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標題: 圖表分析看後的市 [打印本頁]

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-6 19:02 標題: 圖表分析看後的市

HSI has broken the 10-week avearge line today (at 22,127) and at the same time the 50-day line (at 21,931) has also been broken, with the lowest at 21,917. However, HSI rebound after touching the 50-day line, so as I suggested yesterday 50-day average could still serve as the short term support.

I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.

I guess tomorrow HSI will also rebound to fill the gap produced today.

Your view please ??

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-6 20:59

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-6 19:02 發表
HSI has broken the 10-week avearge line today (at 22,127) and at the same time the 50-day line (at 21,931) has also been broken, with the lowest at 21,917. However, HSI rebound after touching the 5 ...

No, it will fall!

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-6 21:55

Dow still fluctuate a lot at its start. However, Yen go back to 117.89. 10 year bond yield jumps 0.024. All these indicators suggests Dow is very likely to have a rebound tonight waiting for the comments and the decision of Federal Reserve.

作者: leoxi 時間: 2007-8-6 22:38

Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-6 22:59

引用:

Originally posted by leoxi at 2007-8-6 22:38
Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

Yes,

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-6 23:16

I have observed Dow for 1.5 hours tonight, and noticed that there were still some pressure/little buying force at the top, but it is very good that when Dow touch the negative region, it will rebound and turn positve again.

After a big drop in the last week, Dow seems to recover from a "big flu", and it takes time for it to achieve full recovery, anyway it will be better later. Hopefully Dow will have at least some gain tonight, so HSI will have a rebound tomorrow

Please also note that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection tonight, so the credit concern raised again and erased Dow early gain.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-6 22:59 發表

Yes,

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 00:18

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-6 23:16
I have observed Dow for 1.5 hours tonight, and noticed that there were still some pressure/little buying force at the top, but it is very good that when Dow touch the negative region, it will rebou ...

Yes, it is. I hope so too. Dow needs time to recover its previous loss. Home Mortgage problem is not that big to affect whole US. In Reuter said, there are less 5% owners who are not able continously to make their payment and unemplyment rate is low. Therefore, market is over reacted and exaggerated the real situation.

So, it is an excuse for fund houses to crash the market easily. Especially in HK, only HSBC has done 2nd home mortgage in US and its earning report was great, better than expectation.
Bank of China claimed, only lost several millions US dollars that is much much smaller than Chinese banker who had stolen money from bank of China. Maybe US problem only 0.001% compared to herself in China.

HK market still looking good, if HK market not dropped, how can those fund houses to buy more cheap stocks when QDII money coming to HK soon.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-7 08:25

Yes, I agree. Sub-prime is actually not a very very big issue that could make the whole US economy to the downside, as mentioned in the last Feb, but of course if this issue can't be tackled in a sensible way it could lead to many other problems. Anyway, good to see that Dow really rebound and up 280 points.

Yesterday even the investment banks such as Bear Stearn also rebound by more than 5%. However, the market might over-estimate the remedial action possibly taken by the Federal Reserve or the US government for the credit risk.

Let's see how HSI react today.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 00:18 發表

Yes, it is. I hope so too. Dow needs time to recover its previous loss. Home Mortgage problem is not that big to affect whole US. In Reuter said, there are less 5% owners who are not abl ...

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 09:14

引用:

原帖由 leoxi 於 2007-8-6 22:38 發表
Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

Wait and see but should be UP after big rise in US overnight.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 10:43

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 08:25
Yes, I agree. Sub-prime is actually not a very very big issue that could make the whole US economy to the downside, as mentioned in the last Feb, but of course if this issue can't be tackled in a s ...

Lacking of power for rebound this morning so far, only 200 pts, under our expectation. Hopefully, getting up and up today.

People are looking for steady market after dropped over 500 pts in a days for couple times within 2 weeks. Who really want to buy more shares in this downside market.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-7 14:23

HSI still haven't fully recovered from a flu. Taiwan drop, Nikkel nearly level. I suppose HSI will go up again in the afternoon trading session.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 14:33

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 14:23
HSI still haven't fully recovered from a flu. Taiwan drop, Nikkel nearly level. I suppose HSI will go up again in the afternoon trading session.

I hope so, but atmosphere is not that good.
Always wish for the best and prepare for worst

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 15:10

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 14:33 發表
I hope so, but atmosphere is not that good.
Always wish for the best and prepare for worst

The WORST is yet to come!

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 15:17

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 15:10

The WORST is yet to come!

I think so, based on past experience, the market would big drop 2~3 days in a role. When everybody lost confident, and sold most or all their stocks on hand, then the all stocks and market will rise dramatically. Since big guys collected most cheap stocks from us

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 15:35

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 15:17 發表
I think so, based on past experience, the market would big drop 2~3 days in a role. When everybody lost confident, and sold most or all their stocks on hand, then the all stocks and market w ...

BINGO. You know the rules very well!

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 15:41

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 15:35

BINGO. You know the rules very well!

After paying so much school fee before, should learn something from there

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 16:06

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 15:41 發表
After paying so much school fee before, should learn something from there

Hope you kept your cool. I lost big on some "9th rate companies" but easy come easy go!

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 16:17

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 16:06

Hope you kept your cool. I lost big on some "9th rate companies" but easy come easy go!

Pretty bored these days when looking at the market keep gonig downside everyday; all I have to do, save cash at this stage, don't buy anything, just waiting and be patient until finally crash; then buy all stocks and call warrants as many as I can to recover my loss.

I also lost badly on call warrants too

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 16:36

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 16:17 發表
Pretty bored these days when looking at the market keep gonig downside everyday; .

Why don't you PUT instead?

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 17:02

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 16:36

Why don't you PUT instead?

I lost 30% on thursday 2 weeks ago when the market turned to downward from upward in the morning, and I just waited for another day, but friday, I lost another 50% in a day. So, nothing I can do since paper value lost 70%. Therefore, I just hold it and wait till the end of correction, then mass buy back more shares and call warrant for recovery.

The market may stop downside at 21500, or maybe 21000, or even 20000. So, I rather to hold it til end of this month in my situation

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 17:05

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 17:02 發表
I lost 30% on thursday 2 weeks ago when the market turned to downward from upward in the morning, and I just waited for another day, but friday, I lost another 50% in a day. So, nothing I ca ...

My friends have cut loss on HSI Index futures. All were killed off by the bear.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 17:16

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 17:05

My friends have cut loss on HSI Index futures. All were killed off by the bear.

