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hudgefunder

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1^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 00:30 只看該作者

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調整完成

Contrast to the mass media, I think the HSI correction has finished. The reasons being:

1) The sub-prime write-offs are well publicised, and are factored into the current pricing of assets.

2) Asian, especially Chinese companies are still the first choice for global equity investors.

3) National funds (inc. Chinese funds) are still looking for investment opportunities for their cash.

4) Oil price corrected, and the current oil price has strong support from demands. It is not speculation driven.

5) December rate cut is almost certain.

6) Dollar stablised from the dramatic sliding, and it is on its track to gradual decline (less panic).

[ 本帖最後由 hudgefunder 於 2007-11-13 16:58 編輯 ]

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my_info

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2^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 05:27 只看該作者

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Jackel

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3^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 08:23 只看該作者

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May be a dead cat rebound today and then will test lower levels this/next week

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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peninsula

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4^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 09:18 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hudgefunder 於 2007-11-13 00:30 發表
Contract to the mass media, I think the HSI correction has finished. The reasons being:

Strong YEN, oil and gold prices will cause another round of drop to 25000 (at least).

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hudgefunder

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5^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 12:30 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-11-13 09:18 發表

Strong YEN, oil and gold prices will cause another round of drop to 25000 (at least).

幾時可以開始吸納?

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jingya

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6^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 12:42 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hudgefunder 於 2007-11-13 12:30 發表

幾時可以開始吸納?

重未係時候

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mmr.ren

蒙面人

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7^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 12:50 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-11-13 01:18 發表

Strong YEN, oil and gold prices will cause another round of drop to 25000 (at least).

Yes, 25000 is very likely

人稱無面人

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hardcat

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8^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 13:16 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hudgefunder 於 2007-11-13 00:30 發表
Contract to the mass media, I think the HSI correction has finished. The reasons being:

1) The sub-prime write-offs are well publicised, and are factored into the current pricing of assets.

2 ...

Mostly agreed, the point No. 1 being the only point i might contend, it is true that the subprime write down are well publicised, but the real and catastrophic size of the subprime and credit derivative problem is being suppressed and not well understood by the general public.. and this problem will keep surfacing again and again in the coming year at least, and will actually get worse... credit card loan will be another hot potato too... US and UK heading for recession is a near certainty (the former already so)... and a shockwave/panic in global financial system and global monetary system is a real possibility....

the only thing being that how much these will have effects on China/HK or asia market... which i dunno of course...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2007-11-13 13:20 編輯 ]

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If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a pine tree, worth $4,000-$5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?

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vodkaboy

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9^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 13:49 只看該作者

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If u buy share for long term...u may buy 1/3 ur money now....

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hudgefunder

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10^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 16:48 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2007-11-13 13:16 發表

Mostly agreed, the point No. 1 being the only point i might contend, it is true that the subprime write down are well publicised, but the real and catastrophic size of the subprime and credit ...

China has been diversifying the risk of a US recession, by increasing its economic activities with Europe, South East Asia and Africa. Of course a US recession will have impact on the Chinese companies, but I feel the scale of impact is not as large as most analysts have predicted. Also don't forget that the internal consumption is also supporting China's growth.

For a value investor, the market is clearly overbought. However we must not forget that with the increased liquidity (paper money and credit supply), these cash has to go somewhere. Out of all the asset classes and regions, which class and region do you think is going to give you the highest return over the next few years? I think Chinese enterprises are still the quickest growing companies in the world.

I just don't see where the cash could go, other than Asian (exc. Japan) companies and the commodity sector.

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Jackel

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11^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 17:08 只看該作者

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What about VISTA? Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina. Considered to be the next group of emerging markets after BRICs

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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saintww

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12^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 17:50 只看該作者

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still may be or may not be

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20thcb

why so serious

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13^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 18:43 只看該作者

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我今天早上在blog 寫了,

上次跌四五千點然後DEEP 反彈係因為政策救市, 出現兩個死亡交叉.

今朝出現死亡交叉, 即時deep V反彈.

http://downnote.blogspot.com/2007/11/blog-post_12.html

http://downnote.blogspot.com/2007/11/deep-v.html

[ 本帖最後由 20thcb 於 2007-11-13 11:43 編輯 ]

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peninsula

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14^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-13 19:07 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-11-13 17:08 發表
What about VISTA? Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina. Considered to be the next group of emerging markets after BRICs

Yes, all are good. Any funds to recommend?

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666yancao

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15^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:10 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章

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666yancao

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16^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:10 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章谢谢你的好文章

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666yancao

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17^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:11 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章谢谢你的好文章谢谢你的好文章

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666yancao

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18^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:11 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章

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666yancao

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19^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:11 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章

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666yancao

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20^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:12 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章谢谢你的好文章

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666yancao

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21^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-14 02:12 只看該作者

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谢谢你的好文章谢谢你的好文章

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22^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-18 10:51 只看該作者

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hudgefunder

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23^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-19 00:15 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 82264288 於 2007-11-18 10:51 發表
Hi

How do you see when US dollars trun to stronger and do not decrease the interest rate in Dec?

I think the correct order is 'no rate cut in Dec' then 'stronger USD'. The only meaningful USD rebound would not happen unless the Fed tighten the liquidity. We may not be able to predict anything in short term, but we can have a pretty good guess for longer term. The long term US policy (at least before the 08 new president) is to flush the market with liquidity in an attempt to recover the market from a possible recession. The value of USD and the inflation is NOT on their priority list, and they will continue filling the media with bullsh*t such as 'a strong USD' and 'concerns about inflation'.

Personally I believe this will end badly, but not until the wealth is shifted to the few. Forget about a USD rebound, forget about any meaningful attempt to recover the value of dollar. It is only through the endless printing of US paper money, that the US could fund their wars, write off their debts and sell their crappy mortgage investment to other countries.

Get rid of your USD/HKD, and turn them into commodities and asian stock! The most impressive bull of commodities and Asian stock has not been seen yet.

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Jackel

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24^# 大中小發表於 2007-11-19 08:35 只看該作者

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Probability of rate cut in Dec is 86% ... so i guess u are right...

How to invest in commodities ?? Any fund you recommand, esp. ETF ?

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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