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New ideas in old suits


KITTY POON

Oct 22, 2007           
     
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Reading the minds of Beijing leaders is always a daunting task. Non-Chinese speakers often find themselves lost in a tangle of communist jargon. Native Chinese may also fail to grasp the underlying message even though they know what each word means. Even before his keynote speech to the 17th congress of the Communist Party last week, the party's general secretary and national president, Hu Jintao , was getting a mixed build-up.

The Economist magazine, for example, predicted he would offer little in the way of new ideas, and challenged the party to open itself for a genuine clash of ideas. But that prediction was only partially successful, the observations incomplete.

Although Mr Hu's speech may have seemed conventional, he nonetheless gave the first comprehensive articulation of his "scientific development perspective" theory, which he called a continuation of Marxism and Leninism, of Mao Zedong thought, Deng Xiaoping theories and the "three represents" theory coined by his predecessor, Jiang Zemin . It was also an important extension of old thinking to suit a new era.

After the speech, mainland analysts suggested it implied a policy shift from his previous administration, and a subtle criticism of the relentless pursuit of growth in the Jiang era. If a "scientific" approach is called for, then that itself is a disapproval of the "unscientific" - or unsustainable and single-minded - approach adopted by former leaders.

Both the magazine's view and that of the mainland analysts have some validity. Mr Hu's speech hinted at a subtle change in how he would manage China's steaming powerhouse of economic growth, but dressed it in old ideological suits. If that sounds peculiar, his comments have to be understood in the context of a dispute raging outside and inside the Communist Party over the pace of economic development. For five years, a war of words has pitted sociologists and culturists, on the one hand, against economists on the other. The former, labelled the "new left", call attention to the huge social cost of marketisation and the state's dwindling powers. Their opponents, simply called "the right", advocate continued liberalisation.

The war among scholars spread into the party, and an intra-party fight intensified this year. This time, the intellectual divide was further complicated by ideologies. The "new left" cadres, backing a reformist agenda, armed themselves with the scientific development perspective theory. They called for democracy within the party to remedy its flaws.

As if all this weren't confusing enough, their rivals call themselves "stern reformers", and uphold the principle of social democracy. Both sides claim to be the legitimate heirs of Marxism and Mao thought.

The quarrel has intensified, splitting the intellectual community and undermining the party's unity. Beneath the battles of words are seething conflicts of interests and power struggles. Mr Hu's keynote speech thus became a test, and both sides watched to see where his loyalty lay.

It thus appeared to be a carefully orchestrated move when he called the scientific development perspective a new development of old ideologies. By paying tribute to the old ideologues, Mr Hu shored up his own legitimacy so that he could carry on his own missions.

By confirming his commitment to sustainable development, he sought to walk a fine line between left and right. In the end, he sided with neither while appealing to both.

The lack of sexy phrases and stimulating ideas may have turned many readers away. But the absence of novelty serves a purpose in the context of contemporary mainland politics. In a society so divided, new ideas work better if dressed in old suits. Mr Hu has offered a useful example for many leaders, including Hong Kong's chief executive.

Kitty Poon, an assistant professor at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, is a part-time member of the government's Central Policy Unit

[email]kittypoon@netvigator.com[/email]


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Consensus building the sustainable way to go


LEADER

Oct 23, 2007           
     
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President Hu Jintao did not have it all his way at the Communist Party's 17th congress. While he was re-elected general secretary and army chief, his preferred successor was not anointed by fellow senior leaders, and only one of his two guiding principles for the nation's future direction was enshrined in the party's constitution.

Such setbacks are unusual in the party's history. They are evidence of the new era of consensus-building that is gradually being introduced so that a broader array of opinions can be represented.

Since the People's Republic of China was founded 58 years ago, the words and deeds of the paramount leader have largely been unquestionably followed and enacted by the party faithful. Putting so much authority in the hands of a single person has at times been detrimental to the nation.

China's ever-growing global importance and the resulting economic and social implications meant that this could not continue. Authorities have recognised the importance of transparency and the need for significant stakeholders to participate in the nation's evolution to a developed country.

That Mr Hu has not had all he wanted backed by the 2,200 delegates to the congress shows a significant shift that is in the national good. The mechanisms now in place to make the party more transparent in its decision-making are heading in the right direction.

There were 8 per cent more candidates for positions on the party's Central Committee, compared with 5 per cent more in the last congress five years ago. This is the idea of intra-party democracy that was unveiled last week in action: wider choice and greater openness. Party standing committees will be set up at local levels and the heads of each will have to submit regular reports. Committee views and decisions will be forwarded to the top of the party. People at village level will be able to choose their leaders.

From outside the mainland, this may seem an incremental step, but it is a substantial one for a nation where all the power has been vested in the hands of a few. The moves must be broadened within the party and extended through society. A democratic system that begins at the grass-roots level has to eventually replace the present top-down approach to government.

Consensus building

Democracy is about giving the majority a voice, and Mr Hu has learned this to his disadvantage. While his chosen successor, the head of Liaoning province, Li Keqiang , was among the four new faces elected to the Politburo Standing Committee, it is Shanghai party chief Xi Jinping , the choice acceptable to all factions, who seems likely to succeed him in 2012.

There has always been faction fighting within the ruling party, and this has not been constructive for the nation. Turning to consensus-building is an obvious solution. It also offers a mechanism that is a natural bridge to democratic government.

Since being first elected party secretary in 2002, Mr Hu has advocated sustainable development and putting people first. This has translated into the concepts of scientific development and social harmony - the first of which the party congress added to its constitution and the latter which it rejected.

This may seem a defeat for the president, but the idea of a harmonious society manifested itself in the revised objectives that the party has now set for itself. At the party's last congress, it determined that quadrupling gross domestic product by 2020 was desirable. Mr Hu's line that this should be revised to per capita GDP has won party favour - and this is in line with the theory of putting people first.

Broadly, the party has come round to the consensus that while sustained economic growth must remain its priority, the environment and livelihoods of the people must also be protected to ensure social harmony. That the issues were debated rather than rubber-stamped, as they would previously have been, shows the party's new face. The party has said that it does not want western-style democracy. While its moves last week strengthen the grip of one-party rule, that it has planted the seeds of a more open system of decision-making that more people can participate in has to be welcomed.

This has been termed socialist democracy, but whatever the name, it has to be engendered deeper in the party and society. Media freedoms have to be instituted so that the mainland can be governed with transparency and openness.

Sustainable growth

China is the world's most populous country, has its fourth-largest economy and is the second-biggest exporter. Its phenomenal growth must continue to alleviate poverty and move the nation forward.

Under Jiang Zemin's "Theory of the Three Represents", the party began to admit businessmen as members to reflect the emergence of a new capitalist class in a market economy. It must now continue to evolve by embracing Mr Hu's principle of scientific development to achieve sustainable growth.

Political reforms unveiled and made apparent at the 17th congress of the Communist Party seem small, but nonetheless represent evidence of an opening up. As China further integrates with the global economy, there will be pressure for more changes, both within and beyond the party.

The seeds for success have been planted through consensus-building and transparency. They must be nurtured and given every opportunity to flourish into full-fledged democracy.


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The only choice?


FRANK CHING

Oct 24, 2007           
  



President Hu Jintao emerged from the 17th congress in a stronger position than before, with a mandate for another five years as the party's general secretary and head of the military. His main rival for influence, 68-year-old Zeng Qinghong , stepped down, contrary to earlier reports that he would remain on the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee.

Mr Hu not only emerged in a stronger position as party leader. He also laid the groundwork for his own legacy as a theoretician who made major contributions to the party, as did his predecessors Mao Zedong , Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin . His contribution, the "scientific outlook on development", was included in the party constitution. This follows the party's decision in 2002 to incorporate the contribution by Mr Jiang - the "Three Represents" doctrine - in the party charter, and the 1997 inclusion of Deng Xiaoping Theory.

This means Mr Hu is now all but certain to be included in the pantheon of communist leaders, perhaps at the next congress five years from now, when he will have to step down.

Deng's contribution was the concept of building "socialism with Chinese characteristics" - allowing China to depart from orthodox Marxist doctrine by introducing the market economy into socialism. Mr Jiang's three represents theory paved the way for capitalists to join the Communist Party.

Mr Hu's "scientific outlook on development" calls for comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development with a people-centred approach. The charter was also amended to say that the party would foster the development of the private sector, confirming China's move towards a more capitalistic system.

Since Mr Hu has to retire in 2012, attention has focused on the members of the new Standing Committee. Two new members are in their fifties, which means each is young enough to take power five years from now and serve two five-year terms as the undisputed leader.

They are Xi Jinping , 54, the party secretary of Shanghai, and Li Keqiang , 52, the party secretary of Liaoning province . Indications are that Mr Xi has a slight edge over Mr Li. In the official lineup, Mr Xi's name is listed ahead of Mr Li's. In the voting for Central Committee membership, Mr Xi won 2,227 votes to Mr Li's 2,226.

Mr Hu, in a meet-the-press session yesterday immediately after the election of the new Standing Committee, singled out these two for special attention, reminding assembled reporters that the men were only in their fifties. He also pointed out that they, unlike two other additions to the Standing Committee, were not even members of the Politburo that was elected in 2002. They are leaping directly from the Central Committee into the Politburo's Standing Committee.

There were few signs at the congress of any significant move to greater democratisation, though Mr Hu used the word "democracy" more than 60 times in his speech. It was pointed out that about 8 per cent of candidates for membership in the Central Committee were defeated - a wider margin than five years ago, when it was about 5 per cent. But that would not be considered a substantive move towards democracy in any other country.

Almost 60 years after gaining power, the Communist Party still lacks a system for choosing its top leader. Mao's handpicked successor, Hua Guofeng , was pushed aside by Deng, who eventually grew disillusioned with his own chosen successors and moved them aside - only to settle eventually on Mr Jiang. He also chose Mr Hu to succeed Mr Jiang.

In the 21st century, it is not acceptable for one person to decide who the country's leader will be. Now, with two potential successors on the Standing Committee, the stage may be set for a new ball game, one in which five years from now the party has a choice of whom to pick as its leader. If that should be the case, the party will have to put in place an election system to decide how to choose. Such a development would mark progress not only for the Communist Party, but for China as a whole.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator

[email]frank.ching@scmp.com[/email]


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hina's space team need bringing in from the cold
LEADER

Oct 25, 2007        
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The launch of the moon-orbiting Chang'e I marks another milestone in China's emergence as a spacefaring nation. Named after the moon goddess, the orbiter will be the first in a series of missions to the moon and beyond. Hopefully, it will mark a new stage in the peaceful exploration of space, instead of being another step in a growing space race among nations.

Chang'e's journey to the moon in coming days will test the ingenuity of mainland scientists to the utmost as it circles the Earth several times to gain momentum before being slung on a precise trajectory towards the moon. This involves elaborate manoeuvres far more complex than anything previously attempted by China. The mastery of the techniques will be crucial to interplanetary space travel beyond the moon. The satellite will spend a year circling the moon to map it and beam back geo-chemical data to Earth.

China's latest success ought to be celebrated. But, as with other economic and technological accomplishments, its space programme has raised suspicion, especially in the United States. The shooting down of an ageing weather satellite by a Chinese missile in January has alarmed the US and some Asian countries. There are concerns that space is being weaponised.

To allay fear and develop trust, nations with space capabilities need to work more closely together. Isolating China will only exaggerate the perceived threats. The launch in Xichang , Sichuan , came hours after the US space shuttle Discovery's liftoff for the International Space Station. Despite the station's name, the US has so far denied China access to it. This is shortsighted, because there is no better way for China to prove its peaceful purpose than admitting it into international joint space projects.

In recent years, the moon has regained the attention of space engineers and scientists worldwide partly because of scientific curiosity but also because of engineering and resource interests. An understanding of the moon's evolution will give answers to important questions about the Earth. The moon is also believed to be full of helium-3, an efficient source of nuclear energy if it could be mined and returned to Earth. But the renewed interest has also sparked a lunar race. Last month, Japan beat China by launching a satellite to the moon on a similar scientific mission to Chang'e I's.

China, Japan and the United States have drawn up plans for manned missions to the moon within the next two decades. India and Brazil are also developing an active space programme. Hopefully, the competition will prove more benign than the previous cold war rivalry between the US and the former Soviet Union. An encouraging sign is that, subject to restrictions, space scientists around the world have been able to communicate and share research with each other. This augurs well, given China's express intention for its space programme to gain international exposure for its scientists. For Hong Kong people, it is gratifying to know that local scientists also contribute to the nation's space programme. Four researchers from local universities will help analyse moon data to be returned by Chang'e I. When the Chang'e II mission is launched to land an unmanned rover on the moon in 2012, local university engineers are expected to take part in developing sampling tools.

Since the 1990s, China's space programme has spun off industrial applications important to its economic development. Now, in the interests of peace and scientific co-operation, China ought to be allowed to work more closely with international space agencies.


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Inflation a reality, but we can cushion impact


LEADER

Oct 26, 2007           
     
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As the value of the US dollar continues to fall, so do Hong Kong's hopes of avoiding a period of inflation. For the local economy, which only recently recovered from prolonged deflation, the prospect of rising prices is not necessarily good.

While our domestic economy is always subject to pressures from volatile international markets, the local currency's peg to the greenback deprives us of key weapons to deal with them. The exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar cannot go up or down in line with our economic conditions; nor can we adjust our interest rates as freely as we would like because local rates cannot diverge too much from those set by the Federal Reserve.

Although there is little the government can do about inflation itself, it needs to implement measures already in place, and introduce new ones if necessary, to mitigate inflation's impact on the poor. Low-income families spend proportionally far more on basic needs, such as food and transport, than do wealthier ones.

Already, those living in remote areas but who have to travel to town for work have complained that bus and train fares are too high, even as public transport operators press for higher fares to cover the rising price of fuel. Food prices are rising more quickly than overall inflation, which may surpass 2 per cent by the end of this year.

It does not help that the mainland, our main source of food supply, is also contributing to our inflation. Prices of foodstuffs across the border have shot up due to strong economic growth as well as supply factors. With the mainland's GDP still growing at a double-digit pace - 11.5 per cent in the three months to September - inflation there, which reached 6.2 per cent in September, is expected to keep on rising.

There is a positive side to the fall in the dollar, however. Property owners who were hit by the post-handover market crash will relish seeing the values of their assets finally rising again. Indeed, as the US Federal Reserve keeps on cutting interest rates for domestic reasons, Hong Kong will, sooner or later, have to follow suit, further pushing prices up. But the worry is that easier credit will only make the bubbles that already afflict the Hong Kong and mainland stock markets bigger. Arguably, what Hong Kong needs now is higher interest rates to reduce liquidity. But that is not a feasible policy tool because of the peg.

Over the short term, our services-based economy will become more competitive. Foreign investors, other than those from the United States, will find office space more affordable. But as the falling dollar continues to push up import costs, inflation is likely to rise further and will begin to bite.

As a small but externally oriented economy, Hong Kong always suffers during periods of international financial volatility. Our peg to the US dollar is an anchor of stability, but it means that local monetary conditions are dictated by external trends.

The exchange-rate link is fundamental to the credibility of the government and the city's financial markets. It has delivered "hard" money and imposed a more rigorous economic discipline. The discipline of a fixed-currency regime demands that domestic prices adjust freely without intervention by government agencies. Inflation, in the current circumstances, is the result - and the government must adapt its policies accordingly to cushion its debilitating impact, which will hit the poor sooner but will not spare the rich over time, since what goes up must come down.


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Danger in the details of Regina Ip's vision


OBSERVER
Chris Yeung
Oct 29, 2007           
     
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Former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee has tried to assure people that there is no devil in the details of her blueprint for universal suffrage. Yet, the extra hurdle she has proposed for chief executive hopefuls before they can run in an election is hardly an angelic idea in the eyes of those pushing for democracy.

Mrs Ip is contesting December's Legislative Council by-election. Her proposal would see each chief executive candidate having to gain the support of at least 10 per cent of members in each of the four sectors - that is, business, professional, grass roots and political - in the nominating committee. But critics believe this could easily become a tool to bar candidates deemed unacceptable to Beijing.

Their fears are not unfounded, judging by the experiences of Alan Leong Kah-kit in the chief executive election in April and Anson Chan Fang On-sang, who is also standing in the Legco by-election.

Although Mr Leong managed to meet the nomination threshold by securing 132 nominations from the 800-member nominating committee, none came from the 200-member business sector. Mrs Chan has suffered the same fate: there is a marked absence of prominent names from the business circle on her list of nominees.

Speculation is rife that the central government's liaison office has lobbied business leaders not to lend their support - in both nomination and financial terms - to Mrs Chan.

In response to Mrs Ip's constitutional reform proposals last week, Mrs Chan warned of "devils in the details", and criticised the package as a retrogressive step.

Mrs Ip made an immediate rebuttal on her election website, insisting that "there is no devil in the details". She argued that the additional nomination requirement was to accommodate the interests of different sectors of society. Mrs Ip is not alone in calling for a more stringent nominating mechanism. A similar idea has been floated by pro-Beijing figures, in the name of "democratic procedures".

Superficially, receiving say 10 per cent support from each sector in the nominating body may seem of little relevance.

In reality, the political predicaments of Mr Leong and Mrs Chan in trying to solicit support from the business sector is a graphic illustration of the potential danger of manipulation in elections.

In view of the much-acclaimed pluralism in Hong Kong society, it seems almost unthinkable that credible candidates such as Mr Leong and Mrs Chan could not secure at least some backing from the business sector.

One plausible explanation is that the political pressure for businesspeople to shun the pan-democrats has been so intense that it has forced sympathisers to keep their heads down, to avoid inviting trouble.

The shadow of Beijing looming large over elections is certainly not a healthy - or normal - situation for Hong Kong politics to find itself in.

It is not difficult to understand the thinking behind the idea of the four sectors in the chief executive Election Committee, as laid down in the Basic Law. The sectors can be seen as providing balanced representation under an indirect election system, as the city moves towards universal suffrage.

Arguably, it would also represent a deviation from the spirit of the principle of balanced representation if the mechanism was used as a tool to screen out candidates deemed unacceptable to Beijing.

Hong Kong has thrived on diversity and pluralism. It is not surprising, therefore, that both Mrs Chan and Mrs Ip have lured groups of supporters from the same sectors, such as professionals and the grass roots.

But the seemingly lopsided backing of the business quarter for Mrs Ip highlights the danger of giving each sector the power to screen out would-be candidates.

Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large.

[email]chris.yeung@scmp.com[/email]


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US must consider global impact of fiscal policy


LEADER

Oct 30, 2007           
     
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The decline in value of the US dollar is good and bad for Hong Kong. While the fall boosts our competitiveness with economies that do not follow the greenback, the more it drops, the greater our inflation.

Weighing such positives and negatives is a delicate matter. The foreign companies and talent being attracted to our shores are welcome, as is the money pouring into our stock market and property sector. But the downside is that imports from economies without a US dollar link are increasing in price, putting the most vulnerable in our society at risk. The double-digit inflation we suffered during the 1990s greatly affected the poor and a repeat has to be avoided.

Doing so is not straightforward, given the Hong Kong-US dollar peg. The US dollar may be the global reserve currency and its weakness is causing a measure of anxiety among governments holding it, but Americans are generally unfazed. For them, a poorly performing dollar means a shrinking of America's US$57 billion foreign trade deficit. Exports increase, demand for the goods and services of US companies rises, and more overseas tourists are attracted to the country.

The impact is far wider, however. Many of the records of recent days - new highs for oil and gold, and stock market indices from Hong Kong to Australia to South Korea and beyond - are largely down to US fiscal and political policies.

US President George W. Bush's government is running a record budget deficit, spending far in excess of what it has to hand and paying hundreds of billions of dollars servicing debt. Americans themselves are equally deeply in debt. They have more owing in loans than they have in savings, with the cash tied up in housing or shares. The extent of the sub-prime mortgage fiasco, which is helping drive down confidence in the dollar, is yet to be fully revealed, but the ramifications are severe and global.

US property prices are in decline. With so much of the nation's retail sector based on imports, prices are increasing.

Stock markets rose higher yesterday on the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again. This would be an effort to alleviate the US' economic problems; if Hong Kong were to follow suit, the likelihood of increased inflation here would rise.

Interest rate cuts are short-term solutions. They do nothing about growing perceptions that with the rise of China and India, the US - and in consequence, its currency - is in decline. We need to give this consideration. Delinking the Hong Kong dollar peg to the US dollar is a gradual matter, though: the uncertainty caused by a new fiscal strategy is not something Hong Kong wants or needs now.

Governments the world over put the national interest first and this is what the Bush administration has been doing with its economic policies. Nonetheless, international fears that its currency could soon be in free fall need to be addressed. Balanced current accounts increase confidence in economies and national currencies. Putting in place taxation policies that encourage citizens to save rather than spend are also long-accepted means of boosting financial systems.

Hong Kong is in no position to lecture Washington about running its economy, just as we would not take kindly to being preached to about operating our own. Global reserve currencies are not domestic matters, however, and the US therefore has a responsibility to look beyond its borders when considering fiscal issues.


