Wednesday, February 7, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Cool heads needed over Fairview standoff



  
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   The standoff between residents of Fairview Park, container truck drivers and nearby villagers is about three matters close to the hearts of all Hong Kong people: lifestyle, safety and livelihoods. Attaining all three is possible, but it will require cooler heads and greater understanding than has been on display.
That Fairview Park residents are upset is understandable in light of the death of schoolboy Kam Ho-wah, killed by a container truck while cycling with his brother last week. The tragedy could have been avoided if authorities had listened to complaints about heavy vehicles using Fairview Boulevard, a private road running through the community.


While safeguarding lives has become the foremost issue - and the one that has raised emotions - the community has long been concerned about preserving its character. Fairview Park is not a typical Hong Kong residential area, after all. Conceived in the 1970s and 15 years in the making, it was the first and remains the largest low-rise development in the city. The developers' aim was to build a  peaceful alternative to the concrete jungle of high-rise living elsewhere - and the 25,000 residents cherish that difference.

Hong Kong has changed markedly since then, especially in the Yuen Long area in the New Territories, where Fairview Park is located. Where once there was greenery and tranquility, there are now truck-filled roads, container parks and pollution-choked skies. Those living in the development have semi-detached homes with private gardens. They jealously guard their lifestyle, seeing themselves as being in an oasis amid what has in many places become an environmental eyesore. That has been increasingly impossible with the virtually uncontrolled encroachment of container parks and the truck traffic associated with them.

In such circumstances, residents have not viewed truck drivers sympathetically. Nor have they taken kindly to their private road being used as a short-cut to nearby container parks. Their complaints to authorities achieved results in 2005 with the completion of a new road, providing an alternative route, carved from drainage land beside Fairview Park. But this road, which adds up to 10 minutes' travel time to truck drivers' journeys, remained closed until recently because of a legal dispute between residents and the government. It was opened only after the death of Ho-wah.

Truck drivers have busy schedules. They need to get from one job to another quickly. Opting for the shorter route makes better sense; for them, the adage "time is money" is truly applicable. Villagers are angry at Fairview Park residents because their incomes are tied to the container parks in the area. Being generally less wealthy than those in the residential development, their allegiances are obvious. A disruption to the lives of the drivers who frequent their shops and stalls is to them also disturbing harmony.

When Fairview residents put up barricades and blocked truck traffic on Monday, a confrontation was inevitable. Only because police intervened were the sides kept apart.

Resolving the matter in the short-term would now seem to rest with a meeting today between residents and senior government officials. Common sense would say that the outcome is obvious: truck drivers should be required to use the new road.

This they started conscientiously doing for the first time yesterday, under advice from police. If they had done this from 2005, when the road was completed, and followed signs telling them not to use Fairview Boulevard, Ho-wah would still be alive. Tempers would not have flared to the point of near-clashes. The harmony of the district would have been preserved.

The court's ruling later this year should settle the matter. At that time, the legal position for all sides will be made clear and the judgment must be respected. In the meantime, level-headedness must prevail. Only by keeping tempers in check can a resolution properly and fairly be reached.


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Thursday, February 8, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Quality, not quantity, the right tourism strategy



   
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   When the performance of a key economic sector fails to meet forecasts, people are understandably concerned. For years, the number of visitors to Hong Kong invariably exceeded the forecasts put out by the Tourism Board, except for the awful Sars year of 2003. So alarm bells inevitably rang when last year's number, 25.25 million visitors, was released last month - it was about 6.5 per cent less than projected.
The disappointing results no doubt prompted the board to project a far less optimistic 26.4 million visitors for this year - a mere 4.5 per cent increase from last year's actual figure - at an industry and media briefing yesterday.


The tourism industry is facing many daunting challenges, but focusing solely on visitor numbers, with the unstated assumption that more is better, may be misguided. The government under former chief executive Tung Chee-hwa seems to have oversold the potential of a huge supply of mainland visitors through the solo travel scheme and the lucrative proceeds they would generate with Disneyland as a key attraction. Mainlanders make up more than half the visitors to the city each year, but their numbers are levelling off.

Just how many tourists can Hong Kong accommodate without ruining all the fun for them - and us? In comparison, Thailand as a premier tourist destination in Southeast Asia has just half the number of visitors. The problem of crowding has plagued key attractions: it is not unusual to queue 45 minutes for a ride at Disneyland; longer at the cheaper Ocean Park and on weekends and holidays at the Ngong Ping 360.

Yet with a crisis comes the proverbial opportunity. In dollar terms, the board's forecasts for visitor spending in 2005 (HK$97.8 billion) and 2006 (HK$114.7 billion) were actually exceeded by HK$7.8 billion and HK$2.6 billion respectively.

The board's promotion strategy has been switching from quantity to quality. Instead of emphasising tourist numbers, it is focusing on high-yield, or convention, visitors and their families - people who spend about HK$10,000 or more per visit, as opposed to the average HK$4,600-plus.

On this front, there is cause for optimism. In its first 12 months, AsiaWorld-Expo played host to about 40 events. Of these, five, including the ITU Telecom World, fully occupied the 760,000 sq ft site. The Convention and Exhibition Centre hosted 158 events last year and has already booked 78 this year. It is expanding to create more space.

Our city also scored a major coup when organiser Reed Exhibitions said it would move its influential Asian Aerospace trade fair from Singapore to AsiaWorld-Expo in September. Hong Kong is competing for convention business with Singapore, Macau, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. But as a major financial centre, we have our inherent advantages. Whether this strategy will succeed remains unclear, but it is a step in the right direction.





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Friday, February 9, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Broad approach needed to tackle drug problem



   
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   Regardless of the views of Hong Kong's party-going youths, drugs are considered harmful by society. That is why laws are in place banning their use and imposing penalties for those found with them in their possession.
There can be no sadder proof of the ill-effects of drug abuse than the case of 13-year-old Cheuk Wai-yin, who collapsed and died on a Mong Kok footpath on July 26 last year after partying at a nearby nightclub. The coroner, concluding yesterday that she had taken 10 times the lethal dose of Ecstasy and a considerable amount of ketamine, entered a verdict of death by misadventure.


