巿傳匯源果汁(1886)在公開招股首天已錄得逾500倍的超額認購

1000X over-subscription in day 2 is incredible. It may go up to 1500X or more in the last day.

Let says there will be 1500X over-subscription in the last day.
Then there will be around 750X after crawback, and your hitting rate will
be 1/750 = 0.13%.

If 1% hitting, then you need to have 10% gain in day 1 to break even by margin.

If there is only 0.13% hitting, then u need to have 77% gain in order to break even!

No meat to eat this time.


《新股情報》傳匯源果汁(1886)公開發售超購逾千倍
      2007/02/09 17:10

      <匯港通訊>             巿場傳出,踏入第二日招股的匯源果汁(1886)公開招股部份的超額認購已到達1000倍,凍結資金高達2402.4億元,認購情況之熱烈極為誇張。

      市場人士指出,受昨日首日掛牌的阜豐集團(0546)升37%,令不少股民賺錢,加上現大市市況陰晴不定,令散戶認為認購新股較有「保障」及贏面較高,估計市場會更加熱衷於認購新股。

      匯源果汁是次發售總數4億股,其中10%公開發售,僅4000萬股,以每股上限價6元,1倍認購額便等於2.4億元,超購1000倍即凍結2402.4億元。若計及回撥機制的啟動,公開發售部份可分派的股數會升至2億股,中籤比率僅0.5%,即認購200手才中1手。

      不過有市場人士指出,招股翌日認購已逾千倍是匪夷所思的,不過以股民對匯源果汁的認購反應來看,到截止認購時公開發售有逾千倍認購是不足為奇的。

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-2-9 22:17 編輯 ]

800X over-subscription -> 400X over-subscription after crawback ->
hitting rate = 1/400 = 0.25% on average

So share price needs to rise 40% to break even if using margin

[新聞]匯源超額認購八百倍 (明報) 02月 13日 星期二 10:10PM 匯源果汁公開招股今日結束，消息稱，超額認購八百倍，凍結資金一千九百億元。匯源的招股價由4.8元至6元，由於反應熱烈，預期會以上限定價。

60000 * 0.25% = 150 shares. Since 1 lot = 500 shares, so u cannot even get 1 lot if by calculation. See if u can get by lucky draw.