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標題: When can I buy Australia Stocks [打印本頁]

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-20 10:08 標題: When can I buy Australia Stocks

Aus stock has fallen more than 20% from its highest point
and Aus currency also fell more than 10%

don't have much concept on Aus stocks
wonder whether its good to buy by stage if they further correct
and hold for long term (3-5 years)
in the form of Aus stock funds

Questions:
1. any brother has Aus index chart for 20 years ?
2. any other ways to buy Aus stocks besides their funds (any ETF ?)
3. any other advice?

作者: xpgg 時間: 2008-8-20 14:41

when ??

anytime you like

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-20 17:25

引用:

原帖由 xpgg 於 2008-8-20 14:41 發表
when ??

anytime you like

Please don't kid
Big money is at stake

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-8-20 22:51

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-20 10:08 發表
Aus stock has fallen more than 20% from its highest point
wonder whether its good to buy by stage if they further co ...

I would hold cash for time being.

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-21 10:20

I still +ve for the natural resource for Australian shares. However, AUD1 = HKD6.8 is not cheap, although dropping fm the peak for many already. If u have AUD on hand for long time, then OK, otherwise u have to bear the foreign exchange rate risk, which is not low. People are talking abt Australian Reserve Bk may hv interest cut in Sept. Once the cut happens, the whole dropping in interest rate begins.

Either buying the Australian fund in USD or AUD is no much difference. It means whether u exchange the AUD by yourself or the fund house exchanges into AUD for u.

If u are good enough, u can go to the US market to buy most of the biggest Australian shares in ADR thru e-trade.

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澳洲礦業巨無霸BHP狂賺154億美元

全球最大的礦業公司澳大利亞必和必拓（BHP Billiton）18日表示，主要受惠于价格上調以及產量上升，截至6月30日的07/08財年淨利潤從一年前的134.2億美元增至153.9億美元，同比上升14.7%，連續第六年創出全年利潤新紀錄，但低于市場普遍預測的158.6億美元。

必和必拓公司還公布，年終股息從06/07財年的27美分提高為每股41美分，高于市場預期的36美分。

必和必拓表示，中國連續大規模工業化為全球經濟提供了堅實的支持，原材料需求保持強勁。必和必拓的年度產量公報上顯示，公司13种產品的年產量大幅提高，其中石油、銅、鐵礦石、錳礦石及合金、氧化鋁和鉬的年產量均創公司歷史紀錄。必和必拓表示，公司產量大幅提升是在全球產品需求持續走強、行業面臨供應中斷以及生產成本增加的情況下實現的。

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-8-21 12:41 編輯 ]

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-21 14:14

Thanks
can you comment on the general trend of the Aus stock market?

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-21 17:49

Australian has much stricter rules in banking systems than HK's. Also, the dividend rate is much better as the dividend cannot be much lower than the fixed deposit of AUD around 6%. One should not loss much for the biggest banks like ANZ, Commonwealth, Westpac (WBC) and National Bank (NAB). However, since the economy is very matured, don't expect there will be growth of 100% as the banks in China.

BHP is a good one. WoodSide Petroleum (WPL) is another giant for natural resources. The China gov't keeps buying the biggest giants like Rio Tinto (RIO) and the smaller mining companies to gain bargaining power and raw materials each yr. I don't think the China's purchase of mining companies (big or small) will stop, unless China gov't doesn't want any further expansion in the city construction, new power stations, bus or private cars etc. Also, the "blood" to drive the economy is petroleum. So don't forget any big or small petroleum companies.

The good thing is, unlike China, the Australian's natural resource prices match with the international's. So buying a natural resource company will enable u to benefit fm the appreciation of its material price.

However, since US is the train head for economy. No matter how good the Australian's regulation and companies are, the ASX stock market won't be good if US' train head slow down.

Anyway, I hv quite many ASX stocks already. And I'll try to buy gold or other commodities directly than the companies.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-8-21 21:54 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-8-21 22:49

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-21 14:14 發表
Thanks
can you comment on the general trend of the Aus stock market?

You need to pay tax too.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-22 01:15

thank you for the advice

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-22 08:03

If buying the Australian ADR in the US market, no worry for any Australian or US tax payment.

作者: dejavu2003 時間: 2008-8-22 10:41

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-8-22 08:03 AM 發表
If buying the Australian ADR in the US market, no worry for any Australian or US tax payment.

I guess as a first timer, one would only invest in the blue chips. Most big companies pay fully franked dividends which is already tax paid. But then it put non-residents in a disadvantaged position in that they can't claim the franking credit back. I always use my wife's account to trade. She is a resident but earned no income except interest, so I usually can get most of the franking credit (being 3/7th of the dividend received) back. Just received the cheque from the ATO for 2007/8 earlier this week.

There's no capital gains tax for non-residents.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-8-22 15:17

引用:

原帖由 dejavu2003 於 2008-8-22 10:41 發表
I guess as a first timer, one would only invest in the blue chips. Most big companies pay fully franked dividends which is already tax paid. But then it put non-residents in a disadvantaged posi ...

Thanks for analysis - fellow Aussie!