That a life was taken so young through ignorance of drugs is regrettable. Her death will serve as a lesson for those who knew her or hear of the story. But as is the case with all substances of abuse, it will not alone deter those seeking to use them.

Getting the message across needs a concerted effort by the whole community, starting with the family, continuing through school and other groups in society and concluding at the penalty stage in the courts. There, the message can be delivered loudest to those who choose to ignore what they have been taught: that involvement with drugs that are illegal will lead to punishment.

If the comments by the coroner and, in a separate case, the Court of Appeal are any guide, it would seem that not enough is being done to discourage young people from taking drugs. The coroner suggested there was a need for greater efforts to educate young people about drugs. He said police should increase patrols of night spots frequented by youths to stem what he perceived to be a rising problem.

His comments were backed by outreach groups, which claimed there was a reluctance by some schools and parents to discuss drug use with children for fear of kindling an interest in their use. The same arguments have been made about sex education in school - with the result that in societies where such lessons are not taught, there are more teenage pregnancies and the incidence of sexually transmitted diseases is greater.

The Court of Appeal case highlighted another problem familiar to other jurisdictions in developed parts of the world: the high use of ketamine and Ecstasy by teenagers. Hong Kong's circumstances differ, however, in the vast quantities of ketamine that are being produced on the mainland and smuggled here.

With the two drugs being treated the same in the eyes of the law, the court considered the time had come in Hong Kong for a review. There is certainly a need for such a process when judges see increasingly serious cases before them.

Reservations about drug education clearly need to be put aside. Similarly, the penalties for ketamine and Ecstasy should be reconsidered and efforts to police their use toughened. With so many young lives depending on such steps, moving quickly is essential.



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thanks so much for posting ah!

Thanks for sharing.

Monday, February 12, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Inquiry needed into academic freedom row



  
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   The allegations of government interference in academic freedom, to be discussed by legislators today, raise very serious issues. The accusations strike at the heart of free speech, one of Hong Kong's biggest assets. It is therefore essential that these accusations, made by academics at the Hong Kong Institute of Education, are thoroughly - and independently - investigated. The truth must be made known.
The allegations paint a disturbing picture. They have been levelled against several officials, including education minister Arthur Li Kwok-cheung. They include the suggestion that the institute's president, Paul Morris, is being removed from his post because he is unwilling to support Professor Li's desire to merge the teacher-training college with Chinese University. The institute's governing council, dominated by government appointees, voted not to renew the president's contract last month, despite support for him from staff and students.


But officials are also being accused of seeking to stop academics publicly disagreeing with the government's education policies. The most serious allegation is made by the institute's vice-president for academic affairs, Bernard Luk Hung-kay. He says a senior official demanded that four academics be sacked for criticising the government's reforms.

None of the accusations has been substantiated and they are strenuously denied by the government. But wherever the truth lies, this is not a matter that can be left unresolved. The perception that the government might have been involved in such interference is a damaging one. It will hit confidence not only in the administration of Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, but also in Hong Kong's reputation as a place where people are free to express their opinions openly. It is especially important that academics feel they can publicly air their views on the government's education policies without fear of reprisal. Only through open debate can the right way forward be found for our city's education system.

The timing of the controversy has attracted much comment. It coincides with the election campaign for chief executive. Democrat legislators have, not surprisingly, been quick to seize on the row, which has the potential to damage Mr Tsang as he bids for a second term.

Officials have suggested the timing of the allegations is deliberate and linked to the election. The fact that Professor Luk is a founding member of the Civic Party, which is fielding a candidate against Mr Tsang in next month's poll, raises a question mark as to whether the academic's accusations may be politically motivated. This, he has denied. But the government should be taking the allegations of interference seriously. Mr Tsang reportedly suggested there was an election-related conspiracy behind them. Such remarks, if he made them, are unwise.

Mr Tsang should have swiftly and publicly defended Hong Kong's freedom of expression and declared a determination to pursue these allegations in order to get at the truth. But the chief executive refused to comment publicly until yesterday. It is good to see he took the opportunity to pledge that he would strive to ensure the truth was revealed. Now, those words must be backed up by action.

There is a need for a truly independent investigation. The government should take steps to establish an inquiry. But when doing so it must make sure that the composition of any panel and its procedures are such that the public can have absolute confidence in the impartiality of its findings. These allegations are far too serious to be swept under the carpet. It would be pointless to establish an investigation if the results are generally regarded as a whitewash.

If the government is unable or unwilling to establish such an inquiry, then a Legislative Council probe will be needed. This will, by its nature, be partisan. That is not ideal, but at least the procedures are well-established and the process transparent. 'Freedom of speech is one of our city's core values. Only a credible investigation will ensure it is protected.


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Tuesday, February 13, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
China's migrant workers deserve a fairer deal



   
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   Workers drawn from mainland China's poorer provinces to the factories and construction sites of its booming southeast have been crucial to the nation's spectacular economic rise. Yet, rather than being rewarded handsomely for their efforts, they have suffered from low wages and have not being given their due by employers or the government.
Beijing has long recognised the plight of the tens of millions of people involved. But its efforts to correct the injustices have had limited effect. Working conditions for the majority are still harsh, safety standards remain poor and the legal system is still failing to hear their grievances fairly.


Our two-part series on the plight of migrant workers, which concludes today on page A6, reveals just how shocking are the circumstances of those whose low-cost labour has helped generate the huge trade surpluses that swell the government's foreign reserves. If not for the poor pay and conditions they have been willing to endure, China would be much poorer.

Nations that benefit from the workers' circumstances have shown little concern. While they are getting low-cost goods of a high quality, the fact that China, the workshop of the world, is also - for many - a sweatshop has been of little concern.

Some nations, the US among them, have been worried about correcting a trade imbalance. But Washington's insistence that the yuan must be further revalued will not help mainland factory workers; rather, the pressure for factory owners to produce goods priced even more competitively to make up for the correction could worsen their circumstances.