Agreed and I got that experience before; especially with HSI future, too rough and could loss huge money on it.
I only use my cash account to do trade, no margin at all. All I lost, is all the cash I have on hand. Different from HSI future.

I owed so much much money when I cut off at HSI future in 2003; took me 4 yrs to pay back. Big lesson

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-7 17:19

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 17:16 發表
Agreed and I got that experience before; especially with HSI future, too rough and could loss huge money on it.
I only use my cash account to do trade, no margin at all. All I lost, is all ...

Yes, so is lesson that easy money cannot be made by hardworking people? Large profits are for the big players?

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-7 17:22

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 17:19

Yes, so is lesson that easy money cannot be made by hardworking people? Large profits are for the big players?

Always truth

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-7 22:11

It is really out of our expectation that HSI still need to drop even if Dow rise more than 280 points which is the highest gain since 2003. Please also note that there is a "Massacre" in the small stocks market and most of the small stocks drop at least 10-20% (261, 245 & 648 for example). It seems that the hedge fund is taking profit everywhere and lead the drop. Owing to the fact that HSCEI is rising too quickly in the past few months, so the comparatively bigger drop in HSCEI is reasonable as the big crocodile buy the HSCEI chips at a relatively low price (such as 1800 & 2328). They could still earn a lot even if they throw to the market now.

My prediction is that HSI could still hold the 50-day line (same as HSCEI), but tonight is a very crucial moment to determine the pace of the US market as Federal Reserve might give some hints to the market whether or not the rate cut will happen soon (the market was disappointed with the strong economic data tonight).

My another observation is that some of the relatively weak blue chips could still hold the 100-day line (except 17). However, 941 and 2628 is still strong and haven't touched the 50-day line.

Let see whether HSI need to go to another support at 21,301 (i.e. 20-week avearge line which is away from the present position by around 600 points). If so, HSI will fall around 2,000 points from the recent peak, which records a 8.5% drop. (in last Feb a 11% drop was recorded)

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-7 22:15 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-8 00:33

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 22:11
It is really out of our expectation that HSI still need to drop even if Dow rise more than 280 points which is the highest gain since 2003. Please also note that there is a "Massacre" in ...

Thanks for your information.
During correction at this time, no matter how good Dow doing unless Dow up roll up big 2 days in a road; otherwise, HK market still going downward.

US up, then HK opened a bit high, but not much, then going down to even or even negative at closing.
US down, then HK down much much faster and deeper.
The situation almost happens everytime, is a must, same trend, think about how was HK market in correction before.

I don't think this week is good at all, be patient

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-8 08:34

Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !

Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend to buy something at this moment. Choosing some of the "good and quality" blue chips at this moment would be safe as you could keep it for a long time until it come back to your home price.

Back to the statement made by the Federal, in its brief document Sub-prime's matters haven't been commented. However, the memebers of the open committee agreed that

"Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy"

If they are correct, credit concern will not pose significant threat to the economy, so Dow first down 120 points after the statement and up again by around 130 points (because of the good outlook of the economy even with credit risk). Rise in commodity price (e.g. oil) is still a big concern to create inflation (however, not the code CPI which is calculated without counting enery and food).

After the release of rate unchanged, the bond yield return to a "quite normal" level. Yen is still okay trading in the range of 118.5 to 118.9.

I guess HSI will have a "real" rebound today.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 00:33 發表

Thanks for your information.
During correction at this time, no matter how good Dow doing unless Dow up roll up big 2 days in a road; otherwise, HK market still going downward.

US up, the ...

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-8 10:25

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 08:34
Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !

Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend ...

Yes, it is a rebound this morning.
What I meant recently, if Dow getting downward and HK would follow down trend and even deeper. This is always the trend during correction in HK.

Correction is not last for a day or 2, it is lasting for couple weeks normally. Therefore, rebound is still exist during correction, but not much power on it. You can look how the market is doing these 2 weeks.

Of course, I wish the correction is over, then whole market rises again, and we all make $$

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-8 12:17

A good and strong rebound today, that's excellent !

Other Asian market also have a good U turn today.

As I could observe that the uptrend of HSI is leaded by 941 and 5, I do think the rise today is healthy. I don't think the gain will be erased this afternoon. Haha

(Dear 3a4b5c6c, sorry i can't reply to you right now. I will give you some response after work today.

)

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 10:25 發表

Yes, it is a rebound this morning.
What I meant recently, if Dow getting downward and HK would follow down trend and even deeper. This is always the trend during correction in HK.

Correc ...

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-8 13:38

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 12:17
A good and strong rebound today, that's excellent ! Other Asian market also have a good U turn today.

As I could observe that the uptrend of HSI is leaded by 941 and 5, I do think the rise to ...

Yes, market looks good today, I hope both 941 & 5 can lead market all the way up and the correction is over. But we still have to be caution as well; better to wait for see for 2 more days.

Since it still might be a trapped to us, people got back confidenet and started to buy more and more shares then big drop. This period of time, better to play more safe, I don't mind to buy spend small money to buy some potential stocks, but not big money at this moment.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-8 22:50

We really have a very good day this afternoon ! Tonight, Dow is up 80 points, it seems that Dow continue to rebound after its previous 280 points rise on Monday.

For HSI, even if the turnover today is comparatively small, it would still be okay as a lot of investors are still observing the market and hence small turnover. According to my experience, if they could confirm the recent correction has finished, the turnover will be bigger and push the HSI further up.

But of course, negative factors are still there in the market. It is really very difficult to say whether the correction has finished or not. It takes at least one or two day more before we could have a conclusion on the direcion of the market. However, at least, we know the Federal Reserve is still optimistic about the moderate growth of US economy even with the credit risk and other concern.

The gap (at around 22,240 to 22,640) produced by the drop on Monday was filled today. The upper resistance should be at around 23,240. And of course for the down side, I still think that 50-day line (at 21,999) could still serve a good support at the moment.

Dear my friends, we need to get prepared and plan for what should we do (buy or sell) in different situation, as the direction of HSI is still unclear.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 13:38 發表

Yes, market looks good today, I hope both 941 & 5 can lead market all the way up and the correction is over. But we still have to be caution as well; better to wait for see for 2 more da ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 22:53 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-8 23:07

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 22:50
We really have a very good day this afternoon ! Tonight, Dow is up 80 points, it seems that Dow continue to rebound after its previous 280 points rise on Monday.

For HSI, even if the turnover to ...

Totally correct, I am also thinking of the same way.