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Evolutionary path


FRANK CHING

Oct 31, 2007           
     
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Quite naturally, interest in the Chinese Communist Party's 17th National Congress focused on personnel changes at the top for signs about who might be China's next leader. But the congress, which concluded last week, also approved amendments to the party constitution, which shed light on the long-term direction, and the twists and turns of the past. The first party constitution after the communists came to power was adopted in 1956, when Mao Zedong was head of the party. That document made it clear that China was part of the Soviet bloc, saying that Beijing was interested in friendly relations "with all other countries in the camp of peace, democracy and socialism headed by the Soviet Union".

In 1977 - the year after Mao's death - the party, under Hua Guofeng , adopted a new constitution which upheld the Cultural Revolution and said that such revolutions "will be carried out many times in the future". It described the Communist Party as "the political party of the proletariat", composed of "advanced elements of the proletariat", which "leads the proletariat and the revolutionary masses in their fight against the class enemy". Today, the word "proletariat" has disappeared entirely.

Mr Hua was soon supplanted by Deng Xiaoping . Under Deng, the party reversed course, denounced the Cultural Revolution and decided to focus on economic development instead of class struggle. In 1982, a new constitution marked a drastic departure. "Class struggle is no longer the principal contradiction," it declared, contradicting Mao's instruction to always "take class struggle as the key link". Instead, it said, the party would focus on "the socialist modernisation of our economy". It also declared: "The course of world history during the past half century and more, and especially the establishment and development of the socialist system in a number of countries, has borne out the correctness of the theory of scientific socialism."

Unlike other constitutions, which are meant to be permanent documents that are rarely amended, the party charter has been regularly revised since it was rewritten in 1982.

The 13th party congress in 1987 was significant, with Zhao Ziyang as party secretary. That constitution introduced the concept of China being in the "primary stage of socialism", when many capitalistic things would naturally be present. Even though Zhao was purged two years later, in the aftermath of the Tiananmen Square crackdown, that concept remains in the latest constitution. In 1997, when Jiang Zemin was party leader and the Soviet Union had collapsed, the claim about scientific socialism was dropped. "Deng Xiaoping Theory" was added, along with Marxism-Leninism and "Mao Zedong Thought" as the party's "guide to action".

In 2002, when Mr Jiang stepped down, the constitution was revised to introduce a new concept, that of the party's "chief representative". Thus, it said that Mao was the chief representative during his lifetime, followed by Deng and Mr Jiang. The party's "guide to action" became "Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents". The latter was Mr Jiang's contribution to socialist theory, which justified admitting capitalists into the party.

This year, with Hu Jintao as party leader, the party constitution has been modified again to include his theoretical contribution, the "scientific outlook on development".

Reflecting the Hu administration's "people-centred" approach, the constitution also says that development is "for the people, by the people and with the people sharing its fruits". The concept of "building a harmonious socialist society" was also added.

Five years from now, when Mr Hu is scheduled to preside over his last party congress, it is highly likely that his theoretical contributions will be added to the party's ever-expanding "guide to action". So where is the party heading? Pragmatism will continue to be its hallmark, with each new leader depicting pragmatic policies as further development of socialist theory. After all, Deng - the ultimate pragmatist who said it didn't matter what colour a cat was as long as it caught mice - is now praised as a theoretician. Mao must be spinning in his crystal coffin.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator

[email]frank.ching@scmp.com[/email]

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Sins of the past
After 60 years of silence about his role in surgical killings, a former Japanese medic spoke out, writes Harumi Ozawa

BEHIND THE NEWS

Nov 01, 2007           
     
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More than 60 years had passed, but Akira Makino still suffered nightmares about Filipino hostages and the injections that rendered them unconscious. Every time he woke up to the flashbacks of horrific killing scenes, he shut his eyes tight and tried to turn his mind away from something he no longer wanted to think about.

But Makino, 84, also felt he had to speak out about his wartime experiences to as many people as possible during the final year of his life.

"These were nothing but living-body experiments," Makino said as he sat on a bench wearing just his pyjamas at a hospital in the western Japanese city of Osaka, making some of his last comments before he died earlier this year.

"My captain combat-surgeon often showed us human intestines, and said this was the liver and that was that and so on," he said. "He did that to train us. The captain said that if he died, we would have to take up a scalpel to conduct the operations instead of him."

Makino, a low-ranked medic deployed to the southern Philippine island of Mindanao during the final years of the second world war, began making his statements on Japanese war atrocities in public last year. He was regarded as the first former Japanese soldier to have been stationed in the Philippines to speak of vivisections on hostages. The remarks caused outrage amid simmering friction between Japan and the countries it invaded over its wartime history. Nationalist internet sites launched a campaign branding Makino a liar.

But Makino said what he experienced was not systematic atrocity, but rather a glimpse of soldiers' desperation during the disorganised, last-ditch struggle of a nation on the verge of defeat.

It was one year before Japan's surrender when Makino landed on Mindanao in August 1944. He was assigned as a medic in the 33rd coast guard squad of about 20 soldiers who were in charge of detecting enemy aircraft. His squad joined a landing force of 1,500 troops on the Yamato, once the world's largest battleship, which US bombers sank later in the war.

"The Yamato was such a huge ship that it could not easily find a suitable port," he said. "So the ship anchored in the middle of Manila Bay and we dispersed to a variety of destinations in the Philippines."

Soon after arriving at the Japanese military base at Zamboanga on the western tip of Mindanao, Makino and his unit were cut off from headquarters,with the situation growing worse by the day. They received no military supplies or orders, let alone medical packages. The main enemy facing the small Japanese squad were the guerilla bands formed by Muslims from the local Moros tribe, who constantly threatened their station, he said.

He said almost all the hostages they captured were Moros. "We were supposed to keep them alive in captivity, but it was no problem if we `disposed' of them, in the beheadings the Japanese have become infamous for."

He remembered at least 50 hostages being killed, "including those who got this", he said, moving his hand to imitate a sword cutting off a head.

The frail old man recalled that many others were kept alive as human guinea pigs for his superior, the combat doctor, who wanted to show young medics like himself how to conduct surgical operations.

"We first anaesthetised them - we usually used injections or oxygen gas," he said. "Then they passed out in a few seconds."

The doctor would tell him to watch as he sliced open a hostage's stomach, a scene that Makino said made him so ill he couldn't eat or drink for days afterwards.

But Makino said he eventually became accustomed to what he had to do. "I was desperate," he said. "I didn't want to do anything like that if possible. But I had to follow the orders of my superior as a military man, otherwise I'd have been beaten up."

He could not put a definitive number on how many of the 50 people the unit killed were vivisected or how many of the operations he took part in. He did say he could never forget and felt profound guilt over the way the bodies were handled.

The Japanese made Moros dig holes in the ground, he said, and then they hurled in the bodies with their stomachs still open. "The mud got in all over the human stomach. My captain said there was no need to close the wounds because that would just be a waste of suture thread."

Makino's confession revived memories of imperial Japan's "mad scientist" Lieutenant General Shiro Ishii, who led the infamous Unit 731 in northeastern China, where the Japanese made their colonial base of Manchukuo and conducted germ warfare tests on prisoners.

Ishii is believed to have attempted the mass production of biological weapons by testing deadly germs such as anthrax, dysentery and cholera on prisoners of war, mainly Chinese, and dropping plague-carrying fleas and rats on their villages.

But Makino said his unit in the Philippines did not have any organised plan and that it did not test plague germs. "It was a one-off thing. We didn't take data or anything."

Another veteran, one of only a handful surviving from the Philippine battlefield, said the final days of the war were so desperate they did whatever they thought necessary just to survive.

Yoshihiko Terashima, 86, a former naval chief commander, said he did not commit any living-body experiments himself but said: "That could have easily happened."

In a separate interview he said: "It must have been natural for military doctors to come up with the idea of using whatever they had for try-outs in such destitute situations."

Mr Terashima contrasted the situation in the Philippines with that in northeastern China, then known as Manchuria.

"There [in Manchuria] Japan was winning the war. During the time of Makino [in the Philippines] we were losing it [the war]."

The Americans landed on the main Philippine island of Luzon in January 1945 and within six months declared victory. An estimated 218,000 Japanese were killed in the battles on Luzon alone. Like many Japanese soldiers, Makino and Mr Terashima fled into the jungles.

At his home in a Tokyo suburb, with cabinets full of war documents and a rolled-up map of the world lying on the floor, Mr Terashima recalled the destitute conditions he faced while fleeing from US attacks.

"When you [are] holed up in a cave at night, you see huge rats crawling up on the faces of dead bodies, eating the eyeballs," Mr Terashima said. "So we took an iron helmet to catch them and ate them."

In later years, both men repeatedly returned, separately, to their former battlefields to collect the remains of Japanese soldiers. Makino made the trip more than 10 times over the years, taking everyday supplies such as rice, pencils and clothes to needy residents of Mindanao. "I've done it out of a quest for redemption," he said.

Makino said the past haunted him for years, so much so that he hesitated to marry. It took him 10 years before he married a friend's sister, but said he could not talk to her, or anybody, about the surgical killings committed by his unit.

"It was cruel, too cruel to talk about it to a woman. My wife might have thought I was such a cruel person. That's what was in my mind. While she was with me, I just didn't want her to know about it," said Makino, who kept a monochrome photo of her on his bedside at the hospital before he died in May.

Makino said his wife's death more than three years earlier freed him to talk publicly about the experiences that haunted him.

"You have to talk when you know you have done something [you feel] guilty [about]. We lost the war because we deserved it," Makino said with bitterness. "We didn't have enough soldiers, enough arms nor enough bullets."

Agence France-Presse


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Healthier lifestyles a matter of life and death


LEADER

Nov 02, 2007           
     
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The finding by an authoritative study that obesity substantially increases the risk of developing cancers certainly gives us much to think about. We knew that fast food, a sedentary lifestyle and poor nutrition would lead to a bulging waistline and, consequently, health problems, but not that the dangers were so great.

These are findings that cannot be taken lightly. The recommendation that we eat more fruit and vegetables and less red meat while getting regular exercise is sound advice.

There is nothing new in this message. Health authorities, doctors and teachers have been trying to convince us for some time that we need to live healthier.

Statistics do not show that we are paying attention. One study last year found that 41 per cent of Hong Kong people were overweight or obese, up 3 per cent on 2004; another determined that four in every 10 sported a waistline that exceeded recommended standards.

Hong Kong is not alone in this problem. Long office hours, computers, television and fast food are among the reasons that people the world over are getting fatter.

The implications for public health systems are enormous. Being overweight or obese means greater susceptibility to disease - and, as the latest and most comprehensive study yet done also reveals, cancers.

Families are particularly vulnerable. Parents have to deal with their obese child's medical treatment, while a child may have to cope with the early death of a mother or father due to chronic disease.

Changing habits to slim down citizens will take time, but with strong government leadership, it can be achieved. Smoking in public places is increasingly frowned upon thanks to a concerted campaign spearheaded by a ban on the practice in restaurants, for example.

Government schemes are already under way to engender healthier eating choices at school and in restaurants. Bolder initiatives and more imaginative programmes are necessary, though.

The latest obesity study plainly shows why urgent action is needed. Put bluntly, it is a matter of life and death.


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Narrow focus


KITTY POON

Nov 05, 2007           
     
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Despite its popularity among viewers around the world and its success at the Venice Film Festival, Ang Lee's spy thriller Lust, Caution has suffered two setbacks. First, it was rejected by organisers of the Oscars as Taiwan's entry for best foreign film because it did not have enough Taiwanese working on the movie. Then it was rejected by the Hong Kong Film Awards - for having too few Hongkongers.

Lee's misfortune tells a story. It suggests that film directors, movie stars and corporations investing in filmmaking have long surpassed national boundaries, while bureaucrats around the world still hopelessly operate within narrowly defined localities. Lee's setback merely exemplifies the clash between the increasingly globalised entertainment industry and outdated government bureaus and film associations operating under old rules.

The international aspect of the film was at the crux of Lee's problem: it is a joint venture between two United States and two Taiwanese film companies.

Adding to the identity issue, the film stars Hong Kong actor Tony Leung Chiu-wai and mainland actress Tang Wei . Other supporting roles are performed by actors from Taiwan, the mainland, Hong Kong and the US. Lee himself is from Taiwan but spends the bulk of his time in the US. The scriptwriter is Taiwanese, the music composer French and the cinematographer Mexican.

The unfortunate Lee is a pawn in the hands of film associations which continue to seek protection behind regional boundaries.

The internationalisation of the film industry is a rapidly developing and increasingly irreversible trend. Brothers is a recent release featuring mostly Hong Kong actors, but it also enlists the support of Wang Zhiwen, a renowned mainland artist. Another upcoming showing, The Sun Also Rises, was financed by Hong Kong's Emperor Motion Pictures and stars Joan Chen, an American-Chinese, Zhou Yun and Kong Wei, both mainland actresses, along with award-winning Hong Kong actor Anthony Wong Chau-sang. The film was directed by Jiang Wen, an actor-turned-director, also from the mainland.

The globalisation of film production is not difficult to understand. Joint ventures allow the coalition of cash-flush investors with the most talented artists. Such projects not only help maximise profits, they also help the actors showcase their talents in different markets. Consumers welcome such developments as it gives them the chance to enjoy performances of the best artists from around the world.

But such projects create problems for bureaucrats. The Sun Also Rises was one of Hong Kong's candidates for its entry in the best foreign film category at the 2007 Oscars. But it eventually lost out to the gangster thriller Exiled, reportedly in view of its cosmopolitan identity. The mainland has entered The Knot, a wartime romance, in the best foreign film category after considering several possibilities. Yet The Knot was made with Taiwanese money, and stars Taiwanese artists such as Vivian Hsu and Han Chin alongside mainland artists.

It is obvious that the bureaucrats and managers of film associations lag far behind in the new direction being taken by the movie industry. They must find new strategies or face being sidelined by the turn of events. Yet, the mainland's film association seems to have grasped this fact and has relaxed its rules to accommodate this irreversible development in the industry.

This year, veteran Hong Kong actress Carina Lau Kar-ling took home the award for best actress at the mainland's Golden Rooster Awards. However, the inward-looking mentality has not gone yet. Lau had to share the award with mainland actress Yan Bingyan - proof, if it is needed, that provincialism continues to stand in the way of a globalising entertainment industry.

Kitty Poon, an assistant professor at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, is a part-time member of the government's Central Policy Unit

[email]kittypoon@netvigator.com[/email]


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Fuel's dirty face
The consequences of the coal boom are severe, both in the shadow of the plants and further afield, writes Michael Casey

BEHIND THE NEWS
Michael Casey
Nov 06, 2007           
     
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It takes five to 10 days for the pollution from China's coal-fired plants to make its way to the US, like a slow-moving storm. It shows up as mercury in the bass and trout caught in the Willamette River in the western state of Oregon. The pollution increases cloud cover and raises ozone levels. Along the way, it contributes to acid rain in Japan and South Korea and health problems everywhere from Taiyuan , in Shanxi province , to North America.

This is the dark side of the world's growing use of coal. Cheap and abundant, coal has become the fuel of choice in much of the world, powering economic booms on the mainland and in India that have lifted millions of people out of poverty. Worldwide demand is projected to rise by about 60 per cent by 2030, to 6.9 billion tonnes a year, most of it going to electrical power plants.

But the growth of coal-burning is also contributing to global warming, and is linked to environmental and health issues ranging from acid rain to asthma. Air pollution kills more than 2 million people prematurely every year, according to the World Health Organisation.

"Hands down, coal is by far the dirtiest pollutant," said Dan Jaffe, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington who has detected pollutants from Asia at monitoring sites on Mount Bachelor in Oregon and Cheeka Peak in Washington state. "It's a pretty bad fuel on all scores."

The dilemma facing the mainland is evident in places such as Taiyuan and the surrounding province, the top coal-producing region. Almost overnight, coal turned poor farmers in the city of  3 million into Mercedes-driving millionaires, known derisively as baofahu or the quick rich. Flashy hotels display chunks of coal in their lobbies and sprawling malls advertise designer goods from Versace and Karl Lagerfeld.

Real estate prices have doubled, residents say, and construction cranes fill the skyline.

A museum in Taiyuan celebrates all things coal. Amid photos of smiling miners, coal is presented as the foundation of the mainland's economic development, credited with making possible everything from the railway to skincare products.

"Today, coal has penetrated every aspect of people's lives," the museum says in one of many cheery pronouncements. "We can't live comfortably without coal."

Yet the corn lining a highway outside the city is covered in soot. The same soot settles on vegetables sold at the roadside. Thick, acrid smoke blots out the morning sun. At its worst, the haze forces highway closures and flight delays.

Taiyuan, dubbed the world's most polluted city in the 1990s, is no longer thought to be the worst, thanks to various efforts including phasing out coal-burning boilers. But the level of pollutants in the air remains five to 10 times higher than levels in New York or London. Residents say they see blue skies on fewer than 120 days a year.

They shrug wearily when the talk turns to pollution, fearful that speaking out could get them in trouble. But when pressed, city dwellers' complaints tumble forth and expose a community held hostage by the soot.

Residents seal their windows to keep out the dirty air. Parents are warned not to let their toddlers  play outside for fear of coal dust. Fruit and vegetables must be washed in detergent.

"I'm worried about my children," said a woman who lives in the shadow of a power plant and fertiliser factory. She would only give her surname, Zhang. "We worry about everything. If you get sick seriously, you will die."

Many complain of chronic sore throats and bronchitis, and there are cases of lung cancer and pulmonary fibrosis. A study by researchers from Norway's Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research found that Taiyuan's pollution raised death rates by  15 per cent and chronic respiratory ailments by 40 to 50 per cent.

"I feel terrible and I'm coughing all the time," said William Li, a retired engineer from Taiyuan. His father died of lung cancer and his son has tracheitis, an upper respiratory condition. "The coal produces electric power that we send to other provinces. But we are left with the pollution."

Apart from health problems, there is growing concern about the damage being wrought on some key heritage sites. A few years ago, the Leshan giant Buddha in Sichuan province started to weep. Or so some local people imagined when black streaks appeared on the rose-coloured cheeks of the towering 7th-century carving hewn into the sandstone cliffs.

The culprit was the region's growing number of coal-fired power plants and acid rain. Over time, the Buddha's nose turned black and curls of carved stone began to fall from its head.

"If this continues, the Buddha will lose its nose and even its ears," said Li Xiaodong, a researcher who has studied the impact of air pollution in Sichuan. "It will become just a piece of rock."

More than 80 per cent of the mainland's 33 UN-designated world heritage sites, including the Leshan statue, have been damaged by air pollution and acid rain, mostly from the burning of coal, according to Xinhua.

"The level of pollution that China is creating will be devastating to these monuments," said Melinda Herrold-Menzies, a professor of environmental studies at Pitzer College in Claremont, California.

Mainland officials are starting to acknowledge the downside of unbridled development. Qiu Baoxing, the vice-minister of construction, blamed the devastation of historic sites on "senseless actions" by local officials in pursuit of modernisation, the China Daily reported in June.

"They are totally unaware of the value of cultural heritage," he said, likening the destruction to that of cultural relics during the Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s and the Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1976.

About 1,200km to the north, clouds of black dust coming off coal trucks have damaged the Yungang grottoes, a world heritage site in the heart of China's coal belt. Professor Herrold-Menzies expressed surprise that caves with such historical and archaeological importance would lie so close to "coal mines and an industrial nightmare of a city".

The 250 caves hold more than 50,000 statues of Buddha dating to the 5th century, their heights ranging from less than 2.5cm to 17 metres.

As visitors weave in and out of the caves, the damaged statues are easy to pick out. Their red, blue and yellow paint is faded, and they look as if they are wearing a black trench coat or skirt.

Under pressure to clean up major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, particularly in the run-up to next year's Olympics, the central government is turning increasingly to provinces such as Shanxi to meet the country's power demands.

"They look at polluted places such as Taiyuan and say it's so polluted there it doesn't matter if they have another five power plants," said Ramanan Laxminarayan, a senior fellow at Resources for the Future, an American think-tank that found links between air pollution and rising hospital admissions in Taiyuan.

"I visited these power plants and there is no concept of pollution control," he said. "They sort of had a laugh and asked, `Why would you expect us to install pollution control equipment?'"

The mainand is home to 20 of the world's 30 most polluted cities, according to a World Bank report. Health costs related to air pollution total US$68 billion a year, nearly 4 per cent of the country's economic output, the report said. Sheng Huaren, a senior Chinese parliamentary official, said last year that acid rain had contaminated a third of the country. It is said to destroy crops worith some US$4 billion every year.

"What we're facing in China is enormous economic growth, and ... China is paying a price for it," said Henk Bekedam, China's WHO office chief. "Their growth isn't sustainable from an environmental perspective. The good news is that they realise it. The bad news is they're dependent on coal as an energy source."

But the costs go far beyond China. The soot from power plants boosts global warming because coal emits almost twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas. Researchers from Texas A&M University said research showed that air pollution from China and India had increased cloud cover and major Pacific Ocean storms by 20 per cent to 50 per cent over the past 20 years.

Mercury, a byproduct of coal mining dispersed via waterways, is another major concern. "It's a global problem and right now China is a source on the rise," said Harvard University professor of atmospheric chemistry and environmental engineering Daniel Jacob. "If we want to bring down mercury levels in fish, then we have to go after emissions in East Asia."

A fifth of the mercury in the Willamette River came from China and other foreign sources, said Bruce Hope of the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality. Pregnant or nursing women who eat the fish put their babies at risk of neurological damage.

China has closed some polluting factories and says it will retire 50 gigawatts of inefficient power plants, or 8 per cent of the power grid, by 2010, according to the Pew Centre on Global Climate Change. The government has also mandated that solar, wind, hydroelectric and other forms of renewable energy provide 10 per cent of the mainland's  power by 2010, and ordered key industries to cut energy consumption by 20 per cent.

President Hu Jintao , in a speech to a key party congress last month, promised a cleanup. But the mainland has fallen short of its national targets for using energy more efficiently, and coal remains a major energy source.

"Everyone knows coal is dirty, but there is no way that China can get rid of coal," said Zhao Jianping of the World Bank. "It must rely on it for years to come, until humans can find a new magic solution."

Robert Schock, director of studies at the World Energy Council, said that coal, which is cheap and abundant, would remain a crucial source of energy for many years.

In Shanxi, the authorities have pledged to close 900 coal mines and dozens of makeshift factories that process coal for the steel industry, according to Xinhua. The Asian Development Bank is providing more than US$200 million in loans to improve air quality in the province, through programmes to shift to cleaner-burning natural gas for household heating and a demonstration project to capture methane, a greenhouse gas released in coal mining.

Associated Press


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Voucher scheme: the first step to a healthy system


Michael Somerville
Nov 07, 2007           
     
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For several years, there has been a lot of debate about reshaping our health care system. But there has been only limited progress and not enough priority given to the task. Now, at last, the focus of recent months is bearing fruit, with clearly defined measures on both structural and financing reform, as outlined in the chief executive's policy address. This is a major step forward.

What a shame, therefore, that a really imaginative and potentially groundbreaking initiative has been poorly received in some circles, especially among legislators - on the face of it for all the wrong reasons.

I refer to the medical voucher pilot scheme for the elderly, which has been rubbished as a meagre effort, notwithstanding that there is already a 95 per cent government subsidy on public health services for the elderly.

Few would argue that the elderly, and especially the elderly poor, do not deserve priority in sharing the fruits of Hong Kong's prosperity. But that is a totally different issue.

The commitment to increase government expenditure on medical and health services, from 15 per cent to 17 per cent, is coupled with proposals for supplementary private financing. Together, this could generate additional annual spending close to HK$10 billion. That adds up to a major new commitment.

Allocating extra funds is one thing, spending them wisely is quite another. As the British experience has shown, throwing money at health care before ensuring that it will be well spent generally makes matters worse.

To date, nearly all government funds have been paid to the providers of public hospital services and public preventative care. They have not been used to promote freedom of choice for patients or greater emphasis on private-sector care. Nor has the current method of almost totally subsidy in financing done anything to encourage individual responsibility in health care.

There is now a widespread consensus that this needs to change, over time, and that a new emphasis on "money following the patient" is the right way forward.

This fundamental change is not easily achieved, and is made more complex by the big divide and lack of practical interface between the public and private sectors. As well as redirecting the way money flows within the system, it will involve substantial changes in attitude by both patients and care-giving professionals. It will necessitate far greater sharing of information than is currently possible - hence the high priority for developing a community-wide electronic health record.

Experience overseas has clearly demonstrated that a major and successful tool in achieving such a change is the use of incentive mechanisms targeting the buyers of  services, the patients, and also the providers.

This is a new approach for Hong Kong and it is right that our first pilot project should be limited to a specific sector. It should be judged not by the amount of money that has been committed but by the benefits it can bring. In this case, they are likely to be substantial.

They include more choice, wider services, better access to primary care and some relief for our overstretched public health services.

Furthermore, in the medium term, the pilot scheme should provide valuable experience for a much wider network of incentives to transform our health care system from one founded in curing a patient to one driven by prevention and multi- disciplinary primary care.

In short, the medical voucher pilot scheme merits our wholehearted support. By all means let's press for an even greater sense of urgency and perhaps a shorter time frame in which to assess progress and possible expansion. But let's not effectively destroy it by turning it into a charity handout. Don't sink the ship by blowing it up before it has left port.

Michael Somerville is chairman of the health care committee of the Business and Professionals Federation of Hong Kong



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A barrel of truth about oil supplies


Gwynne Dyer
Nov 08, 2007           
     
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If a diplomat is "an honest man sent abroad to lie for the good of his country", as author and diplomat Sir Henry Wotton once said, then oil industry executives used to be the business world's equivalent. The big international companies were chronically optimistic about the extent of their reserves, and state-controlled oil companies were even more prone to exaggeration. But now we have the spectacle of oil companies telling the truth about oil supplies - or at least more of the truth than usual.

The occasion was last week's Oil and Money conference in London, and the most spectacular truth-teller was Christophe de Margerie, chief executive of the French oil company Total. Last year his predecessor, Thierry Desmarest, caused a flutter in the industry by predicting that world oil output would peak around 2020. This year, Mr de Margerie said that "100 million barrels [per day] ... is now in my view an optimistic case". He was referring to the International Energy Agency's estimate that world oil output would reach 116 million barrels per day by 2030, and the slightly more optimistic US government prediction that it would reach 118 million barrels per day by then.

Even these acts of faith are really a forecast of crisis, as calculations based on current trends (like a 15 per cent annual growth in Chinese demand) suggest 140 million barrels per day will be needed by 2030.

The implication of Mr de Margerie's remarks is that the crisis is coming a lot sooner than that. World oil output is nearing 90 million barrels per day now, but it is never going to reach 100 million. "Peak oil" may be just a few years away, or it may be right now. (You will never know until after the fact, because it is the point at which global oil production goes into gradual but irreversible decline.)

Peak oil was first forecast by a US geologist, M. King Hubbert, who noticed that the curves for oil discoveries and oil production were a very close match, but with a lag of 30 to 40 years between the two curves. At that point, in 1956, Hubbert was director of research for Shell Oil, and his research focused on American oil production.

Oil discoveries worldwide peaked in the 1960s, so Hubbert's own forecast was that peak oil production worldwide would arrive in the 1990s. The discovery of two giant new oilfields in the 1970s (probably the last two) in the North Sea and the Alaskan North Slope pushed that date further forward, however. One of Hubbert's successors as chief of research at Shell, Colin Campbell, subsequently calculated that global production would peak this year.

The recent surge in the oil price, which may see it reach US$100 a barrel in the near future, is largely a mirage caused by the collapse in the value of the US dollar. But the longer-term trend, which saw the price rise fivefold between 1999 and 2005, was driven by the tightening supply situation as demand raced ahead while production did not.

It will get a lot worse if Mr de Margerie is right, and he almost certainly is.

Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45 countries



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Hunger pains


PETER KAMMERER

Nov 09, 2007           
     
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Global warming has us all in such a bind that governments are doing some crazy things to placate the worried masses. I would even go so far as to say that a few are committing crimes against humanity. Now, before anyone takes umbrage at this comment, please note that it is not an original sentiment. The originator was the UN's special rapporteur on the right to food, Jean Ziegler. In New York, on October 26, he said: "It is a crime against humanity to convert agriculturally productive soil into soil which produces foodstuffs that will be burned [as] biofuel."

Are biofuels a crime against humanity? For a few years now, officials and scientists the world over have been telling us that oil supplies are shrinking, fossil fuels are polluting the atmosphere and causing temperatures to rise, and that the future lies in energy from corn, soya beans, sugar cane, rape seed and whatever other vegetation is on hand to convert into fuel.

The US and European Union have been so adamant that biofuels are the way forward that they have put in place target dates by which all petrol must contain a double-digit percentage of biofuels. Credits and subsidies are being handed out to farmers.

Hidden by the roar of approval for such schemes have been voices warning about a few fundamentals that the politicians have neglected to talk about. For instance, there is not enough land on Earth to grow the crops to make the amounts of biofuels needed, or that farmers will switch from growing food for the globalised world and instead opt for the more lucrative alternative to oil.

The 2 billion people in the world who live in poverty - 850 million in hunger - have first-hand experience of how poorly thought-out biofuel schemes have been. Less corn, rice and wheat for food means shortages and markedly higher prices.

Western nations do not have enough land to meet their biofuel needs, so companies are moving into Asia, Africa and South America, forcing people off the land. Rainforests are being cut down so that palm oil and sugar cane can be grown. The crops are sucking up water.

Hundreds of millions of people have been affected and many face hardship, hunger and even death. Far from saving us from global warming, some of the practices in its name are worsening it.

This, Mr Ziegler contended, was a crime of the worst kind. He called for a five-year moratorium on biofuel production to allow for an international rethink, so that a clearly defined strategy using the best crops and growing methods could be put in place. Mr Ziegler did not go that extra step and suggest governments at fault should be charged and put on trial. I will.

The worst offender is US President George W. Bush's administration. He knows full well that the US exports corn to the developing world for food. Yet he agreed to give US farmers - who already receive subsidies - another financial benefit if they use the cereal for biofuel production instead.

At least 30 per cent of America's corn crop is now grown for biofuels. Unsurprisingly, there has been an almost 50 per cent rise in the price of corn. Because it is also used as grain for cattle, beef prices have risen sharply as well.

Biofuel demand and increased transportation costs have, according to the UN, been some of the factors that have also led wheat to double in price and the cost of rice to increase by 20 per cent. That such staples now cost more has helped cause food prices to rise 18 per cent in China, 13 per cent in Indonesia and Pakistan, and at least 10 per cent in India, Russia and Latin America, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

There are 11 international texts defining crimes against humanity, each differing marginally in their definition of the various crimes and the legal contexts. Broadly, though, the term has come to mean any atrocity committed on a large scale.

Knowingly endangering the food security of some of the world's most vulnerable people, as the US and EU have done, surely ranks as such an offence. The leaders responsible should face justice for the crimes they have committed.

Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor

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The price of attracting new political talent


OBSERVER
Chris Yeung
Nov 12, 2007           
     
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There is never a good time to propose a pay rise for legislators. And, given the public's generally negative image of our lawmakers, the idea of raising their salaries and introducing new benefits now has been greeted with a lot of doubt and scepticism.

It doesn't help that the proposal comes on the heels of an annual report last week by a watchdog group highlighting the dismal record of some Legislative Council members, who have repeatedly been absent from meetings or often abstained during voting. Indeed, with this evidence, even sympathisers for the lawmakers' plight would have difficulty making a case.

However, fair-minded people do agree that legislators are not paid enough. They currently receive a monthly salary of about HK$58,000, with no fringe benefits such as gratuities or a pension.

So, a Legco subcommittee has proposed that their monthly pay should rise to about HK$92,000 - the minimum salary for directorate-grade officials. Subcommittee chairman Patrick Lau Sau-shing has suggested that they should be paid HK$110,000. That figure is based on the salary originally envisaged by the government for an assistant minister.

Under the administration's plan for two extra tiers of political appointees, the monthly salary for the post of political assistant (formerly assistant minister) will be between HK$104,340 and HK$163,963. Undersecretaries will be paid between HK$193,775 and HK$223,586 a month.

Debate about where to peg legislators' pay, in relation to the political appointment system, will be inconclusive. That is because there are no easy, objective criteria to benchmark lawmakers' pay and benefits.

But it is fair to say that there is an unreasonable gap between the pay of Legco members and that of political appointees and senior government officials. It should be borne in mind, too, that the post of political assistant is largely targeted at young, third-tier members of political parties who do not stand a good chance of getting elected to Legco.

The negative implications of unreasonably low levels of pay for legislators are obvious. True, being a lawmaker is more than just a job. It is also a public service and, as such, the rewards cannot be measured solely in monetary terms.

Raising lawmakers' salaries and benefits will not necessarily draw a pool of better-qualified people into politics.

It can be argued, however, that the unattractive pay could further alienate people who may be considering a career in politics. It also sends the wrong message to society; that legislators do not deserve more money than they currently earn.

Much has been said about the dearth of political talent in Hong Kong and the importance of creating more opportunities for people to take part in politics.

If Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen is sincere about grooming new talent, raising the salaries of district and legislative councillors to a decent level is an easy first step.

In the long-run, more needs to be done to help create an environment that is conducive to the emergence of additional full-time legislators and district councillors.

There is no denying that pay is only one of the deterrents for those considering a political career. Under the current system, the power of legislators to keep the executive authorities in check is significantly limited.

Looking to the future, talented and committed individuals will only enter the world of politics if they are convinced that their participation will help bring about a better life for Hong Kong's citizens.

Society and the government can do their part to create more favourable conditions for politicians to serve the people efficiently and effectively. And, if they prove to be unworthy of their rewards, they can always be voted out of office via the ballot box.

Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large.

[email]chris.yeung@scmp.com[/email]


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Equality denied


LAURENCE BRAHM

Nov 13, 2007           
     
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At 9pm on September 21 in Beijing, Chaoyang district police cordoned off the popular Sanlitun bar district near the diplomatic compounds. They then proceeded to round up any black people in the area, handcuffed them and herded them into detention. Anyone who questioned why they were being treated like animals, without rights, was beaten up. Diplomats' children and international students were caught up in the race-based round-up, and people were hurt in the process.

The foreign diplomatic community was alarmed. It occurred just minutes away from the doors of their embassies, and less than a year before the start of the 2008 Olympics - when China is supposed to show the world how civilised it is. People were being rounded up like cattle, regardless of what nation they were from, and indiscriminately beaten as part of a sloppily executed investigation into Nigerian drug dealers.

China's leaders should realise that such indiscriminate sweeps are not in the nation's best interests so close to the Beijing Olympics. Such action does not show the nation's best side to the foreign media. If police in the Chaoyang district want to do something about drug dealing, they should shut down its plethora of brothels, where crack cocaine is big business.

When a number of diplomats raised concerns about unwarranted police abuse affecting the diplomatic zone and their families, the Foreign Ministry just denied that the incident had ever happened. That is despite the fact there were a number of local and international witnesses, including journalists.

Why would it do this? One problem is that when mainland authorities investigate any matter, the organisation concerned investigates itself. The probe begins at the top, and continues layer by layer - each protecting the others. So, in the case of the alleged police abuse in Sanlitun, the officers assigned to the case will believe their own people's accounts, and report as much to higher authorities like the Foreign Ministry.

Clearly, the central government needs an independent body to investigate abuses at all levels of all departments. Local abuses are protected through local protectionism. This has become the new meaning of "Chinese characteristics". There are signs that the problem has spread like a cancer through the nation. Still, no one expected it to explode in the heart of Beijing's diplomatic community.

It is very easy for a perceived race-based round-up to be interpreted as "racist", and the story to be spun as an extension of Chinese chauvinism and nationalism, clearly not the image China wishes to portray to the rest of the world. The police abuses in Sanlitun cannot be ignored by the international community, mainly because the government clearly chose to ignore the reality. Someone at the Foreign Ministry should read the Vienna Convention of 1961, which enshrines the principle of "diplomatic immunity". Clearly, though, diplomats and their children should realise, after this incident, that Beijing's police force either does not understand this principle - or doesn't care about it.

Many wonder whether the Foreign Ministry would have responded differently if it had been citizens from a member of the Group of Eight nations who were rounded up. Does China see all people as equal? China's officials, from President Hu Jintao down, like to repeat the slogan: "All countries are equal". Indeed, given its tragic history of foreign "spheres of influence" and the Japanese invasion, China has a right to demand equality. But it also has a responsibility to stand by such a principle.

That begs the question of whether China wishes to use its economic clout to serve as a voice for developing countries. Or is it only saying what these leaders want to hear in order to secure energy resources, as some have accused it of doing in Africa? Many people feel disappointed that China has not stood up for developing countries' interests more in international forums. Moreover, diplomats in Beijing of those same developing nations feel let down when the Chinese government fails to protect the rights of their citizens, especially when they are victims of officially sanctioned racial abuse.

Laurence Brahm is a political economist, author, filmmaker and founder of Shambhala Foundation



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Tougher curbs needed to cool economy


LEADER

Nov 14, 2007           
     
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Evidence that inflation is worrying the central government is to be found in the timing of Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to Beijing's poor on Monday. It came two days after a stampede to buy cut-price cooking oil at a Chongqing supermarket resulted in three deaths and many injuries, and a day before yesterday's release of last month's inflation figure. The consumer price index was up 6.5 per cent on October last year, a decade high, following similar rises in the two previous months.

The main driver was again soaring food prices, which hit the poor hardest. Promises by Mr Wen to rein in food prices by increasing supplies are unlikely to bring early or significant relief. Higher prices can no longer be laid entirely at the door of short-term factors such as blue-ear disease in pigs, floods and high feed costs. Structural forces within a high-growth, overheating economy are also making their presence more widely felt. This has been evidenced by rising food prices generally in recent months and the 3.2 per cent rise in last month's producer price index for manufactured goods.

The government is right to be worried. Inflation is a danger sign, indicating that incremental macroeconomic measures aimed at ensuring that development is sustainable in the long term are not working. This is also shown by the failure of the measures to slow the double-digit growth rate or cool rampant stock and asset markets. Higher prices for staples such as pork - up 70 per cent since January - and cooking oil have serious implications for the poor, and therefore for Beijing's overriding goal of social harmony and stability. Soaring global oil prices are only just beginning to have an impact on the mainland economy and its insatiable demand for energy. The recent 10 per cent price rise in the cost of fuel at the pump has yet to feed through to producer and consumer prices.

Beijing's macroeconomic and monetary measures have had temporary effects at best. Growth shows no signs of abating and a record October trade surplus does nothing to ease trade tensions with the United States. Given that a one-off revaluation of the yuan is unlikely, the government needs to take more decisive domestic measures to cool the economy.


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Quality counts


CHRISTINE LOH

Nov 15, 2007           
     
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Macau, Asia's casino town, isn't everyone's cup of tea, just as Las Vegas is not all things to all people. It is not very different from Disney theme parks. Despite its fame, there are plenty of people who have not rushed there. This is why Hong Kong officials don't have to be so nervous about competition from its neighbour.

That is not to downplay Macau's rapid development and success. After all, Macau was always a gambling town. It's just that now it is on a much larger scale. With China's economic liberalisation, many more people are allowed to travel outside the country, and even gamble, which has enabled Macau to expand its casino facilities with US investments.

As a result, copies of Las Vegas-style gaming establishments have sprung up; enormous in scale, loud in style and unseen in Asia until now. Today, people who like to gamble have a lot of choice in Macau, and they will have even more choice in the future, as more casinos and hotels are built.

As with Las Vegas, part of the business is to attract shows and conventions. For those of us - the vast majority - who do not gamble, there is really nothing to get us into the casinos except curiosity, which is usually satisfied after one visit.

Nevertheless, we may still go to Macau to watch a special show, dine in one of the many restaurants, and to spend a night there. This adds, not subtracts, to the attraction of living in Hong Kong. In just the past fortnight, Macau has hosted a famous international singer, and a convention of mobile-phone service operators.

While government officials lament the competition from Macau, they might start by examining what Hong Kong is doing and should do. Hong Kong also plays host to many entertainment shows and conventions.

Much of the convention and exhibition business in Hong Kong is controlled by the Trade Development Council (TDC), a public-sector body. It operates the Convention and Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai and organises trade shows.

Private-sector entrepreneurs have been muttering for years that they have trouble getting space. Thankfully, the AsiaWorld-Expo facility near the airport has introduced more capacity and a measure of competition.

If officials want to quickly add convention and exhibition space in Hong Kong, isn't the quickest and cheapest way to enlarge AsiaWorld-Expo, which has already set space aside for expansion? The current expansion of the Convention and Exhibition Centre was never really a good solution because the Wan Chai waterfront is already very congested. When more facilities are squeezed into the area, things will only get worse. In other words, the site is "full".

Now, the TDC wants to build another large venue on the waterfront. It is easy to understand why it wants a site nearby; it would be easier to manage. Officials appear sympathetic to the idea - despite the fact that, in town planning terms, there is no capacity left along the waterfront.

As I have noted, there is an alternative that makes sense. Indeed, officials need to revisit why they didn't make AsiaWorld-Expo bigger in the first place, as this may tell them something about the short-sighted approach to their decision-making.

Nevertheless, there is a limit to the amount of convention space and number of hotel rooms Hong Kong can add. However, we can be selective about the kind of business we compete for. We need to remember that not everyone wants Las Vegas-style facilities.

Hong Kong needs to be cool headed about how to retain and attract premium businesses, because we are able to provide top services. Let's not overlook the fact that Hong Kong's economic activities are in fact diverse, unlike those of Macau and Las Vegas. We have a choice about what kind of events and what type of customers we want to attract.

We have a lot going for us. It has taken us decades to be able to provide consistent high quality, and that is the strength we should bank on.

Christine Loh Kung-wai is chief executive of the think-tank Civic Exchange

[email]cloh@civic-exchange.org[/email]


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A Europe in denial over US economic links


Melvyn Krauss
Nov 16, 2007           
     
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The fact that America's economy is slowing is bad news for Europeans, regardless of claims that their economy has successfully decoupled itself from the United States.

Decoupling is an idea that is based on bad economics - and on some Europeans' reluctance to accept the fact that their short, but sweet economic expansion is also coming to an end.

True, the US market has become less important for European exports as Asia's trade significance has grown for Europe. So what? Trade is just one of many linkages between the US and European economies.

In today's interconnected global economy, uncertainty about the US economic outlook increases one day and Dutch consumer confidence, for example, takes a tumble the next.

The links between Europe and America are, frankly, much more complex than the advocates of decoupling appreciate. The US Federal Reserve, for example, is aggressively cutting interest rates to forestall a possible recession.

As a consequence, the euro is rising not only against the US dollar, but also against Asian currencies, whose central banks intervene in the foreign exchange markets to fix their currencies' value against the dollar.

This damages European exports to both the US and Asia. Reduced European dependence on America's export market can hardly protect Europe from the effects of the US economic slowdown if the euro appreciates as much against the Asian currencies as it has against the US dollar.

The decoupling argument also assumes that recession in America has no effect on Asia. This is nonsense. Asian income will certainly decline if Asians export less to the US - and this, in turn, will reduce Asian imports from Europe.

So, Europeans should not be tempted to think they are somehow "decoupled" from America's foibles and woes. Until recently, many Europeans thought they were insulated from the US housing and mortgage crisis.

Decoupling arguments, whether applied to relations between Europe and America or Europe's financial sector and the rest of the economy, should be seen as having a single purpose - to deny the very real threats to the continued expansion of the European economy.

Some of this, no doubt, is wishful thinking on the part of economically unsophisticated people. Others have a special interest.

After all, a strong economy makes it easier for the European Central Bank hawks to sell rate rises. It makes it easier to sell stocks and other investment vehicles. It makes it easier for politicians to sell their policies, themselves, and their parties.

But ordinary Europeans should not be fooled. The very existence of decoupling arguments is a warning that they should be concerned about the continuing robustness of Europe's economy.

Special interests would not be peddling such dubious statements if they felt confident about the economy's future.

Melvyn Krauss is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Copyright: Project Syndicate


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No pain, no gain
264 days to go
OLYMPIC COUNTDOWN
Peter Simpson
Nov 18, 2007        
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Spare a thought today for British Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell and pray that her frayed nerves hold out for the next 1,713 days until the opening of the 2012 London Games.

As the minister - who was last week on a fact-finding mission to Beijing - sat down to dinner with foreign correspondents at the British Embassy last Monday night to hear their concerns about press freedom in China, her Olympic watch back home was going up in smoke ... literally.

Fire broke out at derelict warehouse on the proposed Olympic green in east London, sending a black plume of smoke across London's iconic skyline, inspiring headlines writers at the British tabloids, perpetually poised to pounce on the beleaguered minister.

Jowell planned to do a live interview with a British camera crew from the steps of the ambassador's residence after coffee, to outline how her meeting went with Beijing Olympic counterpart Liu Qi, the head of Bocog.

But her advisers said it was not a good idea, what with the 2012 preparations seemingly ablaze for reasons then unknown.

After a decade of trying to spin the British media this way and that - and losing badly - Jowell's ruling Labour Party can smell cunning media juxtaposition a mile off.

The flames back in London were fuelled further when more highly flammable material was poured on to Jowell's red-hot Olympic file a few days later.

The British media went into mocking, scolding, wagging-finger and tongue-lashing mode, after it was revealed the London Olympics would cost a whopping ¢G9.3 billion (HK$148 billion) - an over-spend that exposed what one politician described as "the most catastrophic piece of financial mismanagement in the history of the world". The admission means the final cost is more than double the original bid figure.

Jowell also has a vast pride of feral cats and a collective of irate vegetable gardeners blocking development on the London Olympic site to contend with.

Both groups are protected by the rule of law and have the backing of Britain's gnashing media pack.

The questions over the cats' future dominated a recent popular BBC current affairs programme called Question Time; worried members of the studio audience demanded answers from the Government.

"We have a lady who is allowed to sleep on the Olympic site because she is part of the Cat Rescue Charity - and already 174 lactating or pregnant cats have been taken from the site and delivered to good homes," Jowell said in Beijing.

The minister is used to controversy. She unwittingly became the centre of a media scrum called "Jowellgate" in early 2006 when her then husband, David Mills, was embroiled in alleged money laundering and tax fraud in Italy and linked to then Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi.

She was investigated by both the government and by the media because of a potential clash of interest between her personal life and ministerial duties. She was cleared of any wrongdoing, and last year got a divorce. As culture minister, she went on to court various policy controversies before being made Olympics minister.

To date, there is little the UK public doesn't know about the Olympics chief.

The Chinese, however, - and the world - are allowed to know only that her Beijing 2008 peer, Liu Qi, has a an MA in iron smelting; is a professor of engineering; was once mayor of Beijing; is a member of the political bureau of the 17th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee; and is secretary of the Beijing Municipal CPC Committee.

His Olympic high points are widely publicised by the state propaganda machine, yet you'll never know about his mistakes.

He is just another smiling technocrat in a suit promising to deliver the best games ever. And the Chinese are inclined to believe him, if not publicly give their support.

Yet despite the soaring bills and compensation to be paid to dispossessed vegetables growers, tabloid headlines, allegations and probes, the British public also backs the under-fire Jowell - or at least supports her Olympic vision.

Despite a year and more of controversy, the UK public support for the Olympics is still high, latest polls suggest.

"That's something [positive] at least, as you get whacked everyday about something or other in our media for failing to do this or that," said Jowell.

As she dined, Jowell listened to the concerns of the Foreign Correspondents Club of China.

Tangible media freedom remains elusive on the mainland, despite all the promises, she was told, despite a relaxation of media rules - overseas journalists and their Chinese assistants are still routinely harassed, imprisoned and generally hindered as they try to enjoy the pledges by the Chinese in the name of the Olympic Charter.

It looks increasingly likely the 2008 Olympics will fail to deliver the changes many - including the IOC - had hoped for.

But Jowell disagrees. She thinks many legacies will be left behind in China - including greater media freedom, and subsequent government accountability and transparency.

During her meeting with Liu, she said she warned him: "Media freedom is like a genie. Once you've let it out of the bottle, it's then very hard to put it back in again."

She then added: "I said it was my hope, and the hope of many people around the world, that this will be a new era of press freedom that was precipitated by the Olympics.

"He replied ... by referring to the greater transparency seen at the recent 17th Communist Party Congress.

"[Liu] said nothing that led me to think he was going to look at reversing the changes that have taken place . . . and is nothing more than sincere in ensuring Beijing honours its commitments.

"You can be as staged-managed as you like. But if the substance is not measurably there, then you fail in your obligations. China gave commitments . . . but the commitments that you make when you become a host city are not negotiable."

However, Jowell called for modest expectations from Beijing 2008, as the Olympics has only so much "leverage".

"It will not solve every human rights contravention and abuse that China practises. But what the Olympics can do . . . is produce progress,' she said.

Does Jowell secretly day dream of a London governed along Beijing government lines - one where the actions of its rulers are rarely called into questions, and obstacles like feral cats and residents on Olympic sites are bulldozed out the way without fear of a media-informed public backlash?

As smoke began billowing across east London 600 miles away and headlines writers started rubbing their hands in glee, the beleaguered British Olympics minister offered no hesitation in her retort.

"The government in the UK gnash their teeth every day at the way the press use their freedom. But it's better than the alternative, I can tell you," she said.


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Kevin Sinclair's Hong Kong
A veteran SCMP reporter, Kevin examines the good, bad and ugly sides of life in the city. E-mail him at [email]kevin.sinclair@scmp.com[/email]
KEVIN SINCLAIR'S HONG KONG

Nov 21, 2007        
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From the tarmac at Chek Lap Kok, Brian Butt Yiu-ming casts his eyes onto the rearing peaks of Lantau and his saddest memories.

In August 2003, a Government Flying Service Eurocopter on a routine medical evacuation mission crashed a few minutes after taking off to pick up a sick person on Cheung Chau. The pilot and aircrewman aboard were killed.

Four years later, the controller of the Government Flying Service remembers his proudest moment. He saw 20 of his fliers receive bravery medals at Government House for risking their lives rescuing 91 people a year earlier from a wild typhoon.

"I felt like a proud father," recalls the man who has headed the service for 11 years.

In a very brief announcement recently, the government said Mr Butt would be taking earlier retirement, starting in March next year. The veteran airman with more than 30 years of service leaves the official aviation unit in a superb state. But much more needs to be said apart from "arrangements are being made to fill the vacancy".

With a mere 220 staff, two long-range fixed-wing aircraft and seven helicopters, the service is a small but vital element in the city's security and economic structure. It allows us to cast a vast shadow in the field of protection over most of the South China Sea.

Every time the aircrews take to the skies, even on the most routine of missions, they dance with death. They are our saviours in the skies and make us proud.

Nobody is more aware of this than Mr Butt, which is one reason why he is stepping down earlier than necessary.

"I've got the best of jobs," he messaged me yesterday from London, where he is collecting on behalf of the service a major international bravery award from the Guild of Air Pilots and Navigators.

"I manage a team of true professionals who are devoted and motivated and I'm also able to fly as an operational pilot."

There has been a lot of speculation about why he is leaving when he could serve up to four more years. Some rumours talk about eight senior staffers retiring or resigning in the past year.

Mr Butt muses that he has chosen the time to step down; the service has a strong and sustainable succession plan in place, he adds.

"There is a Chinese saying that I habitually tell my colleagues," Mr Butt says. "As aviators, I tell them we must not be a frog sitting in the bottom of a well. You cannot see the sky."

Pilots can scan the far horizons when they do training with airmen on visiting warships from Britain, France, America and other nations. There are particularly strong links, naturally, with mainland military and civilian aviation services.

Within government, the service is noted as an agency with extremely high levels of morale. Comradeship is extraordinary, especially at the sharp end where the pilots and aircrew risk their lives in often horrifying and almost unbelievable conditions.

Imagine being 200km off the China coast in a full typhoon dangling from a cable above a 20,000-tonne vessel pitching and rolling in a force-10 gale trying to persuade terrified seamen one by one to put themselves into unfamiliar tackle that will lift them to safety.

The unforgiving deck is rising and crashing the equivalent height of a five-storey building in the unforgiving fury of the open sea. This is raw courage. It is part of routine life for this group of quiet young Hongkongers.

It is this routine vigilance and constant taut training that makes people, including myself, writhe in fury when thoughtless members of the public misuse the service.

That is a sin. Yes, a sin! It is sadly becoming more common. A bunch of ill prepared hikers find themselves stuck on a lonely mountain hiking track after dark.

They have no torch, no maps, no equipment. They are on a recognised path but do not know where to go. They want a lift home so they call 999 and ask for a helicopter as if they are in Nathan Road wanting to go to a karaoke bar.

These and other shameful people put extra strain on an admirable government lifeline that was set up to rescue people in need and to provide an air-sea rescue set-up that is the envy of much of Asia.

After decades of service, Mr Butt is about to take his hands off the cockpit controls. They will be taken up by a new generation of aviators whom he has helped nurture, train and discipline in a unique role.

We owe them our gratitude.



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A pall hangs over China's pre-Olympic growth
Joseph Quinlan
Nov 23, 2007        
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While financial markets remain focused on the swooning US dollar, sky-high oil prices and the ongoing credit crunch in the United States, another market-rattling problem could be brewing in China.

Many investors expect some type of post-Olympic economic slowdown next year, as mainland infrastructure spending trails off and activities related to the run-up to the Games wane. A pullback, however, could come sooner rather than later.

A pre-Olympic slowdown may be on the cards if the government is forced to act aggressively to reduce the level of pollution in and around Beijing before the Games.

Because of the Olympics, mainland China has worked hard to go green during the past few years, spending billions of dollars on a host of environmental initiatives.

Around Beijing, a number of polluting industries have been either relocated or refitted with more energy-efficient technologies. Coal-burning plants have been converted to cleaner fuels, and more stringent vehicle-emission standards have been instituted. Sizeable funds have been pumped into Beijing's public transport facilities. As a result of these and other measures, there are tangible signs of Beijing going greener.

However, doubts persist about the nation's environment, and for good reason. The challenge before it is Herculean considering that China is home to 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities, while as much as 10 per cent of farmland is polluted.

Meanwhile, China is close to surpassing - or has already surpassed - the US as the world's largest contributor of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, a dubious honour that no nation wants.

Against this backdrop, the UN issued a report last month claiming that high levels of air pollution were a "legitimate concern" for anyone participating in the Games. The International Olympic Committee has also expressed concern about air quality and has gone so far as to say that some events may have to be rescheduled. More importantly, there are even signs that the Chinese government, after initially downplaying pollution fears, has come around to acknowledging the urgency of the problem.

In Beijing, speculation is mounting that the government may mandate the closing of numerous factories in and around the capital for up to two months prior to the Olympics.

It is also expected to ban more than 1 million cars from the capital's streets before and during the Games, and construction activity is expected to be scaled back sooner rather than later ¡X again, all in the name of improving air quality.

To what extent these measures slow the pace of growth remains anyone's guess. However, there is little doubt that, should the government mandate a two-month, pre-Olympic reduction in industrial output, the general economy will feel some of the pain.

In the end, the more the mainland struggles to raise its air quality and improve its environment, the greater the potential for more draconian measures in the months leading up to the Olympics. The event is simply too big, too important and too symbolic to risk any sort of glitch or, worse still, embarrassment.

Hence, if the air does not start to improve by the spring of next year, leaders may have no other choice but to slam on the industrial brakes.

Such a scenario would stun a global financial community long accustomed to annual economic growth of 10 per cent or more on the mainland.

A pre-Olympic slowdown could result in a deflationary shock to the global commodity markets, triggering an abrupt and unanticipated downturn in commodity prices. If that happens, real growth in many high-flying commodity nations will decelerate, undermining global economic growth in the process.

Joseph Quinlan is chief market strategist for Bank of America Capital Management and a Pacific Council on International Policy adjunct fellow



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Shifting winds may cloud Beijing's patriot Games
Ian Bremmer
Nov 26, 2007        
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When the International Olympic Committee awarded Beijing the 2008 Summer Games in July 2001, the announcement ignited wild celebrations across the country. The Communist Party hoped to use the Games to showcase the country's emergence as a dynamic, modern nation. But, as China's leaders begin final preparations for the Games next August, they may be wondering if hosting the event was such a good idea after all. They have significant reasons for doubt.

The mainland's senior leaders always closely monitor spontaneous public expressions of nationalist fervour, fearful that shifting winds might blow an unwelcome storm in their direction.

Of course, what they hope is that the Games will channel these energies towards national solidarity, which will allow the leadership to deliver its people a moment of achievement and patriotic glory.

But, the Olympics will also bring international scrutiny of the nation's weaknesses at a delicate time in its development. The world already knows of China's success and its attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment, but few outsiders have seen the steep price the country is paying for its new prosperity.

The most obvious signs of that cost flow through the mainland's waterways and contaminate its air. Runaway growth and development have left about 70 per cent of its lakes and rivers severely polluted, many unfit for human use of any kind. Indeed, nearly half a billion Chinese lack access to clean drinking water.

But air quality will prove the more embarrassing problem. Television coverage of athletes gasping for breath will hardly provide Beijing with the signature Olympic image it had in mind. Growing international anxiety over climate change and other environmental hazards will ensure such issues receive considerable media coverage.

There is also the risk that the Games will become a political circus, as the international spotlight generates irresistible opportunities for public protest. China's leadership has demonstrated many times that it can quell domestic dissent, but the unique scale of the Olympics will require round-the-clock vigilance.

The Games will generate significant foreign-policy risks, as well. In Taiwan, the outgoing president, Chen Shui-bian, is stirring the independence pot, knowing the Olympic spotlight will limit Beijing's ability to respond forcefully.

Then there is the matter of how the Games will be received in the west. Since 2001, the mainland has increasingly become the focal point of much anxiety in the developed world. Huge bilateral trade deficits, accusations that Beijing keeps its currency undervalued, and a rash of defective and dangerous exports have fuelled a protectionist backlash in the US and Europe.

China, too, has changed since it "won" the 2008 Games six years ago. The party leadership has become more self-assured in its growing international role, but its ability to manage the pace of change at home has become more uncertain.

In 2001, then president Jiang Zemin hoped the Games would herald China's arrival as an industrialised power. But his successor, Hu Jintao , has focused on the damage that has come from unrestrained growth.

Mr Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao have also championed a more "harmonious" society, because they understand they can no longer neglect the growing wealth gap, social tensions, environmental and public health problems, and the Party's tenuous relationship with the less advantaged people.

As China's leaders scramble to address these challenges, will they still relish the idea of providing an international audience with front-row seats? How they look back on the Games once the confetti is swept from the streets is far from certain.

Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group and a senior fellow at the World Policy Institute. Copyright: Project Syndicate



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Money and power talk - more than ever today


Philip Bowring
Nov 27, 2007           
     
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"There has been a gentrification of triad society." It was a stark assessment of Macau by former Hong Kong policeman Steve Vickers, who now heads the security and investigation agency International Risk. Mr Vickers cited undocumented gambling visits by mainland officials to launder illegally obtained cash, the appearance of murdered bodies along the nearby Chinese coast and graft charges against senior government figures as examples of the worsening situation.

Perhaps the situation is now beginning to turn around as a result of the trial of former transport and public works minister Ao Man-long. Whatever the trial result, the depth of the problem is obvious from the sheer number of charges and the identities of those companies and individuals named in the allegations. Beijing is clearly keen to see a cleanup, but whether one can be achieved is another matter, given the involvement of so many mainland officials and firms with the Macau gambling and entertainment industry.

Of course, Macau has always had some of these problems, a natural outcome of an economy so dependent on gambling, loan sharking and sex. But Hong Kong must not become too complacent about the potential for the gentrification of sleaze, as those with money or assumed connections to power become able to ignore the law.

From small beginnings such habits can easily grow. I could hardly fail to notice the apparent unconcern both for the law and the interests of ordinary citizens last week on Wyndham Street in Central, close to both Government House and the Central Police Station.

On three successive evenings I noticed that, outside a new entertainment establishment, a desk had been set up, manned by receptionists and bouncers. This occupied at least half the narrow pavement. And, on an adjacent road, ignoring large "No Parking" signs and a bus stop, several expensive vehicles had been parked.

On one occasion, I approached the staff and complained about the obstruction on the pavement. I was told to mind my own business. There were, I was told, "very important people inside".

So there we have it. The police can hardly be unaware of the situation. Nor can the bus company, whose drivers and passengers are so inconvenienced by the obstructions. Somebody high up must have told the police not to interfere with these continuing breaches of the law, and behaviour which has potentially placed pedestrians in danger.

Pandering to the self-importance of the rich and powerful is not new. But it seems to be getting worse. Last week also saw what was supposed to be a high-profile sail through Hong Kong harbour of a replica of the three-masted sailing ship The Bounty. Made for the 1984 movie The Bounty, the vessel, previously based in Sydney, has been acquired by Hong Kong Resorts International.

Discovery Bay ferry crews and local volunteers were given training in the complexities of hoisting and managing some of the 19 sails of an 18th-century vessel so that it could make a suitably impressive debut. But, alas, the invited dignitaries didn't have time for a real sail. So, The Bounty sat broadside spewing diesel fumes at Pier Three in Central, invisible to all but those in nearby buildings. Speeches were made about boosting tourism but a large media attendance was not reflected in the coverage of a singularly unphotogenic event.

Hong Kong Resorts International has set up the Zheng He foundation with a view to eventually build a replica of the great Chinese sailor's flagship, believed to have been three times the length of The Bounty. But, given events last week, one has to wonder whether The Bounty replica will ever be seriously sailed. That would require spending money on acquiring an experienced crew and maintaining the sails and rigging, rather than allowing it to become another party boat to be motored around Hong Kong waters.

Philip Bowring is a Hong Kong-based journalist and commentator


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Do the right thing


FRANK CHING

Nov 28, 2007           
     
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The November 15 white paper on the mainland's political party system, which emphasises the role of the eight so-called "democratic parties", comes at a historically appropriate time. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the anti-rightist movement, during which the leaders of these minor parties were denounced, persecuted and purged.

In 1956, Mao Zedong launched the "Hundred Flowers Campaign" in which intellectuals were encouraged to speak up and criticise the Communist Party. They were assured that there would be no reprisals.

However, the next year, Mao reneged on his promise and cracked down on those who had spoken out, saying that all he was doing was "luring snakes from their holes".

There then followed a nationwide campaign to seek out and denounce so-called "rightists", who had vented their dissatisfaction at the communists. Hundreds of thousands of people were purged.

Among the prominent victims was Zhang Bojun, then minister of communications and chairman of the Chinese Peasants and Workers Democratic Party, one of the eight "democratic parties". He was classified as the "No.1 rightist" by Mao and stripped of his ministerial post.

Another major victim of the purge was Luo Longji, a founder of the China Democratic League - another of the "democratic parties" - who had been minister of the timber industry.

In 1981, five years after Mao's death, the party issued a "resolution on certain questions" in the party's history that held Mao responsible for the Cultural Revolution. However, it skipped lightly over the anti-rightist movement, saying simply that there were "serious faults and errors in the guidelines of the party's work". No doubt the party was more concerned about the victims of the Cultural Revolution - who were Communist Party members, after all - than victims who were members of the "democratic parties".

Now that 50 years have gone by, it is time for the Communist Party to openly apologise to these eight political parties and compensate the victims or their descendants.

It is good that, this year, Wan Gang of the political party China Zhi Gong Dang has been named minister of science and technology, and Chen Zhu , who is not a party member, is now minister of health. But the Communist Party should explain why it took 50 years to appoint such people to high office and why it purged their predecessors.

In 1978, after his return to power, Deng Xiaoping convinced party members at a key meeting that they should make economic development, rather than class struggle, their main focus. And he put forward the guiding principle to "emancipate the mind, seek truth from facts, and unite as one in looking to the future".

At a talk to the Central Party School in July, the current party leader, Hu Jintao , again gave top priority to emancipation of the mind.

Next year is the 30th anniversary of Deng's crucial guideline, and the party should demonstrate that it is truly adhering to this principle by conducting a thorough reappraisal of the anti-rightist movement.

Clearly, however, it is not ready to do this. It still preserves Mao's image and legacy, and does not allow public discussion of his mistakes. This is, no doubt, because too many other people would be implicated. Mao, after all, did not act alone. Deng was his hatchet man in the anti-rightist movement, although he did try to make amends later in life by posthumously rehabilitating some of the victims.

But, as long as the Communist Party is reluctant to face its own past truthfully, others will have difficulty believing that it is different from the party of 50 years ago, and that the views of the leaders of the "democratic parties" will be given credence.

To begin with, the Communist Party must abandon the requirement that all other political parties have to support its leadership. As long as this remains the case, there is no chance that other parties will feel comfortable about expressing their views truthfully.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator


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The impossible American dream


Robert Samuelson
Nov 29, 2007           
     
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Few phrases are more abused than the "American Dream". The standards for achieving it have become so open ended and expansive that, inevitably, we must fail. Does it mean becoming a homeowner? Enjoying increased living standards? Having "opportunity"? Rising above your parents' class? Achieving economic security? Or all the above - and more?

It's a mushy concept that inspires endless debates. What's lost is the bedrock reality that we Americans are more prosperous than at any time in our history. But the selective and highly critical reading of economic and social trends distorts our vision. Consider, as a case in point, a report from the Economic Mobility Project, a group established by the Pew Charitable Trusts.

"The dream that one can rise up from humble beginnings and achieve a comfortable middle-class living ... transcends racial lines," the report begins. "But is this a reality for black and white families alike?" Well, no, it concludes. The study compared the adult incomes of whites and blacks whose parents were middle-aged in the late 1960s. As adults, only 31 per cent of the black children born into middle-income families had inflation-adjusted incomes exceeding their parents' at a similar stage. Yet, 68 per cent of the comparable white children had higher incomes than their parents. Somehow, the report said, middle-class black parents couldn't protect their children from downwards mobility.

The message was that the already small black middle class is in eclipse. The reality, however, is different: since the 1960s, the black middle class has steadily expanded.

Although blacks' economic status lags behind that of whites, the advances are still sizeable. In 1972, only 6.2 per cent of black households had incomes exceeding US$75,000 in inflation-adjusted "2006 dollars"; in 2006, that figure was 16.8 per cent. Over the same years, the share of non-Hispanic white households with incomes above US$75,000 went from 18.4 per cent to 33.8 per cent. Yet, in 1972, the ratio of whites to blacks in this income bracket was three to one; now it's two to one.

Reconciling these apparent contradictions is easy. In the late 1960s, the black middle class was tiny. The group cited represented only 8 per cent of black children. Whatever happened to them has been overwhelmed by the gains of other blacks.

The high degree of intergenerational economic mobility is Pew's most interesting finding. What happens at the bottom of the income scale also happens at the top. About 60 per cent of children born to the richest fifth of parents do not end up among the richest fifth; parents influence their children's destiny but do not determine it.

Everyone knows that economic inequality has increased in the US. But the people at the top are not all the same people - or even the children of the same people. This vindicates one version of the American Dream: there is opportunity.

But there's a rub. The possibility that their children will move down the economic ladder is one of the great anxieties that assaults the vast middle class.

Mobility is a great thing, but it often comes at someone else's expense. To some extent, the American Dream is inherently an impossible dream because it cannot fulfil people's expectations of both opportunity and peace of mind.

Robert Samuelson is a Washington Post columnist


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Do the Singapore rap


PETER KAMMERER

Nov 30, 2007           
     
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Civil servants are generally staid, conservative and rock-solid people. As a result, they are perceived as being dull, humourless and lacking innovation. Attempts to break the mould, in the interests of making Hong Kong's civil service more approachable and in touch with the needs of the people it serves, have mostly failed. There is hope, though, and it comes from an unlikely source: Singapore.

I recommend that our colourless officials, Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen foremost among them, check out a video posted on the internet homepage of the city state's Media Development Authority, the government branch responsible for censorship and promoting the growth of media. In its four minutes and 34 seconds, they will find a valuable lesson.

The offering, that has also found its way to the video-sharing website YouTube, shows the suit-wearing authority's senior management rapping words of wisdom to a hip-hop beat while swinging their hips in time. Their performances are gob-smackingly terrible and the lyrics unimaginative.

Despite this, the video has, in a week, become one of the most watched on YouTube, with more than 100,000 views. Traffic to the authority's website, [url]www.mda.gov.sg[/url], has doubled.

Reactions from viewers have been mixed. Many found it cringe-inducing, while a distinct minority have praised it. Recent YouTube postings include: "What a waste of money"; "I like it - you need a lot of courage and a young heart to do it"; and "Amateurish in concept, poorly written and performed."

Singaporean gay rights advocate Alex Au told me he was "flabbergasted" when he set eyes on the video. Not being a fan of the authority - it prevented him from putting on public display a collection of his photographs showing same-sex couples kissing - he might be expected to be less than enthusiastic about the statutory body. The authority, he determined, was Orwellian in its outlook and language, and he detailed a list of other decisions to back up his claim, including: banning a video game because of a scene in which a woman and an alien female kiss; the pre-screening of offerings for a poetry reading; and the editing of movies.

Mr Au may be right about the authority being out of step with global practices, but he is not so accurate when it comes to how it uses language, if the video is any guide. From the opening chorus of "Yes, yes y'all / We don't stop / Get creative, can do, rock on", the conservatively dressed officials show that, although middle-aged, they do have a sense of humour.

You see, what the critics do not understand is that this is not a serious attempt by the authority's senior management to show that they are hip and cool. Rather, it is self-parody.

The authority's communications director, Cassandra Tay, explained that the video had originally been shown at a staff conference in April "as an informal and light-hearted way to communicate our future directions for the media industry, with the production quality pegged accordingly". It was so well received that it was screened in the office reception area, and to new staff, and bundled with an interactive annual report.

"We are amazed at the response and pleased that much discussion has been generated, and we hope this will raise greater awareness of Singapore's media industry," Ms Tay told me.

I venture that the idea has generated far more discussion and achieved its aims much better than the silly effort by InvestHK with its 2005 offering of businessmen dancing on the roof of the HSBC (SEHK: 0005, announcements, news) headquarters to the band Queen's hit We Will Rock You. This is one instance where Singapore has got one up on Hong Kong.

The reason has nothing to do with the merits of the Singaporean video. What stands out is the underlying concept of trying a daring and innovative approach.

Rhyming a few words, well or poorly, and then speaking them to a foot-tappable backbeat, is not difficult. Shaking your hips while doing so is a natural instinct.

Singapore has already come up with the idea, so copying it would not be innovative. Nonetheless, our officials have to do something about sprucing up their image and that of our city.

Dare I suggest a break-dancing competition?

Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor

[email]peter.kamm@scmp.com[/email]


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Good fuel economy
Beijing can learn from America's failures, particularly with regard to oil pricing policies

David Donadio
Dec 03, 2007           
     
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Any country pursuing economic liberalisation could learn much from America's successes. But, these days, China might learn more from America's failures. In booming Guangdong, energy price controls have forced lorry drivers to wait in long lines for diesel fuel. Because Beijing forces oil refiners to sell their products at prices well below what it costs to produce them, the refiners have cut back production capacity, resulting in long queues at the pumps. "Oil futures are near US$100 [a barrel], but the price we sell at is only US$60. We are still losing money," a Sinopec (SEHK: 0386) executive told The Wall Street Journal last month.

For 17 months, planners kept Chinese oil prices fixed, while the true market cost skyrocketed. Now, thankfully, the government seems to have got the message. At the beginning of last month, Beijing raised fuel prices by roughly 10 per cent, in the hope of ending the shortages. It helped - but only allowing prices to return to market levels will restore a healthy equilibrium of supply and demand.

China's policies have precedents in America, and they're not pretty. In 1973, the oil crisis induced the US government to pass oil price controls, which most Americans knew better as long queues at petrol stations. Then, in 1979, the Iranian revolution disrupted world oil supply for the second time in a decade, creating another big spike in prices. US president Jimmy Carter instituted price controls again, resulting, as before, in long queues.

Drivers waited hours to fill up their cars, often in lines hundreds of vehicles long. In the state of Maryland, governor Harry Hughes proposed an "odd-even" system of rationing, under which cars with odd-numbered licence plates could fill up on odd days, and cars with even-numbered plates did so on even days. It was bizarre, and it certainly wasn't popular.

And, of course, once a government begins to control prices and ration scarce goods, it's hard to stop. It didn't take Beijing planners long to recognise that the price controls were hurting their own oil companies but, instead of allowing them to charge what the market would bear for the products, they tried to compensate the companies for the losses. And, so, the lunacy of the controls compounded itself.

"The government forces state-owned or state-controlled firms to absorb losses that analysts say are now running at up to US$10 a barrel on imported crude," John Ruwitch wrote recently in the International Herald Tribune, so "for the past two years, [Beijing] also doled out hefty year-end compensation to Sinopec, the worst hit".

Sinopec controls about 80 per cent of the Chinese market for refined petroleum products, and the China Daily reports that, last year, the bailouts cost the government more than US$1.2 billion. So, Beijing essentially forced consumers to pay for the inconvenience of queueing. The Chinese government knows how much it paid out to aid ailing firms, but it will never really know how much harm it dealt the overall economy. In May last year, Beijing allowed petrol prices to rise 10.6 per cent, and diesel prices to go up 12.3 per cent. No doubt, governing bodies made those decisions on the basis of some economic analysis but, as anyone familiar with the laws of economics has to wonder, what did these economists know about demand that the consumers themselves didn't?

Often, spiking prices aren't pleasant, but they're not the end of the world, either. As my colleagues at the Cato Institute, Jerry Taylor and Peter Van Doren, point out, in the last week of September 2003, oil was selling in US spot markets for US$23.86 a barrel. Five years later, prices are four times higher, but the inflation, unemployment and recession that supposedly follow oil price shocks are nowhere to be seen.

The Communist Party has staked its legitimacy on the ability to continue delivering economic growth at what, by historical standards, is a blistering pace. Party officials seeking to ameliorate popular discontent no doubt want to shield ordinary people from spiking prices but, like them or not, market prices are a reality.

Allowing prices to rise and fall, as they will in the market, can actually relieve pressure on governments. Scarce goods are scarce goods, and even an all-powerful party can't control everything. By recognising certain adversities as facts of life, a government can absolve itself of the onus of having to put an end to them. After all, putting an end to them sometimes creates bigger adversities elsewhere.

David Donadio is a writer and editor at the Cato Institute in Washington


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Green growth
The fight against global warming could herald an eco-friendly transformation of the world's economy

Ban Ki-moon
Dec 04, 2007           
     
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We have read the science. Global warming is real, and we are a prime cause. We have heard the warnings. Unless we act, now, we face serious consequences. Polar ice may melt. Sea levels will rise. A third of our plant and animal species could vanish. There will be famine around the world, particularly in Africa and Central Asia.

Largely lost in the debate is the good news. We can do something about this - more easily, and at far less cost, than most of us imagine.

These are the conclusions of the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

This week, world leaders gather for a summit in Bali. We need a breakthrough: a comprehensive climate change agreement that all nations can embrace. We must set an agenda - a road map to a better future, coupled with a tight timeline that produces a deal by 2009.

We do not yet know what such an accord might look like. Should it tax greenhouse gas emissions, or create an international carbon trading system? Should it provide mechanisms for preventing deforestation, accounting for 20 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions, or help less-developed nations adapt to the inevitable effects of global warming - effects weighing disproportionately on them? Should it emphasise conservation and renewable fuels, like biomass or nuclear power, and make provisions for transferring new "green" technologies around the world?

The answer, of course, is some variation on all the above - and much, much more. If the negotiations get bogged down in the sheer breadth and complexity of the issues, we lose our most precious resource: time. In this, it helps to have a vision of how the future might look, if we succeed.

That is not merely a cleaner, healthier, more secure world for all. Handled correctly, our fight against global warming could set the stage for an eco-friendly transformation of the global economy - one that spurs growth and development rather than crimps it.

We have witnessed three economic transformations in the past century. First came the industrial revolution, then the technology revolution, followed by our modern era of globalisation.

We stand, now, at the threshold of another great change: the age of green economics. The evidence is all around us, often in unexpected places.

Visiting South America recently, I saw how Brazil has become one of the biggest players in green economics, drawing 44 per cent of its energy needs from renewable fuels. The world average is 13 per cent; in Europe, it is 6.1 per cent.

Much is made of the fact that China is poised to surpass the US as the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases. Less well-known, however, are its more recent efforts to confront grave environmental problems. China will invest US$10 billion in renewable energy this year, second only to Germany. It has become a world leader in solar and wind power.

At a recent summit of East Asian leaders in Singapore, Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to reduce energy consumption (per unit of gross domestic product) by 20 per cent over five years - not so far removed, in spirit, from Europe's commitment to a 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. This is the way of the future. According to some estimates, growth in global energy demand could be cut in half over the next 15 years simply by deploying existing technologies, yielding a return on investment of 10 per cent or more.

The new IPCC report lays out the very practical ways, from tougher standards for air conditioners and refrigerators to improved efficiency in industry, building and transport. It estimates that overcoming climate change may cost as little as 0.1 per cent of global GDP a year over the next three decades.

Growth need not suffer and, in fact, may accelerate. Research by the University of California at Berkeley indicates that the US could create 300,000 jobs if 20 per cent of electricity needs were met by renewables. The UN Environment Programme estimates that global investment in zero-greenhouse-gas energy will reach US$1.9 trillion by 2020 - seed money for a wholesale reconfiguration of global industry.

Already, businesses in many parts of the world are demanding clear public policies on climate change, regardless of what form they might take - regulation, emissions caps, efficiency guidelines. The reason is obvious. Business needs ground rules.

Our job, in Bali and beyond, is to shape this nascent global transformation - to open the door to the age of green economics and green development.

What's missing is a global framework within which we, the world's people, can co-ordinate our efforts to fight climate change. The scientists have done their job. Now it's up to the politicians. Bali is a test of their leadership. What are we waiting for?

Ban Ki-moon is UN secretary general


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Trade trouble


FRANK CHING

Dec 05, 2007           
     
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The message was delivered in European tones, but it had a distinctly American flavour: Beijing must lower its import barriers, raise the value of its currency, protect intellectual property rights and create a level playing field. "The EU exports less to China than to Switzerland, a country of 7 million people," said the European Commission president, Jose Manuel Barroso, last Wednesday in Beijing after their annual summit meeting.

The European Union is growing increasingly impatient. The EU's trade deficit with mainland China has tripled in the past six years, reaching US$190 billion last year, and is expected to increase more than 30 per cent this year, to US$253 billion.

For many years, Brussels handled Beijing with kid gloves, depicting Europeans as more sophisticated than crude Americans who knew no better than how to twist arms and impose sanctions. Now, however, the Europeans have decided that the soft approach simply does not work, and have opted for confrontation.

And, it seems, this American-style approach gets results. Washington's call for an increase in the value of the yuan has seen the currency rise almost 12 per cent since July 2005.

However, during that period, it has actually fallen 8 per cent against the euro, making Chinese exports to Europe cheaper and fuelling Beijing's trade surplus.

Moreover, while Europe until recently was reluctant to bring action against China in the World Trade Organisation, the US has not been similarly deterred. And, last week, Washington triumphantly announced that Beijing had agreed to terminate prohibited subsidies that gave an unfair advantage to Chinese products while denying US manufacturers the chance to compete fairly. The agreement came nine months after the US, together with Mexico, took action in the WTO.

The new European approach was demonstrated by trade commissioner Peter Mandelson who, on the eve of the summit, delivered no-holds-barred speeches denouncing the safety of mainland exports, its "tidal wave" of counterfeits, its "theft" of European technology and its controlled currency.

Little was achieved in the summit meeting. In the end, the two sides agreed to set up two panels to study trade and currency issues.

Relations have been strained by political issues, as well. European leaders who were more sympathetic, such as Germany's Gerhard Schroeder, Jacques Chirac of France and Britain's Tony Blair, have been replaced by others less inclined to tiptoe around Beijing. Opinion polls show European perceptions of China are plummeting, with protectionist sentiments rising. Its standing has dropped 15 per cent to 20 per cent in surveys in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Britain.

Up to last year, both China and the EU trumpeted their special relationship, which was described as rising to a comprehensive strategic partnership. Even now, Brussels is by no means antagonistic. In fact, the EU last week openly opposed Taiwan's plan to hold a referendum on joining the UN.

But, on the trade front, Europeans are adamant that Beijing must act. "China has understood our messages and our concerns - no question about that," said a senior European official. "At the highest level, this has been taken on board."

This means it is up to mainland leaders to take action. But economic growth is still Beijing's top priority, and it is unlikely to be willing to slow that growth by respecting intellectual property rights or allowing its currency to appreciate substantially.

If it does not act quickly and decisively, protectionism will certainly rise in Europe. Then, Beijing may well be confronted by a united western front, with the US and Europe sharing common concerns and increasingly co-ordinating their actions.

The mainland is now between a rock and a hard place. Its honeymoon with Europe is over. It has to decide whether it will play by the rules or continue to plead that it is a developing country to which ordinary rules should not apply.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator

[email]frank.ching@scmp.com[/email]


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When the drive for peace only heightens tensions


Donald Kirk
Dec 06, 2007           
     
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In the search for peace, the Middle East rivals Korea as a global flashpoint where a lasting solution seems elusive if not impossible. Fighting in the Middle East has probably cost as many lives as wars for control of the Korean peninsula, beginning with the Sino-Japanese war in the early 1890s, the Russian-Japanese war in the early 1900s and on to the Korean war of 1950-1953 and its aftermath.

That litany of suffering does not begin to count the second world war. The slaughter in Europe and the deaths of millions in Nazi concentration camps had much to do with the birth of Israel as the Jewish state, while the slaughter in Asia drove the Japanese from Korea, leading to the division of the peninsula in 1945.

It may be pointless to try to compare the numbers killed in wars, mass executions and political reprisals in both regions. Still, the eagerness of US President George W. Bush to leave a legacy of achievement between Israelis and Palestinians seems to parallel his hopes for reconciliation on the Korean peninsula. If six-party talks to get North Korea to abandon its entire nuclear weapons programme appear difficult, the process of getting Arab states to ever endorse an Israeli-Palestinian settlement seems infinitely more complicated.

One common bond between the Middle East peace process and that on the Korean peninsula may be the lack of realism on the part of America. It's not likely that Israel and the Palestinian state will come to terms any time soon and, even if they were to find some basis for agreement, what about Gaza, the strip of land that  has fallen into the hands of Hamas? What, exactly, do Middle East talks have to do with the discussions on North Korea's nuclear weapons or North-South reconciliation?

A common denominator is Iran. As a Shiite Muslim state, Iran exerts tremendous militant influence among Shiites in Iraq and elsewhere, including southern Lebanon. Tehran poses a threat not only to Israel but also to the Korean peninsula. Its refusal to talk about giving up its nuclear programme betrays its long-term interest in emerging as a nuclear military power.

Towards this end, Iran has collaborated with North Korea on technology. Iran's nuclear programme relies on highly enriched uranium, an area in which Pyongyang steadfastly denies having dabbled, while building warheads with plutonium at their core. North Korea may shut down the ageing facilities at its Yongbyon complex, but it's hard to subscribe to US envoy Christopher Hill's claim that the regime will acknowledge all it has done to develop a warhead with highly enriched uranium.

Nor is the Iran-North Korean link the only one between the Middle East and Korean talks. Nobody has come up with a definitive explanation for the Israeli raid on a mysterious Syrian base in September. The assumption is the target was "nuclear related" and that North Koreans were killed. Since North Korea is a nuclear state and Syria is not, we may assume that Pyongyang was providing expertise, and possibly equipment, for a Syrian nuclear facility. It seems highly unlikely, however, that details will emerge.

What is most frustrating is that all these talks raise false hopes without resolving underlying problems. True, the Middle East peace conference in Annapolis was the first in seven years. And, the six-party talks on North Korea - when they resumed in 2005 - broke an impasse that had existed since the breakdown in 2002 of the 1994 nuclear agreement over the North's highly enriched uranium programme. In a shrinking world, peace processes are intertwined.

They may, however, only deepen confrontations. What if Iran escalates threats against Israel? And what if North Korea, gorged on aid, goes on developing nuclear warheads in secret after acknowledging its "entire" inventory? These are dangers that Mr Bush, pursuing his "legacy", prefers to ignore.

Donald Kirk is the author of two books and numerous articles on Korea for newspapers, magazines and journals


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Can we really justify burning food for fuel?


Hans-Werner Sinn
Dec 07, 2007           
     
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When UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon recently visited Brazil, he was impressed by the country's use of biofuel to power a quarter of its vehicles. The UN and many countries share the view that biofuel is one option in fighting climate change.

The United States subsidises production of ethanol from maize, with output there growing 12 per cent annually, and almost 10 per cent worldwide. European Union countries subsidised biofuel production with £á3.7 billion (HK$42.5 billion) last year, and intend to cover 8 per cent of their motor fuels from biological sources by 2015 and 20 per cent by 2020.

But is it really wise and ethically acceptable to burn food rather than eat it? If we allow food to be used to produce biofuels, food prices will be linked to the oil price, as the head of the German farmers' association happily announced. Indeed, food prices are increasing in Europe, because more and more farmland is being used for biofuels instead of for food production.

This is not sustainable. The so-called tortilla crisis, which led to protests in Mexico City in January, foreshadows what we can expect. The price of maize, half of which is imported from the US, more than doubled in a year, primarily because of production of bioethanol.

The problem is that advocates of biofuel production have not made it clear where the land will come from. In principle, there are only three ways to procure it: by withdrawing it from food or fodder production, from the production of natural materials - particularly wood - or from nature. The perversity of the first alternative is obvious: there is no surplus food production in the world. Whoever wishes to grow biofuels on land previously used for food production must recognise that this would increase food prices, harming the poorest of the poor.

Similarly, to cultivate biofuels on land otherwise used to produce sustainable construction materials would drive up the prices of these materials and encourage their substitution by non-sustainable materials, like concrete and steel. This may be all right on ethical and social-policy grounds, but it certainly would not help the environment.

Because of photosynthesis, wood stores carbon. The larger the stocks of trees, the less carbon dioxide there is in the atmosphere and the cooler the Earth remains.

It makes no sense to use land in whatever form to produce biofuels. Only producing them without the use of additional land is justifiable in terms of environmental and social policy.

This would mean using agricultural and other waste, which would otherwise rot and produce nearly equal amounts of carbon dioxide and methane - an even more dangerous greenhouse gas.

That option should be supported. However, official encouragement of the production of biofuels on land that would have been used for other purposes must be brought to a halt.

Hans-Werner Sinn is professor of economics and finance at the University of Munich, and president of the Ifo Institute. Copyright: Project Syndicate


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Back to school for rabble-rousing fans
243 days to go

OLYMPIC COUNTDOWN
Peter Simpson
Dec 09, 2007           
     
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They're considered the extra man and can make or destroy sportsmen and women on the field of play by their bizarre, humorous, eccentric and, sadly, occasionally violent acts of passion and loyalty. From Liverpool to Lisbon, Beijing to Brisbane, Manchester to Melbourne, Soweto to Seoul and Rio to Rotterdam, fans are at the heart of the sporting matter, if not the final score.
The anatomy of the fan has kept postgraduate students burning the midnight oil, pontificating on what makes the terraces tick in theses a thousand pages thick.



Sports fans on the mainland are no different from their counterparts the world over, when given the chance to show their colours.

But government officials are concerned the overly patriotic spectating masses might let the country down when the Olympic flame is lit next year.

Chinese sports fans have a tradition of committing a net-full of spectating faux pas. If they're not spitting obscenities to make grandmothers from Harbin to Kunming choke on their rice, or waving inciting banners to freeze international relations, they're loudly answering a blaring mobile phone, or taking flash camera shots during breath-stealing sporting moments - exposing not only their rudeness but their sporting ignorance.

As any international golfer, snooker or tennis player who has competed on the mainland will testify, the Chinese often behave as if they are enduring a long-distance bus ride sat on an open box of irate scorpions; fidgeting away, oblivious to events and easily distracted by a call inquiring if they're heading to the karaoke bar.

So worried is the Beijing government, that in fine communist tradition it has started to conduct spectating lessons at factories, on the farm, in offices and at other work units. It hopes the teachings by the "The Beijing Civilised Workers Cheering Squad" - which includes 20 government-approved chants - will prevent a huge embarrassment in the Bird's Nest stadium.

There will be a collective slap to the forehead among the dark suits if the public education programme fails, and Old Wang's mobile goes off with The East Is Red ringtone just as Liu Xiang prepares to spring from the blocks in the Bird's Nest, or if a bandana-wearing revengeful fan proclaims justice for Nanjing when Japan's divers take to the high board in the Water Cube.

"Zhongguo, Zhongguo - ha, ha, ha. Zhongguo, Zhongguo bi sheng. Jia you! Jia you!" shouted one group of office clerks during their sportsmanship class - like a reconstructed struggle lesson reminiscent of regimented mass education and participation favoured by Chairman Mao during the Cultural Revolution.

The clerks' chants of "China, China - ha, ha, ha. China, China must win", and "Fill her up! Fill her up [Let's go China]", are preferable to those heard during the recent, nail-biting Super League soccer end-of-season matches.

Last month, Beijing Guo'an failed to clinch the championship during their last game of the season. The fans' vitriol was akin to an annual Tourette's sufferers' convention. It was only thanks to a huge security presence that the mouthfuls of bilious threats were prevented from being carried out.

Anyone who attended the Asian Cup soccer final in 2004 between China and bitter rivals Japan can attest to what appeared to be a careful orchestration of the home fans' reaction to the 3-1 loss on the hallowed turf of the Worker's Stadium in Beijing.

While most fans were ushered from the stadium, a few thousand were allowed to remain behind to shout the worst expletives and insults known in the Chinese language.

The 3,000-odd Japanese fans - surrounded by hundreds of plain-clothed and uniformed PLA - watched their heroes lift the cup in a stunned, worried silence.

The Japanese women's soccer team suffered similar torment just three months ago - booed and jeered by 40,000 Chinese fans during their match against Germany at September's World Cup clash in Hangzhou.

Bitter rivalries are to be expected in sport and can add a priceless edginess to performances. However, xenophobia bordering on racism is a worry at international and domestic sporting events held in China. Black soccer players are often booed - a throwback to the terraces of 1970s and early '80s Britain.

More worrying, perhaps, is the average Chinese fan has his or her emotions continuously juggled by a government that uses sport to either promote and actively encourage patriotism bordering on nationalism, or to order respect, restraint and politeness in front of "foreigners".

Recall, if you will, the riots outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing in 2005. Seething over Tokyo's wartime past and its bid for a permanent UN Security Council seat, it was reported the Chinese government authorised coaches to pick up students and other approved activists and drive them for a banner-waving, stone-throwing protest.

After the riot, which saw embassy windows smashed and drew condemnation from around the world, the protesters were ordered by shadowy figures in the mob to stop with the stones.

"We were told on the first day that throwing stones was okay, and the next that it was not," said one of the protesters, a Chinese university student who plays for an expat soccer team in Beijing.

Beijing Guo'an's stadium is, like much of the capital, decorated with government sloganeering banners such as "Be civilised when you watch the match. Don't get angry about the results" - all part of the mass campaign to whip Beijingers into shape.

And it's working.

"We are not going to shout profanities in front of foreigners because the Olympics is a show for foreigners," Lui Wei, a 21-year-old spectator attending a recent Guo'an game, told an Associated Press reporter.

"The government has told us it's not polite. The government wants to show a good image of the country," Lui said.

How parliaments and police forces managing hooligan-plagued football matches across Europe must be turning green with envy.


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A dangerous pattern of US presidential fraud


Laurence Brahm
Dec 11, 2007           
     
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"China measures national success by GNP [gross national product] while Bhutan measures it by GNH [gross national happiness]; America measures it based on GNF [gross national fear]," a Tibetan lama said at a Buddhist forum in Bangkok recently.

His thoughts seemed to be underscored by a US intelligence services report last week vindicating Iran's nuclear programme as peaceful. According to the National Intelligence Estimate, Iran stopped its nuclear weapons programme in 2003, and has no apparent intention to renew it.

Suddenly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems both reasonable and credible, certainly compared with US President George W. Bush. All along, Mr Ahmadinejad has insisted on Iran's right to diversify its energy sources away from polluting oil - the nation's main export and revenue earner - to non-polluting, uranium-fuelled sources.

On the falsified assumption that Iran's programme is defence related, Mr Bush's brinkmanship has brought the world to the edge of what the president himself proclaimed as "world war three".

But Mr Bush seems unshaken in his convictions. He continues to justify escalating sanctions and possibly turning the Middle East into another apocalypse through false or contrived intelligence - as was the case with Iraq. Facts have been suppressed, to make way for opinion.

As Mr Bush said: "Look, Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous." Such rhetoric is echoed by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said: "I continue to see Iran as a dangerous power in international politics." The question that the media should be asking is: which power is really the dangerous one today?

As Senator Barack Obama explained lucidly, Mr Bush "continues to not let facts get in the way of his ideology". So, have we traded one form of fundamentalist-driven brinkmanship for another? Is there any difference between blinkered thinking in Tehran and in Washington? The irony of this latest intelligence revelation is that it brings tremendous credibility to Mr Ahmadinejad.

"Any security problem that could happen in one country will have a negative effect on the security of all countries," he said. "These situations cannot endure more pressure, otherwise they will be out of control. We wish, at the same time, that all those concerned with regional and international affairs [would] reconsider their positions before it is too late."

Now, it seems that Mr Ahmadinejad was telling the truth all along, and Mr Bush was lying. These lies continue the dangerous pattern of presidential fraud proved by the false evidence that coerced the American public into supporting an invasion of Iraq. Mr Bush has something in common with al-Qaeda - mainly the persistence of single-minded fanaticism.

Almost immediately after the release of the intelligence report, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates rushed off to Kabul, claiming there were rumours of rising al-Qaeda influence and Taleban popularity. The Taleban is popular, due to skewed and unrealistic US policies which have failed in Afghanistan, like in Iraq, making the situation for local residents even worse than before.

Nevertheless, Dr Gates blamed it all on Iran. But al-Qaeda is essentially the militant wing of a Wahabi fundamentalist movement which, like the Taleban, is Sunni. Iran is Shiite. So, a connection seems tenuous.

The only conclusion is that Dr Gates needs a crash course in Islam, and the western media needs to ask more independent-minded questions instead of just repeating White House press announcements.

Washington has now been seen to be falsifying intelligence about Iraq and Iran (repeating the pattern of lies seen with Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam). With countless lives lost - meaninglessly - isn't it time to say "enough"?

Laurence Brahm is a political economist, author, filmmaker and founder of Shambhala Foundation


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Size is everything in Swede's business-led battle with poverty


BEHIND THE NEWS
Sarah Monks
Dec 12, 2007           
     
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Mention a scale model and most people think of a miniature train, car or an iconic building in perfect replica. But for Swedish industrialist Percy Barnevik, scale - huge scale - is the right model for raising the world's "bottom billion" out of poverty, including hundreds of millions in China.

Since stepping down in 2001 as chairman of one of the world's leading engineering companies, ABB, formerly known as Asea Brown Boveri, he has been on a mission to mobilise the world's poorest into entrepreneurship and job creation.

Unlike many people his age, Mr Barnevik, 66, is unwilling to "retire to Spain to drink gin and tonic". He is the founding donor and international chairman of Hand in Hand, an Indian charitable trust run by 4,000 local Indian employees and 9,000 volunteers to deliver large-scale results rapidly - and which is growing fast.

"Where we differ from other charities is that we build scale. I don't want to help a thousand downtrodden women. I want to help 1 million. I don't want to get just 100 children into school in India but 300,000," he said during a visit to Hong Kong last week.

In little over three years, the organisation has given entrepreneurial training and business coaching to 262,000 impoverished women in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu and facilitated their access to cheap credit. As a result, the women have started 95,000 family businesses and 500 medium-sized enterprises. The target is 1.3 million new jobs by 2010.

The new enterprises cover a wide range of products and services, from looms to laundries to foodstuffs. In addition, Hand in Hand has set up medical camps and health awareness campaigns that reach 250,000 people annually. More than 12,500 children have passed through Hand in Hand's residential schools.

The programme is being replicated in South Africa and Afghanistan, where its self-help model for the poor is being adopted by governments and NGOs with the aim of creating 1.3 and 2.2 million jobs, respectively, within five years.

Now, Mr Barnevik is turning his attention to the mainland and applying his model to help lift the 500 million poorest Chinese out of poverty. He visited Hong Kong last week and sees a possible role for the city in supporting a job creation initiative in one of the mainland's poorest areas.

Mr Barnevik is no stranger to China, having first visited Beijing on business in 1970. Some years later, he signed "the biggest order of my life" with then premier Li Peng for ABB to supply generators and transmission systems for the Three Gorges hydroelectric scheme.

"China is ahead of India because it started reform 30 years ago. But the need for creative, productive employment for poor people left behind is identical," he said. "In western China tens of millions live in very poor conditions. It is necessary to raise employment levels, create jobs where people earn better money and to limit the migration to the big cities.

"China works hard to stimulate companies to move west, but bringing companies there can't do it all. A hundred million jobs won't easily come out of big business. You also need cottage industries."

London-based Mr Barnevik recently spent a week in northern Yunnan visiting poor villages close to the border with Sichuan to find out what the situation is like on the ground and to meet officials and NGOs.

"Some of these villages without roads are comparable to the worst in India," he said. "The poorest are used to receiving grants. The idea is to help them start enterprises and move higher than the absolute bottom. I focused on the opportunities to start enterprises, the available market and possible products to develop."

Mr Barnevik is adamantly opposed to what he calls "the feeding tap" which can quickly run dry when aid or donations stop flowing. "The idea of help to self-help with loans instead of grants is at times difficult to carry out, but it is the only sustainable way out of poverty," he said, citing the success of Nobel Prize-winning Bangladeshi banker Muhammad Yunus and his Grameen Bank in championing microcredit loans to entrepreneurs too poor to qualify for traditional bank loans.

"The basic idea is to stimulate poor people to stick out their necks, start enterprises, employ other people and grow from there. You need strong local partners. We train them and then they train those who become the entrepreneurs."

Hand in Hand invests heavily in education and capacity building - and allows little scope for any "sitting on hands". Family-based businesses must be up and running on their own almost immediately. Medium-sized companies must survive on their own after an initial period of hand holding. Hand in Hand "citizens' centres", which provide village-level internet connections and other business support facilities, must be owned and run by entrepreneurs as service companies after six to 12 months.

The tough approach replicates the management style that made Mr Barnevik a corporate titan in Europe and a key player in global business. He demands high efficiency, strict targets, tight quality control, low costs (hence no "expensive" western staff), maximum leveraging and, above all, scale.

"The potential for China is, of course, huge. We want to see the beginning of something that can be scaled up to 1 million people and jobs over a certain period of time," he said, adding that the Tamil Nadu experience showed the self-help model could work on a large scale.

"The Chinese have the people and they have money to expand it themselves throughout the province into other provinces."

He said the mainland already had a good system for lending to small enterprises through community co-operatives and agricultural banks, but that donor money from inside the country and elsewhere would be needed to invest in training.

Mr Barnevik donated about US$17 million of his own cash to get Hand in Hand off the ground. In Hong Kong, he met with heads of potential NGO partners from whose experiences Hand in Hand could learn. He also began meeting potential donors interested in financing a job creation programme on the mainland.

"We have all the reason in the world to believe the successful job creation model can be implemented there with proper co-operation and local partners," he said.

"That's what makes it attractive to me, that you can participate as a catalyst, as a pilot and it can have a big impact since you have well-organised government in China with their own funding to carry on. Like rings on the water."

For more information go to [url]www.hihseed.org[/url]


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A slow start out of the Olympic blocks


OBSERVER
James Tien
Dec 13, 2007           
     
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"A lifetime of training for just 10 seconds." That was how the great African-American athlete Jesse Owens described his mixed emotions after winning a gold medal - and sporting immortality - in the 100-metres final at the 1936 Berlin Olympics.

No one could accuse Owens of being poorly prepared. His whole adult life to that point had focused on his quest for gold. We in Hong Kong, by contrast, have only nine months before our own Olympic challenge - and right now, we're simply not in shape.

In August next year, Hong Kong will have the honour of being an Olympic city, hosting the equestrian events of the 2008 Games. It is the opportunity of a lifetime - and an opportunity we are currently in danger of allowing to pass us by.

Cross the border to the mainland, and the billboards, the posters, the paraphernalia and the excitement are there for everyone to see. Here in Hong Kong, by contrast, there isn't so much as an Olympic murmur, let alone an Olympic fervour. I have every confidence that, as the time draws near, Hong Kong will focus on the challenge that the Olympics presents. My concern, however, is that we will leave it too late, and fail to make the most of this golden opportunity.

It isn't only athletes who benefit from the Olympics. With the eyes of the world upon us, the 2008 Games will benefit every person who lives, works and does business in Hong Kong and mainland China. We must be ready to welcome the Olympic tourists on their way to and from the Games on the mainland, and those watching the Hong Kong events.

We must be ready to take advantage of the opportunity to burnish Hong Kong's appeal around the world and showcase our huge variety of attractions. We must entice and attract as many visitors as we can and ensure that they take away with them memories not just of the greatest Games yet, but of a diverse and vibrant city that they will want to return to again and again.

To prepare ourselves properly, we must promote ourselves properly. That is why the Hong Kong Tourism Board, which I chair, has already begun taking our message around the world. We are selling Hong Kong as a destination in New Zealand, Britain, France and the United States. In the months ahead, we will intensify those promotion efforts in target cities across the continents.

We plan to implement a series of initiatives to improve the Olympic atmosphere and enrich visitors' experiences. These include special decorations and meet-and-greet events at ports of entry. But the true fervour needs to come from within the hearts of Hongkongers - and that is lacking.

Time is a precious commodity, as Owens appreciated when he reflected ruefully on the years of effort he invested for his 10 seconds of glory. But the legacy of his deeds in that golden summer more than 70 years ago lives on today.

We cannot afford to stand on the sidelines and watch the Olympics pass us by, like observers watching the finalists in the 100-metres race flash before their eyes. We must get involved, engaged and engrossed. The prize that the 2008 Games offer is more than just a moment in the sun. It is a legacy that will last for years. Every schoolchild should be chattering excitedly about it; every business planning promotions around it.

Our legacy will be a strengthened sporting interest among our young people. It will be a hugely enhanced international reputation for Hong Kong. Our legacy will be the knowledge that, in the summer of 2008, we were a successful and celebrated Olympic city. But that legacy has yet to be earned.

Let's get on the starting blocks now. Let's not waste another day. Let's get a proper Olympic countdown under way in this co-host city and remind everyone just how close it is, just how much there is still to do, and just how much we have to win or lose.

James Tien Pei-chun is chairman of the Hong Kong Tourism Board and the Liberal Party


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Blinkered Macau


PETER KAMMERER

Dec 14, 2007           
     
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Few places on Earth have undergone as much change in the past decade as Macau. Even beside the growth of mainland China, the city's evolution from a sleepy Portuguese backwater to the world's gambling capital, in terms of revenue, is stunning. Bulging coffers from gambling taxes, and phenomenal growth and development, would ordinarily earn leaders the equivalent of a Nobel Prize for public service.

The serious problems the city faces say quite the opposite, though: those in charge should be replaced by people who know what they are doing. This is the view of the author of the definitive reference book on the city, Nagasaki University professor Geoffrey Gunn. After visiting Macau last Friday for the first time in two years, I can only agree.

An information technology training manager I met at the ferry pier in Hong Kong answered my question about how much had changed by using an analogy he was familiar with: hardware and software. He said the city had undergone a facelift that was akin to putting the latest computer in place, but the mindset of the people using it - the operating system - was still Windows 95. This proved to be remarkably accurate.

Macau is often compared with its US gambling city sister, Las Vegas - although the only similarity is that there are Las Vegas casino operators who have set up shop in Macau. The driving force of Macau's income is overwhelmingly from casino taxes. Las Vegas knows that this is not, in itself, a viable income stream and has diversified through conventions and entertainment.