In the meantime, there is no let-up in the pressure workers face. Exports last month were up by a third on those in January last year.

As migrant workers head home for the Lunar New Year holiday, many will be reconsidering their position. Wages have barely moved over the past year, despite the economy growing by almost 10 per cent.

Many have not received back-wages, often because subcontractors have absconded. This is despite government efforts to tackle the problem of wage arrears. Protests against working conditions or ill-treatment have been broken up by the authorities.

The profits made by mainland and foreign firms and the benefits to the government from its migrant workforce have been enormous. China has powered forward on their sweat.

The time has come for a change. Migrant workers need a better deal, and this can only be achieved by the central government making good on its pledges to improve their lot. More effective measures are needed. That means ensuring wages are fairer, conditions better, contracts fulfilled and legal rights enforced.


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Wednesday, February 14, 2007

OBSERVER
Living out Deng's dream


CHRIS YEUNG
   
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   Monday will be the 10th anniversary of the death of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping , who envisioned the policy of "one country, two systems" - the reality in Hong Kong since July 1, 1997.
Ten years on, the changes in Hong Kong and on the mainland could not be more startling. The mainland's rising economic might has posed challenges and brought opportunities for Hong Kong. Greater economic and social integration is set to bring about profound changes for "one country, two systems".


If Deng were still alive, he would be relieved that his experimental blend of pragmatism and innovative thinking on the Hong Kong question has borne fruit. Against the background of 1997's jitters, post-handover developments show that "one country, two systems" has worked.

A survivor of the protracted political and ideological infighting of the 1960s and 1970s, Deng was a firm believer in pragmatism and a results-oriented approach to solving problems.

So he saw that the best way to preserve the city's capitalist system was to let Hongkongers run their own affairs within a managed, gradual move towards full democracy. The fact that the Basic Law stipulates universal suffrage as the ultimate goal shows Deng's faith in Hongkongers' ability to run the city.

Hong Kong's success could, in turn, be emulated by more Chinese cities, to help speed up the country's modernisation.

Within 50 years, the mainland's development will reach a stage similar to Hong Kong's, making the separation between the two systems insignificant.

Deng's faith and far-sightedness stemmed from his conviction that the trend towards reform and openness was irreversible. When people see for themselves the practical benefits of reform, they become stakeholders and champions of reform.

Battered by economic shocks and political wrangling since the handover, Hong Kong is at a juncture of major change. Economically, the breathtaking economic growth on the mainland has sent a warning signal to the city to work harder to maintain its premier status.

Politically, there is a growing consensus that the city's current system is fundamentally flawed, and too seriously crippled to cope with society's increasing conflicts. Further delay in remedying the systemic deficiencies will not only undermine good governance. Worse, it will perpetuate political rows, worsen the overall environment and dampen a sense of purpose in Hong Kong society.

Any political leader with a sense of pragmatism and far-sightedness would unerringly understand that the achievement of universal suffrage is critically important to help solve the current governance problems. It would help build enduring relations between government and people.

Faced with the electoral challenge from Alan Leong Kah-kit, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen feels the pressure to address the issue of universal suffrage in his campaign - regardless of his personal belief in democratic values.

The consultation exercise on universal suffrage, scheduled for the summer, will emerge as a test of the collective wisdom, shared sense of purpose and far-sightedness of Hongkongers and Beijing authorities.

After more than two decades of divisive debate over universal suffrage most, if not all, concerns about giving everyone a vote have proved ill-founded. Even some diehard opponents of universal suffrage have changed their minds and embraced democracy. The argument that Hongkongers are not ready for universal suffrage has become increasingly weak, if there is even a case at all.

Let's assume that Mr Tsang was telling the truth when he said the central authorities would love to see universal suffrage introduced as early as possible. There are good reasons for optimism that pragmatically minded, intelligent Hongkongers will be able to reach a broad consensus on an electoral model.

If Deng had lived to see the 10th anniversary of the handover, he might have been disappointed to see that universal suffrage had still not been adopted.

Chris Yeung is the Post's editor-at-large.

chris.yeung@scmp.com



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Thursday, February 15, 2007

OBSERVER
More than just a trade deal


TROY STANGARONE
   
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   As the US Congress continues to debate Iraq and the future ofAmerican foreign policy, negotiations are taking place near the Capitol that may provide a glimpse of that policy's future.
The US and South Korea this week are undertaking the seventh, and likely final, round of free-trade agreement negotiations.


These talks are significant for the Washington-Seoul relationship, and the US role in Asia.

Northeast Asia is the world's most dynamic region. As China "rises" and a global economy emerges, the locus of economic and political power is being dispersed at an ever increasing pace.

The US response to these changes will shape the 21st century and America's place in it.

Over the past few years, the US-South Korea alliance has begun to evolve to better reflect both current realities in foreign affairs and South Korea's status as a developed nation.

The US is in the process of returning wartime military control of South Korean forces to Seoul and moving American forces out of the South Korean capital and into the countryside.

The US has nearly 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea, and military co-operation extends beyond the Korean Peninsula. South Korea has the largest contingent of troops in Iraq after Britain.

The free-trade talks are part of this larger process. South Korea, located between two economic giants, is the world's 11th-largest economy. It is America's seventh-largest trading partner: two-way trade tops US$72 billion.

For South Korea, a free-trade agreement with the US offers greater access to the world's largest consumer market, and guarantees continued economic relations with its most important military ally.

For the US, a trade deal offers increased market access in what would be the largest market opening for American goods since the North American Free-Trade Agreement. It strengthens the ability to set new standards for similar deals in Asia and between developed economies.

Moreover, a Washington-Seoul trade pact would give the US an economic beachhead in a region where free-trade agreements are rapidly proliferating and setting higher standards for market access - which will benefit US businesses.

For both sides, this agreement will help to move the alliance beyond its historical roots in the conflict with North Korea: it will begin to develop a more permanent and sustainable dimension to the alliance.