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-23 18:52

I got the 20 year chart for Aus Stocks
seems need some more correction
so to wait

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-24 00:15

Trend and technical analysis? It is similar to looking at the car back mirror and predicting the road ahead.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-8-24 00:19 編輯 ]

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-27 14:00

【本報綜合報道】全球第二大礦業巨擘力拓（ Rio Tinto ）受惠鐵礦石價格升至紀錄新高，上半年純利及營業額均勁升逾倍，勝預期，力拓亦估計下半年新興市場對商品需求會維持高企。惟商品市場在美元轉強下，近期仍偏軟，國際油價昨跌至近每桶 112 美元，現貨金同樣無運行。

中印鐵礦石需求仍大
截至 6 月底，力拓上半年純利飆升 113% 至 69.1 億美元（約 539 億港元），營業額升 125% 至 271.9 億美元，動力主要來自鋁及鐵礦石銷售，兩者營業額分別激增 6 倍及 1 倍。

力拓主席斯金納表示，儘管環球經濟增長放緩，股市有下滑趨勢，但隨中國及印度等國家進入工業化以及城市化階段，預料對鐵礦石等商品需求依然龐大。

對於必和必拓出價 1420 億美元收購力拓一事，力拓行政總裁阿爾巴內塞強調，出價與公司實際價值仍有距離。但分析師指，隨商品需求增長放緩，力拓業績可能逆轉。

美元兌歐元升至近半年高位，商品價格繼續受壓，紐約 10 月期油最多跌 2.75 美元，見每桶 112.36 美元。現貨金昨一度跌 14.62 美元，低見每盎斯 807.33 美元，然而紐約商品交易所期貨合約顯示，期金好倉合約比淡倉多出 11.2 萬張，反映市場看好黃金後市。

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-27 14:09

Seems to me that only mining companies in Australia are in good prospect, but not the others.

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經濟滑坡﹕澳洲各大公司掀起裁員風
澳洲第二大的報業集團費爾法克斯（Fairfax）8月26日宣布在未來三個月之內裁員550名雇員，公司所進行的裁員計劃中，30%將被裁掉的職位是公司旗下的編輯業務。

据悉裁員的目的是為未來几年業務對公司進行全面的結构調整；公司負責企業業務的執行董事表示，裁員計划不會破坏費爾法克斯集團公司在媒体聯盟談判中的競爭优勢。

另外﹐澳洲第六大銀行保險公司Suncorp Metway也將會裁員，但是公司拒絕給出具體人數。

Suncorp行政總裁表示，公司零售銀行和商業銀行的合並不會對前線工作人員造成特別影響。他說：“合併可能會影響到一些後臺辦公人員。但我們將會像往常一樣根據營業額，通過對工作人員的調配來盡量減少裁員人數。我們這樣做旨在提高效率，但是不會通過裁員來實現高效率。”

Suncorp的對手澳洲保險集團(IAG)七月份已經宣佈裁員600 人。

作者: mmr.ren 時間: 2008-8-27 14:20

Buy!!!!!

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-8-29 04:58

Although the mining stocks are dropping fm the peak, but are still expensive....

澳洲力拓﹕中國鐵礦需求強大要建5万摩天樓
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

　　世界三大鐵礦石巨頭之一澳大利亞力拓集團（Rio Tinto）昨天稱，中國將在未來20年內建造5万座摩天大樓！其規模相當于10個紐約。力拓稱，這將為鋼鐵等原料行業創造長期而穩定的需求。

　　据英國《衛報》8月27日報道，力拓集團在其報告中預測中國未來將有221個城市的人口超過100万，而今天歐洲人口過百万的城市只有35個。麥肯錫公司預測，除了大規模打造基礎設施外，中國還將建造2万到5万座摩天大樓，其中許\多將建在欠發達的內陸省份，而不是北京上海等大城市。

　　報道說，力拓今年上半年在中國的收入与去年同期相比已經翻倍，從24億美元增加到了49億美元。

　　力拓首席執行官湯姆阿爾巴內塞樂觀地說：“毋庸置疑，礦物行業目前面臨著巨大的需求，史無前例。”

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-8-29 04:59 編輯 ]

作者: ces 時間: 2008-8-29 15:41

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-8-29 04:58 發表
Although the mining stocks are dropping fm the peak, but are still expensive....

--------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Yes
so I'll be waiting
and seems there's sign for the commodity market to starting on a bear trend
so personally don't favour mining stocks at this stage

Thanks for your guidance

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-8-29 20:31

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-8-24 00:15 發表
Trend and technical analysis? It is similar to looking at the car back mirror and predicting the road ahead.

It will be very bumpy!

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-2 21:54

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-8-20 10:08 發表
and Aus currency also fell more than 10% ...

AUD approaching 0.82.

Almost dropped 20% from peak.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-3 11:12

Long AUD at 0.82 may be safe in long term
but still have some risk in short term
since there may still be bad news

NZD may heading for the bottom from now till next rate meeting (next thursday)
likely -0.25 but market has expected so effect may be neutral
if NZD bank delivers a soft post meeting notes
NZD may rebound
I'm consider to buy if under 0.67

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-3 20:19

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-3 11:12 發表
Long AUD at 0.82 may be safe in long term...

My PB forecast AUD back to 0.90 within thi year.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-4 02:05

if got spare money
and would like to take out some long term investment
buying AUD and NZD now may be a good choice

The extend of further correction is limited
say unlikely more than 5%

but the outlook is
in 3-5 years likely be a 20-30% rise in price
plus annual interest of at least 4-5%

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-4 20:12

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-4 02:05 發表
if got spare money ...

I have some AUD earning 8%

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