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一星期無黎...挾上29900又插過?~~

Jackel

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26^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 08:47 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-17 21:19 發表

Minimum 25000 but bottom may be 23500.

yeah... maybe... cannot rule that out...
But I am squaring my puts today anyway...
I never try to eat the whole wave...
as long as I can eat some, i am happy...
I am getting some, not much call today, GS
should be announcing their earnings tonight
and should calm the mkt a little...
then I will switch back to puts by Thur at
the latest and BS will annouce their "earnings"
(or loss) on Thur night...

相關搜索目錄: Switch

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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eatallcheesecak

Mycheesecake

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27^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 09:37 只看該作者

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May I know what is "GS" and "BS"? Thanks.

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Jackel

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28^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 09:48 只看該作者

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goldman sachs
bear sterns

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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eatallcheesecak

Mycheesecake

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29^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 10:25 只看該作者

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Thanks.

It seems that you are right in questioning the over-optimisstic of the market 2 weeks ago.

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Jackel

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30^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 11:31 只看該作者

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I was just guessing...
nobody knows anything for sure...

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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eatallcheesecak

Mycheesecake

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31^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 11:46 只看該作者

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I was conservative in before mainly holding HSBC earning approximate 4-5% dividend rate plus 10% price gain in these 2 years 2006-2007which absolute underpreformance in comparing to the HSI , CEI and not mentioning most H-stocks.

But when I finally decided to catch on the final train of H-stocks in full load which at that time HSI at around 28,000-29000 2 months ago, and you know the result...........

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Jackel

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32^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 12:03 只看該作者

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it was just unlucky...

the outlook of china is still good BUT US is now like where we were in 1997...
housing slump causes waves of problems, less earnings for many companies, reduce in consumer spending, etc etc... the last frontline is employment... if this credit crisis hurt employment in US...
bear market for US for sure...

This mesas the less earnings for many Chinese exporters and cause the fall of "rate of growth" (stil growth, but not as fast) of other companies...
That hurt valuations.... so... I am still bearish...

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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eatallcheesecak

Mycheesecake

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33^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 12:15 只看該作者

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I am thinking to regroup & switch my stock assets to Mainland property, not stock but real property.

相關搜索目錄: Switch

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Jackel

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34^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 12:16 只看該作者

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Hope that will work for you... Good luck Bro

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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peninsula

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35^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 21:19 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-18 08:47 發表
yeah... maybe... cannot rule that out...

It's very hard to WIN the most but easy to lose all. So take profit is always good!

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Jackel

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36^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 22:31 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-18 21:19 發表

It's very hard to WIN the most but easy to lose all. So take profit is always good!

Uncle 4 is adjusting his outlook for HSI (actually, who cares !?)

China is approving more and more QDII products...
some extra support for HSI and CEI next year ?

I think I will increase my CEI puts as CEI approaches
50 days MA.

You have any plans, Pen ?

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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peninsula

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37^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 22:34 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-18 22:31 發表
Uncle 4 is adjusting his outlook for HSI (actually, who cares !?)
China is approving more and more QDII products...
some extra support for HSI and CEI next year ?

My cash is waiting to get in at 24000 or below. I think the fall is not over due to continued sub-prime problems globally.

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Jackel

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38^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-18 22:56 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-18 22:34 發表

My cash is waiting to get in at 24000 or below. I think the fall is not over due to continued sub-prime problems globally.

you patientce will be rewarded....

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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hardcat

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39^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-19 09:58 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-18 22:31 發表

Uncle 4 is adjusting his outlook for HSI (actually, who cares !?)

.

A while ago, i was always wondering how Uncle 4 could be so bulllish in the stock market in view of the unraveling global financial/banking situation.. either his analysts underestimate/ignorant/incompetent of the global financial market problem or he has some hidden motive to be so bullish.... imho, the credit crunch cant really be fixed by concerted injections of central banks nor making the money cheap (lower rate) nor some bogus and unconstitutional mortage relief plan by the US Fed.. it is not so much about liquidity as insolvency of the banking system... i think the worst crisis is yet to come - with some earthquake or meltdown of proper intensity.. as we are talking about the popping of the unprecedented and massive global credit bubble and US housing bubble... and the unwinding of fraudulent and highly leveraged credit derivatives market...

