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the bear market is coming soon??

coolbe

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1^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-30 07:32 只看該作者

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the bear market is coming soon??

i am being pessimistic about the market. i dont know why but i believe we are due for a major recession, especially the US. i am starting to have some doubts on the monetary policy because the stock market has become more and more voliate in the last couple of years. maybe this will put the end of the corporation paradigm since the 1990s

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peninsula

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2^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-30 09:11 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 coolbe 於 2007-3-30 07:32 發表
i am being pessimistic about the market. .

Yes, it seems some major fund managers agree with your view but strange things have happend before ...

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3p3p

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3^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-30 09:44 只看該作者

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One more point I heard, just done the 1st Q for many funds so they decorated a good portfolio yesterday and will start to dump from April...

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b4321

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4^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-30 10:43 只看該作者

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Do u consider 1000 or 2000 pt drop be a bear market?

引用:

原帖由 coolbe 於 2007-3-30 07:32 發表
i am being pessimistic about the market. i dont know why but i believe we are due for a major recession, especially the US. i am starting to have some doubts on the monetary policy because the st ...

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peninsula

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5^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-30 10:53 只看該作者

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原帖由 b4321 於 2007-3-30 10:43 發表
Do u consider 1000 or 2000 pt drop be a bear market?

For HSI, I consider below 18,000 (10% adjustment) to be start of bear market.

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Mycheesecake

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6^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-30 11:49 只看該作者

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What monetary policy that disturbing you? or we are just influenced by views sharing in wall street, publications, TV, radio, internet......

引用:

原帖由 coolbe 於 2007-3-30 07:32 AM 發表
i am being pessimistic about the market. i dont know why but i believe we are due for a major recession, especially the US. i am starting to have some doubts on the monetary policy because the st ...

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coolbe

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7^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-31 12:09 只看該作者

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the interests rates that the federal reverse uses. i went to talk to my professor after classs in one day and he shares the same point of view as i do. the japanese economy is a good example where the whole monetary policy has failed. the japanese economy has been in a big funk for more than 30 years even with 0% interests rate

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mysyu

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8^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-31 13:45 只看該作者

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我在指數升逾18000 点時, 也步步為營, 幸好沒有出貨太多, 但也不敢掃太多貨. 週前有兩買大跌, 我反而入貨. 我相信港股依靠大陸政經情況, 暫時不應大趺. 或者我每天在電台石Sir 的分析, 得到以下的靈感:

1. 石生多次提及中国內地民間藏富勁多, 大陸政府一定會有效地疏導這些地下貨幣, 才可以把人民幣國際化. 我認為大陸最近加息, 国內股市不跌反升, 或許是民間藏富, 升機投入市場.

2. 關於美國次按問題, 石生說這等如香港的大耳窿, 如老鼠尾之瘡, 大極有限. 況且美國政府亦會就問題之嚴重性, 減息以救樓市, 此則會有利股市.

我不認識石生, 但我認為他是最全面分柝政經形勢, 而不是人云亦云, 或單看圓表走勢及歷史, 而死牛一边一頸, 預測股市走勢.

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9^# 大中小發表於 2007-3-31 14:38 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 coolbe 於 2007-3-30 07:32 發表
i am being pessimistic about the market. i dont know why but i believe we are due for a major recession, especially the US. i am starting to have some doubts on the monetary policy because the st ...

The 1st thing the Fed's focus on is to control inflation, not how the stock market performs. That is why the US wouldn’t let monetary policy fails, even at the cost of the economy. If so then what they believed in and what they accomplished the last 20-30 years would be down the drain. Once the Fed can control inflation, then they will look into ways to help the economy.

In fact the Fed's decision making is not for the stock market. The market interprets the Fed's reaction.

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coolbe

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10^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-2 09:00 只看該作者

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i am by no mean of saying that the Fed's decision is for the stock market. i am just having doubts about the policy's capacable nowaday. inflation is going to be harder to control nowaday especially after the housing boom in the last couple of years, unless the fed reset the controlled inflation rate slight above the equilibrium rate, we are due for a serious recession soon.

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jimmy1001

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11^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-2 12:52 只看該作者

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今時今日，港股受大陸影響多于受美國影響。
當A股泡沫爆，港股才是災難。
A股幾時爆破？

人生苦短，敢愛敢恨！

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peninsula

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12^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-2 13:09 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 jimmy1001 於 2007-4-2 12:52 發表
今時今日，港股受大陸影響多于受美國影響。
當A股泡沫爆，港股才是災難。
A股幾時爆破？

If we know, we would be "rich"!

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edwihik

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13^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-2 13:28 只看該作者

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yeah..coming soon

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peninsula

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14^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-2 17:05 只看該作者

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原帖由 edwihik 於 2007-4-2 13:28 發表
yeah..coming soon

Any reasons??

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小小力

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15^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-2 23:17 只看該作者

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How "soon" will the bear market be coming?

計謀之始是要讓敵人知道你的下一步,然後小心預測敵人之後的每一步,高明一點的是讓敵人知道你的第二步,更高明的是讓敵人知道你的第三步 ...

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mmr.ren

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16^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-3 10:45 只看該作者

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我係度諗, 早輪跌完之後, 升極都過唔返二萬, 又跌極都跌唔落, 似乎唔係咁好既現象

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jimmy1001

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17^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-3 11:21 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-4-3 02:45 發表
我係度諗, 早輪跌完之後, 升極都過唔返二萬, 又跌極都跌唔落, 似乎唔係咁好既現象

你覺得系大跌先兆，定系整固中？

人生苦短，敢愛敢恨！

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mmr.ren

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18^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-3 11:50 只看該作者

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我怕唔係咁好現象, 早輪升浪似係人地講既 bootstrapping, 業績一路出, 似乎無乜大驚喜

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jimmy1001

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19^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-3 13:09 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-4-3 03:50 發表
我怕唔係咁好現象, 早輪升浪似係人地講既 bootstrapping, 業績一路出, 似乎無乜大驚喜

我巳冇物貨在手了，日日看見個市上上落落，有時都會心動，想入市。

人生苦短，敢愛敢恨！

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peninsula

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20^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-3 13:13 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 jimmy1001 於 2007-4-3 13:09 發表
我巳冇物貨在手了，日日看見個市上上落落，有時都會心動，想入市。

Waiting for you to enter before adjustment?

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mysyu

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21^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-3 22:57 只看該作者

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I have bought a lot in the past few weeks after the day of 777. The market is going fine but it may adjust again when those who were pessimistic but now come back. I hope I can know when those guys enter again into the market so I can take profit of my stocks.

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jimmy1001

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22^# 大中小發表於 2007-4-4 12:18 只看該作者

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引用:

原帖由 mysyu 於 2007-4-3 14:57 發表
I have bought a lot in the past few weeks after the day of 777. The market is going fine but it may adjust again when those who were pessimistic but now come back. I hope I can know when those gu ...