and as things stand now, it is not just the subprime anymore, subprime is more like the appetizer for the bigger crisis to come, one of them is the developing CDS crisis...
most bond insurers are extremely leveraged, e.g. ACA has capital of 425M insuring 69B of corporate and mortgage debt... many of those corporate junk bond, CDO, SIV risk are being insured this way... if the insurers default, then the counterparties will have to carry the loss (i.e. mostly wall street firms and bankers)...
we now have 45 Trillion of CDS outstanding, and bond insurers and insurances getting downgraded lately... the CDS loss could easily be hundreds of billions...
i do believe so far as the US is concerned, there will at least be a recession/depression first (could be brief depending on the printing machine), then followed by (hyper)inflation... inflating away the debts is the only way they can pay up the debt... the continuing USD debasement in future is a foregone conclusion imo, this will continue until its eventual destruction, to be replaced by a new currency 'amero' for North American Union (US+Canada+mexico) ... the US is essentially bankrupted, the way the financial system work wholly depend on the faith and credit people have on the US... if that faith weaken or shaken, this will be a threat to the whole world's financial system...
i dont know how much or how fast the magnitude of its impact will have on hk/china or asia.. it could take more time for the full effect to play out both in the US and worldwide...
[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-1-21 17:16 編輯 ]
相關搜索目錄: Printing
If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a pine tree, worth $4,000-$5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?
