The collapse of the US financial and economic system is progressing, not receding nor improving, and becoming more apparent, its effects on the globalised finanical system shall become even more visible and prononuced in the coming few months, and which I think will be scary. We shall see more US banks going bankrupt or begging even more capital (not as easy to find a fool again though), they are essentially bankrupted including Citibank (which is being 'downsized', auctioning its pieces off) apart from so many other smaller/medium sized regional banks..  And the imminent big wave will be massive credit card default which could bring down the system indeed or spark a 'revolution' in the way the financial systems should work. Catastrophic events in financial/political systems can really happen anytime, including market crash, iran war provocation...etc.. What is developing is the kind of not-once-in-a-lifetime world events, we shall feel "blessed or damned" (depending on your position) to be able to witness or experience these events alive. Nothing that I mention here haven't been already mentioned before by myself or others, just that we shall remain alert, don't think for a moment that we have seen the worst situation already (most think this is subprime only, which is totally untrue... even the subprime problem has not been solved as the US real estate still has a long way to fall, and more will keep coming).. and most of all, take any official US data and statistics with a huge grain of salt, and get prepare... Good luck!

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原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-7-1 11:12 發表
The collapse of the US financial and economic system is progressing, not receding nor improving, and becoming more apparent, its effects on the globalised finanical system shall become even more vi ...

No big deal. We have seen major collapses before.

well, i think this is not the 'major collapse' that you have come to imagine - it is much bigger in terms of magnitude, scale and of different nature from what have come before. I am not meaning it must collapse in this literal sense, but its ramification will be very wide and significant, and this take time too. We have seen the tips of the iceberg only, we just need to wait and decide if you have seen this before.  
it is a collapse in the financial system of the US. The reason: insolvent banking system, real estate assets will only fall, US *hugely* indebted nationwide and indivdually, US dollar hugely inflated by reckless printing, the credibility of the US (and US dollar, T bill) near zero hence less and less nations willing to finance its spending binge and buying its T bond, south korea is selling T bond on open market now. Not just the banks, the US itself is insolvent really coupled with failing world reserve currency status, what we are witnessing is the popping of the unprecedented credit bubble, housing bubble, dollar bubble (this one is happening slowly). In a tightly knitted globalised financial and trade systems, this will surely affects every other nations - currencies, economies, trade, stock markets, national stability etc... I predict a far worse scenario than the so called "major collapse" that we have seen before... and this one will last much longer too...

This is the kind of events that we have not seen ever before, and ultimately how it will develop nobody knows, we need to be patient to let it play itself out and see...  give it one or two years, you will begin to see what i mean, hopefully...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-7-3 10:57 編輯 ]

With the recent heightened war news from both the US and Iran, I am not surprised an attack on Iran is imminent (by the US or Israel), and the time for attack should coincide closely with the great collapse of the US financial market.. I venture to say that the US stock markets next week might be in for a bigger fall and shock (i dont mean because of war here). Why the attack at this time? Because *the US "need" this war to make it appear that a war (apparently) provoked by Iran is the cause of the inevitable economic collapse that will immediately follow.. As a result, the masses of US citizens will be fooled and distracted from the real causes of the collapse...

Once that happened (market crashed and borrowing/liquidity stop flowing), the US will be suffering depression and high deflation as time progress.
This deflation scenario will happen regardless, with or without an Iran war, it is only a matter of when. If a war does happen, it will a smokescreen as i have mentioned above..

*The US here means those elites, central banksters, royals that wield enormous power behind the scenes, and are the primary beneficiary of the current political/financial system, they include Rockefeller, Warburgs, Rothchilds, CFR, etc.

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-7-10 22:40 編輯 ]

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The free falling of USD is still going on well, it seems... with Yen and Swiss Franc making new high against USD... When will USD launch a mini rally before diving again, I dunno, but the 'worthlessness' of USD on a fundamental basis is dangerous to be underestimated, so I won't bet against this... Longer term, the value of currency is basically a reflection of its economic fundamentals and health...

The Fed is now formulating a really *BIG* BAILOUT plan, nationalising the mortgage market, so much for capitalism, the market system for the US is running exactly like 'capitalism for profit, socialism for risks and losses'... With Citigroup dumping those worthless junk mortgages to GSEs like FannieMae, FreddieMac (which are government sponsored entities that just had the mortage credit limit raised just for this purpose, they are really a bunch of criminals) .. this is the first step for the big bailout with the US taxpayers ultimately footing the bill when those GSEs eventually  failed, and they will (of course, we will be sharing this bill indirectly too)....  

Right now, we are still in the crisis phase of the capitalistic cycle, what will likely follow is depression phrase (or deep recession).. What kind of a beast we will see during the depression phase is still uncertain though, but most likely it will be a mixture of pronounced inflation and deflation on different asset classes...

http://forum.timway.com/f/thread-173447-1-6.html
4+ months ago, i have predicted in the thread above about the eventual failure of GSEs like FreddieMac, FannieMae

In the US, people are only beginning to realise (or believe) that the US largest mortage corporations like 房地美(Freddie Mac), 房利美(Fannie Mae) are insolvent, their shares have been diving like there is no tomorrow... Although technically they have not failed yet, as Hank Paulson maintain that the Fed will now lend them money to let them stay running as is... but they will evenutally fail in a not too distant future, and they own at least 5+ trillions in mortgages. And then the Fed will take over them, and that means the nationalisation of the US mortgage market as i have mentioned few months ago, ... and there will be extremely horrifying consequences on the  T-Bond, T-Notes, USD, gold, oil, and stock markets... But these series of events are all planned and expected long ago by the Fed and his cronies... In an highly unlikely event that they were not bailed out by the Fed, should their debts exploded, it will be a nuclear bomb...



[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-7-12 18:48 編輯 ]