 之前, 短期做淡仍然無運行!

白藍黑 、 好難估!!!

[quote]原帖由 [i]mysyu[/i] 於 2007-9-18 13:28 發表
If the stock market can be predicted so easily, there will no losers.  I am glad that there are still people crying everday that big adjustment will come, or even make more disastrous remarks that  ... [/quote]

Brother, I collected recently from 19xxx and 20xxx and hold it until +24000 to take profit,,, and even so I'm looking for a small/moderate adjustment down to around 22000, even at present I hold around 40% stock,,,

I agree that the market always has surprise for us. Your remark maybe correct for some other people, but definitely not for me,,, I never cry for adjustment with or without stocks,,,  

There are numerous signs for correction when I made this post, but the unexpected Fed rate cut can nullify the chance for short-term moderate correction,,, Hold good stocks and take profit when the mad bull is charging la :D:D:D

[quote]原帖由 [i]小花至愛[/i] 於 2007-9-19 08:27 發表


Brother, I collected recently from 19xxx and 20xxx and hold it until +24000 to take profit,,, and even so I'm looking for a small/moderate adjustment down to around 22000, even at present I hol ... [/quote]

This shows exactly what I said before, don't just rely on those stock critics to predict the market based charts and graphs.  Political and economy policies are the main driving forces to the up and down of the stock market.

[quote]原帖由 [i]mysyu[/i] 於 2007-9-19 10:56 發表
... [/quote]
UP UP and AWAY la.:jaw::applause::hamsup::butwiggle:

[quote]原帖由 [i]mysyu[/i] 於 2007-9-19 02:56 發表


This shows exactly what I said before, don't just rely on those stock critics to predict the market based charts and graphs.  Political and economy policies are the main driving forces to the u ... [/quote]

Agree, fundamentals and circumstantial factors are always more important than technical factors/trend,,

But the .5% rate cut is an unexpected factor,,, like all emergency situation, no analysis is needed at present, just follow the flow of MONEY from everywhere to the stock market!

[quote]原帖由 [i]小花至愛[/i] 於 2007-9-19 05:42 發表


Agree, fundamentals and circumstantial factors are always more important than technical factors/trend,,

But the .5% rate cut is an unexpected factor,,, like all emergency situation, no analy ... [/quote]

是否需要高位減持？
還是待回軟才套現？

[quote]原帖由 [i]jimmy1001[/i] 於 2007-9-19 15:15 發表
是否需要高位減持？
還是待回軟才套現？ [/quote]
Even though very high now, can go HIGHER!:'(:$:dizzy:

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