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Underweight on HSBC

發表於 2007-4-23 11:23 AM 資料 短消息  
Underweight on HSBC  


1. RSI over 90,,,

2. Reach 2007 high but trading volume dropping,,,

3. Sell in/before May and walk away,,,

I expect to see HSBC to correct to at least 138-140 in May/June 2007

OVER

P.S. currently I have no options, warrants and derivatives regarding HSBC.

It is just an opinion mainly from a technical point of view and my experience of stock trend,,,

HSBC's p/e 13.x is okay, but it is overbought currently and negative factors are still there, but diluted by the China factor and recent collection by Arab big player,,, This year I still look for +155 but some correction maybe needed first,,,

This morning I sold HSBC (at 145.4 & 145.5) to underweight,,,

[ 本帖最後由 不惑之男 於 2007-4-23 12:49 PM 編輯 ]

發表於 2007-4-23 03:52 PM 資料 短消息  
回覆 #12 Artemis@ET 的帖子


HSBC is overbought after reaching +142, but an overbought stock could be overbought again, again and again, until all good factors and momentum are gone,,, and the timing should be very close from most TA I examined,,,

I'm not trying to catch the ceiling, but cut-win at reasonable level and wait for a correction and lower entry point,,,

138 - 140 (without extraordinary good or bad news) will be my next entry point,,,

I think hsbc can rise to 150 within 3 months

I sold a call warrant 3 days too early, and missed a profit of over 300K

The trend on HSBC has changed to favourable.
- Bank merger wave in Europe
- Middle East long term investor as 2nd large shareholder
- 2nd morgage provision gone

[quote]原帖由 [i]Dtm[/i] 於 2007-4-24 14:05 發表
The trend on HSBC has changed to favourable.
- Bank merger wave in Europe
- Middle East long term investor as 2nd large shareholder
- 2nd morgage provision gone [/quote]

yes, that's why it went up from 132.x to 145.x even after 2.8 dividend! Taken into account of the dividend factor, it goes up about +13% already within 4-5 weeks :)

These factors are reflecting in the current price,,, my year end target is still 155, but correction is needed at present,,,

Good factors are those unexpected or those still exerting positive effects, all these factors you mentioned are known in this universe,,, kekeke,,,,

Only basic factors known to all could have positive effect, that's the key to value-investing,,,,

Besides, the 2nd mortgage problem is not gone, but currently US employment and housing market condition can give it a break, anyone who live in US will know that the realty bubble is very critical recently, very easy to be burst,,,

Big player buying stocks are slightly positive, but not an excuse for frying such big elephant up,,,

Bank merger wave is positive to those involved, usually the "child", not the mother, HSBC has growing problem to further acquire Chinese banking stocks [it probably can't maintain the 19.9% holding of Bank of Communications after launching a-share], search relevant news in yahoo to enrich your understanding of the situation la,,,,

With 13 p/e and a coming few percent growth, HSBC is still cheap, good for long-term investment,,, if I'm retiring tomorrow, I'll definitively collect +20 more lots HSBC in my portfolio for stable dividend, but too bad I still have to work,,, :D:D:D

[quote]原帖由 [i]eatallcheesecak[/i] 於 2007-4-23 19:07 發表
I sold a call warrant 3 days too early, and missed a profit of over 300K [/quote]

Good job, brother, would you mind telling us which call you'd traded?

First I am not here to encourage people speculating on warrants as it is very high risk.

Bad job indeed, if I had held the warrant (9X39) 3 more days, over 300K more would have been made.

As said before, the trend of HSBC is turning to favourable.  But many guy still insist that it will down below $140.  No dreaming please.....my love.

My view is that HSBC is on an upward trend, but when it reached 145.x 2 weeks ago, the stock was overbought,,, so underweight was a technical move,,,, and it did adjust to 143....

But

1. the so-called good news keep appearing as excuses to fry it up further
2. other big players join in to collect it
3. RSI of HSBC drops a little bit to 79 recently

So HSBC regains momentum after getting back to 145.x this week and correction is over,,,,

138-140 never come because of 1 & 2, these extra news and factors invalidate my target price and shorten the extent of its correction...

In other investment site, I'm not just suggesting to underweight HSBC, but also to collect 480 (at 4.5x) [now it went up to 5.08] and 635 [from 1.09 to 1.15+.05 dividend],,, both went up more than 10%...


OVER

[quote]原帖由 [i]小花至愛[/i] 於 2007-5-4 05:50 發表
My view is that HSBC is on an upward trend, but when it reached 145.x 2 weeks ago, the stock was overbought,,, so underweight was a technical move,,,, and it did adjust to 143....

