查看完整版本: A book to read - Crash Proof

A book to read - Crash Proof

Book: Crash Proof
Author: Peter D. Schiff

The book was written 2 years ago. It had around 12 predictions, which around 10 of them came true.
The predictions included:
1) The collapse of the 2 US government semi-owned mortgage companies
2) The recommendation to sell the housing properties in US
3) The buying of Chine shares
.
.
.
The next prediction is the collapse of USD, which may represent gold can reach USD5K/ounce after the big collapse.

Also, it tells how to read the twisted data in the CPI, PPI index, and how to make profit if the predictions come true.

When the book was written 2 yrs ago, people said the book was a joke becoz the housing price in US was in red-hot not possible go down...

have a quick look on the web and reproduce the following from a review written on May 11, 2007...

[b][color=#ff0000]Negatives[/color]

[/b]1. Avoid debt, unless you plan to use the money to make a profit in some way.
2. Get out of the dollar, and out of US stocks.
3. Be wary of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) - the government defines inflation, but it's also the borrower. Schiff says it's like "trusting the fox to guard the henhouse".
4. Think twice about investing in bonds: "[it is] my belief that all governments that issue fiat currency will inflate".
5. Avoid mutual funds, because they add a layer of costs.

[b][color=#009900]Positives[/color][/b]

[b]10 - 30% of portfolio: gold, and maybe also silver. [/b]

Of this, maybe 20 - 50% should be in [color=#009900][b]bullion[/b][/color], some in your direct possession, some held elsewhere. [b][color=#009900]E.g.[/color][/b] [color=#009900][b]Krugerrands and pre-1968 US silver coin; Perth Mint Certificates; GoldMoney.com[/b][/color] (banking in gold).

Other investments in gold could include [b][color=#009900]gold Exchange Traded Funds[/color][/b] (potential risk: false auditing); [color=#009900][b]gold futures[/b][/color] (risk: the firm may buy on margin; also, counterparty risk); [color=#009900][b]gold mining stocks[/b][/color] (risk: potential future speculative bubble).

[b]Rest of portfolio: non-US stocks[/b] - purchased through a broker [i](e.g. Mr Schiff!)[/i]

This is where the broker would make specific recommendations to the client. In general terms, the author recommends a portfolio of non-US shares, maybe 10 -20 in all, in an assortment of companies, sectors, markets and currencies. He likes conservative, high-dividend stocks [i](a key principle of the Dogs of the Dow - see John Downes)[/i] in developed markets - e.g. Canada, Australia, New Zealand. In the shorter term, he thinks the UK and Europe should do better than the US; [color=red]in the long run, Asia[/color].

is that really true???:wondering:

[[i] 本帖最後由 porno 於 2008-9-17 10:53 編輯 [/i]]

The author is very -ve to the US people's consumption behavior, which rely on heavy borrowing (personal or government) for daily spending. The book (and also the author fm Rich Dad Poor Dad) said the social security fund has already been used up.

Although Asia or Australia etc may not be good when the market crash, but they should be better than the US market.

The author is very +ve to gold or related becoz no other assets are safe to be parked.

[[i] 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-17 15:42 編輯 [/i]]

[quote]原帖由 [i]porno[/i] 於 2008-9-17 10:51 發表 [url=http://forum.timway.com/f/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=5283876&ptid=216456][img]http://forum.timway.com/f/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
1. Avoid debt, unless you plan to use the money to make a profit in some way.
2. Get  ... [/quote]
Still buy stocks? Gold may be the only safe haven.:lookaround::quiet::oh: