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標題: 短期見21000! [打印本頁]

作者: andrewming 時間: 2008-1-19 01:57 標題: 短期見21000!

個人認為次按風暴會大鑊過97...
追Put 1714

現0.163, 目標0.32

作者: ces 時間: 2008-1-19 15:23

but short term HSI likely stand stable
so I tend not to put until end of January

作者: andrewming 時間: 2008-1-19 15:37

我估過年前約24000左右，0.22出,回彈25000左右再追put

作者: BBQ_GUTS 時間: 2008-1-19 15:51

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-19 15:23 發表
but short term HSI likely stand stable
so I tend not to put until end of January

i think so ~

but after hsbc release year end report HSI may be drop to 20000 - 22000

作者: Free2Go 時間: 2008-1-19 16:49

雖然我唔知你點計出黎.....但係有無咁差呀.......

作者: ces 時間: 2008-1-19 17:54

引用:

原帖由 BBQ_GUTS 於 2008-1-19 15:51 發表

i think so ~

but after hsbc release year end report HSI may be drop to 20000 - 22000

because market in general expects a very poor report
and this has been reflected in HSBC's stock price
so unless the report is extremely poor
I don't think its price will be adversely affected by the report

reverse thinking
if is is just a normal bad report
stock price may rebound

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-1-20 12:56

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-19 17:54 發表
because market in general expects a very poor report
and this has been reflected in HSBC's stock price..

It will reach $105 or lower.

作者: hardcat 時間: 2008-1-21 11:29

and as things stand now, it is not just the subprime anymore, subprime is more like the appetizer for the bigger crisis to come, one of them is the developing CDS crisis...

most bond insurers are extremely leveraged, e.g. ACA has capital of 425M insuring 69B of corporate and mortgage debt... many of those corporate junk bond, CDO, SIV risk are being insured this way... if the insurers default, then the counterparties will have to carry the loss (i.e. mostly wall street firms and bankers)...

we now have 45 Trillion of CDS outstanding, and bond insurers and insurances getting downgraded lately... the CDS loss could easily be hundreds of billions...

i do believe so far as the US is concerned, there will at least be a recession/depression first (could be brief depending on the printing machine), then followed by (hyper)inflation... inflating away the debts is the only way they can pay up the debt... the continuing USD debasement in future is a foregone conclusion imo, this will continue until its eventual destruction, to be replaced by a new currency 'amero' for North American Union (US+Canada+mexico) ... the US is essentially bankrupted, the way the financial system work wholly depend on the faith and credit people have on the US... if that faith weaken or shaken, this will be a threat to the whole world's financial system...

i dont know how much or how fast the magnitude of its impact will have on hk/china or asia.. it could take more time for the full effect to play out both in the US and worldwide...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-1-21 17:16 編輯 ]

作者: ti1234 時間: 2008-1-21 11:44

21000. Is is true??

作者: edison1610 時間: 2008-1-21 14:22

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: andrewming 時間: 2008-1-21 14:28