Short EURO 1.54
look 1.525 by friday night

歐元: 歐洲央行總裁會後聲明
歐洲央行(ECB)總裁特里謝稱，近期數據支撐了7月升息的決定。他並重申避免第二輪通膨效應仍很關鍵。最近數據顯示2008年中期實質經濟增長將明顯弱於第一季，歐元區經濟未遭遇重大失衡，當前貨幣政策立場將有助於實現物價穩定目標。特里謝稱歐元區經濟基本面穩健，未來經濟面臨的不確定性仍很高，食品和能源價格面臨進一步上漲風險，通膨將在2009年逐步放緩。

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-7 21:50 發表
Short EURO 1.54 look 1.525 by friday night長 ...

OK - will follow but one hand is expensive!

Its been 2 hours when the position sell EUR at 1.54 is opened
EUR now 1.532
EUR falls less quick as I expected
as oil rebounds and US stock falls reduces the strength of the dollar

may be 1.53 is the first area to consider profit taking

its lucky that when get out of bed
euro has fallen to 1.522
so squared and get the money

In short term to sell whenever rebound

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-8 10:54 發表
its lucky that when get out of bed
euro has fallen to 1.522

Good - closed @1.50!

Free fall time is coming

Euro 20 years trend

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-11 01:33 發表
Euro 20 years trend

Free fall? What about NZD & AUD?

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-11 22:32 發表

Free fall? What about NZD & AUD?

that's another brother's post
not mine

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-12 00:27 發表
that's another brother's post
not mine

Should short or long?

think NZD may long for short term (a few days) at 0.695
but AUD still has many bad news coming so better don't touch.
at this point shorting these 2 currencies may not be profitable taking into account of the interest loss

I rather think at 1.485 Euro may buy looking for 1.5
but long term Euro is uncertain

US dollar may not be as tough as generally expected

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-13 01:16 發表
think NZD may long for short term (a few days) at 0.695
but AUD still has many bad news coming so better don't touch.
at this point shorting these 2 currencies may not be profitable taking into acc ...

I was wrong
both NZD and AUD fall this morning

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-13 10:40 發表
I was wrong
both NZD and AUD fall this morning

GBP extremely weak.

great surprise
yesterday morning 8-10 am
carry trade unwinding pushed NZD to fall from 0.699 to 0.685
18 hous later NZD now 0.702
strong rebound

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-13 22:14 發表

GBP extremely weak.

poor employment data
increase chance of rates cutting
if furhter bad data
GBP may follow the path of AUD and NZD

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-14 01:34 發表
GBP may follow the path of AUD and NZD

Short term?

already fall 700 pip in a week
further trend depends on economic data

but dare not give any firm comments
all the way I can't understand GPB
as good as I understand other currencies

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-14 01:32 發表
great surprise
yesterday morning 8-10 am
carry trade unwinding pushed NZD to fall from 0.699 to 0.685
18 hous later NZD now 0.702
strong rebound

NZD now 0.706
may need to realize profit latest by this week end

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-17 15:50 發表
NZD now 0.706
may need to realize profit latest by this week end

Take profit la.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-18 23:01 發表

Take profit la.

eventually get the money at 0.7135

[ 本帖最後由 ces 於 2008-8-19 00:26 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-19 00:25 發表
eventually get the money at 0.7135

What is your next play?

May take a recess for the time being
dollar is losing strength
and other currencies are too weak to make big rebounds
market may go under a very narrow range

In September many countries will have their rate meetings :
CAD and AUD 3.9.08
Eur and GBP 4.9.08
NZ 11.9.08
US and CHF 18.9.08

So wait and see

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-20 09:54 發表
In September many countries will ha ...

AUD, NZD and GBP are all down significatly. Any startegy now?

Sorry
not yet
how about you

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原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-3 11:00 發表
how about you

Waiting to long AUD as you sugegsted. NZD is not as good a bet.