[檔案] 小心...5號仔...滙豐 part 2 - 供股

hktigerwoods

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1^# 大中小發表於 2009-3-5 15:29 只看該作者

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小心...5號仔...滙豐 part 2 - 供股

大家好,我上年開始睇得5號仔好淡,
成績表就派左la,

由現在向前再看, 我們全都知道bad debt ratio會升
但看#5不能只看profit and loss account..同 balance sheet...
#5有CDS exposure HKD10萬億...

呢d係off balance sheet...
我不知道#5的CDS有幾多會中招...
如果將來claim ratio等如1.5%...
那麼#5在CDS會輸2007整年profit...
如果claim ratio等如10%...
那麼#5在CDS會輸6年profit... ??????

所以我認為...
#5今次供幾多股已不重要...

問題係...
#5以後仲要供幾多次股???

所以如果CDS claim ratio 惡化...
撥備一定唔夠...

咁2009年或以後要唔要供???

[ 本帖最後由 hktigerwoods 於 2009-3-5 07:34 編輯 ]

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小餓狼

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2^# 大中小發表於 2009-3-6 10:59 只看該作者

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唉, 冇眼睇.......我59蚊買入...咁就唔見左1/3勒

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kathywonder

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3^# 大中小發表於 2009-3-6 11:47 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 hktigerwoods 於 2009-3-5 15:29 發表
大家好,我上年開始睇得5號仔好淡,
成績表就派左la,

由現在向前再看, 我們全都知道bad debt ratio會升
但看#5不能只看profit and loss account..同 balance sheet...
#5有CDS exposure HKD10萬億...

呢d係 ...

Personally think, it' s just a beginning 'til the bad news in Europe comes out, that's nowhere can hide(I mean the bad bad news.) , and maybe...I said maybe, like what u mentioned b4 the 2nd wave of (供股) may make the price HSBC drop rapidly. I really dunno, but better stay safe and keep the cash. Plus, wanna bring out the point which's.......can we trust the bank nowaday?? See the 1st the Citigroup in US, then the Royal Scottland Bank in England, and the bankruptcy of Iceland, and now the HSBC......

We changed the world we made it ours to hold,
but dreams are made for those who really try,
this losing you is real,but I still feel you here inside.....