引用:
原帖由 billgoboy 於 2008-1-15 18:00 發表
As of today Jan 15th 2008, #939 closed at $6.13 and #5 closed at $120.8, which stock will you buy? 以今日(2008-1-15)收市價來說，你會買建行還是匯控？
just put aside the future writedown and loss assoicated with the housing, subprime mortgage, CDO, SIV etc (which will be significant and continuing imo)... and no info yet as of its cds, corporate loan situation which is potentially a big shock too
the US and UK business environments are likely to be tanking for the forseeable future (recession is a certainty at a minimum) .. with the previous cash cow of housing, mortgage and cdo business now becoming a huge liabilities, and auto loan and credit card loan defaults will be rising significantly soon too...
so hsbc's future results from the US and UK regions will deteriorate much further imo, now it has no choice but to rely much more on the emerging markets, arab and asia... these markets will also be affected by the US/UK problem to a vary degree probably in the later part of 2008...
so the current price of HSBC is *not necessarily* cheap at all... and its dividend could be slashed too (like citigroup)
#5 definitely not a buy yet... i will sell even at this price as i dont think it will be able to recover to any meaningful degree in the medium future... and the global financial and monetary system is highly stressed right now and could have 'surprise' any day, hence the financial sector is highly risky... i think it is too early to buy low (unless you are trader who buy and sell everyday)...
no opinion about #939
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本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-1-16 13:20 編輯 ]
