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標題: [How] would you take profit and underweight? [打印本頁]

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-5 08:58 標題: [How] would you take profit and underweight?

Personally I think 22500-23000 [in July and August] is a good trading range to take some profit first, because minor or moderate correction, let say back to 20800-21300, is rather likely despite the still bullish trend.

Any comment and suggestion for strategic profit-taking?

作者: sdc2005 時間: 2007-7-5 09:24

Personally I think it depends on which stock you are holding. I started to
sell part of 1800 & 1880. Too bad I have sold #388 at a month ago. But I have bought some 1 yesterday. So far your prediection is quite
accurate so what do you think the index will be by the end of this
year ??? Thanks !!!!

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-5 09:45

引用:

原帖由 sdc2005 於 2007-7-5 01:24 發表
Personally I think it depends on which stock you are holding. I started to
sell part of 1800 & 1880. Too bad I have sold #388 at a month ago. But I have bought some 1 yesterday. So far your p ...

well, my expectation is not a "prediction", just an informed guesses,,, But guessing top or bottom is never exact, yet I think 23500-+24500 is quite likely at the end of 2007, but before reaching that level a correction is rather likely,,,,

Pushing up from 20700 to the current 22xxx was mainly the effort of strong players/hongs/funds, so they would like to distibute it downward first before another wave of collection and pushing up again,,,

So my wild guess is that gradual distribution downsward from 22500-23000 to around 21000 would be best for them to take profit and then pushing up again for the final big bull,,,,

作者: mysyu 時間: 2007-7-5 14:00

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-5 08:58 發表
Personally I think 22500-23000 is a good trading range to take some profit first, because minor or moderate correction, let say back to 20800-21300, is rather likely despite the still bullish tren ...

I agree that this would likely be the trend.

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2007-7-5 16:50

內地股市大跌，上海綜合指數收市報3,615點，跌200點，跌幅5.25%。

上海A股收報3,794點，跌210點，跌幅5.26%。

深圳A股收報1,059點，跌66點，跌幅5.94%。

--

The correction should be coming really soon?

作者: sdc2005 時間: 2007-7-5 18:15

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-5 09:45 發表

well, my expectation is not a "prediction", just an informed guesses,,, But guessing top or bottom is never exact, yet I think 23500-+24500 is quite likely at the end of 2007, but bef ...

Lets wait and see !! Good Luck !!!

作者: leoxi 時間: 2007-7-6 00:56

I do agree a moderate correction will come sooner or later. Nonetheless HSI 20 day moving average will be a good support.

In terms of reducing positions, I think any stock with a recent gain over 25% within 2 weeks is a good selling indicator.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-6 09:32

Agree,,,,

no need to earn every penny from investment,,, 22xxx is a reasonable level, but correcting 5% is also very likely and healthy,,,, and if index stays at current level with some add momentum to around 22500-23000, many small investors will be anxious to see +24000 and compulsive to collect, providing good chance for big players to distribute first....

My last stock purchase was when index stagnant around 20300-20800, so I still have room for wiating, but dropping below the resistance around 219xx-22xxx (10 day MA and breakout points) Mcould lead to a mild to moderate correction (testing 50, 100 or even 150 MA),,,,,

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2007-7-6 16:50

市況反覆, 變幻莫測, 下午好多 blue chip 都追落後咁, 睇黎未必咁快完, 感覺學 D 友仔話齋, 審慎樂觀

作者: titov 時間: 2007-7-6 21:53

個人認為炒股黎講, 買中強勢股既方法都係坐定定等收錢。如果講指數既話, put真係制唔過, 好似今日食完飯返黎, 見到一夾就二百點, 跟住就兩日假, 你話點算好。

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-9 17:25

Very strong momentum, and my 3988 and 903 are doing okay...

Still cautious optimistic...

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-7-9 21:01

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-9 17:25 發表
Very strong momentum, and my 3988 and 903 are doing okay...
Still cautious optimistic...

Everything is more than OK! Look at 2628 and 388.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-13 09:20

今天應創新高:

要留意有没有

1. 成交／新高背馳... 若成交少於 900 億, 要小心小心 (moderately negative signal)
2. 高開低收大陰燭 (+150) 或單日轉向 (very negative signal)
3. 上升／下跌比例 (negative signal if less than 1:1 with record HSI level)
4. 老散大接大户派貨 (VERY VERY negative signal)

如上述情形有三個或以上出現, Sayonara,,,

若只有 0-1 個, 出現則舞可照跳

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2007-7-13 14:06

多謝分析, 似乎都應該繼續跳舞

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-7-13 14:20

引用:

原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-7-13 14:06 發表
多謝分析, 似乎都應該繼續跳舞

So Mr. Stanley Ho may be right. HSI has a chance to reach 25,000 this year.