A terrorist attack, bird flu outbreak, powerful typhoon: any disaster could send gamblers running. And they might not come in such numbers if the mainland, Hong Kong or other regional cities opened their doors to casinos - as Singapore is doing.

Dr Gunn put the lack of diversification down to the government not having a firm development plan. Worse, it had given little thought to the implications of letting so many casino operators in at once with the opening of the gambling concession in 2002, leading to a flood of mainland gamblers and severe strain on essential resources like electricity, water and transport.

There is ample proof of this one-eyed approach which, in two cases, even tramples on another income-earner - the city's history and roots. The A-Ma temple, dedicated to the goddess of the sea and believed by some to be the origin of Macau's name, has been cut off from the reason for which it was built: a road now separates it from the South China Sea. And Beijing has stepped into a controversy over a Unesco-designated world heritage site, the Guia lighthouse, because the Macau government's approval of erecting tall buildings nearby threatens to obscure it.

The trial on fraud and money-laundering charges of former transport and public works secretary Ao Man-long is revealing much about the drivers of the construction boom. It comes amid increasing anti-government sentiment from a chunk of the population left out of the development loop because they lack the skills to work in the new casino and retail operations.

Authorities recognise the brewing crisis and have promised an improved education system and better social services. But skills on a par with imported foreign workers will take time to develop, as will building capacity on the electricity grid and homes for the elderly, among much else that needs urgent attention.

Above all, though, Macau's people need to shake off their small-town mentality.

My return to Hong Kong summed up the so-called new Macau. At the ferry terminal, I was told that although it was 8pm, the earliest sailing for which tickets were available was 12.45am. Startled, I turned round, and was greeted by a throng of ticket touts who had snapped up the available seats and were offering them at inflated prices - all within earshot of the counter.

This is the thinking of the Macau of old - and the reason why there needs to be a shake-up in the top-most echelons of the administration, to set an example for all.

Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor

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Catch of the day: a fix for our fisheries crisis


Markus Shaw
Dec 17, 2007           
     
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For the past few years, along with other environmentalists, I have been invited by the chief executive to discuss areas of concern prior to his policy address. Every year, I have told him that our marine environment and collapsing fisheries are the most pressing conservation issues in Hong Kong. As usual, marine conservation merited not a single mention in this year's policy address.
The dire state of our marine environment is an easy problem to fix. It requires a little intelligence, some commitment, and not a great deal of money. In addition, a recent socio-economic study by the University of British Columbia shows that investing in a solution to our fisheries crisis results in a very significant return on investment in terms of payback to other parts of the economy.



One of WWF's proposals is the creation of sizeable no-take marine reserves. Our initial aim is 10 per cent of local waters. Bill Ballantine, the famous marine conservationist from New Zealand and pioneer campaigner for no-take reserves, said on a recent visit here that we should be more ambitious. "Go for 50 per cent," he said. "Hong Kong will be an overnight sensation. The whole world will speak of you with admiration - you'll be on the front pages and at the forefront of conservation."

It was a dramatic call. Not as dramatic, however, as the "top priority" 1999 recommendation of the Environmental Policy Working Group, set up by Tung Chee-hwa, that all of our waters should be turned into a marine park. Here's a message for Donald Tsang Yam-kuen: this would be a legacy on a scale of former governor Murray MacLehose's country park system - a lasting legacy for the ages.

In the meantime, the government still operates a free-for-all fishing policy. Mr Tsang says the problem is difficult because fishermen's livelihoods are at stake. It only takes a moment's reflection to realise that their livelihoods are at stake because there are no fish to catch. It is not an excuse for inaction. Even the fishermen feel anything is better than the status quo. The Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department is asleep at the wheel. Ten years after a government-commissioned report concluded that our fisheries were in a state of crisis and in need of urgent action, almost nothing has been done.

The Committee for Sustainable Fisheries was set up last year. It will talk until 2009 and then make recommendations. Its membership does not include anyone from the WWF, the most actively involved NGO on this issue in Hong Kong. Nor does it include any scientist with fisheries expertise, despite there being in Hong Kong world-renowned experts in this field.

The fishing community is also asleep at the wheel. The key prerequisite of any compensation scheme is a licensing regime for commercial fishermen in Hong Kong. All our neighbouring countries operate such a scheme. It is inexcusable that there should be any delay in its introduction here. Yet the fishermen themselves are opposed. This is akin to the government saying to fishermen: "Here is a monopoly," and the fishermen replying: "No thank you."

The fishermen's instinctual reflex to oppose any change, even one which will benefit them, is one of the obstacles to progress. It also contradicts the opinion that many of them have expressed that any change is better than the status quo.

The average weight of fish caught in Hong Kong is less than 10 grams. Last week I interviewed one of them: "There are very few adults left now," it said. "Most of us are kids - we get taken at a very young age." A Chinese Bahaba (a two-metre specimen) said: "I'm really surprised you were able to find me! We used to be some of the most numerous fish in the Pearl River Delta. Now even I find it difficult to find another Bahaba. I think I must be one of the last ones left."

I asked what message I could bring back, and they all replied: "Alas, fish don't vote. Tell them that we love the waters of Hong Kong. Make it safe for us, and we will come back."

Markus Shaw is chairman of WWF Hong Kong


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Cracks in the system
It's a pity the strategic economic dialogue is so ineffective, as Sino-US ties will only get trickier

Andy Xie
Dec 18, 2007           
     
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Despite the hoopla around agreements on food safety and some other issues, the fortunes of the Sino-US strategic economic dialogue continue to decline. Last week's third session of the meetings did not reverse their trend towards becoming another expensive talk shop. With so many top-level people together for several days, it is a pity that the dialogue didn't achieve more.

It can, and it should. The rise of China is bringing benefits to many and also significant tension to the world order. The process must be managed carefully by China and the US together, to avoid big shocks to the global economic system in the next 20 years.

The dialogue came about as the tension over China's currency policy threatened to boil over. From America's perspective, the forum was meant to be a pressure cooker for hammering Beijing into capitulation on its currency policy. China saw it as a place to educate foreign devils on mainland realities, so they would stop making demands and complicating the life of the Communist Party.

But it was a case of "same bed, different dreams" from the outset. The lame duck presidency in the US robbed the American delegation of its "scarecrow" effect. Indeed, the next US administration may abandon the dialogue completely. That would be a pity.

The rise of China will be the most important force in the global economy for the next two decades. China's economy will grow to over half the size of the American one in the next 10 years, and may exceed it before 2030, triggering more tensions between the two nations. A platform like the strategic economic dialogue will be badly needed to solve disputes and head off new tensions.

The key to a stable global equilibrium is to make China's rise a win-win for most players, especially the US. It has been so in the past. As factories moved to China, the west benefited from higher corporate profitability, lower consumer prices and low interest rates. Cheap debt covered up the income problem for blue-collar workers who lost out to Chinese workers. Western companies also benefited from China's income growth by owning a big chunk of the Chinese economy. Over one-tenth of Chinese domestic demand is met by foreign enterprises that produce in China. No large economy in the world is as open.

But that virtuous cycle has run into rough ground lately. Debt has played a big role in US prosperity over the past 10 years. But now it turns out that much of the debt accumulation was due to fraudulent financial products that understated their true costs. Hence, the trend to go into debt became artificially inflated. As the debt bubble bursts, the US is trying to prop up its living standard through income instead of debt. Its cheap-currency policy has fostered an obsession with China's exchange rate.

But a stronger yuan would have little direct impact on the performance of US exports. China's labour cost is one-tenth of America's. No conceivable amount of yuan appreciation would make America's manufactured goods cheap enough for Chinese consumers to buy.

An indirect effect of yuan appreciation - the further strengthening of other currencies against the US dollar - is difficult to assess. Inflationary pressure from a cheap dollar appears to be taking hold, which may limit how far it can fall. So it seems the US must solve its problem through less consumer spending rather than exports. But that will be painful, so the US may lash out at China regardless of its actual level of culpability in the US downturn.

It is not in China's interest to see the US decline. America's economy needs to make some adjustments, but the downturn could spiral out of control. The US Federal Reserve is trying to inject liquidity to revive the credit market, but that is the wrong medicine. Two issues stopped the credit expansion. First, some major financial institutions may be technically bankrupt; regardless of how much money they get from the Fed, they cannot lend because of a lack of capital.

Second, Wall Street misled the world and marketed fraudulent papers in the name of financial innovation. It could take time for foreigners to recover their confidence in Wall Street, and lend to America again. Other people cannot help the US on the second point; it must undertake serious reforms and weed out the bad apples in its financial system.

But Beijing could help with the first point. China is running a current-account surplus of over US$300 billion per year. The surplus capital could be used to pursue equity stakes in US financial institutions, to replenish their capital. More important, Beijing could link those institutions to China's booming economy, enormously strengthening their franchise value. This win-win solution, however, is resisted by the US establishment, who can't imagine Chinese as major shareholders - that is, potential bosses. They just want to keep Chinese in the dark and feed them US Treasury debt.

Americans may come to their senses next year. When the credit crunch becomes much worse, Chinese money may not look so bad after all. They might even knock on China's door, begging for money. The best way for China to help the US is to recapitalise its own financial system, not revalue the yuan. Let the next strategic economic dialogue focus on solutions like this rather than on fancy rhetoric.

Andy Xie is an independent economist


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Nobel calling for Chinese stem cell scientist who beat the odds


BEHIND THE NEWS
Stephen Chen
Dec 19, 2007           
     
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When she started out two years ago at the University of Wisconsin-Madison searching for gene combinations that could reverse an ordinary skin cell into a stem cell, a primitive type that could potentially be turned into any kind of human cell, Yu Junying's chances were one in about nine followed by 157 zeros.

"I did not have much hope of getting anywhere when we started," said Dr Yu, 34.

But the Peking University graduate, who grew up on a rice farm in Tanxi village, Zhejiang province , and went to the US a decade ago, was undaunted and came up with a solution that could put her in the running for a Nobel Prize. "I am just a stubborn person who got lucky," she said of her breakthrough research.

Stem cells became the source of intense scientific interest after researchers discovered they had the potential to produce any kind of human cell. The first human stem cells were successfully harvested in 1998 and since then many scientists have believed the only viable source of the type is an early-stage embryo. But the process involves destruction of the embryo and is ethically controversial.

A number of alternative sources have since been proposed, including ova and sperm, but little progress has been made.

Fresh from her PhD programme at the University of Pennsylvania, Dr Yu, started her research in 2003 as an assistant scientist in the laboratory of James Thomson, a renowned stem cell specialist who led the production of the first human embryonic stem cell lines.

Dr Yu spent the next two years trying to prove that "fusing" stem cells with other cells causes some of these cells to revert to a stem-cell-like undifferentiated state.

"It was an exciting finding, but practically useless unless we could figure out what were the driving genes behind the changes," said Dr Yu.

She calculated there were about 100 possible trigger genes in the pool and, in 2005, with the continued support of Dr Thomson, started sorting them out to determine which ones activated the process. She focused her efforts on setting off the reversal in skin cells.

"Few had thought about skin cells maybe because they are too marginal and too common," said Dr Yu. "But they are the type of cells we understand most."

About the same time, she had heard of a team of Japanese scientists who were on the same trail, but said she felt no pressure.

"They must have felt the same. In the beginning you feel as though only God knows how long it will take. It could be forever," she said.

Dr Yu worked at least 10 hours each day in the lab doing the labour-intensive cloning, injecting and testing of one gene after another, over and over again with only two technicians to help her. A year passed with no positive results.

"Besides the Japanese, I didn't think anyone else was willing to do the job because it was heavy duty and labour intensive," she said. "I was prepared for decades [of research]."

But then she got lucky. On July 4 last year, Dr Yu hit on a combination of 14 genes that actually worked. To celebrate, she went home and had a sound sleep.

The initial excitement was followed by fear and stress. For more than three years she had worked with little hope and, thus, little pressure. But at that moment she realised she could not "afford to lose the race to the Japanese".

That realisation was shared by the university laboratory and more resources were put at her disposal, with Dr Thomson participating in the final testing phase.

Dr Yu redoubled her efforts and successfully narrowed the number of genes down to four - two functional drivers and two efficiency boosters - and submitted her paper to Science magazine.

The Japanese team, led by Kyoto University's Shinya Yamanaka, also submitted their findings - with two pairs of genes similar to Dr Yu's - to Cell magazine at more or less the same time.

In a rare moment of co-operation between two rival scientific journals, the magazines decided to publish their papers simultaneously on November 20. "It was a deal to share the Nobel prize," a leading mainland biologist said.

When asked recently if the paper would win her the Nobel Prize, Dr Yu simply said with a smile: "Who knows?"

Unlike the discovery of the molecular structure of DNA, which went unnoticed for years, Dr Yu's and Professor Yamanaka's findings made headlines around the world.

"Everyone was waiting for this day to come," Tadeusz Pacholczyk, director of education at the National Catholic Bioethics Centre, told The New York Times.

Pei Duanqing, deputy director general of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Guangzhou Institute of Biomedicine and Health, said he vividly remembered a visit to meet Dr Yu at her lab last year.

"The woman has a very pure mindset ... with persistence and fresh ideas," Professor Pei said. "We are profoundly happy not only because it opens a door that leads to an entirely new world [of stem cell research] for all of us, but also because a Chinese has played a decisive role in making it happen."

Meanwhile, Dr Yu has two issues to address. First, she is eager to find out how and why the genes can effectively reverse a cell's development.

"We still know terribly little about the reversing mechanism. Further investigation may revolutionise our understanding of life," she said.

The second objective is to perfect the technology so that one day it can be safely applied to people and this involves finding ways to remove the four alien genes.

"The reversed stem cells are not exactly the same as those we obtain from an embryo ... [The alien genes] could induce mutations or cancer, so I am looking for methods to take them out after they complete their functions at the final stage," she said.

"Before their removal, we will not use them to produce any tissues or organs for humans ... We may use [the stem cells] to study some diseases such as Parkinson's by creating some neurons for drug testing, but we are not ready to apply the cells on humans directly."


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America's tortured soul stands on trial


TOM PLATE

Dec 20, 2007           
     
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There are times when, from a moral standpoint, men and women simply should not remain silent. In such times, seemingly fine lines need to be turned into unequivocal hard lines. This is when the men and women of conscience stand out.

Consider the controversy about torture that is bedevilling America. It may be hard to believe, but only one serious presidential candidate has so far been outspoken about the need for the US never to use torture.

At a time when potential leaders ought to be standing up, by and large they are falling all over themselves in an attempt to avoid taking firm policy lines that might alienate potential primary voters.

But moral waffling is not the style, on the vital question of torture, for Senator John McCain. And he should know: he spent time in a Vietnamese prison, where he was severely mistreated and other American soldiers were tortured.

He recently said: "These tools are not American tools, and the easy way is not the American way."

It is the difficult moral dilemmas in life that give definition to our character and soul. All the candidates favour a high-quality health care system. No one is happy about the rich-poor divide. No candidate, as far as I know, offers anything other than a contemptuous view of Islamic terrorism. Those are the easy questions. But should the US way of interrogation permit the torture of a suspect who may have valuable, even explosive, information?

Two major ways of approaching this question are perhaps most incisive. One approach uses cost-benefit analysis: would the quality and quantity of information obtained by torture justify the barbarity of the technique? The problem with this philosophical approach is that sometimes, if not often, the information is not useful or may be erroneous.

The second classic approach is more principled. It does not try to add up the gains and losses of using torture, but would absolutely ban certain classic torture techniques as unambiguous no-go areas for US interrogators.

But don't desperate times call for desperate measures? The answer is that desperate times test true moral fibre in ways that ordinary times can't even approach.

In 1981, I wrote a book with Andrea Darvi, now my wife, titled Secret Police: The Inside Story of a Network of Terror. Its conclusion was that America is different from bad nations only when it stays on the morally right side. "A secret police force is a horribly blunt and effective instrument of suffering," we wrote. "This book is intended as a warning."

Today, more than a quarter of a century later, at least one candidate for the White House takes a similar view. It is no wonder that both the Des Moines Register and The Boston Globe - major newspapers stalking the Des Moines and New Hampshire primary tests - recently endorsed Senator McCain. No one needs to agree with him on every issue. But at least he stands for something - and it is something very important: America's national soul.

Tom Plate is a veteran journalist and author, most recently, of Confessions of an American Media Man


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Grains of hope


PETER KAMMERER

Dec 21, 2007           
     
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As a child growing up in Australia in the 1960s, the topic of global hunger came up every other night at the dinner table. A reluctant vegetable eater, I was constantly being reminded by my mother about the world's starving children so that I would not waste food.

World leaders have spoken a lot about global hunger. There have been numerous top-level summits held, agreements signed and countless billions of dollars pledged and given.

Swathes of the world have benefited, but there are still substantial parts where hunger is rampant. The UN estimates that, each day, 25,000 people die from a lack of food or related causes.

The problem is not so much that there is not enough food, but that people living in poverty cannot afford it. They become malnourished, and prone to illnesses and disease.

If governments gave 0.7 per cent of their annual budgets to fight poverty, as experts contend they should, hunger would quickly disappear. As it is, only Scandinavian nations meet or approach this target, and the consequence of the shortfall is apparent in the grim statistics.

Through rapid industrial development, China and India are showing what can be achieved. But not all nations can offer the same workforce skills and advantages, so a solution, for now, remains in the world banding together to help feed hungry people.

Innovation is the key, and I stumbled across it on the internet this week at [url]www.freerice.com.[/url] Millions of other people have also found what is surely one of the most useful of all websites.

US computer programmer John Breen, a long-time advocate for poverty alleviation, came up with the idea by chance. His eldest son was studying for exams and a word game was devised to help him with his English.

Mr Breen had developed a site for the UN's World Food Programme and has since set up his own site - poverty.com - to educate people about the problem. By combining his word game with his desire to see global hunger vanquished, the new website was born on October 7. Tens of thousands of people have since received food that they would not otherwise have.

At this seasonal time of giving and sharing, there is no better gift than the address of this website. By playing the game, you will be improving your English language skills while feeding the needy.

The concept is simple: You are given a word and have to choose the one with the same meaning from a list of four. Each correct answer earns 20 grains of rice, which the advertiser on each page pays for and forwards to the World Food Programme.

For those learning English or who simply love words, this game is addictive. The more correct answers, the harder the level. While you are learning and having fun, money for food is being raised.

World Food Programme spokesman Caroline Hurford said that more than US$200,000 had already gone to her organisation and that at least half had been used to buy rice for the victims of the recent floods in Bangladesh. With millions of people visiting the site each day, and the number increasing rapidly, she had high hopes for its fund-raising powers.

Mr Breen is surprised about how much interest his idea has generated, mostly through word of mouth. While he does not see it as the solution to global hunger, he does believe it is a valuable tool to educate people about the problem. He is also more optimistic now than ever before that he will live to see the day - perhaps in as little as 20 years - when everyone in the world is properly fed.

There are many worthy charities asking for donations to help the needy in Hong Kong and elsewhere in China. After giving them our largesse, and in between celebrating the festive season, we should find time to visit freerice.com.

Those few hundred grains of rice we earn while playing a game may not on their own feed a starving person but, through a combined effort, we can make a modest dent in global hunger. The chances are also good that we will have improved our vocabulary. These are surely gifts we cannot let pass by.

Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor

[email]peter.kamm@scmp.com[/email]


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Engage with Iran to isolate its president


Volker Perthes
Dec 24, 2007           
     
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The recent US National Intelligence Estimate about Iran's nuclear programme and ambitions has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration who, until recently, have been prophets of imminent danger.

For Europeans, the report has not removed, but rather confirmed, the 2003 concerns of Britain, France and Germany that Iran's nuclear programme could eventually give it a military nuclear capability, and that even before that point, it might spark regional nuclear proliferation.

The report also confirmed two assumptions that have since guided Europe's diplomatic approach: Iran reacts to external incentives and disincentives, and taking legitimate Iranian interests into consideration is the best way to influence Iran's leaders. Most Europeans who have been dealing with the issue also assume that Iran is aiming at capacities that would eventually make all options available, including quick development of a nuclear weapon, rather than actually acquiring a weapon.

So concern about Iran's nuclear programme is still justified. The robust diplomatic approach needed to confront the problem must include three components. First, it should be based on a broad international consensus. Second, it should clearly communicate that the issue is proliferation, not the nature of the Iranian regime. Third, any further sanctions should be accompanied by an earnest offer of dialogue and engagement.

By contrast, some US policymakers continue to believe Iran would abandon its enrichment programme if the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions. But a clear-headed analysis indicates that EU sanctions would lead to more trade diversion, with China, Russia, Turkey or Dubai benefiting.

Thus, Europeans favour a new Security Council resolution, even if its measures are weaker than what the US or the EU could impose unilaterally. This would send an effective signal that Iran is in conflict with the entire world community.

