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中期油價、油股走勢

FeiJai

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1^# 大中小發表於 2006-11-30 12:04 只看該作者

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中期油價、油股走勢

唔知大家對油價係未來3個月既走勢點"目弟"?

11/29日一月期油係紐約收$62.46﹐係2個月來既新高。原因係之前大家都估錯今年美國既天氣﹐以為會好凍﹐結果係不尋常地溫暖﹐導致取暖用油使用量大跌。而昨晚公佈既石油庫存意外下跌﹐因而令油價勁升。今日開市幾只油股都抽高。

大家覺得呢個係冬季油價上昇既開始﹐定係短期抽高?

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peninsula

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2^# 大中小發表於 2006-11-30 13:39 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 FeiJai 於 2006-11-30 12:04 PM 發表
唔知大家對油價係未來3個月既走勢點"目弟"?

Should have strong support at US$55, esp. with winter coming up (as you correctly stated).

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potatogundam

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3^# 大中小發表於 2006-11-30 15:15 只看該作者

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現在天氣好熱, 想油價大升都好難

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peninsula

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4^# 大中小發表於 2006-11-30 15:17 只看該作者

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原帖由 potatogundam 於 2006-11-30 03:15 PM 發表
現在天氣好熱, 想油價大升都好難

We are talking about USA and Europe!

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potatogundam

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5^# 大中小發表於 2006-11-30 15:21 只看該作者

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2006-11-30 03:17 PM 發表

We are talking about USA and Europe!

USA and Europe, 天氣都比往年熱呀

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FeiJai

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6^# 大中小發表於 2006-11-30 23:13 只看該作者

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2006-11-30 05:39 AM 發表

Should have strong support at US$55, esp. with winter coming up (as you correctly stated).

On Oct 5th, I did say that oil price was heading to $55... And that "Taking out the political factors, as time approaches December around Thanks Giving, oil price will likely to be up again, i.e. over $60."

Well, I don't remember if it really hit $55, but now as of Nov 30th, it's over $62.00 again.

The question as of now is, is this a short-term "technical hike" or is this due to change of demand and supply? Weather is change in the US, i.e. geting colder (see http://www.weather.com/newscente ... rom=wxcenter_news). But I don't see a significant change in demand coming up.

On the 29th, suppose Wall Street analyst surprisingly found oil inventory had gone down more than they had projected in last week, and that triggered the price jump on the 29th.

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7^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-1 09:39 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 FeiJai 於 2006-11-30 11:13 PM 發表

Will have very strong support at US$55 and unlikely to break US$50 any time soon.

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ALeung

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8^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-1 20:03 只看該作者

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Oil production already peaked.........peaked........peaked......

so the demand will always greater than the productions....plus no big new oil fields found
show you a few charts copied from elsewhere:---

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ALeung

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9^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-1 20:04 只看該作者

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just missing ........

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ALeung

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10^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-1 20:07 只看該作者

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some more.....

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FeiJai

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11^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-1 23:05 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 ALeung 於 2006-12-1 12:03 PM 發表
Oil production already peaked.........peaked........peaked......
so the demand will always greater than the productions....plus no big new oil fields found
show you a few charts copied fr ...

Strategically, I agree that demand of oil will be on the way up. And so I think longing oil shares will get pretty good long term growths. At this point I have no doubt.

However, for the sake of speculating oil related share prices, the question n is, what is a "reasonable" price of oil now? Not too long ago it was near $70.00, but we know it wasn't because of fundamental demand/supply, it was due to poor weather forecasting plus market speculation. Now we are off this hook and back to fundamentals, how far will it go?

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ALeung

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12^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-2 22:27 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 FeiJai 於 2006-12-1 03:05 PM 發表

Strategically, I agree that demand of oil will be on the way up. And so I think longing oil shares will get pretty good long term growths. At this point I have no doubt.

However, for the sa ...

Only god knows the timing !!!
The trend is your friend....
see the chart just breaking the downward trend.....
going up to form upward trend ???....
....looks like and hope so with the weakness of US$

[ 本帖最後由 ALeung 於 2006-12-2 02:28 PM 編輯 ]

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13^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-3 00:05 只看該作者

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我估油價已有支持, 可以反彈去邊D位就好難估。等回一回先買入油股會安全好多, 今年盈利好, 派息應該好理想~!

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14^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-3 15:38 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 titov 於 2006-12-3 12:05 AM 發表
我估油價已有支持, 可以反彈去邊D位就好難估。等回一回先買入油股會安全好多, 今年盈利好, 派息應該好理想~!

Strongly agree

Especially with 857

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peninsula

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15^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-3 15:58 只看該作者

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原帖由 ALeung 於 2006-12-1 08:03 PM 發表
Oil production already peaked.........peaked........peaked......

And getting cold in North America!

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ALeung

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16^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-3 17:05 只看該作者

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2006-12-3 07:58 AM 發表

And getting cold in North America!

Yes....another big reason for consumption !!

Below chart looks better............

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FeiJai

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17^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-3 22:04 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 ALeung 於 2006-12-3 09:05 AM 發表

Yes....another big reason for consumption !!
Below chart looks better............

Agree that crude oil price is starting to make a reverse turn. Which oil stock will you opt for except 857? I personally will shoot for 0135.

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leoxi

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18^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-3 23:57 只看該作者

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原帖由 FeiJai 於 2006-12-3 10:04 PM 發表

Agree that crude oil price is starting to make a reverse turn. Which oil stock will you opt for except 857? I personally will shoot for 0135.

Perhaps the warrants of 857

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peninsula

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19^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-5 17:50 只看該作者

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原帖由 leoxi 於 2006-12-3 11:57 PM 發表
Perhaps the warrants of 857

Oil stocks will make a run soon. It's their turn!

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20^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-16 11:27 只看該作者

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Warm weather affects the prices of natural gas much more than that of crude oil. In the US, only in the North East heating oil is used for heating. The rest of US uses mainly natural gas. On the other hand, warmer weather usually means more driving, and the demand for gasoline would be higher. Gasoline inventory in the US is below the five-year range right now. Together with OPEC cutting quotas, I think the chance of oil pricel testing US$70 is much higher than falling back to US$60.

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21^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-17 15:05 只看該作者

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先支持一下你，尽在无言中

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22^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-17 15:22 只看該作者

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謝謝你的分享.thanks brother

行仁義其利自至

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FeiJai

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23^# 大中小發表於 2006-12-17 22:46 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 lone-traveller 於 2006-12-16 03:27 AM 發表
Warm weather affects the prices of natural gas much more than that of crude oil. In the US, only in the North East heating oil is used for heating. The rest of US uses mainly natural gas. On the other hand, warmer weather usually means more driving, and the demand for gasoline would be higher. Gasoline inventory in the US is below the five-year range right now. Together with OPEC cutting quotas, I think the chance of oil pricel testing US$70 is much higher than falling back to US$60.

I don't think oil price is going to test US$70.00 in any time soon just based on supply and demand. The US economy is not going as strong as expected, the dollar is getting wearker and wearker, hence the FED decided to NOT increase interest. If oild price continue rises to above $65 per barrel, it will further damage the US economy. So I think it's likely to be "controlled" to fluctuate in low$60 range, not exceeding $64. Beside, don't forget a large factor of previous high oil price was due to market speculation of oil futures. A key supporting reason for that speculation (low temperature and bad weather) has since gone burst.

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