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Originally posted by leoxi at 2007-8-6 22:38
Let's hope the rebound will take place tomorrow.

Yes,

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-6 23:16
I have observed Dow for 1.5 hours tonight, and noticed that there were still some pressure/little buying force at the top, but it is very good that when Dow touch the negative region, it will rebou ...

Yes, it is.  I hope so too.  Dow needs time to recover its previous loss. Home Mortgage problem is not that big to affect whole US.  In Reuter said, there are less 5% owners who are not able continously to make their payment and unemplyment rate is low.  Therefore, market is over reacted and exaggerated the real situation.

So, it is an excuse for fund houses to crash the market easily.  Especially in HK, only HSBC has done 2nd home mortgage in US and its earning report was great, better than expectation.
Bank of China claimed, only lost several millions US dollars that is much much smaller than Chinese banker who had stolen money from bank of China. Maybe US problem only 0.001% compared to herself in China.

HK market still looking good, if HK market not dropped, how can those fund houses to buy more cheap stocks when QDII money coming to HK soon.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 08:25
Yes, I agree. Sub-prime is actually not a very very big issue that could make the whole US economy to the downside, as mentioned in the last Feb, but of course if this issue can't be tackled in a s ...

Lacking of power for rebound this morning so far, only 200 pts, under our expectation.  Hopefully, getting up and up today.

People are looking for steady market after dropped over 500 pts in a days for couple times within 2 weeks.  Who really want to buy more shares in this downside market.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 14:23
HSI still haven't fully recovered from a flu. Taiwan drop, Nikkel nearly level. I suppose HSI will go up again in the afternoon trading session.

I hope so, but atmosphere is not that good.
Always wish for the best and prepare for worst

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 15:10

The WORST is yet to come!

I think so, based on past experience, the market would big drop 2~3 days in a role.  When everybody lost confident, and sold most or all their stocks on hand, then the all stocks and market will rise dramatically.  Since big guys collected most cheap stocks from us

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 15:35

BINGO. You know the rules very well!

After paying so much school fee before, should learn something from there

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 16:06

Hope you kept your cool. I lost big on some "9th rate companies" but easy come easy go!

Pretty bored these days when looking at the market keep gonig downside everyday; all I have to do, save cash at this stage, don't buy anything, just waiting and be patient until finally crash; then buy all stocks and call warrants as many as I can to recover my loss.

I also lost badly on call warrants too

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 16:36

Why don't you PUT instead?

I lost 30% on thursday 2 weeks ago when the market turned to downward from upward in the morning, and I just waited for another day, but friday, I lost another 50% in a day.  So, nothing I can do since paper value lost 70%.  Therefore, I just hold it and wait till the end of correction, then mass buy back more shares and call warrant for recovery.

The market may stop downside at 21500, or maybe 21000, or even 20000.  So, I rather to hold it til end of this month in my situation

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 17:05

My friends have cut loss on HSI Index futures. All were killed off by the bear.

Agreed and I got that experience before; especially with HSI future, too rough and could loss huge money on it.
I only use my cash account to do trade, no margin at all.  All I lost, is all the cash I have on hand.  Different from HSI future.  

I owed so much much money when I cut off at HSI future in 2003; took me 4 yrs to pay back.  Big lesson

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-7 17:19

Yes, so is lesson that easy money cannot be made by hardworking people? Large profits are for the big players?

Always truth

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-7 22:11
It is really out of our expectation that HSI still need to drop even if Dow rise more than 280 points which is the highest gain since 2003. Please also note that there is a "Massacre" in  ...

Thanks for your information.
During correction at this time, no matter how good Dow doing unless Dow up roll up big 2 days in a road; otherwise, HK market still going downward.

US up, then HK opened a bit high, but not much, then going down to even or even negative at closing.
US down, then HK down much much faster and deeper.
The situation almost happens everytime, is a must, same trend, think about how was HK market in correction before.

I don't think this week is good at all, be patient

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 08:34
Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !

Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend  ...

Yes, it is a rebound this morning.
What I meant recently, if Dow getting downward and HK would follow down trend and even deeper.  This is always the trend during correction in HK.

Correction is not last for a day or 2, it is lasting for couple weeks normally.  Therefore, rebound is still exist during correction, but not much power on it.  You can look how the market is doing these 2 weeks.

Of course, I wish the correction is over, then whole market rises again, and we all make $$

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 12:17
A good and strong rebound today, that's excellent ! Other Asian market also have a good U turn today.

As I could observe that the uptrend of HSI is leaded by 941 and 5, I do think the rise to ...

