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HSI movement in May & beyond!

[size=4]1. After 777 drop, I created post to indicate that correction is over, c wave is a complete non-sense, advising strong BUY on property & utilities stocks.... BINGO  

2. At around 19500, I created post to suggest index will reach 20000 very soon, no need to take profit before 20500... BINGO again   

3. At above 20000, I made post indicating that big hongs were collecting from 19500 - 20400, so there was no need to worry about dropping below 20000 very soon, and 21000 will be seen within 2 weeks.... DONE  

Now my expectation is as follows:

From the trading pattern, big hongs activities, charts and signals seen in these two weeks, HSI will go to 21000 again, probably testing 21500 before another correction in late May or early June,,, :loveliness: :loveliness: :loveliness: :loveliness:


Then it will have a significant correction, probably diving down to 18000-19000 level again,,, and then a final chance for us to get on broad for the final wave of mad bull in late 2007,,, Target: +23000


Please feel free to comment and to post your expectation here.....[/size]

Check out the following links for some of my previous expectations:

1. & 2. 各位A貨沈大仙, 以為反彈再插, 超低能!!!

[url]http://www11.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=3668675&extra=&page=1[/url]

3. 後市我見: 強者有貨, 高處未算高!!!

[url]http://www11.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=3980638[/url]

[quote]原帖由 [i]小花至愛[/i] 於 2007-5-9 23:48 發表
r ... [/quote]
Wow!:o:jaw::reading:

my expectations :
with QDII, the first part of your expectation will come true this week.
market will keep on making new heights in a series of up and downs
any retreat will provide good chance for buying
party becomes hottest when US starts rate cut in early 2008
party probably end around the coming lunar new year
then the bear will come latest by ching ming festival
only fools will buy before the Olympic

[quote]原帖由 [i]ytt[/i] 於 2007-5-13 14:25 發表
my expectations :
with QDII, the first part of your expectation will come true this week.
market will keep on making new heights in a series of up and downs
any retreat will provide good chance  ... [/quote]

Thank you for your expectation,,,

New closing high today as expected,,,

I think rate cut would be started in 3rd or 4th quarter of 2007, but after it shows "positive effect" on the market, the mad bull may come to an end... But let take profit before a recent correction and prepare to embrace the final mad bull in the 3rd or 4th quarter....

Today my 3988 and calls are doing okay... getting a few dozen K profit... if index stays around 21000- 21500 this week, I will start taking profit again before my "expected" correction to around 19000...

OVER

disgree in 2 points :
1. US is using its mouth to strengthen US dollar, so it may not cut rate too early. 3rd quarter a bit remote. 4th quarter 50 : 50
2. Too early now to say whether there's big correction coming

and one reminder ;;; our forecast may be wrong, may be the ugly is coming tomorrow. so always prepare for the worst

Thank you,,,,

1. the recent data about inflation and growth rate suggested that rate cut in 3rd quarter is possible, but I also think 4th quarter is more likely

2. Basically with 15.x -16.x p/e chance for big correction is not likely, but even a moderate 10% would be 2100 index points and a small adjustment of 5-7% would be +1100 - 1500 point

Agree, all stock forecast are tentative and could be wrong, it must also correspond to market activities and big hongs action,,,, today I don't see any one-sided big hongs' distribution,,, from those banking stocks I focussed upon, I see small investors are inclined to take profit rather than buying after 500-600 pts rise, basically the market is still big hongs' fighting with long position being stronger,,,,

Let see if these two week the index can reach 21500 or not,,,

OVER