Bought large amount NZD/Yen at 70
plan to hold for months or up to 80
to me each time Yen rise
due to carry trade rewinding is good chance to sell

NZD 0.665 good price
but may further fall next week before rate meeting (next thursday)
so wait
but will take if price remains at 0.665
by wednesday

NZD -0.5 % great surprise
in short term will fall so don't touch

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-11 18:32 發表
NZD -0.5 % great surprise
in short term will fall so don't touch

AUD very weak too @0.79

We can see that although the share markets are crashing in these days, but YEN is very strong and reached around 106 yesterday. That should be the squaring of the carry-trade.

I have some NZD-YEN long contracts, but no worry much as I am earning good interest and no any pressure to square the position. I should buy more if the pair drops more in value, and wait for the cycle to go up again.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-11 20:25 發表

AUD very weak too @0.79

Yes
NZD/Yen +6% interest
around 70  is good price to hold
I've got lots of it and I plan to hold them for very long term

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-12 15:34 發表
Yes
NZD/Yen +6% interest
around 70  is good price to hold
I've got lots of it and I plan to hold them for very long term

Good ar. How about AUD/JPY?

YEN is hard to predict as it reflects the speculating factor but not purely Japan's own economic factor.

I think AUD should be stronger than NZD as China has real demand for many of Australian's raw materials and also AUD. NZ has not many mining business as Australia.

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-12 22:01 發表
YEN is hard to predict as it reflects the speculating factor but not purely Japan's own economic factor.
I think AUD should be stronger than NZD as China has real demand for many of Australian's ra ...

So can long AUD/NZD pair.

To long AUD/NZD, u need to pay interest......

Forex is a difficult game.

Long AUD/NZD in very short term may be OK
since NZD had just released a very bad news

but similar bad news from AUD may be coming
So in mid to long term I think the rate would go back to under 1.2 (now 1.23)

The 5 years chart shows 1.17 may be the middle rate

P.S. :
AUD mining
NZD agricultural

commodity market is falling so both currencies may be affected
in good economic situation minerals may have large demand
but agricultural goods are basic needs that  have market even when economic situation is bad

the value of both currency lies on their high interest rates
Even if they each cut 3 % they still much higher than other currencies.

the current sharp correction may be golden chance to hold them against US dollar

[ 本帖最後由 ces 於 2008-9-14 12:21 編輯 ]

Not interest in AUD/NZD as:
1) Need to pay interest if need to sit in boat
2) Variation between 2 currencies should not be big enough

There should be other currency pairs or single currency to speculate for better opportunity cost.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-13 13:24 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-13 13:23 發表
Not interest in AUD/NZD as: ...

JPY heading to 100. Wow.

Resulting of the squaring of the carry-trade.

But I'll start to short YEN when it reaches 100 or higher.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-16 21:21 發表

JPY heading to 100. Wow.

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-16 22:02 發表
Resulting of the squaring of the carry-trade.
But I'll start to short YEN when it reaches 100 or higher.

Highest at 103.5 today. AUD is scary the way it is falling but Aussie resoures stocks are reatively OK.

I have sold out all Australian and HK stocks including Manulife which are making profit and increase my cash position.

Feeling scary if the AIG collapses, which is highly likely. The AIG share prices was USD60 in Jan-2008, and the price was USD4.7X last Friday, but now is only USD3.88. It is not much difference fm bankruptcy but just a matter of time. The collapse of AIG should have much influence on the confidence on the equity market. I maybe able to buy back the sold shares at a much lower price later.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-16 22:26 發表

Highest at 103.5 today. AUD is scary the way it is falling but Aussie resoures stocks are reatively OK.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-17 09:40 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-16 23:16 發表
Feeling scary if the AIG collapses, which is highly likely. The AIG share pric ...

If AIG falls, the financial world will collapse.

Yes
Don't think Bush would let AIG fall

In the absence of further bad news
US stocks may rebound

For HK the rebound may be even faster
Mainland Govt is regret for having introduced so many harsh measures for the past year
It seems its has start doing something encouraging

The plunging of Mainland Bank stocks today are good chance to buy since the AIG assets (main reason for plunging) they hold are  not significant

1398 $4
3988 $2.9
no one buy

Last year same time $7.x and $5.x
All rush to buy

This is the market

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-18 18:28 發表
many ha ...

Killed all the 淡友 today.

May be I lucky I bought NZ @4.22 long time ago and keep it up to now

引用:

原帖由 jackleunggg 於 2008-9-18 22:03 發表
May be I lucky I bought NZ @4.22 long time ago and keep it up to now

A little bit la.

[quote]原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-6 13:46 發表
Bought large amount NZD/Yen at 70
plan to hold for months or up to 80


Situation review  3.10.2008  2.36 am
NZD/Yen now 69.5
range since 6.9.2006  67.5 - 74.0

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-3 02:39 發表
[quote]原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-6 13:46 發表 ...

So optimistic?

Never mind
Eating interest to wait

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-4 13:46 發表
Never mind
Eating interest to wait

Some days only 3% but another day 8%!