But

1. the ... [/quote]

Whats your plan next week:P:P:P:wondering::wondering:

[quote]原帖由 [i]cyberken[/i] 於 2007-5-5 05:25 發表


Whats your plan next week:P:P:P:wondering::wondering: [/quote]

Last week I'd collected 3988 at 3.93, 3.91 and 3.87... now 5% gain....

also 3988's call 6088 at .16x, .15x & .13x,,, sold at .166, .12x, .235 and .27... juicy profit...

:)

still another good choice of 3988's call warranty?

[quote]原帖由 [i]cyberken[/i] 於 2007-5-15 09:34 發表
still another good choice of 3988's call warranty? [/quote]

I like to play short-term call (1-2 month expiry date) with low/no premium [holding for days or even weeks for +50% profit]

or the longest day call for long term "investment"

Currently 3988 had not specified its dividend cut off date,,, so better wait for the dividend factor and some minor correction to start calling,

but whenever 3988 is below 4 dollars calling won't be too dangerous,,, my guess is 3988 should close at around 4.1x - 4.2x by the end of May....

[quote]原帖由 [i]小花至愛[/i] 於 2007-5-15 20:17 發表


I like to play short-term call (1-2 month expiry date) with low/no premium

or the longest day call for long term "investment"

Currently 3988 had not specified its dividend cut  ... [/quote]

Good plan
:applause::applause:

Consensus is that 17 buys, 17 neutral and 4 sells.  The latest research update is from Credit Suisse, with a neutral rating and target price of 160

*** 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽 ***

*** 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽 ***

Current recommendation for long term investment: collect 3988 at around 4 dollar...

My 2007 target... 5 - 5.2

and 2008 target... +6

Previously I am not interested in any Chinese banking stocks except drawing cheap IPO, but their 2006 result are really remarkable...

After careful deliberation I'd bought heavy stuff of 3988 after seeing its result at 3.8x and 3.9x,,, I suppose its growth in profit would be +25% for 2-3 year....

with 25% growth, a 6 dollar price by the end of 2008 has only 17 p/e

with 30% grwoth , 6 dollar price's p/e is only 15.x

with 40% growth, 6 dollar price p/e iwould be lower than HSBC...

Don't sell it before 5 dollar anyway. the olympic factor, the investment fever and QDII are extremely positive for 3988...

OVER

小花至愛

Dear FaFa
I hv some 1398 ICBC since early March 2007 @4.57 and ever since then dropped to $4.27 now, what is your advice....
should I still keep it or wait until a certain price point and sell it and when ?  FYI, whenever I buy stocks, the market came down !!

[quote]原帖由 [i]LoserII[/i] 於 2007-5-20 09:23 發表
Dear FaFa
I hv some 1398 ICBC since early March 2007 @4.57 and ever since then dropped to $4.27 now, what is your advice....
should I still keep it or wait until a certain price point and sell it ... [/quote]

Hi Mike, 1398 has decent growth like other Chinese banks, its current price is reasonable and you may consider average more around 4.2x, and in the 3rd quarter I think it will get back to your purchase price, so better not sell it unless you have better option available,,,

To:- Fa San re: 1398

Thanks for the advice.  1398 todays price 4.19, if it remains or lower tomorrow will buy 25% more of this stock to average out (I don't have the courage to buy larger number, may be because this is "House Wife" style.
One more question, I lost many chances in HSBC at low prices such as 90.00 few years ago or lately @135.00  since todays price is 144.60 should I buy one or two hands ?

[quote]原帖由 [i]LoserII[/i] 於 2007-5-22 10:31 發表
Thanks for the advice.  1398 todays price 4.19, if it remains or lower tomorrow will buy 25% more of this stock to average out (I don't have the courage to buy larger number, may be because this is ... [/quote]

buying HSBC is always okay given its prudential management and strength, the questions you should consider before collecting a stock are...

1. Would there be a correction within 1-2 months?
2. Which price you will buy HSBC (or other stocks) comfortably?

For me, 1 is very likely
and
2 around 140....

Ask yourself these questions and decide for yourself la, I can't decide for you.... :)

FaFa Re: 1398

Bought 1398 at 4.18 today to everage out, after this the averaged price is 4.49 no choice but have to wait !
Did not buy any HSBC, wait for low $140

Fa Fa

Dear Fafa
Remenber my statement ?  "FYI, whenever I buy stocks, the market came down".  It happened again today
1398 dropped to $4.11 after I bought some.  If this is the fact, then stock market should drop heavily soon !!

I think the QDII effect is ignored totally and the market is digesting last Friday's three measures,,, but I saw VERY STRONG purchase of 3988 around 3.84-3.86 today before the close, but I hadn't watched 1398,,, but at this level I am willing to further collect both 1398 and 3988,,,

No need to worry, 1 year from now 20-30% increase in their stock price is VERY reasonable expectation, providing their profit can go up about 20%...

[[i] 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-5-25 16:54 編輯 [/i]]