[原創] 1/10黃金

1/10黃金


高盛預期2008年美聯儲將降息至2.5％。由于房價不斷下滑，屋主承受資產縮水的壓力，銀行收緊銀根，導致消費者支出大幅萎縮。美國房市的衰退和信貸市場動蕩影響至整個美國經濟，高盛經濟學家鑒于美國經濟研究團隊報告后指出美國經濟今年將陷入衰退。典型的經濟衰退現象為連續2個季度經濟活動萎縮，而此次美國經濟衰退的周期可能是2－3個季度。但據預測此次經濟衰退約占GDP總額的0.5％，和以往的經濟衰退相比，造成的相對而言比較溫和。美聯儲正在控制通脹壓力，繼續降息力保經濟，以及布什政府和國會通過減稅，都將確保經濟不受到更深層次的傷害。一旦降息，美元走軟將刺激美國出口增長，削減貿易赤字，有助于經濟從衰退中恢復。

世界最大國營石油公司沙特阿美石油公司近日宣布，提高2月份對美國出口石油的售價。沙特原油分阿拉伯重油、阿拉伯中質油、阿拉伯輕油、阿拉伯特輕油、阿拉伯超輕油五種，其中超輕油價格最高。對美國客戶來說，從今年2月開始，上述5種原油的價格將全面提高，每桶上漲2.5美元到2.8美元不等。另外，油價的連續上漲刺激更多投資者將目光從股市轉向油市。

國際黃金市場，中國黃金期貨產品在上海期貨交易所上市，中國的黃金需求一直被國際貴金屬交易商看好，但由于中國黃金市場的結構單一，缺乏投資交易平臺和便捷的交易方式，所以一直在國際的黃金定價及黃金的供求影響力上處于被動地位。此次中國證監會批準上海期貨交易所掛牌黃金期貨產品，雖然在個人投資交易方式上還存在一些限制，但已經表明了中國開始有計劃的參與到國際貴金屬交易的動作更近一步。早在2002年10月，由中國人民銀行主持的上海黃金交易所成立，就拉開了中國開放貴金屬交易的大門。有待將來中國不斷開放改革，未來中國貴金屬市場將佔一重要地位。

昨日倫敦黃金在成交量小幅增加情況下先升後跌突破890美元，及後出現大幅下跌完全板回升幅，可見900美元關口之壓力不少，預期金價突破900美元前，可先作一定幅度之整固，現階段先看能否下破869美元，上方阻力892.5,900*906,914**，下方支持872,869,866,856*850**

短期操作：880沽出，止損883，目標869.7，目標二864。

請嚴守止損。

I just buy 1818.

Good or bad?

It is not just global economic/financial stability is under stress, Geopolitical situation might get much worse too...

do we suppose to believe that some speedboats from Iran could harrass the destroyer, cruiser, and frigate of the US? and Iran has just released its own version of the event, and claiming that the US doctored the video... believe what you will...

There is a possibility (maybe 50/50?) of US attacking Iran, to do that they need some phony pretext (like Iraq's WMD)... So the US need to manufacture 'crisis', this kind of event serve to set up Iran as the provoker, and legitimize any future US aggressions as some sort of retaliation or punishment for Iran's provocation...

This war against Iran has long been planned by neocon years ago... they are just bidding their time for the right circumstances before acting..  This war is now more desirable partly because of the need to divert the public's attention from the collapse of the US economy, so they need some monster (or scapegoat) for the drama in the name of justice/democracy/freedom or whatever label you like... also partly because of the US military-industrial complex (they are listed company too), where their business is killing people for profit... their business model is based on endless wars, because war need lots of expensive ammunition and associated logistics and services, etc... and ammunition is a hugely profitable consumables... and of course, also because of the OIL obviously, so you dont see US bother with North Korea, cos they dont have Oil..

what are the implication of all these??

Thank you for your advice