Gold and economy...
In the G7 meeting, it was decided to allow IMF to sell some of its $92B in gold reserves, but whether IMF will actually sell it has yet to be confirmed...
Superficially this seems to be bad news for Gold... But i think NOT.. this is a very good news.. it could mean that the G7's constituent central banks have more or less run out of bullet... thats why they are so desperate for IMF's help for taking down gold price.. actually the recent gold upward momentum is strong partly in view of universal destruction of currencies values.. rate cuts from Fed, BoE, and soon ECB will follow, and the ever increasing expansion of credit and money... Euro has collapsed by 90% against gold over the past 4 years... Euro is only relatively strong against other fiat currencies only... USD might have some strength lately because of collusion among BoJ, BoE, ECB, US Fed to prop up the USD... but the fundamental of USD is utterly broken... if there is pullback in Gold, consider this a good opportunity to accumulate, if you havent already so... Silver is also a buy too, still unbelievably cheap, could have more upside potential than Gold... and Oil could also be considered because of Peak oil and the likely war against Iran (US or Israel), even though most mainstream analysts worry oil price would take a plunge during the worldwide recession... but longer term, Oil is very bullish....
The up and coming meltdown in the US is spreading from residential housing, subprime loans to prime mortgage (over 10 trillion market)... derivative markets (this is a HUGE market), the credit market is in turmoil too, rising credit spread... auto loan and credit card loan, corporate loan... the MBS, CDO markets are basically dead... and some big bond insurers (monoliners) are in danger of downgrade or bankruptcy... if that happen, expect much more subprime and loan writedown to come from bankers...
Commerical real estate and corporate bonds will be in trouble soon... some regional US banks and corporations will bankrupt in 2008....
now the US problem is beginning to affect Europe and Japan, dragging down the economy.. China cannot escape from this, slow down this year is pretty sure, next year could have more serious trouble, but this is a good thing imo, because China has already over invested, having over-capacity which are highly deflationary, the sooner this correct, the less painful it is gonna be.... India should be the one that could better weather this storm _relatively_ better as its market is primarily geared for dosmetic consumption, and also better growth prospect, a better market for investment than China in future IMHO (at least short and medium term)...
2008 is a year of crisis and opportunity... cheers....
[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-2-11 23:15 編輯 ]
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If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a pine tree, worth $4,000-$5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?