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2007-7-13 16:55

大市高開後反覆，恆指收市報23099.29點創收市新高，升290.27，成交804億元。

one man show of 941

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-14 00:20

引用:

原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-7-13 08:55 發表
大市高開後反覆，恆指收市報23099.29點創收市新高，升290.27，成交804億元。

one man show of 941

yes

Today...

1. 成交／新高背馳... 若成交少於 900 億, 要小心小心 (moderately negative signal)
Showing not enough momentum

But other negative signals were not present....
2. 高開低收大陰燭 (+150) 或單日轉向 (very negative signal)... not true,,,
3. 上升／下跌比例 (negative signal if less than 1:1 with record HSI level),,, not true...
4. 老散大接大户派貨 (VERY VERY negative signal)... not true...

只有 0-1 個出現, 舞可照跳

The HSI trading range was moving up to +226xx to 23xxx/24xxx in the thrid quarter,,, I would set 10 day MA as cut-win level and let the profit run,,,

But the momentum is not too strong and the market may need some consolidation next week, but I don't think we have reached 3rd quarter top, index still have room for testing +23500-24000 level in coming 2 weeks....

OVER

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-7-14 17:43

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-14 00:20 發表
1. 成交／新高背馳... 若成交少於 900 億, 要小心小心 (moderately negative signal)
Showing not enough momentum
But other negative signals were not present....
2. 高開低收大 ...

Why? 800億 is a lot already. Not too long ago, the HK exchange was turning over @500 億 only. The problem is that it is still easy to manipulate HSI by targeting #5 and #941.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-15 05:29

brother, new high but divergence in volume, previous 2-3 new high have over 1000 億!!!

This shows a lack of momentum...

[ 本帖最後由小花至愛於 2007-7-14 22:35 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-7-16 09:15

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-15 05:29 發表
brother, new high but divergence in volume, previous 2-3 new high have over 1000 億!!!
This shows a lack of momentum...

Sure but how can market have 1,000億 turnover every day (unless it has been averaging over 1,000億 for a while).

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-16 10:34

yes, so I'm not saying 100 billion in every trading day, but the day breaking record high for +200-300 point should have good volume, even not record, should be above recent average,,, that's the meaning of divergence,,, the current scenario could mean some hongs had marked up and distribute (negative candlestick), or at least having reservation at current price level,,,

Conclusion: momentum has slowdown and need to build up again (after a short-medium period of consolidation around 22800-23300)... but the danger of dropping deep and fast, from the indicators I listed above, is not likely,,,,

[ 本帖最後由小花至愛於 2007-7-16 02:35 編輯 ]

作者: titov 時間: 2007-7-16 19:02

眼見D指數成份股動力減弱左, 我過去兩個交易日都沽左好多貨, 剩下25%貨度......

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-7-17 00:02

引用:

原帖由 titov 於 2007-7-16 11:02 發表
眼見D指數成份股動力減弱左, 我過去兩個交易日都沽左好多貨, 剩下25%貨度......

Good job, underweigh is a sensible move this week.... but by the end of this week the momentum maybe back,,,, I have no idea but better watch out,,,, I still hold around 85% stock after selling relative "expensive" stocks and buy back less "expensive" stocks these 2 days,,,

I already expect this week should be consolidating above 10 day MA around [22800 - 23300],,, Let see if 10MA (currently 226xx, 1-2 days later to be around 227xx) had support or not,,, if dropping below it, I will underweigh to 30-50% stock,,,

[ 本帖最後由小花至愛於 2007-7-16 16:11 編輯 ]

作者: titov 時間: 2007-7-20 19:38

今日市場預期中央將對過熱既經濟作出調控, 下午市見國內A股越升越有, 自己立即將五成資金重新投入市場。歐美股市剛完成調整, 中央調控手段與預期配合。下星期應該會大漲小回, 持淡倉較為下風。

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-7-20 22:20

引用:

原帖由 titov 於 2007-7-20 19:38 發表
今日市場預期中央將對過熱既經濟作出調控, 下午市見國內A股越升越有, 自己立即將五成資金重新投入市場。歐美股市剛完成調整, 中央調控手段與預期配合。下星期應該會大漲小回, 持淡倉較為下風。

Small increase in interest rate. May cause some minor adjustment next week.

作者: ytt 時間: 2007-7-21 01:54

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-7-20 22:20 發表

Small increase in interest rate. May cause some minor adjustment next week.

may open low
but end up equal or high
if open too low then good chance to buy

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