From past experience, big guy will push up HSI close to 23000, then pull down to 22000.  Back and forth for  couple times, but the gap will be smaller and smaller everytime.  For 1000 pts reduce to 300 pts.
It happens almost everytime(90%) times.  This is their technique to do it.

At the final stage, when everybody fully confident and used up all purchasing power, then big guy will pull down the market to 21000 if any global news in negative at the same time when HSI down to 22000.

I will sell most or all stocks when HSI reach 23000, and wait for it drop back to 22000 and buy back all.  The back and forth trend will last for 3~4 times easily.  But be more caution when it hit the third times 22000.  Since more and more times to hit 22000 and get rebound, then all people will be crazy to buy and buy all shares without alert.  Then got trap.  This will happen if big guy wants to pull market down, it can last for 2 months, just like in March this year.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-8 23:18

3a4b5c6c, you are also an experienced investor !! You are right.

For me to have an example of the pattern, just imagine a ball falling from a high position, it will have a very steep fall and then rebound, and fall again, so and so forth.

However, within rebound and fall, if you could take the right time, you could earn some money at least (for example I have bought 291 yesterday at 29.55 and sell at 30.35 today with a net profit of $1,100 {because i have a price in mind how much I earn will make myself happy so I will sell immediately without haste if reaching that target}, even if the profit is small, but i am still very happy with it). Therefore, the trend of the market need our frequent observation.

Trap and risk are always there in the market, more observation in the market will make you more confidence to determine the HSI future movement.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:07 發表

Totally correct, I am also thinking of the same way.
From past experience, big guy will push up HSI close to 23000, then pull down to 22000. Back and forth for couple times, ...

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-8 23:40

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 23:18
3a4b5c6c, you are also an experienced investor !! You are right.

For me to have an example of the pattern, just imagine a ball falling from a high position, it will have a very steep fall and th ...

Exactly what we supposed to do during this pattern if I guessed it right.  Since big guys do this everytime.

Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 or $10000, reach your target price and can; nothing wrong.  As long as you feel comfort and satisfy.

I have been trading stocks for long time, won and lost a lot of money from US and HK market before, is getting better now after paying so much school fee, should be smarter than before.  but still learning everytime when I did not sell my stocks on hand before correction.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-8 23:52

You are exactly right !! When I invested in every stock, I always have a target price in mind, the price that could make you feel happy, haha (sometime it is really $1000 or $10,000) !!

However, during the fluctuated market, even you earn $1,000 it is still somehow difficult. For me I will have a list of good blue chips to monitor, if those chips fall to a unreasonable price, I will buy it for short term and earn some money (such as 291). If it really fall below your buying price, that's fine because you could keep it as it is good in nature.

By the way, 3a4b5c6c, you should be very experienced. I don't have experience in trading the US market (even if several months ago I wish to buy the stock Apple before its release of I-phone). I will monitor the US market and some of its stocks only !! I still have lesson with Dow and HSI everyday (and of course other markets such as European markets and Asian market)!!

Please share with me and other friends here more !! I am not as experienced as you do as I join the game at the time when HSI is at around 11,000.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:40 發表

Exactly what we supposed to do during this pattern if I guessed it right. Since big guys do this everytime.

Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 23:56 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-9 00:23

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 23:52
You are exactly right !! When I invested in every stock, I always have a target price in mind, the price that could make you feel happy, haha (sometime it is really $1000 or $10,000) !!

However, ...

Yes, should hold some potential blue chips for long run, it will be big winner.
I am holding some good blue chip and potential stocks such as 941, 2628, 3993, 1800, 939, 5 yrs later, its would be turned out couple times from now for some of these stocks.  I hold some of it from 2 yrs ago.
Another good stocks to hold for 1 yr from now such as 753, 552, 2899, 939, 1898, turn out will be good too

That is very truth, it is tough to make money during correction, no matter you made 1000 or 10000, always be caution at all time especially on upside, people will be less and less caution, always get a big trap when market turns around.

For US market, I did not trade anymore, I did trade it back to 1996~1999 when I was in north america, I traded most stocks in Nasdaq, made big and loss big there too when Nasdaq dropped couple thousand pt back to 1500 pts, then I quited it for while.
Till 2000, I opened US account at Charles Schwab in HK, and started to trade again.  But you have to watch the market all night, make you so tired.

But the most important thing is, US stock can be up and down so fast and so big. Blue chip can drop 20% or more if they have bad news come.  Even good earning report, but fair or negative comment for future, the stock can be unbelievable dropped.  I had IBM before, earning report beat the street, but they announced slow down next quarter, then the price dropped by 20%, from $120 to 100/share in a minute. Many big stocks dropped from 150 to $2 in short period of time before.

It is not easy to trade in these yrs since US market always support by high tech and bank stocks. And high tech stocks can not go back to the record high from yrs ago.

I personally would say, HK and China market are very good in next couple yrs, but not US.
If you want to trade US stock, you are better to open US account.  Can choose Charles Schwab, it is a big broker firm, and get some information from them first.
For specific stock, I can advise you even I did not trade there for long time.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-9 21:12

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 08:34 發表
Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !
Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend ...

Don't underestimate the strong JPY. It will come back to put the stock market into chaos. Wait till it gets to @115 against USD.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-9 21:14

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:40 發表
Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 ...

One should based sell or buy decisions on percentages, not absolute $ targets.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-9 21:46

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-9 21:14

One should based sell or buy decisions on percentages, not absolute $ targets.

It depends on the real situation. If market doing down, no matter how much money or % you made or lost. Have to sell your stocks immediately.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-9 22:02

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 21:46 發表
It depends on the real situation. If market doing down, no matter how much money or % you made or lost. Have to sell your stocks immediately.

This is always good in theory but hard to do in reality. Not many small players know how and when to cut loss.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-9 22:25

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-9 22:02

This is always good in theory but hard to do in reality. Not many small players know how and when to cut loss.

Yes, I agreed, I fell in traps so many times before, and learnt a lot of lessons. Now getting much better and better, not fall to trap often, even fall , only small %, it is okay

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-9 22:25

3a4b5c6c, you are really a verteran investor. I admire you so much because of your experience in the US market. By the way, thanks for your kindest help in offering me advice on the US individual stocks. Actually, i am more intersted in trading stocks in the HK market since I also don't wish to sleep with high tension (otherwise will have no energy to work during the day time). Anyway, if that need arises, I will seek for your suggestion for sure.