As economic power becomes more significant and China plays a larger role in the region, it will become important to ensure that the US does not become too Japan-focused.

As the two sides work to reach an agreement this week, significant issues must still be addressed. Among Washington's leading concerns are the removal of non-tariff barriers that have hindered the access of US goods such as cars; improved access for innovative American drugs; and more access for US agricultural products in the South Korean market.

South Korea is likely to present a new proposal to address its needs in the area of trade remedies, and look for increased access for its textile producers in the US market. These issues do not include the most politically sensitive concerns: the return of American beef to the South Korean market - once the third-largest export market for United States beef; and Seoul's request that products from a South Korean-run industrial complex in North Korea be considered South Korean, rather than North Korean, goods.

In one sense, the US-Seoul free-trade agreement is a commercial deal, negotiated on commercial terms.

In another, it is a pact that will be woven into the fabric of a changing bilateral alliance.

Both sides must now decide what type of alliance they want that to be: one that is ad hoc and primarily rooted in short-term benefits, or one grounded in shared, long-term interests.

Troy Stangarone is the director of Congressional Affairs and Trade for the Korea Economic Institute of America. These views are his own. Distributed by Pacific Forum CSIS




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Friday, February 16, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Revamped alert system will boost typhoon readiness



   
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   Climate change has made forecasting weather conditions increasingly difficult, so it is good that the Hong Kong Observatory has revamped the system of determining how threatening typhoons are. No approach is fool proof, however, given the circumstances, and meteorologists will have to ensure they get the right balance in their calculations to ensure the highest safety standards.
That balance was missing last August when Typhoon Prapiroon roared past, causing havoc in the New Territories and at the airport, toppling stacks of containers at the port, and uprooting hundreds of trees.


The Observatory, using criteria for raising warning signals that have existed for decades - wind speeds in Victoria Harbour - determined that only the signal  No 3 was warranted. With 3,000 passengers stranded at the airport because of cancelled flights, the call was clearly wrong - even if, as Observatory director Lam Chiu-ying insisted, the science in making the decision had been right and impartiality foremost.

Hong Kong has an excellent track record when it comes to advising residents of approaching inclement weather. The number of deaths as a result of storms and floods is remarkably low, proof of the skills of those who issue warnings.

But no matter how good the expertise of our meteorologists and the superiority of the equipment they use, nature can never be fully predicted. A typhoon can make a sharp turn without warning, or slow or speed up at will. The meteorologist's job is to ensure that we are kept as up to date as possible and told quickly about any threats.

In keeping with the high standards, Mr Lam has come good with his pledge after the controversy over Prapiroon. He has reviewed the signal system, found it wanting, and revised it. Rather than being centred on the harbour, wind speed monitors will now be positioned across Hong Kong and the average reading will determine which signal is hoisted.

With a wider net of monitors, the new method will mean that more No 8 signals may be raised each typhoon season. As a result, there will likely be increased disruption to commercial activities, schools, welfare centres and transport. Just how much inconvenience will be caused will not be clear until the system is assessed at the end of the coming typhoon season, after which alterations might be needed to create as near-perfect a system as possible.

Global weather conditions appear to be getting increasingly unstable, making it important for the Observatory to use its expertise as effectively as possible.

Hong Kong should not be unnecessarily shut down time and again, but neither should lives be put at risk. Finding the right balance will not be easy, but getting as close as possible to striking it is essential.



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If reading this will improve my english, then I must start reading now.

good thread, nice one

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
No stability in Thailand without the rule of law



   
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   The wave of bombings across southern Thailand's predominantly Muslim provinces shows that the military government's peace efforts are as flawed as those of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Only when the emergency powers held by security forces are removed and a legitimate, civilian government with a concern for the rights of all Thais, no matter what their religion, is in place will there be a chance for stability.

  
Such a possibility existed before Thaksin took power and adopted strong-arm tactics to try to wear down the resolve of separatists in the south. The response was an insurgency in early 2004, leading the government to adopt even tougher military, police and security force tactics and culminating in the order of rule by emergency decree in July 2005.

Enacting the perceived military solution was then southern army commander Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, a Muslim who last year led the coup against Thaksin. Despite promises to broker a peace deal, it is hardly surprising that the policies of the previous administration remain unchanged; a military government's solution to a problem is, after all, likely to be of a military nature.

Emergency rule has led to an increase in insurgency violence and widespread abuses by the military and police. The true extent of those violations is unclear because of the pervasive fear that has spread among Muslim communities. Thaksin was not interested in talking peace with the insurgents and the junta has adopted the same approach. The findings and recommendations of a national reconciliation commission set up in 2005 and headed by respected former prime minister Anand Panyarachun have been ignored.

It identified the main problems as the emergency regulations, a lack of justice for victims of human rights abuses and administrative excesses by authorities. Among the recommendations were relaxing military control, revamping the judicial system and the setting up of a peace corps made up of all involved parties, to administer balanced security. Despite the comprehensive work and the credentials of those involved, nothing has come of the exercise.

Military-appointed Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont revealed his lack of understanding of the situation last month when he praised the Philippines for having the model for his country to follow, through its deals struck with Muslim separatists on the southern island of Mindanao. With violence including bombings and kidnappings frequent in Mindanao, it is clear that the Philippines still has a long way to go before peace reigns on the island.

Such will also be the case in southern Thailand so long as the military junta rules the country with impunity and regards enforcing its will on the nation's Muslim minority as the only solution.





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Thursday, February 22, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Explanation needed on UK troop withdrawal



  
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   British Prime Minister Tony Blair's announcement that many of his country's troops will soon leave Iraq sends a mixed signal to Iraqis at a time when they need committed foreign help. With sectarian violence showing no sign of letting up, there is a need for coalition troops to continue providing security while preparing Iraqi forces for taking on this onerous task.

