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標題: The recent bottom might have been seen already... [打印本頁]

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-11-24 15:17 標題: The recent bottom might have been seen already...

My expected worst scenario from 319xx is dropping to 25500,,, last Thursday once dropped below 26000,,, and if next week could stand above 27000 in the first 3 days,,,,

This correction is likely to be OVER with (+6000 point or +18% from top)...

Avoiding shorting and putting now

OVER

[ 本帖最後由小花至愛於 2007-11-25 03:20 編輯 ]

作者: vodkaboy 時間: 2007-11-24 17:36

so should find some cheap cheap stock to buy now...? what u recommand?

作者: potatogundam 時間: 2007-11-24 18:18

期指結算, 淡友不會放過最後機會

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-11-25 11:42

引用:

原帖由 vodkaboy 於 2007-11-24 09:36 發表
so should find some cheap cheap stock to buy now...? what u recommand?

HSBC, 3988, 386, 506, 606, 270,,,, etc....

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-11-27 10:05

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-11-25 11:42 發表
HSBC, 3988, 386, 506, 606, 270,,,, etc....

My no. 1 pick is #386!

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2007-11-27 16:35

我都有 #3988, 但同出面 D 人咁講，諗緊使唔便換馬

作者: firework 時間: 2007-11-27 18:24

IT seems you are right

作者: kenny1234 時間: 2007-11-27 22:55

引用:

原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-11-27 16:35 發表
我都有 #3988, 但同出面 D 人咁講，諗緊使唔便換馬

我睇你都係換馬好！
換939或1398都好啦！

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-11-29 10:38

引用:

原帖由 kenny1234 於 2007-11-27 22:55 發表
我睇你都係換馬好！
換939或1398都好啦！

Or even #3328.

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-11-29 11:22

I feel that HSI and CEI reaching their shot-mid term top at 28500 and 17000 now...
what do you guys think ?

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2007-11-29 11:43

引用:

原帖由 kenny1234 於 2007-11-27 14:55 發表

我睇你都係換馬好！
換939或1398都好啦！

#939 都俾人沽

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-11-29 11:44

引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-11-29 11:22 發表
I feel that HSI and CEI reaching their shot-mid term top at 28500 and 17000 now...
what do you guys think ?

Down to @25500. Well, I just bought #6313.

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-11-29 11:48

Very aggressive~~~!!!

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2007-11-29 12:21

As noted, most people nowadays tend to trade warrants on a daily basis.

If so, there is no really meaning if HSI stops at this point and goes all the way down to 25500, or retreats for a short while and goes up again to a new high.

As long as the HSI retreats from the point you put, you will sell the put right away , which I believe, and cash in the profit.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-11-29 11:44 AM 發表

Down to @25500. Well, I just bought #6313.

[ 本帖最後由 eatallcheesecak 於 2007-11-29 12:33 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-11-29 12:30

引用:

原帖由 eatallcheesecak 於 2007-11-29 12:21 發表
As noted, most people nowadays tend to trade warrants on a daily basis.
If so, there is no really meaning if HSI stops at this point and goes all the way down to 25500, or retreats and goes up ...

No, I can wait.

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2007-11-29 12:35

Highly risk awaiting.

You are not alone on the waiting (not specific call or put, I am not too optim or pessm), ME too.

[ 本帖最後由 eatallcheesecak 於 2007-11-29 12:43 編輯 ]

作者: fatcheong 時間: 2007-11-29 21:33

I think the adjustment is not enough
a deeper adjustment should be come

作者: ces 時間: 2007-12-1 14:43

a common psychological weakness for all investors, including myself, is to look further down when the market is going down. And to look high when the market is going up.

Therefore most of us tend to high chase or low put

Then we becomes a crab

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-12-1 21:31

The right thing to do at the time of this posting (when HSI was around 27000) is to buy and hold preferred stocks and let the profit run,,, buying bull contract or index call another right strategy,,,

But holding or adding put and waiting for further correction are both unrealistic and asking for trouble...

OVER

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-12-2 14:33

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-12-1 21:31 發表
The right thing to do at the time of this posting (when HSI was around 27000) is to buy and hold preferred stocks and let the profit run,,, buying bull contract or index call another right strategy ...

You are forever optimistic!

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-12-3 08:33

So... What do you think Pen ? Any changes ?

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-12-3 09:26

引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-3 08:33 發表
So... What do you think Pen ? Any changes ?

I like to wait for adjustment till at least @26000. It seems this week will be strong.

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-12-3 09:46

kospi, nky, china all open lower
and USD rebound maybe over already...

作者: potatogundam 時間: 2007-12-3 10:23

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-3 09:26 發表

I like to wait for adjustment till at least @26000. It seems this week will be strong.

Really, any particular reasons

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-12-3 16:27

引用:

原帖由 potatogundam 於 2007-12-3 10:23 發表
Really, any particular reasons

If more sub-prime, gold fall, oil up, JPY up, then, we may see another round of adjustment (downwards).

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-12-3 16:34

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-12-1 21:31 發表
The right thing to do at the time of this posting (when HSI was around 27000) is to buy and hold preferred stocks and let the profit run,,, buying bull contract or index call another right strategy ...

with all fundamental factors i listed many times before, plus low
recent turnovers...
I think 30K pts (HSI) and 20K pts (CEI) is more unrealistic...
cannot see really good reasons to hold long positions...

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-12-5 12:33

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-2 06:33 發表

You are forever optimistic!

I made this post not because of optimism, but because there are signals indicating the correction is over,,,

Target around CNY would be +33000, let wait and see

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-12-5 22:32

【18:17】2007年12月05日
【on.cc專訊】中國經濟工作會議今日結束，會議上放棄穩建貨幣政策，明年將實行從緊的貨幣政策，繼續加強改善宏觀調控；同時，綜合運用多種貨幣政策工具，採取有力措施，加強流動性，進一步完善人民幣匯率形成機制，亦要改善內需及國際收支平衡狀況，促進經濟發展。另外，會議又指出，中國應預防經濟增長過熱及通脹惡化。

wonder how the mkt wiill react tomorrow...

作者: hardcat 時間: 2007-12-6 00:21

引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-5 22:32 發表
【18:17】2007年12月05日
【on.cc專訊】中國經濟工作會議今日結束，會議上放棄穩建貨幣政策，明年將實行從緊的貨幣政策，繼續加強改善宏觀調控；同時，綜合運用多種貨幣政策工具，採取有力措施，加強流動性，進 ...

This one is US news though...
As usual, The Fed cook up some statistics to prop up the market .. the worker productivity advanced by an annual rate of 6.3%... and its GDP was calculated using the inflation rate of 0.8% (iirc)... when everywhere else experiencing notable inflation, including china... you have to question why most analysts still fall for this trick... actually most stock markets go up on seeing this 'good' data

All these lies are setting up excuses for more rate cuts, and to prop up the stock market on the brink of major correction or collapse...

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-12-6 08:53

引用:

原帖由 Jackel 於 2007-12-5 22:32 發表
【18:17】2007年12月05日進 ...

UP, of course!

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2007-12-6 09:41

No matter what the HSI finally ends up at the year ended, the HSI went from under 26,000 to 29887 at this moment, you and the bullish-ist sure have the win.

Every day is a new day. Now, we have to predict what will be next from now (not dragging by the previous wrong prediction)?

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-12-1 09:31 PM 發表
The right thing to do at the time of this posting (when HSI was around 27000) is to buy and hold preferred stocks and let the profit run,,, buying bull contract or index call another right strategy ...

[ 本帖最後由 eatallcheesecak 於 2007-12-6 10:45 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-12-6 21:53

引用:

原帖由 eatallcheesecak 於 2007-12-6 09:41 發表
No matter what the HSI finally ends up at the year ended, the HSI went from under 26,000 to 29887 at this moment

I am still of the view that HSI can reach 26000 in Q1 2008 as PRC exercises more control measures.

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2007-12-7 01:11

I wont be surprised that HSI will again hit 26000 or 32000 in the first quarter of 2008 or earlier, as 3000 to 4000 points rised or dropped in a very short time is not rare now.

[ 本帖最後由 eatallcheesecak 於 2007-12-7 01:24 編輯 ]

作者: Jackel 時間: 2007-12-7 08:04

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-12-6 21:53 發表

I am still of the view that HSI can reach 26000 in Q1 2008 as PRC exercises more control measures.

CEI would correct more...

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