Back to the discussion in the market, as I mentioned in my previous post, we still need to observe the market for a few days before we could confirm the correction has finished. Yesterday we have filled the gap produced on Monday. After filling the gap, the index going up or down is still an uncertainty. But now it seems that HSI really need to test the strength of 50-day line tomorrow.

It is really not a good news that BNP was one of the victims in subprime crisis. The market is now thinking that more and more other investing banks will come out and admit that they are affected by the credit crisis too. Thus, the european market, especially BNP's home country - CAC, fall more than 2%, while Dow drop around 1.5%. However, it is really praiseworthy for the very fast reaction of Euro Bank to stable the credit market.

In my point of view, I still buy the comments given by the Federal Reserve that US economy will not be seriously affected by the subprime concern and will continue to have moderate growth. Most of the big US companies still have a good bi-annual result. I think if the market drop to a certain level (i don't think it is substantially away from the present position) the fund managers and other investors will come out and buy to support the market.

It is challenging to predict whether Yen will go down to 115 or not. In recent days it is traded within a range of 117.8X to 119.7X. We should see whether Yen could break 118 and stand at around 117.8 first. Please note that BOJ will determine the rate decision again on 22 & 23 August. Some say that BOJ will rise the interest this time and some say that BOJ will not raise the rate because of instable political atmosphere. Therefore this incoming meeting is very important to determine the trend of the US and HSI market. (Note: In the last two rise in the BOJ's interest, the market drop signifcantly afterwards)

Be careful in trading !!

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 00:23 發表

Yes, should hold some potential blue chips for long run, it will be big winner.
I am holding some good blue chip and potential stocks such as 941, 2628, 3993, 1800, 939, 5 yrs later, its wou ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-9 22:34 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-9 22:55

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-9 22:25
3a4b5c6c, you are really a verteran investor. I admire you so much because of your experience in the US market. By the way, thanks for your kindest help in offering me advice on the US individual s ...

Thanks for your comment, I am appreicated to hear that since I am not an expert on market, but thanks anyway. Surely you may ask for specific US stock since I do know some and also many of my friends are doing trade at US market in north america today.

It is better to concentrate in HK market since we are here.
You information and analysis are so good, calm and clear. You know what you are doing.

100% agreed your opinion.
Initially, I expected HSI would rebound to 22900 and drop back for 1000 pts.  And HSI turned around at 22797 today, I think HSI will test 50 day line tomorrow, and have a high % to break through down to 21800~21600 in next 2~3 trading days if US market still have bad news coming.
Close to 21800, I think I will buy some stocks for rebound, if going down deeper to 21600, then buy more, and big rebound will be there.  This kind of trend will last for 3~5 times during correction as I had mentioned before.  Take these back and forth to make some money.  always within 1000 pts, the gap getting narrow and narrow each time till 300 pts, then market will rise again.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-10 00:14

Thank you very much for your good comments on me, 3a4b5c6c !! I am still a little kid in the market. Let's share with other friends here more.

I love your clarification of "drop narrowing", 3a4b5c6c. It is true indeed !! The whole August is actually a challenging month to do the investment (July and August is usually the month with a lot of fluctuation as in the past years). Pending the BOJ's rate decision on 23 August, as mentioned before, is very important to decide the direction of the market.

Haha, let me remind all of our friends here of the incoming QDII money. It seems that the hot "red money" will come at the earliest in late August and September. Everyone seems to forget all the good news during a downside market.

As in the past years, after we go through the "challening" August, we will see another record high again in the late 3rd quater and the 4th quater of 2007.

Dow only drop 117 points now, Good !! Are they expecting Federal Reserve will do something to remedy the market ?? Haha !! Likely that the US economy is still in a good shape !! Hopefully Dow will not be pulled down again during the last half an hour.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 22:55 發表

Thanks for your comment, I am appreicated to hear that since I am not an expert on market, but thanks anyway. Surely you may ask for specific US stock since I do know some and also many of ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 00:16 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-10 11:03

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 00:14
Thank you very much for your good comments on me, 3a4b5c6c !! I am still a little kid in the market. Let's share with other friends here more.

I love your clarification of "drop narrowing&q ...

That truth QDII is coming soon, will lead the market up.

Dow dropped 387 pts last night, and caused HK over 700 pts. I bought some shares this morning

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-10 16:10

I sell Espirt this morning at 104.8 (at 9:50) which I bought on last Friday because I afraid that Dow will drop further today. Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that.

You are so brave to buy some stocks today. For me now I will switch to buy some conservative stock (such as 1398) if it fall to my target buying price. Haha !

Will share with you more tonight !

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 11:03 發表

That truth QDII is coming soon, will lead the market up.

Dow dropped 387 pts last night, and caused HK over 700 pts. I bought some shares this morning

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-10 18:02

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 16:10 發表
Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that..

Keep CASH for now.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-10 20:24

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 16:10
I sell Espirt this morning at 104.8 (at 9:50) which I bought on last Friday because I afraid that Dow will drop further today. Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that.

You are ...

Good to make some profit and run.
The stock I bought this morning and sold all before lunch, made 15% profit on this day trade today. At least cover some of my loss in this correction.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-10 21:43

Yes, I don't wish to expose myself to too high risk in this kind of market. Just watch, buy and sell to earn some to cover the loss in others. I am pleased also to know that you have sold your stocks today and made some profit.

Federal Reserve pour another 19 billions tonight to the market to ease the credit contraction. Perhaps Benerake need to jump out and say something to make the market feel more comfortable, instead of releasing more and more reserve to the market. Otherwise Dow at 13,000 could not hold as the atmosphere in the market is too bad, even if the US economy is still healthy.

Drop in the Europeran Markets were horrible before 9:00 tonight and Yen jump to 117.3X.

The market is still very bad so I don't advise to hold many stocks overnight but for long term investment one could start to collect some quality stocks (of course steps by steps, not in one goal).

For HK, 50-day line really can't hold so the next target is the 20-week average which is 21,295 and the 100-day line which is at 21,201. These two line in my point of view could provide stronger support at this stage. (941 finally touch the 50-day line today).

If Federal Reserve do nothing at this stage, I can't see a strong rebound will be incoming within these few days.

Take care, friends.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 20:24 發表

Good to make some profit and run.
The stock I bought this morning and sold all before lunch, made 15% profit on this day trade today. At least cover some of my loss in this correction.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-10 22:33

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 21:43
Yes, I don't wish to expose myself to too high risk in this kind of market. Just watch, buy and sell to earn some to cover the loss in others. I am pleased also to know that you have sold your stoc ...