If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a pine tree, worth $4,000-$5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?

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Jackel

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40^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-19 12:47 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2007-12-19 09:58 發表

A while ago, i was always wondering how Uncle 4 could be so bulllish in the stock market in view of the unraveling global financial/banking situation.. either his analysts underestimate/ignoran ...

Some believe that "window dressing" has already begun...
but...
it looks more like "window shopping" to me...

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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peninsula

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41^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-19 20:24 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-19 12:47 發表
Some believe that "window dressing" has already begun...
but...
it looks more like "window shopping" to me...

Looks like bloodbath is unavoidable.

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Jackel

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42^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-19 22:21 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-19 20:24 發表

Looks like bloodbath is unavoidable.

Morgan Stanley Posts Loss After $9.4B 4th-Qtr Writedown, Gets $5B Investment From China

60% of my plan is working...

MS's worse than expected write down is a bonus to me...

I am waiting for the last 2 bids of news:
BS's result

and maybe more control measures from China

to pull the markets down further...

I feel than most big investors like Pen yourself won't be interested at HK market unless HSI fall to around 23,000 pts or lower...

相關搜索目錄: Investment

有套日劇叫"BIG MONEY", (原作: 波浪上的魔術師), 裏面個股壇老前輩同他的徒弟講食鯛燒(たいやき, 魚型豆沙餅), 唔好連魚尾, 魚頭都唸住食埋, 因為D餡係中間同埋好容易哽死,意思即係話, Long 又好 Short又好都o吾好唸住賺個升浪/跌浪到賺盡…
我都好同意, 但人人都會貪

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peninsula

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43^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-21 19:42 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-19 22:21 發表
Morgan Stanley Posts Loss After $9.4B 4th-Qtr Writedown, Gets $5B Investment From China
60% of my plan is working... MS's worse than expected write down is a bonus to me... :appla ...

I will start to buy at @25000. HSI may never reach 23000 unless global melt-down.

相關搜索目錄: Investment

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hardcat

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44^# 大中小發表於 2007-12-23 14:27 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-19 20:24 發表

Looks like bloodbath is unavoidable.

There might not necessarily be a bloodbath in nominal term... but in inflation adjusted term.. yes... will get worse and worse...

For the US stock market, one possibility is a collapse at some point in future...

Another possibility is that the Dow drift sideway, probably 'orderly' adjusting downwards a bit... This latter possibility might be more likely imo because the Fed and central banks of the world are creating money out of thin air on an epic scale, trying to reflate the bubble... it might just work as there was never before money creation on such massive scale.. 500B here, 300B there... coupling with low interest rate... maybe we will not see the deflation that usually accompanies credit contraction/destruction like the old days would have... as printing machines are central banks' best friend now =) what we will likely have is stagflation, and hyperinflation for the worst case... and also you have Sovereign Wealth Fund looking to dump their USD (saudi has loads of petrodollar, china has 1.4 trillions of reserve) without at the same time dragging USD further down in value.. this is a win win situation for SWF.. they get their asset on a very favorable terms, yet unloaded some significant amount of ever devaluing USD...

whatever 'flation' we will get... the DOW has always been collapsing in real term (inflation adjusted) for the last several years, and for the foreseeable future... the printing machines can only do so much to prevent the nominal price from collapsing...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2007-12-23 14:35 編輯 ]

相關搜索目錄: Printing

If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a pine tree, worth $4,000-$5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?

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peninsula

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45^# 大中小發表於 2008-1-1 21:59 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2007-12-23 14:27 發表
There might not necessarily be a bloodbath in nominal term... but in inflation adjusted term.. yes... will get worse and worse...
For the US stock market, one possibility is a collapse at ...

If USD becomes paper money instead of being leading currency, real blood bath and massive depression will be unavoidable.

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