引用:

原帖由 watsze 於 2008-1-22 10:35 發表
環球經濟下跌，買咩都好似危危乎?????點算

I think don't try to buy in this moment!

Golden chance to buy Australian/New Zealand dollar
then put them into 1 week fixed deposit waiting for rising
may rise 3-5 % in 2 months

if more proactive
trade forex margin
long AUD/NZD short Yen
but be dicipline and keep good stop-loss

引用:

原帖由 watsze 於 2008-1-22 10:35 發表
環球經濟下跌，買咩都好似危危乎?????點算

HOLD cash!

I myself would long Yen, short Pound...
I believe there are still lots of mileage to come from YEN... and maybe to a lesser extent CHF
Carry trade would probably continue to unwind, especially if Euro have rate cut... i dunno if AUD will still have rate hike though

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-1-23 19:50 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 penisonic 於 2008-1-23 19:47 發表
買人仔最穩陣

Yeah, a very safe bet indeed...
Picking a currency is like picking a winner in a beauty contest...

引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-1-23 19:45 發表
I myself would long Yen, short Pound...
I believe there are still lots of mileage to come from YEN... and maybe to a lesser extent CHF
Carry trade would probably continue to unwind, especially if ...

recent global finacial disturbance has result in large scale carry trade unwinding, investors also keep in buying Yen perceiving that it would go up.

this has cause Yen to stand in an extremely high position which is not match with its basic fundamental factors

sooner or later the market would correct this inclination and Yen would likely fall back to its reasonable rate, say around 110 US (now 106.5, time you said short Yen 105.8)

I gotta clarify my position, my view is not for trading short term price movement like a few days or a few weeks, it is very normal the rate go up and and down in short time period without any significant trend and meaning at all, like the spread of between 106.5 and 105.8...
I buy Yen/CHF and *keep* it, waiting for a relatively much bigger upside movement.. actually since the last time i suggest buy and hold YEN, it has gone up at least 5% or 6% already (actually i hold YEN even earlier) because YEN is highly undervalued... and USD is still highly overvalued, the current account deficit in the US is not sustainable unless it devalues USD significantly, this is what i believe to be the fundmental factors that is not yet fully reflected in the current exchange rate of USDJPY...

thats why i believe the market would indeed correct this trend, but the direction is the opposite, YEN would go up further...
especially when i expect a bigger global financial shockwave is yet to come.... of course, nothing is certain, and i could be absolutely wrong about the *timing* when this will happen, but i am very confident that we will see the day Yen could go up 20%, 30% and higher against USD within 2 years...  Carry trade has been doing for decades, and this one-way bet can't last forever, nor should there any reason why it be some permanent trend *especially if the natural law of mean reversion is allowed to manifest itself*...

i think our difference in long and short YEN boil down to our different strategy/approach only...

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原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-1-24 12:01 發表
I gotta clarify my position, my view is not for trading short term price movement like a few days or a few weeks, it is very normal the rate go up and and down in short time period without any sign ...

thank you and I see your point
I think both of us have our stand point
and both us could win with good trading stragety to take advantage of the fluctuation
good luck to both of us

buy Renminbi ~~

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原帖由 V.V 於 2008-1-24 14:34 發表
buy Renminbi ~~

Sure WIN!

let's do some arithmatic

last year RMB rose 5%
plus interest about 1% (depositing in HK, if in Mainland interest more)
less buy/sell different about 1%

so net gain 5%

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-22 12:49 發表
Golden chance to buy Australian/New Zealand dollar
then put them into 1 week fixed deposit waiting for rising
may rise 3-5 % in 2 months

if more proactive
trade forex margin
long AUD/NZD sho ...

within 2 days

AUD/US 85.5 to 87.7
NZD/US 75.5 to 77.2

NZD/Yen 79.5 to 82.2

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-24 14:22 發表


thank you and I see your point
I think both of us have our stand point
and both us could win with good trading stragety to take advantage of the fluctuation
good luck to both of us

A bit more background information...

Nowadays, annual US current account deficit has been persistently in the range of hundreds of billions for many years, current account deficits, like bubble, are inherently unsustainable... this deficit must be corrected... for example, in 1985, the G7 countries agreed to pull down the overvalued USD in order to help restore the balance of trade, as a result, the USD fell by 50% against the Yen and Mark (its major trading partners then).. the collapse of the USD is a matter of _when_, rather than _if_... The USD must fall, not only against Yen, Euro, but also RMB (and also currencies of all of its major trading partners).. These currencies must rise very sharply in order to restore the international balance of payments... How that devaluation of USD could take place ? it could be by 'accord' among the central bankers, or it could be by market panics and a run on USD, or maybe orderly devaluation (the current course)... Even a 40% plunge in value of USD against RMB might not be able to end the China's giant trade surplus, as i dont think most Chinese could afford american-made goods even at the new revised exchange rate...

Why is this deficit unsustainable? because - for every US current account deficits must be financed by debt instrument, T-bond, corporate equity/loan, GSE or direct foreign investment (financial account and capital account) ... and it is now increasingly hard to find foreign buyers to buy their debts (because of bad creditworthiness, overly indebtedness) to keep financing the war, the US consumer's spending binge endlessly.... especially now that the massive credit bubble just popped, no more housing ATM for the US consumers to buy stuff from China... this will spell big trouble for china maybe in later half of 2008 or early 2009 (and also for any export-led nations)... 70% of US GDP is consumer spending, thats why it *was* the world's economic growth engine.. This adjustment could signal the end of the era of export-led growth for china, japan etc... in future, it is likely that domestic consumption predominantly drive its own growth.... currently china is still geared for exporting to US, but it *has to* change quick away from this model, or expect big economic slump ahead ....