Global market is still pretty fluctuated today; Yen is up to 117.74 now; We can see Central bank in europe and US are trying to save markets; I think the market will be steady soon otherwise, major crash can occurred; that all countries know and understand.  Trying to avoid it; and can see they react much fast in these 2 days compared to last 2 months.

In HK, this is a psycholgicial effect more than actual effect, and also an excuse to pull down the market and collect some quality stocks but at lower price.
We can see HSI easily test 100 day line next week.  As you have said, I also agreed, we should start to collect some quality stocks for long hold.

HSI will be very strong at 21000 level, so don't mind to buy some when HSI reachs below 21500 next monday or Tuesday.  Assume 20800(150 line) is the bottom line in this correction, below 21500 is not too bad to buy more and more, of course not buy all in once.

Good luck to all of us next week

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-10 22:44

Hahaha, you are right !! 150 day line is important as the drop in last Feb also drop to 150-day line and rebound. Another reference is the drop in June/July of 2006, at that time HSI break the 250-day line and rebound.

Federal Reserve and other central banks should take the remedial action immediately otherwise the whole economy will collapse. Federal Reserve perhaps might need to cut the rate if the market is really very weak.

21,000 is the starting point of the present ride. Previously that point is with very high resistance, but now serve as the supporting point. If drop to 21,000, the total drop is 2,500 points (around 10%), that would be enough I suppose.

Yes, collecting some good quality stocks (for me I will buy 1398).

Good luck and take care !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 22:33 發表

Global market is still pretty fluctuated today; Yen is up to 117.74 now; We can see Central bank in europe and US are trying to save markets; I think the market will be steady soon otherwise, ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 22:48 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-10 23:06

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 22:44
Hahaha, you are right !! 150 day line is important as the drop in last Feb also drop to 150-day line and rebound. Another reference is the drop in June/July of 2006, at that time HSI break the 250- ...

Totally right and agreed. Always same pt to you.
1398 is a good one.

I long hold on 2628, 941, 3993, 1800, 939, 2689
6~12 months : 753, 694, 1898
Risky: related call warrant (2628, 939)

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-10 23:12

Woh, your investment profolios are all good stocks !! You are really a professional investor.

I used to hold 388 (buy at around $58) as my long term investment but thrown already in last two months after the speedy ride.

Just wish to inform you that Federal Reserve has injected another 16 billions to the liquity to save the market, so Yen now get back to 117.9X.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 23:06 發表

Totally right and agreed. Always same pt to you.
1398 is a good one.

I long hold on 2628, 941, 3993, 1800, 939, 2689
6~12 months : 753, 694, 1898
Risky: related call warrant (2628, 939)

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-10 23:20

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 23:12
Woh, your investment profolios are all good stocks !! You are really a professional investor.

I used to hold 388 (buy at around $58) as my long term investment but thrown already in last two mon ...

Federal Reserve needed to pump in more money to save market is a must; no country can afford another big crash in the market, it takes several years to cover especially US economic is not that good.

388, I missed that before too. I already held 2823 before, bought at 90 bucks and sold at 130 4 months ago, and now hit 215!!!! I am not a professional investor, but got experience in the market before, paid so much school fee, and now need to get back for my retirement

Also check on 2899 and 552, both are very potential quality stocks.
2899 is more risky, my target is $9 and 552 will hit over $10 12 months time; waiting for 3G license confirme by central govt soon.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-11 20:51

Actually all of the stocks you are now holding are of high quality. It is really unexpected that 2823 could jump to $21X, but anyway it is very good to know that you buy it at a low price and sell it with a considerable profit.

388 is actually a very good quality stock but most of the people think that it is too expensive (both in terms of price and P/E). Anyway the trend of 388 is sometime unpredictable. I am also waiting now for a price that could attract me to buy it again.

Back to the discussion in the market, it is good to see that Dow recovered most of its loss in the beginning and closed with a loss of around 30 points. However, recently I observed that the big crocodiles will make some changes to Dow only after the close of the european market, so last night Dow can't help the european market to get back the significant loss.

However, there are still a lot of uncertainties and bad news in the market. It is now very difficult to predict the trend of the market, unless Ben Benanke jump out and give the market some hints that rate could possibly be cut in the near future.

Federal Reserve pumped so much money into the market in these few days, and this action could imply that the situation in the market is really worst. We need to be alert of this !! Subprime crisis was identified for the first time in last Februray and at that time the problem was confined to several subprime companies. Nonetheless, this time it is now posing substantial threat to the market's liquity and other investment banks. In my point of view, the sitation now is more worst than the previous one we have in Feb (At least at that time, Federal Reserve haven't pumped money into the maret to hold the liquity healthy).

We need to keep close monitoring to the market and trade with caution !

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 23:20 發表

Federal Reserve needed to pump in more money to save market is a must; no country can afford another big crash in the market, it takes several years to cover especially US economic is not tha ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-11 20:56 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-12 01:49

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-11 20:51
Actually all of the stocks you are now holding are of high quality. It is really unexpected that 2823 could jump to $21X, but anyway it is very good to know that you buy it at a low price and sell ...

Stock and market are always unpredictable.  2823 & 388 are over for us now.  We have another game on hand.

As per your view, some people feel it is good Federal Reserve pumped in more money into market to stablize it, but some think it is worst therefore, jumped in that much money, maybe getter worse.

It is tough to predict the market, but just follow the trend how market runs and always be at high alert ourselves at all time.

I will still do day trade for short run next week except monday, I have no time to watch the market.  For buying more quality stocks for long run, I will keep doing that if market getting much in a day, that is not bad for long run.

Besides, people around me keep talking about how bad the market will go down, almost everyone of them already sold or going to sell next monday.
It maybe a chance the market get steady for a while or rebound soon when most people look bad and lost confident on the market.

Think and start to buy some good stocks for 4th quarter rise.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-12 12:48

Yes, even if you have time on Monday, try to avoid day trade that day as we need to observe the performance of Dow and other european market first. As you said, the remedial action performed by the Federal Reserve might make the market even worst.

Haha, if your friends are experienced traders then you could listen to their advice to sell some of your stocks first. In my point of view, at the present time I will try to lose my weight in the stock market.

Friends around me also think that the market is very worst and another 1997 or 2000 disaster is incoming !! However, I just wish to tell you that they actually have very finite knowledge in stock investment. Some of them even ask me when is the trading time of the HK market !! MY GOD !!!