Yes, market looks good today, I hope both 941 & 5 can lead market all the way up and the correction is over.  But we still have to be caution as well; better to wait for see for 2 more days.

Since it still might be a trapped to us, people got back confidenet and started to buy more and more shares then big drop.  This period of time, better to play more safe, I don't mind to buy spend small money to buy some potential stocks, but not big money at this moment.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 22:50
We really have a very good day this afternoon ! Tonight, Dow is up 80 points, it seems that Dow continue to rebound after its previous 280 points rise on Monday.

For HSI, even if the turnover to ...

Totally correct, I am also thinking of the same way.
From past experience, big guy will push up HSI close to 23000, then pull down to 22000.  Back and forth for  couple times, but the gap will be smaller and smaller everytime.  For 1000 pts reduce to 300 pts.
It happens almost everytime(90%) times.  This is their technique to do it.

At the final stage, when everybody fully confident and used up all purchasing power, then big guy will pull down the market to 21000 if any global news in negative at the same time when HSI down to 22000.

I will sell most or all stocks when HSI reach 23000, and wait for it drop back to 22000 and buy back all.  The back and forth trend will last for 3~4 times easily.  But be more caution when it hit the third times 22000.  Since more and more times to hit 22000 and get rebound, then all people will be crazy to buy and buy all shares without alert.  Then got trap.  This will happen if big guy wants to pull market down, it can last for 2 months, just like in March this year.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 23:18
3a4b5c6c, you are also an experienced investor !! You are right.

For me to have an example of the pattern, just imagine a ball falling from a high position, it will have a very steep fall and th ...

Exactly what we supposed to do during this pattern if I guessed it right.  Since big guys do this everytime.  

Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 or $10000, reach your target price and can; nothing wrong.  As long as you feel comfort and satisfy.

I have been trading stocks for long time, won and lost a lot of money from US and HK market before, is getting better now after paying so much school fee, should be smarter than before.  but still learning everytime when I did not sell my stocks on hand before correction.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-8 23:52
You are exactly right !! When I invested in every stock, I always have a target price in mind, the price that could make you feel happy, haha (sometime it is really $1000 or $10,000) !!

However, ...

Yes, should hold some potential blue chips for long run, it will be big winner.
I am holding some good blue chip and potential stocks such as 941, 2628, 3993, 1800, 939, 5 yrs later, its would be turned out couple times from now for some of these stocks.  I hold some of it from 2 yrs ago.
Another good stocks to hold for 1 yr from now such as 753, 552, 2899, 939, 1898, turn out will be good too

That is very truth, it is tough to make money during correction, no matter you made 1000 or 10000, always be caution at all time especially on upside, people will be less and less caution, always get a big trap when market turns around.

For US market, I did not trade anymore, I did trade it back to 1996~1999 when I was in north america, I traded most stocks in Nasdaq, made big and loss big there too when Nasdaq dropped couple thousand pt back to 1500 pts, then I quited it for while.  
Till 2000, I opened US account at Charles Schwab in HK, and started to trade again.  But you have to watch the market all night, make you so tired.  

But the most important thing is, US stock can be up and down so fast and so big. Blue chip can drop 20% or more if they have bad news come.  Even good earning report, but fair or negative comment for future, the stock can be unbelievable dropped.  I had IBM before, earning report beat the street, but they announced slow down next quarter, then the price dropped by 20%, from $120 to 100/share in a minute. Many big stocks dropped from 150 to $2 in short period of time before.

It is not easy to trade in these yrs since US market always support by high tech and bank stocks. And high tech stocks can not go back to the record high from yrs ago.

I personally would say, HK and China market are very good in next couple yrs, but not US.  
If you want to trade US stock, you are better to open US account.  Can choose Charles Schwab, it is a big broker firm, and get some information from them first.
For specific stock, I can advise you even I did not trade there for long time.

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-9 21:14

One should based sell or buy decisions on percentages, not absolute $ targets.

It depends on the real situation. If market doing down, no matter how much money or % you made or lost.  Have to sell your stocks immediately.

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Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-9 22:02

This is always good in theory but hard to do in reality. Not many small players know how and when to cut loss.

Yes, I agreed, I fell in traps so many times before, and learnt a lot of lessons.  Now getting much better and better, not fall to trap often, even fall , only small %, it is okay

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-9 22:25
3a4b5c6c, you are really a verteran investor. I admire you so much because of your experience in the US market. By the way, thanks for your kindest help in offering me advice on the US individual s ...