  
US President George W. Bush, who has ordered 21,000 extra troops into the Baghdad area, has shown his continued commitment to getting the job done. He is battling political and opinion poll opposition, but knows that it would be wrong to pull out of Iraq prematurely. But questions can be raised about Mr Blair's commitment, given his decision to reduce significantly the number of British troops serving in Iraq. This comes only months before he is expected to step down as prime minister. It smacks of opportunism - an attempt to appease domestic opposition to British involvement in Iraq before he hands over power. More benignly, perhaps, it might be an attempt to smooth the way for his successor.




The move has, understandably, raised suspicions that there might be a split in the coalition. There is no evidence of this in the statements from Mr Bush or Mr Blair. They have spoken of the success of their partnership in Iraq and of a confidence that peace and democracy will flourish and prosper. Australian Prime Minister John Howard, another steadfast member of the alliance, vowed yesterday that under no circumstances would his nation prematurely withdraw the 550 combat troops and 850 other military personnel he has committed to Iraq. US Vice-President Dick Cheney, visiting Japan before moving on to Australia, praised the strength of the Iraq alliance. As part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's forces in Afghanistan, Britain remains committed there militarily, along with the United States.

There is no need to question the British leader's assertion that, with time, there is increasingly less need for his country's soldiers to remain engaged in the three southern Iraqi provinces centred on Basra. The region has experienced far less activity from insurgents than Baghdad and Anbar province, where the extra American troops are being sent, and Mr Blair can rightly claim his nation's mission has, in that sense, been a success.

Proving that point, Britain on Tuesday put Iraqis in command of the main Iraqi army unit in Basra, a landmark move towards the goal of national security independence. That responsibility will increase as the British troops withdraw. This has long been the stated objective of the coalition: to train the army, police and security forces and gradually put them in charge of providing stability so foreign troops can return home. Doing so has not been straightforward, however, with the bloody rivalry between the religiously and politically dominant Shiite Muslims and the former ruling Sunni Muslims, coupled with attacks by foreign terrorists, severely hampering the process.

Circumstances around Basra have made bucking the trend possible, leading to the freeing up of British soldiers. But there is still a long way to go for Iraq as a whole. Consider the facts: the dozens of deaths in suicide bombings and gun attacks each day across Iraq; the 3.8 million people displaced from their homes, more than 2 million of them to neighbouring countries and elsewhere; the one-third of the 26 million Iraqis who live in poverty; the failed efforts to restore damaged infrastructure, most importantly electricity, sewerage and water; and the inability to adequately restore the nation's most precious lifeline for development, oil.

As allied troops poured into Iraq in March 2003 to overthrow dictator Saddam Hussein, Mr Blair was firmly beside Mr Bush in his commitment to rebuilding the country. The British leader owes his nation a better explanation of his thinking. To simply declare victory and pull out when Iraq is in such trouble would dishonour the men and women who have fought and died there.



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Friday, February 23, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Population changes a challenge for planners



  
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   The latest by-census figures show that Hong Kong has reached a crucial stage in its development, with a rapidly ageing population, marginal increase in the number of births, falling median household income and fewer people from developed economies coming here to work. There can be no better signal for the government to rethink its policies accordingly. The priority must be to ensure that our city remains an attractive place in which to live and do business.
Many of the problems highlighted by the 2006 population by-census are ones that we already know about. We have long been aware that the median age of the population is rising. Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen has expressed concern about our persistent low birth rate. And concerns about the wealth gap have been widely debated. What is unnerving is that despite this knowledge, there is little evidence that plans to help our city cope with such challenges are being formulated or implemented with any degree of urgency.

  
With an increasing number of older people, health care is an increasingly important issue. Yet the process for reforming our increasingly outdated health-care system has long been delayed. This is despite a decade of high-level recommendations, starting with the 1997 Harvard Report. The government is working on plans for change. But a consultation on the crucial question of how health care should be financed was recently postponed. Sustainable development is another issue that authorities have long been discussing. But despite the topic being raised in 1999, by then chief executive Tung Chee-hwa, who set the ball rolling by setting up the Sustainable Development Council, a series of consultation processes and reports have, as yet, not led to much action.

Yet the statistics released yesterday clearly define and detail the reasons why the government should be acting decisively rather than dragging its feet on such important matters.

Our population growth, now mainly due to new arrivals from the mainland, has been slowing. Official estimates had anticipated an average annual growth rate of 1 per cent. Plans for infrastructure and other developments have been based on these projections. But the by-census shows that over the past five years the annual average growth rate has been only 0.4 per cent. Our birth rate, among the lowest in the world, is partly to blame; but there is also the matter of fewer than expected mainland people wanting to take up residence here and a declining interest from those in western countries in taking up jobs.

These facts should come as no shock, given that cities such as Hong Kong that are financial and services centres make it attractive for women to delay having families for the sake of careers, plus our relatively high cost of living, air pollution and cramped living conditions. No wonder our population and its composition is changing.

Of as much concern to the government should be the ageing population, with the median age rising from 34 a decade ago to 36 in 2001 and 39 at the by-census. The trend is not substantially different than that for developed regions the world over, but whereas other governments are working towards solutions, Hong Kong is lagging behind. How the medical costs of so many more older people among our population should be dealt with is one issue that should not be left unresolved any longer. But the government appears nonplussed.

Hong Kong has reached a point where the population figure has levelled out. Without the need for development projects to cater for substantial growth, making our city more liveable and attractive has to be the government's priority. There are obviously difficulties ahead, as the latest by-census figures show. But there is no reason why creative solutions cannot be found.


What is now needed is for our leaders to recognise the urgency of determining the way forward - and putting plans into action.




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Monday, February 26, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
China, Russia must allay fears over warming ties



   
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   China's burgeoning relationship with Russia is based on economic, energy and military considerations, but there is also a geopolitical dimension that is troubling for some nations, the US among them. Beijing needs to take this into consideration when furthering its co-operation so as not to cause undue tensions.
Ties between China and Russia have led to friction with Washington several times in recent months. As the sides grow closer, the possibility of greater suspicion, and as a result the opportunity for misunderstanding, will increase.

