查看完整版本: 華爾街拖垮港樓市

華爾街拖垮港樓市

[font=新細明體][size=10pt]華爾街風暴蹂躪下，整個亞太區股市急挫，而香港股市往往可以反映半年後的樓市，所以筆者預期未來半年香港樓市會顯回落，其中投資味道較重的甲級商廈和豪宅會是沽售的重點，而港股驟跌對本地民生的影響深遠，香港整體經濟難免要進入衰退期，估計中小型住宅的樓市亦難看好。

早前不少外資基金炒人民幣升值的概念而湧進中港股市和樓市，其中不少實力雄厚的財閥更大手購入核心區全層甲級寫字樓或整幢商廈以及豪宅物業，今日市況逆轉，個別超級美國金融機構已明言會出售固定資產以增加現金，上述類別物業定遭拋售。

外資金融公司因應市況縮細香港業務或削減開支，而裁員或削房屋津貼，均會打擊到近年備受投資者追捧的服務式住宅物業的租值，相信出租率有下調力，租金亦難免下調。

除外資染指的大額投資物業，較民生性的中小型住宅亦會重創，主要原因是香港整個社會對股市的參與性太高，就算沒有炒股，在職人士的強積金亦難免沾上股市，故恆指急跌，整個社會的消費能力及情緒即受重創，各行各業也會呈蕭條局面，經濟不景，市民又有何心情買樓呢？

由於香港金融業佔社會的比重較其他歐洲區國家更重，故影響更大，其實早於上次金融風暴後，特區政府己高調地表示要為香港另尋金融業以外出路，一時又說生化港，一時又謂中藥港，最終還不是走回金融地產的老路，所以上次金融風暴後，香港復甦最慢，估計是次受美國次按所觸發的危機的沖擊也較區內其他國家大。

美國經濟放緩，中國出口肯定會大受影響，中國經濟差，甚麼自由行，港股直通車頓成泡影，沒有強大的祖國的支持，香港經濟還樂觀嗎？樓市表現視乎一個地區的整體經濟表現，假如經濟差，市民的負擔能力弱，加上通脹肆虐，即使息口再低，也難提起老百姓買樓的慾望。

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[[i] 本帖最後由 rickiekkwong 於 2008-9-23 07:19 編輯 [/i]]

[quote]原帖由 [i]rickiekkwong[/i] 於 2008-9-23 15:17 發表 [url=http://forum.timway.com/f/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=5315090&ptid=217509][img]http://forum.timway.com/f/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
體 ... [/quote]
Good. Prices have been too high in HK and Singapore.:(

Good.

It's a re-shuffle of wealth again.

In the financial crisis in 1997, the housing price dropped 50% fm the peak.

Now this mortgage crisis is more serious than the 1997, so I expect the price will drop 60% fm the peak.

香港樓價在無可避免下，相信要下跌10-15%了！　　:o

[quote]原帖由 [i]b4321[/i] 於 2008-9-24 11:25 發表 [url=http://forum.timway.com/f/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=5319674&ptid=217509][img]http://forum.timway.com/f/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
Good. Now this mortgage crisis is more serious than the 1997, so I expect the p ... [/quote]
60% is a bit wild! Maybe 25% la.;P

我認為一般豪宅 (apartments) 應該回落到 HK$8,000-10,000/呎

一般住宅 (普通地點) 應該維持 HK$3,200/呎，市區 location不多於 HK$4,500/呎，才算健康、合理和 有affordability。

我舊年年尾賣�髐@間,今年三月賣埋自住�黧�.一九九六年頭同二零零零年頭入既,無乜肉食!!我緊係想佢跌番�灠�!�鰣輕銢J樓價真係好貴,普普通通都要伍仟幾蚊一呎,打工仔真係好難捱!!:Q

[quote]原帖由 [i]COO[/i] 於 2008-9-26 16:41 發表 [url=http://forum.timway.com/f/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=5332263&ptid=217509][img]http://forum.timway.com/f/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
我認為一般豪宅 (apartments) 應該回落到 HK$8,000-10,000/呎
一般住宅 (普通地點) 應該維持 HK$3,200/呎，市區 location不多於 HK$4,500/呎，才算健康、合理和 有affordability。 [/quote]
So low?:lookaround::wondering:

Well, honestlt speaking, I am a bite on the conservative side. My belief is that we are going to experience a prolonged period of recession (if not depression). Both the US & China economies will be crippled.  

Although some argue that China is less affected like other countries by the US credit crunch, do not forget that massive recall of China's products (food to begin with) from all over the world is going to hurt the importers, exporters and manufacturers. Deteriorated cashflows, inventories (tainted raw material & finished products) write-offs and business disputes are emerging.  It is not difficult to imagine what is going to happen next...

[quote]原帖由 [i]COO[/i] 於 2008-9-27 10:43 發表 [url=http://forum.timway.com/f/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=5336575&ptid=217509][img]http://forum.timway.com/f/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url]
Well, honestlt speaking, I am a bite on the conservative side. My belief is that we are going to experience a prolonged period of recession (if not depression). Both the US & China economies will be c ... [/quote]
Depression is not same as recession.:wondering: