Nobody really know indeed.. there are too much easy money flowing into the market...
I think it could happen when the real news and real size of the subprime mortgage/housing bubble problem is finally being realised by people, and its implication for recession and even financial meltdown and global financial instability... when the Fed and bankers can no longer hide and manipulate the news and statistics...
in the coming six months.. hundreds of billion of CDO will get reset.. and not to mention the collapsing ABCP market... in this age of financial alchemy.. confidence and faith are the pillar that keep the money games working, once they are gone... expect financial turmoil of tsunami level or higher