Therefore, in my point of view, HSI is still very healthy with a P/E of around 16. Our mastermind (China) will help (or they need our help for Shanghai and Shenzhen ??) to further develop the HK market. There is no major change in the economic indicators and factors in HK comparing to the past months (No, I am wrong, we have more positive news comparing to the past months -- QDII).

If everyone around you, especially those who are very little experiences, tell you that the market will collapse, it might be a good time for the experienced investor to buy some of the good quality stocks steps by steps.

Take care

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-12 01:49 發表

Stock and market are always unpredictable. 2823 & 388 are over for us now. We have another game on hand.

As per your view, some people feel it is good Federal Reserve pumped in more ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-12 12:50 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-12 15:32

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-12 12:48 發表
Yes, even if you have time on Monday, try to avoid day trade that day as we need to observe the performance of Dow and other european market first. ...

Market P/E is healthy but no the mentality. Sometimes, it is more psychological rather than REAL.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-12 21:01

Haha, yes ar !! the market is actually based on mentality and the atmosphere. However, sometimes of course we need to back to the basic. Such as some small stocks with several thousands P/E (such as 858), I will not buy that even the atomsphere is good at that time

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-12 15:32 發表

Market P/E is healthy but no the mentality. Sometimes, it is more psychological rather than REAL.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-13 00:17

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-12 21:01
Haha, yes ar !! the market is actually based on mentality and the atmosphere. However, sometimes of course we need to back to the basic. Such as some small stocks with several thousands P/E (such a ...

Yes, stock market always based on psychological effect and atmosphere more than actual factors to support.
Therefore, 3~4 line stocks ran crazy months ago with skyhigh PE.

Of course, when people around you to sell and ask you to sell, it is a beginning to buy some quality stocks for long time.

Some people have said HSI would drop to 20000, 19000 or even 16000.  But many of them without any supportive factors, just "HOPE".  When market at 23500, some of them said, I woudl buy at 22500, but did not, and looking for 22000 and so and so.  And really down to a reasonable level.  Woudl they really have gut to buy.

I would start to buy when reach my target price step by step.
eg: start to use 20% captial to buy stock when HSI reach 21500, another 30% at 21200, another 30% at 20500.
But I believe HSI would only down to 21000 only.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-13 11:03

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 00:17 發表
Yes, stock market always based on psychological effect and atmosphere more than actual factors to support. ...

Avoid sheep mentality but that can be very difficult.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-13 13:08

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-13 11:03

Avoid sheep mentality but that can be very difficult.

Yes, I agreed, the market is not easy. It takes time to watch and analysis

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-13 18:03

It seems that BOJ will probably not to raise the interest rate at its meeting this month. That would be very good !!

However, stepping into the european time zone, Yen go up from 118.1X to 117.89. However, the european markets are still rebounding and Dow Futures up around 70 points. Is there any trap out there ??

Below is the extract from bloombery.

"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth slowed more than economists forecast in the second quarter, making it less likely the central bank will raise interest rates next week after a global credit crunch."

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-13 18:09

"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank injected cash into the euro-area money market for a third trading day to avert a credit crunch.

The bank loaned 47.665 billion euros ($65 billion) to banks to support ``the normalization of conditions in the money market,'' the Frankfurt-based central bank said in a statement. The ECB ``notes that money market conditions are normalizing and that the supply of aggregate liquidity is ample.''"

Is the situation still bad to the level that ECB need to take the remedial action for the third day ?? The european market are now rebounding. Do the investors underestimate the severity of the credit crisis but ECB could predict what is going to happen??

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-13 18:11

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 18:03 發表
It seems that BOJ will probably not to raise the interest rate at its meeting this month. That would be very good !! However, stepping into the european time zone, Yen go up from 118.1X to 117.8 ...

JPY should start reverse at 115.0.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-13 21:21

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 18:09
"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank injected cash into the euro-area money market for a third trading day to avert a credit crunch.

The bank loaned 47.665 billion euros ($65 ...

I think Europe market is not problem on this impact, very minority.
I heard a news that Federal Reserve had review the report from most of the fund house in last weekend, and decided to take care of their mortgage & funding problem instead of just pump in more and more money to fund house.

I believe if Dow steady in next 2~3 days and no more mortgage bad news coming; the correction will be over. And the market will back and forth between couple hundred pts for while before rises again.

作者: nonhuman 時間: 2007-8-13 21:48

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-13 22:04

Yes, I agree. Just pumping money into the market will not help. The ECB should find out the problem and think of some ways to solve it. For US, if federal reserve could cut the rate, at least the submprime tension will be lessened.

Yes, Dow today perhaps is just a rebound, and the following days will be crucial for us to determine whether the correction is over. Hope that no more bad news about subprime from other investing bank will come out again. However, the problem is always there if that haven't been solved. (In Feb 2007 we have the subprime problem, but haven't solved it and the market's focus was then M&A, and now the problem appears again this month)

Actually today the economic data of Japan give us a likely scenario that BOJ will not raise interest this month. This is actually a very positive news. However, Yen haven't been off to 119.XX. During European trading time, it even jump to near 117.9X region. It is quite strange indeed !! Perhaps Yen will go up again !!

I remember that last month when BOJ declared that the interest rate will be unchanged, Yen stand at 120.XX and haven't dropped back to 123.XX. One week afterward, then Yen jump to 119 and then 118 !!!

Other currency just as Euro/US and Pound/US are still very weak. 10 year US bond yield is still at 4.8XX, with a price of near 100. We need to be alert of that.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 21:21 發表

I think Europe market is not problem on this impact, very minority.
I heard a news that Federal Reserve had review the report from most of the fund house in last weekend, and decided to ta ...

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-13 22:08

I agree with you prefectly !! Therefore, as I said before if those inexperienced investors or friends tell you to sell your stocks because economic crisis is coming, then we could start to collect some of the good quality stock.

Only if the investors forget about risk and say which is the next target of HSI, big drop will occur. The present wave of drop also start from the same date when the HSI break from its record high.

引用:

原帖由 nonhuman 於 2007-8-13 21:48 發表
Conspiracy: Every time there is financial Storm, Some good asset must be sold in undervalue price. Bankers can then "buy" the cheap asset. At the same time, rape the stock market. After f ...

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-13 22:21

50-day line today is at 22093. If Dow keep going up tonight, at least trading in the positive region, we might have chance to go back to 50-day line tomorrow. However, going back to 50-day line doesn't mean the correction is over.