Thanks for your comment, I am appreicated to hear that since I am not an expert on market, but thanks anyway.  Surely you may ask for specific US stock since I do know some and also many of my friends are doing trade at US market in north america today.

It is better to concentrate in HK market since we are here.
You information and analysis are so good, calm and clear.  You know what you are doing.

100% agreed your opinion.  
Initially, I expected HSI would rebound to 22900 and drop back for 1000 pts.  And HSI turned around at 22797 today, I think HSI will test 50 day line tomorrow, and have a high % to break through down to 21800~21600 in next 2~3 trading days if US market still have bad news coming.
Close to 21800, I think I will buy some stocks for rebound, if going down deeper to 21600, then buy more, and big rebound will be there.  This kind of trend will last for 3~5 times during correction as I had mentioned before.  Take these back and forth to make some money.  always within 1000 pts, the gap getting narrow and narrow each time till 300 pts, then market will rise again.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 00:14
Thank you very much for your good comments on me, 3a4b5c6c !! I am still a little kid in the market. Let's share with other friends here more.

I love your clarification of "drop narrowing&q ...

That truth QDII is coming soon, will lead the market up.

Dow dropped 387 pts last night, and caused HK over 700 pts.  I bought some shares this morning

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 16:10
I sell Espirt this morning at 104.8 (at 9:50) which I bought on last Friday because I afraid that Dow will drop further today. Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that.

You are ...

Good to make some profit and run.
The stock I bought this morning and sold all before lunch, made 15% profit on this day trade today.  At least cover some of my loss in this correction.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 21:43
Yes, I don't wish to expose myself to too high risk in this kind of market. Just watch, buy and sell to earn some to cover the loss in others. I am pleased also to know that you have sold your stoc ...

Global market is still pretty fluctuated today; Yen is up to 117.74 now; We can see Central bank in europe and US are trying to save markets; I think the market will be steady soon otherwise, major crash can occurred; that all countries know and understand.  Trying to avoid it; and can see they react much fast in these 2 days compared to last 2 months.

In HK, this is a psycholgicial effect more than actual effect, and also an excuse to pull down the market and collect some quality stocks but at lower price.
We can see HSI easily test 100 day line next week.  As you have said, I also agreed, we should start to collect some quality stocks for long hold.  

HSI will be very strong at 21000 level, so don't mind to buy some when HSI reachs below 21500 next monday or Tuesday.  Assume 20800(150 line) is the bottom line in this correction, below 21500 is not too bad to buy more and more, of course not buy all in once.

Good luck to all of us next week

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 22:44
Hahaha, you are right !! 150 day line is important as the drop in last Feb also drop to 150-day line and rebound. Another reference is the drop in June/July of 2006, at that time HSI break the 250- ...

Totally right and agreed.  Always same pt to you.
1398 is a good one.

I long hold on 2628, 941, 3993, 1800, 939, 2689
6~12 months : 753, 694, 1898
Risky: related call warrant (2628, 939)

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-10 23:12
Woh, your investment profolios are all good stocks !! You are really a professional investor.

I used to hold 388 (buy at around $58) as my long term investment but thrown already in last two mon ...

Federal Reserve needed to pump in more money to save market is a must; no country can afford another big crash in the market, it takes several years to cover especially US economic is not that good.

388, I missed that before too.  I already held 2823 before, bought at 90 bucks and sold at 130 4 months ago, and now hit 215!!!!  I am not a professional investor, but got experience in the market before, paid so much school fee, and now need to get back for my retirement

Also check on 2899 and 552, both are very potential quality stocks.
2899 is more risky, my target is $9 and 552 will hit over $10 12 months time; waiting for 3G license confirme by central govt soon.

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Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-11 20:51
Actually all of the stocks you are now holding are of high quality. It is really unexpected that 2823 could jump to $21X, but anyway it is very good to know that you buy it at a low price and sell  ...

Stock and market are always unpredictable.  2823 & 388 are over for us now.  We have another game on hand.

As per your view, some people feel it is good Federal Reserve pumped in more money into market to stablize it, but some think it is worst therefore, jumped in that much money, maybe getter worse.

It is tough to predict the market, but just follow the trend how market runs and always be at high alert ourselves at all time.  

I will still do day trade for short run next week except monday, I have no time to watch the market.  For buying more quality stocks for long run, I will keep doing that if market getting much in a day, that is not bad for long run.

Besides, people around me keep talking about how bad the market will go down, almost everyone of them already sold or going to sell next monday.
It maybe a chance the market get steady for a while or rebound soon when most people look bad and lost confident on the market.  

Think and start to buy some good stocks for 4th quarter rise.