China's giant trade surplus with the US is a result of RMB pegging to USD at a very low rate, it used to be that China will use the surplus USD to buy back the T-bond in order to maintain the low exchange rate against USD (thats how it accumulate 1.4 trillions of its USD denominated reserve), this was necessary in order to avoid appreciating the RMB... but now, China would rather convert back the USD to RMB and let RMB appreciate than buying the ever devaluing USD, also partly because it has to curb the consumer price inflation... hence USD value declines....

For Yen/CHF, there is an added bonus of a carry trade, this position has to unwind sooner or later (Yen's carry trade is 10+ years, and many billions of money involved conservatively speaking), if it was orderly, Yen might not show sharp rise, but if there are bigger panic in the market, the rise could be very fast in a short time...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-1-25 13:48 編輯 ]

brother cat :

I like your anaylsis which gives me additional insight to the market.
I shall remember your points and have them brought up before I make my next buy

Can you also let me have your expert views on Canadian dollar ?

And should US continues to cut rate, the possibility thay one day it would take over Yen and CHF's role as a carry trade victim?
If this happens, one day we may see all non US will rise, be it Yen, CHF or the high-rate currencies ? (in fact this is the case 3-5 years ago)

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-25 17:09 發表
brother cat :

I like your anaylsis which gives me additional insight to the market.
I shall remember your points and have them brought up before I make my next buy

Can you also let me have  ...

brother ces,

no no, I am no expert, i just wanna share only I know very little about trading actually, especially short term one... Canadian dollar, i have no idea however..

Yeah, indeed USD will keep falling against most major currencies like i have always said, but then all currencies are falling all the time, it might appear that they are relatively stable against each other, but the truth is - it is only because of the illusion of them falling down together - some fall faster, some slower... in our case, it is that USD is falling relatively faster than others among all the currencies... it might seem stupid that many nations would want to devalue their own currency, this was all because of this game of competitive currency devaluation, to maintain trade and export competitiveness... when you anchor all major currencies against gold, silver, food, they are all falling... and thats why i said picking a fiat currency is like picking a winner in a beauty contest, you pick the least ugly, but still, she is ugly... so my favorite contest winners has always been Gold, silver, platinum so far as 'currency' is concerned... However the US fed, UK, Europe central bankers are in the panel judge, always rigging the score sheet to my disfavor, so my favorites never have a deserved win that proportionately reflect its fundamental beauty *yet*, but i still have hope... hehe

and if the fed aggressively cut its Fed Fund Rate by another 2% or more, it might indeed become the target for carry trade... in compeitition with Yen, CHF.. and i think the Fed will indeed do that in view of the crisis situation, and cut it down to near zero, as well as pulling down the long term rates... imo, the US will be in big trouble no matter how much it cut.. because the effectiveness of this drastic monetary policy of low or zero interest rate and massive money supply in post massive bubble deflationary environment has never been found to be effective.. the *best* outcome of such policy is ineffective result like japan's example, economy remain deeply in recession with liquidity trap.. the *worst* outcome is hyperinflation...

The effectiveness of the just announced economy stimulating plan will be as effective as a drop in an ocean, purely short term confidence boosting shot. IMO, the US economy doesnt need a shot in the arm, it need a shot in the head... the best it could achieve might be one quarter of dead cat rebounce in terms of economy statistics (always rigged though)....

My opinion is that the US economy will be dead, a global economic slump is unavoidable, especially those export led countries like China, and most emerging markets will be in trouble, left with excess production capacity and over investment, lots of non performing loans, reduced profit margin in a deflationary environment, i think the banking sector in china is very problematic indeed, many bad loans lurking around....

The current stock market can be played short term only... longer term much worse is yet to come in 2008 when the main street finally recognise the seriousness of the real situation... even now, many people are still unaware or complacent of the situation...

引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-1-23 19:45 發表
I myself would long Yen, short Pound...
I believe there are still lots of mileage to come from YEN... and maybe to a lesser extent CHF
Carry trade would probably continue to unwind, especially if ...

Long YEN? But JPY weaken a bit today.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-1-25 20:49 發表

Long YEN? But JPY weaken a bit today.

did you see my earlier post..?  the suggestion for Long Yen position was not meant for trading short term range.. ..

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-1-25 21:19 編輯 ]

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原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-1-25 21:17 發表
did you see my earlier post..?  the suggestion for Long Yen position was not meant for trading short term range..

OK - sorry.

but long jpy short gbp for a structural trade is a negative carry. u wld be paying to your rims on the interest rates. look at each weekend crossover holding your MTM wld make u cry.  

if you are net cash and wants to go into jpy its sensible. else the bet even if there is a 5% appreciation will just get eaten up by the funding spread charged by the broking houses

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-25 00:39 發表


within 2 days

AUD/US 85.5 to 87.7
NZD/US 75.5 to 77.2

NZD/Yen 79.5 to 82.2

AUD now 89
NZD now 78
should take profit before US rates announcement tomorrow

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-29 18:48 發表
AUD now 89
NZD now 78
should take profit before US rates announcement tomorrow

Don't worry. Will continue to be strong.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-1-29 20:54 發表

Don't worry. Will continue to be strong.

yes
but in short term
just after US announce the rates meeting result
profit-taking deals may come
which may cause a plunge