Actually HSI going back to 50-day line might just filled the gap produced in last Friday, and then find the bottom again (100-day line at 21,230 ??). Indeed, HSI is still trade in the decending trend channel.

Only if HSI could break the resistance at 22,770 with a reasonable turnover, we could confirm that HSI escape from a crisis

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 22:26 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-13 22:47

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 22:04
Yes, I agree. Just pumping money into the market will not help. The ECB should find out the problem and think of some ways to solve it. For US, if federal reserve could cut the rate, at least the s ...

All the facts are being put on the table.
1. interest rate in Japan is cleared which is a good news, carry trade is coming less effect now
2. ECB is fully support Europe market, and won't see any problem
3. US govt is also fully support those investment banks to solve this problem
4. US has highly chance to cut interest rate in Sept
5. Blue chip earning report start this week and on
6. QDII capital coming very soon

Uncertain:
1. potential of more investment bank problem coming.

My conclusion today based on updated factors
If no more investment banks coming, or other unexpected major crisis, the market will be steady for consolidation in next 2 weeks. By the end of Aug, the market will start to rise.
HSI strengthen supportive level will be 21200

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-13 23:29

Excellent. Your interpretation and description is very good. I can't agree with you more

Yen now trade near 118.40, Good ! hope it could drop back above 119.

By the way, I know that your beloved 3993 will become the chips under HKCEI next month. Good !! My 998 (actually it is a very bad stock with no good performance) will also become one of the members too !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 22:47 發表

All the facts are being put on the table.
1. interest rate in Japan is cleared which is a good news, carry trade is coming less effect now
2. ECB is fully support Europe market, and won't s ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 23:33 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-13 23:57

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 23:29
Excellent. Your interpretation and description is very good. I can't agree with you more

Yen now trade near 118.40, Good ! hope it could drop back above 119.

By the way, I know that yo ...

For both 3993 & 998 become HKCEI next month, that is good, at least can stimulate the stocks for while.
For bank stock, I don't know why you picked 998, but some are doing better now and future as well. Such as 939 and 1398; 3328 also good if HSBC is okay for settle for mortgage crisis since both stocks are pretty behind the market rise recently.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-14 00:17

At the very beginning of the IPO of 998, I have lots of expectation of this stock - Small commercial bank, fast growth etc. However, finally i discover that the market look down upon on 998 because of its high P/E (really ??) or other reasons. Anyway, I was trapped now by 998 but luckily the money trapped in it is not very much.

I could still wait and see more. It is because all the bank will have a tax relief from 33% to 25% because of the tax reformation (i don't know whether other investors remember this >??)

I love 1398 very much, and will consider to buy that after I escape from 998 (I don't wish to have overlap in my investment portifolios)

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 23:57 發表

For both 3993 & 998 become HKCEI next month, that is good, at least can stimulate the stocks for while.
For bank stock, I don't know why you picked 998, but some are doing better now a ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-14 00:19 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-14 00:56

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-14 00:17
At the very beginning of the IPO of 998, I have lots of expectation of this stock - Small commercial bank, fast growth etc. However, finally i discover that the market look down upon on 998 because ...

I know what you meant. It is okay with small amount of investment on 998, take your time and wait for it rises with whole bank sector later.

In the investment, always try to hold with the topest one in the sector, it is always the best choice, cann't really go wrong.

Dow still up 50 pts, not bad at all, soon long as it stops going down

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-14 23:50

Yes, i really need to take my time on 998.

Yes, I recently understand the reason of buying those stocks who are the leaders in that industries. Such as buying the property related stock in China, I will choose 688.

For the market, it is still unstable. Better than expected PPI might disappoint the market. However, core PPI is okay. Let's wait for the result of CPI.

Dow was weighted by Wal Mart and Home Depot tonight because of disappointing outlook.

For HK, it is a very boring market (actually all the markets in the world is bored today except China). I still take my previous analysis for reference at the moment.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-14 00:56 發表

I know what you meant. It is okay with small amount of investment on 998, take your time and wait for it rises with whole bank sector later.

In the investment, always try to hold with the ...

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 01:19

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-14 23:50
Yes, i really need to take my time on 998.

Yes, I recently understand the reason of buying those stocks who are the leaders in that industries. Such as buying the property related stock in China ...

I see, all China stocks will be okay if they are doing their business properly, only timing.
HK stock today is really boring,

US stock is down 126 pts now, and HK stock expected to drop tomorrow. It depends on how deep it will go; and we can have better picture for the direction later.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-15 11:46

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-15 01:19 發表
I see, all China stocks will be okay if they are doing their business properly, only timing.
HK stock today is really boring,
US stock is down 126 pts now, and HK stock expecte ...

Now dropped over 500 points and moving towards 21,000.

作者: 小小力 時間: 2007-8-15 12:00

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-15 11:46 發表

Now dropped over 500 points and moving towards 21,000.

Now dropped over 600 pts ...very close to 21000 lar...

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 12:16

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 11:46

Now dropped over 500 points and moving towards 21,000.

Yes, moving to 21200, and see whether HSI can stay above on it.

作者: 小小力 時間: 2007-8-15 12:25

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-15 12:16 發表

Yes, moving to 21200, and see whether HSI can stay above on it.

I think today can stay over 21200,..but this week...I doubt.,,,!!

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 12:28

引用:

Originally posted by 小小力 at 2007-8-15 12:25

I think today can stay over 21200,..but this week...I doubt.,,,!!

Agreed

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-15 12:35

引用:

原帖由 小小力 於 2007-8-15 12:00 發表
Now dropped over 600 pts ...very close to 21000 lar...

Will reach this week.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 12:37

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 12:35

Will reach this week.

If drop down 21200 then will go to 20800 technical level

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-15 12:57

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-15 12:37 發表
If drop down 21200 then will go to 20800 technical level

Can move quickly to 21,000.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 13:59

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 12:57

Can move quickly to 21,000.

Probably, depend on how many more investment bank got problem

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-15 14:17

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-15 13:59 發表
Probably, depend on how many more investment bank got problem

No, the strong JPY & USD are pulling down the market and gold price as well.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 14:27

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 14:17

No, the strong JPY & USD are pulling down the market and gold price as well.

Yes, strong JPY, 116.xx

作者: vivify839 時間: 2007-8-15 18:45 標題: Thank you

Very interesting!

