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標題: [原創] 黄金交义恆指強制性返回3萬1千点 [打印本頁]

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2008-7-29 09:53 標題: 黄金交义恆指強制性返回3萬1千点

強制性返回3萬1千点

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-7-29 21:41

引用:

原帖由 hktigerwoods 於 2008-7-29 09:53 發表
強制性返回3萬1千点

You really believe?

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2008-7-30 09:33

dont be too serious, Balabala, relax D la, 香港人

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-7-30 11:14

i believe, but not this year

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2008-7-30 14:02

I also think 28000 is quite difficult to acheive this year, not mention 31000, but goes below 20000 I doubt it.

Out of the topic, this forum is getting quiet because people are losing interest in a downward moving market or?

[ 本帖最後由 eatallcheesecak 於 2008-7-30 14:13 編輯 ]

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2008-7-30 14:35

some of the stocks valuation is quite low
time to buy your very first layer

作者: COO 時間: 2008-7-30 15:52

Short term boom. Paulson tries really hard to save the financial market by continuous intervention. This serves, in my opinion, only a temporary purpose. By the time the US presidential election is over, you will find out if Paulson is still around and US will likely to go back and face the reality.

I have reservation that the US consumer market can sustain its growth, not to mentioin that people are going to tighten their belt in anticipation of the tight consumer credit by banks which are getting more conservative now-a-day.

Hong Kong economy can hardly stay out of the troubles from US & China. CEPA 5 only do good in the long run. Short term benefit can hardly be realized. I would suggest to hold not less than 80% cash given the present situation.

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2008-7-30 18:47

I do agree, as mostly do, US's economy is on a downward trend, and there is no argue.

But, if there is really a short term boom as you said, many of us will be happy to utilize it or ride on it as studies shown many investors are short term buyers.

And, if we truely believe the US economy will break down soon, we can short the index or buy the put warrants, and holding 80% cash is not the only way.

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2008-7-30 18:51

But I do agree "holding more cash", as you said, which I was doing in the past few months.

[ 本帖最後由 eatallcheesecak 於 2008-7-30 18:55 編輯 ]

作者: jimmy1001 時間: 2008-7-30 19:31

hold 80% cash till when?

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-7-30 20:42

引用:

原帖由 eatallcheesecak 於 2008-7-30 14:02 發表
I also think 28000 is quite difficult to acheive this year, not mention 31000, but goes below 20000 I doubt it.
Out of the topic, this forum is getting quiet because people are losing interest in a ...

Lauughing if can reach 26000!

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-7-31 11:10

don't you guys heard that, 1+1 = (10-5)/2 + (-0.5)
but not just 1+1=2

things are not so simple as you seen

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-7-31 19:37

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-7-31 11:10 發表
don't you guys heard that, 1+1 = (10-5)/2 + (-0.5)
but not just 1+1=2
things are not so simple as you seen

I am lost!

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-8-1 16:09

pls refer today 1/aug hs index, and think about what i'm talking. OR i strongly suggest you guys to read the book "The Black Swan"

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-8-1 16:17

none of you guys learn from history 1987, 2001 (911), 2003 (SARS). i got the light bulb after 911

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2008-8-1 20:47

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-7-30 08:42 PM 發表

Lauughing if can reach 26000!

The only thing I know is 25,000 - 27,000 is the prediction for this year from the big names.

Also I dont know the stock market is simple or complicate, the only thing I know is it is simple when you are winning money and complicate when you are losing money.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-8-1 21:49

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-8-1 16:17 發表
none of you guys learn from history 1987, 2001 (911), 2003 (SARS). i got the light bulb after 911

Any repeat?

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-8-1 23:08

i mean STRONG BUY after disaster. like this time, the subprime.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-5 01:23

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-8-1 23:08 發表
i mean STRONG BUY after disaster. like this time, the subprime.

subprime has started since Aug 2007
since then the market reached over 30000 the highest and 20000 the lowest
at which point shall we buy ??

作者: COO 時間: 2008-8-5 12:16

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-5 01:23 發表

subprime has started since Aug 2007
since then the market reached over 30000 the highest and 20000 the lowest
at which point shall we buy ??

I believe the subprime issue is fading out, instead, we should pay more attention to post subprime effects, meaning loan default rates (mortgage loans & credit card loans), trend of propoerty prices, consumer confidence, consumer purchase power, unemployment rate, repayment ability index....

We are possibly experiencing a stage of high inflation & low economic growth, i.e. stagflation, before deflation comes.

Investment strategy: 80% cash, 20% derivative investment (preferrably put options to sell selected stocks and commodities).

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-8-5 20:47

引用:

原帖由 COO 於 2008-8-5 12:16 發表
I believe the subprime issue is fading out, instead, we should pay more attention to post subprime effects, meaning loan default rates (mortgage loans & credit card loans), trend of propoerty pric ...

Recession?

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