  
No government would want a reoccurrence of the cold war, when rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union and their allies took the world to the brink of nuclear conflict. For this reason, openness and careful evaluation of decisions has to be foremost as China and Russia continue to build their partnership. The matter is not only one for Beijing and Moscow; Washington's actions in its "war on terrorism" have fuelled concern and US President George W. Bush has to be just as judicious about his future foreign policy decisions.

Of most worry is Iran, a key partner of China and Russia, which is engaged in a war of rhetoric with the US. Nowhere is there a greater need for a cooling of heels. Accused by the Bush administration of trying to develop nuclear weapons, supporting insurgents in Iraq and funding anti-Israel extremists in the Middle East, Tehran has been the subject of UN sanctions and repeated western calls for compliance with international treaties. China and Russia have been less enthusiastic about acting against an ally, using the threat of exercising their UN Security Council veto powers to have punitive measures watered down.

Given that Iran has ignored the sanctions and International Atomic Energy Agency demands over its nuclear programme, Beijing and Moscow leave themselves open to allegations of putting self interest ahead of global good. The same could be said over their joining forces last month to veto a US-drafted Security Council resolution that would have demanded Myanmar's military regime end political and human rights repression. China is Myanmar's staunchest ally.

President Hu Jintao met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, three times last year - more than any other foreign leader - and will hold more talks during Russia's Year of China, which begins today. Premier Wen Jiabao will also go to Moscow. Arms sales will continue growing, as will co-operation on military, space and technology matters.

There is nothing wrong with neighbours, especially ones as large and important as China and Russia, having such relations. To allay concerns from the US and its allies, though, they should consider the implications of their decisions so as to make sure the world is not taken down the path towards another cold war.



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Tuesday, February 27, 2007

ARMS SPENDING
Reining in American foreign policy


DOUG BANDOW
   
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   The Iraq war continues to consume lives, both American and Iraqi. The conflict is also burning mountains of cash. The Bush administration this month proposed a complex US$715-billion defence spending package, including US$481 billion for standard Pentagon operations and US$142 billion for the Iraq war next year.
So far, Iraq and Afghanistan have cost an estimated US$661 billion. By the time US forces finally go home, Americans will be US$1 trillion or more out of pocket. But Iraq is only part of a larger problem: the US spends so much on the military because of Washington's policy of promiscuous foreign intervention.

  
Indeed, America's military budget must be seen as the price of America's foreign policy. The more Washington policymakers desire to do around the globe, the more American taxpayers will have to pay. America is engaged in cold war spending without a cold war. The high price of global intervention is most obvious when comparing American expenditure with that of other nations. The International Institute for Strategic Studies calculated 2005 world military outlays at US$1.2 trillion. America accounted for US$495.3 billion, or 41 per cent.

American expenditure is roughly twice that of the rest of Nato, 4.5 times that of China and 8.5 times that of Russia. Washington spends as much as the next 20 countries combined, most of which are allies and friends. Indeed, the US devotes almost three times as much to the military as do all its potential adversaries combined: China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Myanmar, Venezuela and a handful of others.

America is not alone, however. Toss in Nato, non-Nato but friendly European countries, America's Asian allies and Israel, and the "free-world coalition" comes in at US$873.8 billion, or 72 per cent of global spending. Most of the rest aren't hostile, of course, simply not fully allied.

In short, America's military spending is vastly disproportionate to the threats it faces. The US continues to deploy hundreds of thousands of troops in Europe, which faces no military threats; Japan, which could defend its own interests; and South Korea, which vastly outranges its northern antagonist. Without an over- arching global threat, the security of such allies is no longer vital to the security of America.

The US could spend far less while remaining the most powerful single nation, able to play the role of an "offshore balancer" dedicated to ensuring that no hegemonic power dominates Eurasia. Real threats to the US primarily involve terrorism and nuclear proliferation. However, these dangers are not easily met with carrier groups, armoured divisions and vast military spending.

It's time to transform US foreign policy. Most pressing is the task of getting out of Iraq, sooner rather than later. But it is also time to focus on protecting the homeland, withdrawing America's outdated garrisons strung across the globe.

The US would be far more secure if it returned to a more traditional foreign policy, treating most international events with benign detachment.

Then its defence budget would be genuinely devoted to the country's defence. And it would cost Americans far less.

Doug Bandow is a former special assistant to president Ronald Reagan.



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Wednesday, February 28, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Plight of Afghanistan cannot be ignored



   
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   Whether US Vice-President Dick Cheney was the target of a suicide bombing in Afghanistan yesterday is a moot point given that there seems little likelihood that he could have been harmed in light of the top-level security around him. That was not the case for those killed, of course, or for the vast majority of Afghans who have increasingly become vulnerable to such attacks in the past year.
The reality is that Afghanistan, promised a new beginning when the Taleban regime was overthrown by US-led troops a little over five years ago, is no closer to the promised peace and security. Such is sadly also the case for Iraq.

  
There is a major difference, though; the talk among American leaders centres on Iraq, where there are more than 130,000 American soldiers and a further 21,000 gradually being deployed under plans announced last month by President George W. Bush. Afghanistan, a nation bigger in area and population, hosts 27,000 US soldiers among the 34,000 foreign troops under the transatlantic security alliance Nato based there.

Yet, as the attack near the air base where Mr Cheney was staying showed, the scale of violence can be as severe in Afghanistan as Iraq. Over the past year, the number of suicide bombings in Afghanistan has risen fivefold. The Taleban has made significant gains in winning back territory it lost and reimposing its extremist Islamist views on the population.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has voiced his concern time and again that the world is not watching his country as closely as it should be to usher in the peace it promised. The billions of dollars in aid promised at donors' meetings have trickled in. Some of the hospitals, schools and roads that have been built have been destroyed by the Taleban.

The US has not taken its eye from the country. Mr Bush made a surprise visit there last March and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was there three months later. Mr Cheney's trip further cemented the US' involvement.

