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標題: hold nzd/Yen 0.70 for long term [打印本頁]

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-6 13:46 標題: hold nzd/Yen 0.70 for long term

Bought large amount NZD/Yen at 70
plan to hold for months or up to 80
to me each time Yen rise
due to carry trade rewinding is good chance to sell

NZD 0.665 good price
but may further fall next week before rate meeting (next thursday)
so wait
but will take if price remains at 0.665
by wednesday

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-11 18:32

NZD -0.5 % great surprise
in short term will fall so don't touch

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-11 20:25

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-11 18:32 發表
NZD -0.5 % great surprise
in short term will fall so don't touch

AUD very weak too @0.79

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-9-12 11:14

We can see that although the share markets are crashing in these days, but YEN is very strong and reached around 106 yesterday. That should be the squaring of the carry-trade.

I have some NZD-YEN long contracts, but no worry much as I am earning good interest and no any pressure to square the position. I should buy more if the pair drops more in value, and wait for the cycle to go up again.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-11 20:25 發表

AUD very weak too @0.79

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-12 15:34

Yes
NZD/Yen +6% interest
around 70 is good price to hold
I've got lots of it and I plan to hold them for very long term

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-12 20:56

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-12 15:34 發表
Yes
NZD/Yen +6% interest
around 70 is good price to hold
I've got lots of it and I plan to hold them for very long term

Good ar. How about AUD/JPY?

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-9-12 22:01

YEN is hard to predict as it reflects the speculating factor but not purely Japan's own economic factor.

I think AUD should be stronger than NZD as China has real demand for many of Australian's raw materials and also AUD. NZ has not many mining business as Australia.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-12 22:16

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-12 22:01 發表
YEN is hard to predict as it reflects the speculating factor but not purely Japan's own economic factor.
I think AUD should be stronger than NZD as China has real demand for many of Australian's ra ...

So can long AUD/NZD pair.

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-9-12 22:37

To long AUD/NZD, u need to pay interest......

Forex is a difficult game.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-13 02:30

Long AUD/NZD in very short term may be OK
since NZD had just released a very bad news

but similar bad news from AUD may be coming
So in mid to long term I think the rate would go back to under 1.2 (now 1.23)

The 5 years chart shows 1.17 may be the middle rate

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-13 02:39

P.S. :
AUD mining
NZD agricultural

commodity market is falling so both currencies may be affected
in good economic situation minerals may have large demand
but agricultural goods are basic needs that have market even when economic situation is bad

the value of both currency lies on their high interest rates
Even if they each cut 3 % they still much higher than other currencies.

the current sharp correction may be golden chance to hold them against US dollar

[ 本帖最後由 ces 於 2008-9-14 12:21 編輯 ]

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-9-13 13:23

Not interest in AUD/NZD as:
1) Need to pay interest if need to sit in boat
2) Variation between 2 currencies should not be big enough

There should be other currency pairs or single currency to speculate for better opportunity cost.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-13 13:24 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-16 21:21

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-13 13:23 發表
Not interest in AUD/NZD as: ...

JPY heading to 100. Wow.

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-9-16 22:02

Resulting of the squaring of the carry-trade.

But I'll start to short YEN when it reaches 100 or higher.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-16 21:21 發表

JPY heading to 100. Wow.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-16 22:26

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-16 22:02 發表
Resulting of the squaring of the carry-trade.
But I'll start to short YEN when it reaches 100 or higher.

Highest at 103.5 today. AUD is scary the way it is falling but Aussie resoures stocks are reatively OK.

作者: b4321 時間: 2008-9-16 23:16

I have sold out all Australian and HK stocks including Manulife which are making profit and increase my cash position.

Feeling scary if the AIG collapses, which is highly likely. The AIG share prices was USD60 in Jan-2008, and the price was USD4.7X last Friday, but now is only USD3.88. It is not much difference fm bankruptcy but just a matter of time. The collapse of AIG should have much influence on the confidence on the equity market. I maybe able to buy back the sold shares at a much lower price later.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-9-16 22:26 發表

Highest at 103.5 today. AUD is scary the way it is falling but Aussie resoures stocks are reatively OK.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2008-9-17 09:40 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-17 21:02

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-9-16 23:16 發表
Feeling scary if the AIG collapses, which is highly likely. The AIG share pric ...

