1000X over-subscription in day 2 is incredible. It may go up to 1500X or more in the last day.
Let says there will be 1500X over-subscription in the last day.
Then there will be around 750X after crawback, and your hitting rate will
be 1/750 = 0.13%.
If 1% hitting, then you need to have 10% gain in day 1 to break even by margin.
If there is only 0.13% hitting, then u need to have 77% gain in order to break even!
No meat to eat this time.
《新股情報》傳匯源果汁(1886)公開發售超購逾千倍
2007/02/09 17:10
<匯港通訊> 巿場傳出,踏入第二日招股的匯源果汁(1886)公開招股部份的超額認購已到達1000倍,凍結資金高達2402.4億元,認購情況之熱烈極為誇張。
市場人士指出,受昨日首日掛牌的阜豐集團(0546)升37%,令不少股民賺錢,加上現大市市況陰晴不定,令散戶認為認購新股較有「保障」及贏面較高,估計市場會更加熱衷於認購新股。
匯源果汁是次發售總數4億股,其中10%公開發售,僅4000萬股,以每股上限價6元,1倍認購額便等於2.4億元,超購1000倍即凍結2402.4億元。若計及回撥機制的啟動,公開發售部份可分派的股數會升至2億股,中籤比率僅0.5%,即認購200手才中1手。
不過有市場人士指出,招股翌日認購已逾千倍是匪夷所思的,不過以股民對匯源果汁的認購反應來看,到截止認購時公開發售有逾千倍認購是不足為奇的。
[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-2-9 22:17 編輯 ]