迪克 2007-11-20 04:26
11/20黃金
[size=4]國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)第一常務副總干事利普斯基(John Lipsky)周一聲稱，市場動蕩不應延誤國際社會已經同意的用來解決全球失衡和保證經濟增長的計劃。 如果主要經濟體未能推進改革，可能將威脅到全球經濟擴張。盡管近期的發展令風險上升，如果政策恰當，最可能的結果仍然還是有利的，特別是在主要經濟體中。他補充道，如果未能做到這一點，可能將導致一次更為急劇，且破壞性更加強大的調整，這可能將威脅到擴張。利普斯基指出，目前重要的是這項議程得到充分執行，且確保不讓近期的市場動蕩扭曲或延誤必要的政策調整。
週一黃金繼續下滑，受到基金平倉壓力打擊，加上決乏買盤支持，金價接連下挫。短期現貨需求高峰期過去，而且美元反彈回升，拖累黃金走勢。上周金價由830美元開始下滑，更快速突破800及790美元，而且日元大幅上揚令金價添壓，預期后市仍會繼續向下。
技術走勢方面，黃金目前于795-797美元已見壓力，週一再次大幅下滑，中期升勢已經打破，后市將繼續調整，早前已提及一但金價跌勢確認下破上升趨向線，下調幅度可達40美元，以790美元計，下調目標先看黃金比率0.382，768水平，后市將逐步回調至770美元及750美元。週二支持768,762,752,743，阻力789,795,803,812,818。
[color=Green]短期操作:787沽出，止損791，第一目標774，第二目標767。
短期操作二:下破774沽出，目標5美元，止損3美元。[/color]TOCOM11月19日黃金期貨行情
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合約 昨收 開盤 最高 最低 收盤 漲跌 成交量
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07/12月 2,802 2,813 2,837 2,797 2,797 -5 117
08/02月 2,811 2,821 2,843 2,802 2,807 -4 191
08/04月 2,809 2,831 2,848 2,807 2,809 0 631
08/06月 2,818 2,839 2,860 2,812 2,816 -2 1,252
08/08月 2,823 2,846 2,860 2,817 2,822 -1 7,080
08/10月 2,826 2,857 2,865 2,823 2,829 +3 83,873
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合計 93,144
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注：1.單位：日圓/克；成交量單位：手。
2.最小價格變動單位日圓/克。[/size]
peninsula 2007-11-21 06:27
[quote]原帖由 [i]迪克[/i] 於 2007-11-20 04:26 發表
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)第一常務副總干事利普斯基(John Lipsky)周一聲稱，市場動蕩不應延誤國際社會已經同意的用來解決全球失衡和保證經濟增長的計劃。 如果主要經濟體未能推進改革，可能將威脅到全球經濟擴張。盡 ... [/quote]
Why dropped so much from $840?:o:(:wondering:
hardcat 2007-11-21 12:25
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-11-21 06:27 發表
Why dropped so much from $840?:o:(:wondering: [/quote]
IMHO, the rapidly falling USD sent Gold to $840 in such a short time... and hence gold was overbought at that level.. now that the USD stabilised a bit.. coupled with the recent accelerated unwinding of leverage... the gold was due for a downward correction before going up again... there is a slight catch though, if the unwinding of leverage and credit contraction is bigger than expected, gold might experience a bigger downward move...
gold is in a fundmental bull market, any bigger correction is a good opportunity to buy low, and hold....
expect any USD rally to be shortlived and transitory, there is only one long term direction of USD -- going down and down (or going south, deep south)...
peninsula 2007-11-21 12:27
[quote]原帖由 [i]hardcat[/i] 於 2007-11-21 12:25 發表
IMHO, the rapidly falling USD sent Gold to $840 in such a short time... and hence gold was overbought at that level.. now that the USD stabilised a bit.. coupled with the recent accelerated un ... [/quote]
If I buy gold (LONG position), I need to pay interest as I use leverage tool.:(:'(:oh:
hardcat 2007-11-21 12:49
[quote]原帖由 [i]peninsula[/i] 於 2007-11-21 12:27 發表
If I buy gold (LONG position), I need to pay interest as I use leverage tool.:(:'(:oh: [/quote]
Personally, i dont think it is favorable to short gold (unfavorable odds)... if you dont wanna pay interest, i would rather not participate at all, at least not at this level of gold price....