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-15 19:08

Dow was down 200 points yesterday, leading to another big drops in the Asian market. The situation is quite worst here today in Asia, Jakarta Composite was down 6.4%, Straits Times 3.35%, Taiwan 3.57%. Yen is very strong and go to 116.69 now. Let see how is the CPI tonight.

HSI will soon drop to the support at 100-day line (21,281). Luckily the turnover today is not very big. It really depends on whether Dow could hold 13,000 tonight with a resonable CPI to determine the performance of HSI tomorrow. FTSE, CAC and DAX drop more than 1% now.

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-15 19:21

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-15 19:08
Dow was down 200 points yesterday, leading to another big drops in the Asian market. The situation is quite worst here today in Asia, Jakarta Composite was down 6.4%, Straits Times 3.35%, Taiwan 3. ...

HSI really depends on how many more bad news coming from around the world.
21200 could be supportive line, but doesn't seem strong now, could down to 20800 soon. Since JPY getting strong, and more bad news coming out in global!!!

I spent 10% of my capital to buy some stocks today, but not much.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-15 23:29

Haha, you need to be careful ar, 3a4b5c6c, the market is still not stable.

Yes, strong Yen will weight the market. However, very luckily that Dow has reached 13,000 and there should be some support there. I share with you some of my observation before to support my thinking.

I remember when Dow was still at around 11,200 (1.5 or 2 years ago ??) and encounter strong resistance. I dropped very quickly and finally find the bottom at 10,000, and rebound very quick and back to 11,000.

Another example is that as long as I remember when Dow 12,8XX in last Feburary, it encounter strong resistance there and drop very quickly and touch 12,000. Finally it found support at 12,000 and rebound very quickly to 13,7XX.

Therefore, my thinking is that don't underestimate the support at 13,000. It might provide Dow some support. (this could not be applied in HK market)

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-15 19:21 發表

HSI really depends on how many more bad news coming from around the world.
21200 could be supportive line, but doesn't seem strong now, could down to 20800 soon. Since JPY getting strong, ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-15 23:31 編輯 ]

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-16 00:29

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-15 23:29
Haha, you need to be careful ar, 3a4b5c6c, the market is still not stable.

Yes, strong Yen will weight the market. However, very luckily that Dow has reached 13,000 and there should be some supp ...

Yes, that's right, market is not stable yet.  HK has been impacted by global market always.

Why I started to buy stocks now even the market is still unstable
I assumed first supportive line at 21500, then 21200, 20800 and 20300.  Honesty, nobody knows when the bottom line would be, could be anyone of these.
It is tough to guess, and no guarantee.
So, based on my own view, I decided to use a little money to buy some stock now, if going downward, then can buy more and more.  At least, I did not buy anything for long hold from 23500 till now.  The worst may be close to 20000 level.
I don't think I can know where the bottom line is,  and buy all stocks at that level. I will save for 50% capital to buy at around 20300 if it reachs.  I do on risky way

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-16 09:03

Good strategy to follow !! You must be a wise investor !!

Dow break the support at 13,000. We will have trobule again today !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-16 00:29 發表

Yes, that's right, market is not stable yet. HK has been impacted by global market always.

Why I started to buy stocks now even the market is still unstable
I assumed first supportive li ...

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-8-16 11:18

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-16 09:03 發表
Good strategy to follow !! You must be a wise investor !!
Dow break the support at 13,000. We will have trobule again today !!

I have always maintained 20,000 as a target. Should be reached soon.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-16 21:15

The housing data released tonight suggested that the housing market is deteroriating. However, luckily Federal Reserve has pumped in 5 billion dollars tonight and make the Dow Future recovered from its drop of 160 points in the early session. Wiill Federal Reserve pump in more money after the openning bell ??

Even if all the central banks pumped in so many money into the market before, the Yen still go up to a very high level. At around 7 pm tonight, it even reaches 113.60, so horrible !!!

Another bad news tonight is that St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said that the recent market correction had not undermined the economy and he saw no need for a immediate rate cut. Oh, my god !!

Hong Kong market is too bad today, breaking the 100 and 150 day-line on the same day !! The only support is now at the bull and the bear 250 day-line which is now at 19,821, only around 800 points away from the present position. If Dow still have a big drop tonight, we might reach tomorrow !!

. Please note that we haven't touched this line since June 2006.

For the time being, friends should be alert and trade with caution.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-16 21:16 編輯 ]

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-16 21:39

Federal Reserve add in 12 Billions dollars in the market again after the openning bell. Dow only drop around 50 points now. Yen is at 114.70

作者: 小小力 時間: 2007-8-16 23:42

引用:

原帖由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-16 21:39 發表
Federal Reserve add in 12 Billions dollars in the market again after the openning bell. Dow only drop around 50 points now. Yen is at 114.70

Dow now drop 186 pts wor...

作者: 3a4b5c6c 時間: 2007-8-17 01:31

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-16 21:15
The housing data released tonight suggested that the housing market is deteroriating. However, luckily Federal Reserve has pumped in 5 billion dollars tonight and make the Dow Future recovered from ...

Bad bad days this week, I did not buy at 21200 and 21000 since market dropped fast and deep. I bought some at 20500 level. Dow is dropping 260 pts tonight

At this point, HSI is going to reach 20000 or even 250 line 19800, maybe tomorrow or next monday.
I think 20000 is a good level to buy. So many good quality stocks now, choose some for yourself, it will boost up big % by the end of 2007

HSI can not go down too much now. PE is less than 14 now. Can not afford to drop 6~700 pts each day, and already corrected 2800 pts from peak.

I will away for couple days, hopefully, I can connect internet for stock watch and this forum.

作者: cherryjasonchan 時間: 2007-8-17 08:50

Yes, I agree. It should have less room for further drop, but 250-day line still serve as a support.

Too horrible to hear that Yen has reached 112.01 yesterday night !! Now at 113.81, Japanese people will start to throw Yen to the market and buy the foreign currency if Yen goes up further, so this could help to ease the upward trend of Yen.

Even if Dow dramaticially recovered almost all its lose last night, Nikkel still fell today, perhaps because of the surge of Yen. Other Asian Market has also recorded a drop at the moment.

Caution in Trading, friends.

By the way, 3a4b5c6c, take care and have a nice trip !!!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-17 01:31 發表

Bad bad days this week, I did not buy at 21200 and 21000 since market dropped fast and deep. I bought some at 20500 level. Dow is dropping 260 pts tonight

At this point, HSI is going t ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-17 09:20 編輯 ]

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