As high-profile as the visits are, though, they lack the substance of a genuine commitment to bringing stability to Afghanistan so that infrastructure can be put in place and reconstruction begin in earnest. Without security, there will be no investment, essential if the nation is to move forward. That will only come about with a sizeable increase in foreign troop numbers. This has been realised by Britain, which has announced an increase in troop presence. The US and other Nato nations would do well to follow suit.

Iraq is the focus of international interest, but the plight of Afghans is as great. Efforts must be taken to correct the imbalance.

Mr Cheney's ordeal may have unwittingly gone some way to achieving this. The increased awareness of Afghanistan's problems that has resulted must continue.





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Thursday, March 1, 2007

OBSERVER
A free media and China's economy


TOM PLATE
   
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   The irrepressible Mahathir Mohamad, while Malaysia's long-reigning prime minister, once muttered something to the effect that people do not have the right to know everything, and that it won't kill them if they don't. This cavalier attitude towards freedom of information - a principle so revered in the west - is not unknown elsewhere in Asia, as well.
But Dr Mahathir was no dope. As the information technology revolution unfolded in front of our eyes, he became one of the first of Asia's leaders to recognise the importance of timely economic and political information in the context of the country's development.

  
The problem for Asia's leaders - who pined for continued economic growth - was thus how best to square the need for information with the desire to maintain governmental control of it. These days, that problem seems increasingly dramatic in mainland China - with its system of surveillance that overhangs everything like an oppressive rainforest.

In recent university and media appearances, I have been struck by how worried many people are about mainland China. Goodwill and high hopes for the world's most populous state are evident almost everywhere. But, increasingly, doubts are raised about the wisdom of Beijing's public-information policies. People wonder how China can possibly move forwards if its media policies are heading backwards.

A lively group of students and professors at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University assembled recently to discuss contemporary media issues. The range of students' interests was sweeping, but one question from a mainland student was especially striking. She wondered how one could be hopeful about the mainland if its media policies are not evolving in step with its economic and global ambitions.

Beijing's media policies do seem to be undergoing a back-to-the future directional change. "A few years ago, it was possible to talk about a combination of liberalisation and censorship in the Chinese media industry," wrote University of California PhD candidate James Paradise, in a review of a new volume of the authoritative mainland tome China's Media and Entertainment Law. "Now the story is more about censorship and a variety of other restrictions as the Chinese government seeks to reassert control after a period of rapid change."

The book is a collection of essays, some by Beijing officials, and it notes: "In mid-2005, the PRC government suddenly tightened the reins on China's media sectors, slowing and in some ways reversing its recent liberalisation of the television industry. [These changes] coincided with the turnover of top Sarft [State Administration of Radio, Film and Television] officials."

Beijing appears unembarrassed about an official change of direction that might bring back some of the distressful features of the bad old days of Mao Zedong . The mainland student's anguish was more than academic. Economic development in other parts of Asia gave rise to an increasingly monied and assertive middle class.

From Seoul to Taipei, that profound sociological development forced governments to lighten media control. The result was to spawn, with dizzying rapidity, near-modern economies that were suddenly wildly competitive globally.

Hong Kong, with as vigorous a media environment as anyone, sits proudly atop Asia's list of leaders in per-person income. Behind it are media-lively South Korea and Taiwan.

To be sure, Singapore tops them both, and sports a media system that can only be described as unique (controlled but high-quality).

As for the mainland, the question is whether a restrictive media policy will permit its per-person income to rise to the level of South Korea or push it in the other direction.

It may not be too western-centric to suggest that, by reducing media freedoms, China's leaders may be putting at risk its long-term chances of economic success. That, in any event, is the question that has so many people in Asia worried.

Tom Plate is a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy. Distributed by the UCLA Media Centre




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Amid all the extreme right-wing talk in Japan playing down or denying war-time atrocities, it is easy to forget that there are other voices. They may not be as vocal or have as powerful backers, but they are there, trying to chip away at the false rhetoric being spun.
As the report on our Behind the News section today shows, such opposing views are struggling to be heard. Nationalists in the government hold sway. Their anti-China stance will make efforts to mend ties between the countries an uphill task, unless the flaws in their arguments can be revealed to as wide a Japanese audience as possible.

  
In such circumstances, the work of organisations like the Chukiren Peace Memorial Museum have to be applauded. By standing up to those trying to play down or rewrite the history of Japan's aggression against Asians by presenting the facts conservatives do not want to hear or see, they are providing a great service to their country. Japan has nothing to gain, after all, by infuriating China through a refusal by its leaders to acknowledge atrocities committed by Japanese soldiers during the first half of last century. Through stability, the two nations can prosper together; at loggerheads, Japan will lose economically. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would appear to have shed his conservative outlook in trying to improve relations. His meeting in Tokyo with Premier Wen Jiabao next month will build on the steps already taken. With concerted effort, the sides will be able to put in place measures to substantially repair the damage done by Mr Abe's predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi.

Mr Koizumi's repeated visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where Class A war criminals are remembered along with Japan's war dead, outraged China, Korea and other nations occupied by Japanese troops. School textbooks whitewashing Japan's war-time atrocities, the massacre of up to 300,000 people during the Nanking Massacre among them, have further fuelled the anger. A refusal by leaders to fully apologise has hardened the resolve.

As yet, Mr Abe has not said whether he intends to follow Mr Koizumi's lead on the shrine, although there are worrying signs: a government spokesman hinted on Wednesday that he may. He visited there before becoming prime minister and was among lawmakers who backed a school textbook referring to the Nanking Massacre as an "incident". As today's report reveals, legislators are also giving financial support to a film trying to prove that such war crimes never occurred.

The bravery of those trying to present the truth is laudable. They are few in number and countering influential people.

Resolving the differences between China and Japan will not happen at one meeting between their leaders. Until Mr Abe and those around him appreciate what is keeping the sides apart and make amends, the prospect of a new beginning will be limited.