Iranians do not like to be isolated. Making it obvious that it is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's policies that are isolating Iran would strengthen the still-fragile anti-Ahmadinejad alliance of pragmatic conservatives and reformers.

Europeans should call for a common policy with the US that focuses on domestic developments in Iran. Both the EU and the US should be prepared to enter direct, comprehensive and unconditional negotiations with Iran.

The best method of strengthening Mr Ahmadinejad, however, appears to be to threaten the country and the regime as a whole. An honest offer of engagement would allow Mr Ahmadinejad's pragmatic opponents to show that it is Iran's president and his policies, not the west, that are at fault.

Volker Perthes is chairman and director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Copyright: Project Syndicate


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Prize and prejudice
The Nobels fascinate us, although they may not be the best measure of merit

Robert Marc Friedman
Dec 27, 2007           
     
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The dance around the golden Nobel medallion began over 100 years ago, and is still going strong. As icon, myth and ritual, the Nobel Prize is well secured. But what do we actually know about the Nobel Prize? Shrouded in secrecy and legend, the prize first became an object for serious scholarly study after 1976, when the Nobel Foundation opened its archives.

Subsequent research by historians of science leaves little doubt: the Nobel medallion is etched with human frailties.

Although many observers accept a degree of subjectivity in the prizes for literature and peace, the science prizes have long been assumed to be an objective measure of excellence. But, from the start, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which awards the physics and chemistry prizes, and the Caroline Institute, which awards those for medicine/physiology, have based their decisions on the recommendations of their respective committees. And the committee members' own understanding of science has been critical in determining outcomes.

From the beginning, the inner world of those entrusted to make recommendations was marked by personal and principled discord over how to interpret Alfred Nobel's cryptic will and to whom prizes should be awarded. While committee members tried to be dispassionate, their own judgments, predilections and interests necessarily entered their work.

Winning a prize has never been an automatic process, a reward for attaining a magical level of achievement. Nominators rarely provided the committees with a clear consensus, and the committees often ignored the rare mandates when a single strongly nominated candidate did appear, such as Albert Einstein for his work on relativity theory. Academy physicists had no intention of recognising this theoretical achievement, "even if the whole world demands it".

Moreover, a simple change in the composition of the committee could decide a candidate's fate. Not until committee strongman C.W. Oseen died in 1944 could the theoretical physicist Wolfgang Pauli - one of the giants of quantum mechanics - receive a prize. Conversely, the Academy of Sciences sometimes rebelled against its committees. Harbouring a grudge, one chemist rallied the academy to block the committee's recommendation for the Russian Dmitry Mendeleyev, who created the periodic table.

Even when all involved tried to rise above pettiness and partiality, selecting winners was always difficult - and remains so. Committee members occasionally confessed privately that, often, several candidates could be found who equally deserved a prize. Unambiguous, impartial criteria for selecting a winner were not at hand - and never will be.

The image of science advancing through the efforts of individual genius is, of course, appealing. Yet, to a greater extent than the prizes allow, research progresses through the work of many.

Brilliant minds do matter, but it is often inappropriate and unjust to limit recognition to so few. The Nobel bylaws do not allow splitting a prize into more than three parts, thereby excluding discoveries that entailed work by more than three researchers, or omitting key people who equally deserved to share in the honour.

Moreover, it has become clear that many important branches of science are not addressed by Alfred Nobel's testament (limited to physics, chemistry, physiology/medicine). Some of the past century's greatest intellectual triumphs, such as those related to the expanding universe and continental drift, have not been celebrated. Environmental sciences - surely of fundamental importance - also come up empty. There is nothing wrong with wanting heroes in science, but we should understand the criteria used to select those who we are asked to revere.

Why do people venerate the Nobel Prize? There is no easy answer. The cult of the prize began even before the first winners were announced. Media fascination whipped up speculation and interest. The creed of the prize did not depend so much on the merit of the winners, as much as the understanding that the prize was a powerful means to gain prestige, publicity and advantage.

Even scientists who frowned on the Swedish committees' limitations and sometimes odd choices nevertheless still nominated and lobbied for candidates, knowing that a winner can draw attention and money to a research speciality, institution or national scientific community.

Is science or society well served by a fixation on prizes and competition? Perhaps once the mystery of the Nobel Prize is reduced, we might reflect on what is truly significant in science.

The soul and heritage of science going back several centuries is far richer than the quest for prizes.

Robert Marc Friedman, professor of the history of science at the University of Oslo, is the author of The Politics of Excellence: Behind the Nobel Prize in Science. Copyright: Project Syndicate


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Promising new start for South Korea


Ralph Cossa
Dec 28, 2007           
     
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The landslide presidential victory of conservative Lee Myung-bak is good news for South Korea, for the United States, for their alliance and - if responded to appropriately and wisely - for North Korea as well.

Mr Lee has made it clear that he is committed to improving North-South relations, but that progress along this front first requires Pyongyang to live up to its denuclearisation promises. This is a positive message that reinforces both the flexibility and firmness contained in Washington's current approach towards Pyongyang. It will bring Washington and Seoul closer than they have been for several years, both in terms of dealing with the North and in terms of the alliance itself.

While Mr Lee and his Grand National Party (GNP) are more conservative than incumbent President Roh Moo-hyun's "progressive" administration, they are not your father's conservatives. The more hardline position, represented in the election by former GNP leader Lee Hoi-chang, scored poorly. It finished a distant third behind Lee Myung-bak and the United New Democratic Party's Chung Dong-young - Mr Roh's former minister of reunification who was, in the eyes of many, overly conciliatory towards the North.

It is hard to imagine Mr Chung or Mr Roh really playing hardball with the North, regardless of its transgressions. By contrast, president-elect Lee has said "full-fledged economic exchanges can start after North Korea dismantles its nuclear weapons". While Mr Roh paid lip service to the concept of reciprocity, Lee Myung-bak seems more serious about expecting it, while remaining clearly committed to the positive aspects of North-South engagement that South Koreans have come to expect and demand.

Lee Hoi-chang, at the other extreme, seemed more comfortable with the school of international diplomacy favoured by America's former UN ambassador, John Bolton, which sees confrontational politics and ultimate regime change in the North as the only viable option.

No doubt, some in Washington will see a conservative victory as an opportunity to revert to the more confrontational - and largely ineffective - policies of the past; this would be a huge mistake. Of course, Pyongyang may leave Washington and Seoul with no other option, if it continues to drag its feet on making a complete declaration of its nuclear programmes and holdings.

The new administration takes the reins in Seoul on February 25, and Pyongyang will be presented with several options. It could revert to form and drag its feet on the denuclearisation process, thus forcing the new president (and the Bush administration) into a more hardline position. Or it could produce a comprehensive list of its nuclear programmes and holdings - locking in the denuclearisation process and the firm, yet flexible and fair, approach that Mr Lee and the Bush administration currently seem to prefer. One hopes Pyongyang makes the right choice.

Ralph A. Cossa is president of Pacific Forum CSIS. Distributed by Pacific Forum CSIS


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Blogging boom sets up stars for bonanza
222 days to go

OLYMPIC COUNTDOWN
Martin Zhou
Dec 30, 2007           
     
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If you're waiting for gossip and the daily thoughts of your favourite athletes about life at the Olympics, chances are you're in for a treat next summer.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) earlier this month softened its stance towards blogs by Olympians during the games.

A recent IOC meeting pledged to lift the restriction on athletes and coaches who are keen to share their first-hand experience at the "Greatest Show on Earth".

The permission is a U-turn on the rules that saw a cyber blackout during the 2004 Athens Games.

An IOC spokeswoman this week declined to comment on the issue, saying the IOC was still mulling over just how it should police the blogs. But she did reveal the IOC was very attracted to the idea of the heaps of free publicity nice blogs would bring, those which would help "communicate" the Olympic message to the world.

The pending approval of blogging among athletes and coaches will be welcomed by many - especially the mainland's sport fraternity, some of whom are rubbing their hands at the opportunity to market their blogs to advertisers.

However, topping the agenda of concern among Chinese leaders is the threat of freedom of expression such freewheeling examples of blogging pose to the authorities.

The Chinese government is keen to project Beijing 2008 as being held in a modern, stable nation full of happy, prosperous, forward-thinking people.

To counter bad publicity, however - grievances issued from all quarters of Chinese society and overseas - China has been strengthening its censorship of domestic and international media over the past two years.

So you can imagine the horror felt by all in the Zhongnanhai government compound at the thought of foreign athletes and coaches - and some nationals - articulating their complaints and insight through first-hand accounts of what really lies behind the glittering Olympic cosmetics, especially those moaning at or criticising the authoritarian regime.

So to what extent have Chinese officials sought to influence the IOC's ongoing discussions about blogs, as it has done on many issues including pollution? The IOC ideally wants a quiet life and has been seen to appease China on many issues.

But not in this case, some observers believe.

"Human rights groups will object to the games being held in China, where free speech is famously nonexistent," Jason Lee Miller, an editor with WebPro News, a website devoted to coverage of online business, wrote in a recent commentary. "Hence, regulating the free speech of athletes probably wouldn't look good. That could add to the IOC's motivation to champion new-found openness."

More threatening than angry Communist leaders, according to Miller, are the complaints from media conglomerates who have shelled out hundreds of millions of dollars to secure broadcasting rights to the games.

Allowing the athletes to blog freely and turn the Olympic village into a reality show of sorts could be seen as undermining the official coverage paid for by media outlets.

Indeed, the 2004 blog embargo was issued days before the games opened in Athens and was believed to have resulted from persistent defiance and complaints from the IOC's media partners.

An IOC press "subgroup" commission recently decided that blogging by athletes would not violate Olympic rules as long as they received no payment, posted their entries as a "diary or journal", and did not use photos, video, or audio obtained at the games.

Yet the rules will also most certainly be ignored on the mainland.

Olympic blogging is set to be big business, several Chinese language portal editors told this column.

Highly popular sites like Sina.com and Sohu.com have already begun to offer tantalising cash prizes for those Chinese athletes who are willing to share their experience as an Olympian.

Most Chinese sports heroes have already developed blogging as a source of income. Major websites rely on celebrity blogs to boost their brand's popularity among netizens.

"The hosting rights of a blog by a national team member in such a popular sport as football usually costs 300,000 yuan a year," said an editor at Sohu.com.

"In 2008, the price will certainly shoot up."

But will those Chinese athletes, known for living in secrecy with intense daily training, be able to set aside time for writing a proper blog entry either before or during the games so as to lay a nest egg once their athleticism gives up?

Moreover, without normal education from an early age, can mainland athletes actually write a sellable blog?

There are ways, said the Sohu editor.

"It has almost become a trend for celebrity athletes to hire a ghost blog writer," he said. "The writer will emulate the athletes' verses and style and sometimes it works very well."

As for censorship, the government may not have to concern itself too much with their type-happy sports stars. Self-censorship, like self-preservation and a few extra yuan, is the name of the game for blogging mainland athletes.


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Roads apart
China's plans for its own satellite navigation system have stunned its partners at Europe's Galileo project

BEHIND THE NEWS
Yojana Sharma
Jan 02, 2008           
     
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When China announced early last month that its home-grown Beidou-2 satellite navigation system would be used to guide traffic and monitor sports venues during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, there was astonishment in European capitals.

China has been the most important non-European partner in the European Union's £á3.4 billion (HK$38.9 billion) Galileo satellite navigation project. Beijing was to invest a substantial £á230 million in Galileo and, as a spin-off of the partnership, European companies hoped to have access to the lucrative mainland transport and communications market.

But with Chinese officials implying signals from the Beidou-2 system would be freely available to its citizens and to countries in Asia who sign up to use the Chinese system for their navigation devices, Beidou-2 would compete with Galileo for lucrative mass-market applications in Asia.

"If China were to push ahead on a global civilian system we would review our relationship because we do not have an interest in helping them into the mass market," said Paul Verhoef, head of the Galileo programme at the EU Commission's headquarters in Brussels. "In a sense, it is a competition and it will have an impact on some of the things we do with them."

China's participation in Galileo was originally to build ground stations on the mainland to receive Galileo signals and extend the European system's global reach. China also hoped to launch Galileo satellites, although it has been beaten to that by Russia.

Satellite navigation is already ubiquitous in Europe and the US. Cheap hand-held and dashboard devices provide drivers with accurate directions to any destination. The technology, rapidly replacing maps, is now being incorporated into mobile phones - a lucrative mass-market application.

Satellite navigation has also become a valuable tool in identifying and dispersing traffic jams, for port and air traffic control, for tracking forest fires and giving advance warning of tsunamis. The technology can even be used to track giant panda movements.

For now the world uses the freely available GPS (global positioning system) developed and owned by the US military. European politicians have always worried it could be switched off whenever the US military wished, with dire consequences for industries that have begun to rely on it. These fears led to the launch in 2000 of the ambitious civilian Galileo project which envisages 40 to 50 ground stations around the world.

EU Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot said in November that Galileo would "ensure the economic and strategic independence" of the EU. But it seemed Galileo would collapse amid bickering over the spoils between private companies in Europe. Late last month, the EU rode to the rescue, taking the project out of private hands, providing a cash injection from the EU Commission's budget to ensure its survival. It is far from clear what will happen to the collaboration agreements with non-EU countries.

The mainland first joined Galileo in 2003 when EU ministers regarded China as an important emerging economic power. "We signed up with China when it was not clear what the implications would be," Mr Verhoef said. "We soon realised that if you allow such co-financing you get into complicated discussions on co-ownership.

Now that it is clear that the only ownership can be in Europe, we need a different kind of agreement."

EU officials admitted that China was unhappy with being treated as a junior partner and had downgraded its involvement. But at the same time China made it clear it wanted to be part of the newly resurrected Galileo. The first Chinese delegation arrived in Brussels on December 19, less than three weeks after the EU took over the financing of Galileo.

"The political co-operation with Galileo was always a really big thing in China," Mr Verhoef said. "It was part of China's strategic relationship with Europe - part of a strategic partnership against the US."

Steven Tsang Yui-sang, a lecturer in Chinese politics at Oxford University, said: "Galileo is a very powerful back-up system for China's military. The US may destroy Chinese satellites but they will not destroy Galileo."

There is another reason why China needs Galileo: its space scientists still can't match the quality of European engineering. "Technology transfer is an important consideration," Mr Verhoef said.

The EU's main aim is to ensure the EU and Chinese civilian systems are compatible. An accord was signed with the US last year to change the signal of GPS-3 and alter Galileo to make them interoperable. "By doing this we are trying to make Galileo more interesting for the end user. They don't want disruption or interruption. Even with China's civilian system we need to make sure it is interoperable," Mr Verhoef said.

EU officials downplay the military applications of satellite navigation, preferring to focus on Galileo's economic benefits. But defence experts say it is clear satellite navigation is the cornerstone of the next generation of smart missiles and will also pinpoint troop and armaments movements.

"I believe this project will have to have military implications at some point," said Ana Gomes, the Portuguese member of the European Parliament who led a recent debate on the funding of Galileo.

Galileo is intended to be accurate in positioning to within one metre, compared with five metres for GPS and 10 metres for Beidou-2 - as recently revealed by Xinhua.

Galileo has already spurred the US to upgrade GPS and Russia to modernise its own Glonass system. "Galileo's accuracy is more useful for military or intelligence purposes than for commercial uses," said Richard North, an adviser on Galileo to the British parliament.

"Part of the very great attraction for China to be associated with the Galileo project is the transfer to Beidou of military technology. It is hard to see how it can be stopped," Dr North said.

Both Taiwan, which has been lobbying the European Parliament on Galileo and EU-China relations this year, and the US have been putting pressure on the EU to reduce collaboration with China for that reason.

Ironically, the change to a publicly funded Galileo has pushed the economic benefits to the background in favour of its military use. "In the beginning it was true Galileo was a civilian, commercial undertaking, but after all the delays and with the public funding the security and military rationale has become stronger," said Jose Carlos Matias, a Macau-based expert on China's involvement in Galileo.

EU officials argue that Galileo's public regulated service (PRS), which involves the greatest accuracy, is encrypted and available only to organisations such as the European Police Agency (Europol), the European Anti-Fraud office, emergency response organisations such as the Maritime Safety Agency and EU peacekeeping forces.

"The Europeans have always said the high-level PRS signal would not be available to China. Frankly, no one believes them," Dr North said. "If Chinese scientists have the architecture of the system, which they must do, they can work it out to crack the code."

Jonathan Holslag, of the Brussels Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies and an adviser to the EU on China affairs, said: "It is obvious China's [Beidou-2] project is based on European technology. The Chinese know the European technical codes and standards. They take it as a point of departure for their own project."

During the December 5-6 EU-China summit in Beijing the EU stopped short of accusing China of stealing Galileo technology. Dr Holslag said EU delegates instead linked China's continued participation in Galileo to general improvements on intellectual property protection.

"Chinese collaboration on Galileo subverts the whole notion of an [EU arms] embargo," Dr North said. "It's obvious that satellite navigation technology will add to China's military capability."

However, Mr Verhoef said adequate safeguards had always been in place. "We knew when we started with China that they wanted to build their own military system. We don't want to provide technology for it. There is a very strict technology transfer regime."

This is not simply to comply with the EU embargo on arms sales since 1989 but because the EU does not want to jeopardise relations with the US.

"We have sound political and economic reasons - we don't want Washington to stop the sale of US components for Galileo," Mr Verhoef said.

There is every indication that the EU wants to avoid wrangles over technology transfer and make up for time lost. Mr Barrot said the November funding agreement would allow the EU system to be operational by 2013 - five years later than planned.

Beijing now says Beidou-2 will not be fully operational before the Shanghai World Fair in 2010. The use of the system at the Olympics will be very limited.

"The announcement about the use of [Beidou-2] at the Olympics may simply be symbolic," Mr Matias said. "It takes time to deploy a constellation of satellites."

China has five satellites in geostationary orbit. Galileo, like GPS, envisages a global system involving 30 satellites. China might be sending a signal to the EU that it wanted to be treated as an equal on satellite navigation rather than a junior partner, he said.

"Special navigation is an indication of power" on the world stage, Mr Barrot said when the EU took over Galileo's funding last month.

Certainly, that is not lost on the Chinese authorities.


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Only time will loosen the tycoons' grip


OBSERVER
Alex Lo
Jan 03, 2008           
     
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Democratic critics have blasted Beijing and its rubber-stamp parliament's decision to delay full democracy for the city for at least another decade. But Hong Kong may well need that much time to gradually undermine the political influence and economic stranglehold that its most powerful but reactionary indigenous group has wielded over the city's life: its ageing tycoons and their offspring, who are being groomed to take over their business empires.

As a group, these people have consistently resisted meaningful constitutional changes. Even those who have not openly opposed universal suffrage have shown no enthusiasm for it. PCCW (SEHK: 0008) chief Richard Li Tzar-kai is just about the only second-generation businessman who has come out in support of full democracy. Yet the way he has treated minority shareholders over the years - since taking over Hongkong Telecom during the height of the dotcom bubble - raises questions about his democratic credentials.

Even a child knows that "one person, one vote" is not compatible with functional constituencies, which allow some local residents to have more than one vote. But Beijing and the National People's Congress Standing Committee have a tough balancing act to play. By leaving Hong Kong to sort out the details of its electoral arrangements, they left open the possibility of retaining functional constituencies in some form even after 2020. This was a nod to assure entrenched business groups that their vested interests were not being ignored.

In 10 to 13 years, the current leaders in Beijing who have given the green light to universal suffrage in the city, and possibly even a few of their successors, will have left the scene. The mainland can only become more open politically if its current economic trajectory continues.

Hong Kong's democrats and their allies will, hopefully, be replaced with younger, fresher, more charismatic and imaginative democratic leaders.

Meanwhile, our most famous tycoons will probably not be around when Hong Kong holds its first fully democratic election, but their children and grandchildren will. They are being groomed to take over the family firms, most of which are publicly listed. These companies dominate most of the key sectors of the local economy - ports, supermarkets and other retailers, power utilities, transport, medium-sized and smaller banks and, of course, the all-important property development.

This business succession process on the basis of family ties has been going on for years. The fact that it is seen as a matter of course in Hong Kong, with few eyebrows raised, says a lot about the backwardness of our supposed status as a global financial hub. If anecdotal evidence serves, the children have none of the business acumen and people skills of their fathers. But there is no doubt that they have the same arrogance, and feel the same sense of superiority and an even stronger sense of entitlement. Their politics, which is rarely ever aired in public, is likely to be just as reactionary.

Fortunately, the princes and princesses are unlikely to wield the same power and influence behind the scenes in any way that will remotely resemble their fathers or grandfathers. They will, hopefully, have neither the connections nor networks to do so. Either their businesses will go into decline or they will become more professional, to meet international standards, with senior managers hired from outside the families.

Either way, the elitism characteristic of Hong Kong for decades, which has fused political and economic powers, is likely to be further eroded with each generation. The local business royalties should go the way of the families of the so-called robber barons of the United States in the past century - retaining their wealth and exercising great philanthropy, but with diminishing political clout. This could only be for the good of Hong Kong.

Alex Lo is a senior writer at the Post


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