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Monday, March 5, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
Transparency will help keep the peace



  
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   Whenever military matters are raised by China, the rest of the world looks on with concern. This is, after all, a rapidly rising nation economically and politically, and an equally fast military rise would dramatically shift the global balance of power.
Beijing's unveiling of its defence budget for this year will not allay those fears: an increase of 17.8 per cent to 350.9 billion yuan catapults the nation into second spot in the spending stakes behind the United States.

  

The US is, of course, far ahead, with a defence budget almost nine times larger, even excluding spending on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. But Washington and its allies Japan and South Korea are ever-mindful of the mainland's military intentions and all developments are eyed with suspicion.

There is good reason for such mistrust: while Beijing repeatedly stresses that its intentions are peaceful and its military is solely for defence, it is far from transparent when it comes to revealing how its defence budget is allocated. Nor would defence appear to be Beijing's only objective when a large proportion of its most powerful military equipment - missiles chief among them - are aimed at Taiwan and in the direction of Japan.

There is no better proof of the need for the mainland to be open about its military programme than its destruction of an old weather satellite with a medium-range ballistic missile on January 11.

Amid alarm about the first such test in 20 years Beijing remained silent for 12 days until international pressure forced it to admit to the exercise. This was a carbon copy of the way the central government dealt with its missile and nuclear tests in the past. But those were the days when China had fewer financial resources and could not afford the double-digit budget increases that have for the past few years been given to the People's Liberation Army.

With the financial resources to modernise its outdated military equipment, China is losing no time in getting its defence house in order. Deals have been struck with Russia to get new aircraft, tanks and guns, and soldiers will be given pay rises.

Exactly what is being spent or acquired is shrouded in secrecy, however. While the US and other developed nations give highly detailed breakdowns of their defence budgets - the minutiae of which is publicly thrashed out by lawmakers - China gives scant figures beyond its overall spending. Even that is in doubt, with western critics saying the numbers are underestimated by two or three times.

The release of a defence white paper in December showed that Beijing is slowly changing its ways. Greater insight was given into how the military operates and where spending is allocated. Nonetheless, what was presented fell far short of what is revealed by western nations.

Being open is essential in the 21st century. Secrecy breeds mistrust and leads to miscalculations. Wars almost invariably start as a result of miscalculations. Beijing certainly does not want a war and is quick to point out that its foremost objective is peace. But it must also be remembered that Taiwan's unification with the mainland is a priority and that any attempt by the island's leaders to declare sovereignty will, Beijing vows, result in conflict.

The central government has been quite clear on this position - although exactly what military capabilities it would be able to devote to such a cause remains unclear. The number of missiles aimed across the Taiwan Strait is only guessed at by foreign observers.

The more China's military spending is hidden from scrutiny, the more mistrust and misunderstanding is created with the US and its allies. While such a situation continues, there will be no peace, only the danger of an arms race and insecurity. On military matters, it is therefore essential that the central government strives for transparency.



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Tuesday, March 6, 2007

EDITORIAL/LEADER
A pragmatic blueprint for democracy



  
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   The proposals for democratic reform put forward by Anson Chan Fang On-sang's think-tank yesterday are both principled and pragmatic. For that reason they will not find favour with people at either end of the political spectrum. But the blueprint, which includes a timetable for introducing universal suffrage, deserves serious consideration. It is a genuine attempt to come up with a formula that has a realistic chance of receiving mainstream approval.
Some democrats will, understandably, be unhappy with the group's reluctant acceptance that direct elections for all Legislative Council seats may not be possible until 2016. This seems too long to wait. Members of the business community may, on the other hand, feel uncomfortable with the suggestion that the existing corporate voting system be scrapped next year as a transitional step towards abolishing functional constituencies altogether. This, after all, will threaten the privileged position enjoyed by some influential members of our community.

  
But those on each side of the debate must understand that some compromises will be necessary as the process continues. Hong Kong has a constitutional duty to make progress towards universal suffrage and that is what the majority of people want. It is inevitable there will be different opinions on how to proceed. These can no longer be used as an excuse for making no progress at all.

Mrs Chan's group cannot be faulted for the principles it adopts when searching for a way forward. The aim must be universal and equal suffrage. Hong Kong needs a system that - whatever form it takes - expresses the will of the community. Elections should be open, transparent and fair. They must lead to a government that is genuinely representative.

The group has, at the same time, been careful to ensure its suggestions fall squarely within the terms of the Basic Law and, where the 2008 poll is concerned, Beijing's ruling three years ago. It has sensibly avoided any proposals that would require constitutional amendments.

None of this is particularly controversial. But the means of achieving universal suffrage and, especially, the time frame are matters of contention. The group has, therefore, adopted a pragmatic approach. It suggests keeping the functional constituencies in 2008 - and maybe 2012 - but reforming them. The idea is to scrap voting by corporations, a system that is outdated, open to abuse and incompatible with any credible definition of democracy. The size of the functional constituencies would be increased and they would be reduced in number. This is an improvement on the current system but - at least in the form the group suggests - it is far from ideal and only worth discussing as a transitional step.

Mrs Chan's group would prefer to see direct elections for all seats in Legco in 2012. Certainly, all sides should see that as the target date for universal suffrage. But the fallback position, which defers such a step until 2016, is perhaps necessary as it ensures a timetable remains in place even if agreement cannot be reached on the earlier date.

The chief executive election proposals are more straightforward, involving a vote on the basis of universal suffrage beginning in 2012. The group rightly envisages a nominating committee to put forward candidates, as required by the Basic Law. This should be a truly representative body. Much will depend on how it is elected. The number of nominations required to stand should not be set too high.

Hong Kong has been waiting a very long time for a fully democratic system. It is sobering to recall, on reading the group's report, that the process began more than 20 years ago and that little progress has been made since the handover.

The pro-democracy camp put forward its proposals last week. Now there is another model to consider. The government should produce its own proposals as soon as possible. If a consensus can be reached in Hong Kong, it will be easier to persuade Beijing that it has nothing to fear from allowing Hong Kong to realise the Basic Law's promise of universal suffrage.



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