If AIG falls, the financial world will collapse.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-9-18 18:28

Yes
Don't think Bush would let AIG fall

In the absence of further bad news
US stocks may rebound

For HK the rebound may be even faster
Mainland Govt is regret for having introduced so many harsh measures for the past year
It seems its has start doing something encouraging

The plunging of Mainland Bank stocks today are good chance to buy since the AIG assets (main reason for plunging) they hold are not significant

1398 $4
3988 $2.9
no one buy

Last year same time $7.x and $5.x
All rush to buy

This is the market

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-18 20:39

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-18 18:28 發表
many ha ...

Killed all the 淡友 today.

作者: jackleunggg 時間: 2008-9-18 22:03

May be I lucky I bought NZ @4.22 long time ago and keep it up to now

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-9-18 22:52

引用:

原帖由 jackleunggg 於 2008-9-18 22:03 發表
May be I lucky I bought NZ @4.22 long time ago and keep it up to now

A little bit la.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-3 02:39

[quote]原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-6 13:46 發表

Bought large amount NZD/Yen at 70
plan to hold for months or up to 80

Situation review 3.10.2008 2.36 am
NZD/Yen now 69.5
range since 6.9.2006 67.5 - 74.0

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-3 20:41

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-3 02:39 發表
[quote]原帖由 ces 於 2008-9-6 13:46 發表 ...

So optimistic?

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-4 13:46

Never mind
Eating interest to wait

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-4 22:19

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-4 13:46 發表
Never mind
Eating interest to wait

Some days only 3% but another day 8%!

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-6 13:45

Now (6.10.2008 1.30 p.m.)
only 67
too bad

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-6 21:37

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-6 13:45 發表
only 67
too bad

64 wor.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-7 11:59

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-10-6 21:37 發表

64 wor.h:" />

Yes NZD/YEN really bad recently
But won't stop loss
Just eating interest to wait

If the global financial situation become less fluctuating
Yen may correct

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-7 13:36

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-7 11:59 發表
Just eating interest to wait

NZD almost at 0.60!

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-7 18:24

Yes and I am tolerating price

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-7 20:15

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-7 18:24 發表
Yes and I am tolerating price

Need to increase margin call.

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-8 16:03

Already increased
May be a long term battle

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-8 20:00

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-8 16:03 發表
Already increased
May be a long term battle

Very bad today!

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-8 21:05

I surrendered
heavily injured

作者: hardcat 時間: 2008-10-8 22:14

the systemic financial and economic system meltdown that i have been mentioning is now *beginning* to happen (and will go much worse), carry trade is really unwinding big time, partly because of liquidation of higher yielding assets including stocks and currencies... with the credit market collapsing, carry trade will probably be dead for quite a while... the credit bubble has burst irreversibly, it will not be possible again to resume previous credit orgy - too much debts in the households /banks /corporations, no other bubble to take the place of the real estate market for reflation (maybe inflating the renewable energy sector according to some)

and the USD printing engine is just starting to go full throttle, USD will become a toilet paper, probably within few years, to be replaced by 'amero'...

this crisis is only in the initial stage, in a not so distant future, civil unrest/riots will happen in the US (hopefully a revolution will happen), but the US *army* and police will be suppressing violently,  the US to become a fascist/police state...and to merge with canada & mexico... and a big war is in the card in 2009 involving the US (this war date is 99% accurate by source other than mine)

In my humble opinion, need to keep some of assets in physical gold (if not already so), the paper gold comex market is being manipulated,  the current market gold price is disconnected from the physical gold market, many places worldwide don't have gold for sales anymore, or taking many weeks for delivery, this is clear evidence of price manipulation, to keep gold from soaring (by the Fed, etc)...  and central banks now are hoarding gold as well, gold price might shoot through the roof when the delivery defaults...

and also stockpile food...

and further down the road (maybe several months later - depends on the progression of the events) accumulate oil &  agri-commodities, commodities as well (anything tangible and necessities)

http://forum.timway.com/f/thread-205586-1-1.html

--- This is my personal opinion only, I could be entirely wrong ---

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-10-8 22:26 編輯 ]

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-9 21:08

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-10-8 21:05 發表
I surrendered
heavily injured

Me too.

作者: meeting 時間: 2008-10-10 11:19

get some NZD at avg 6.1, intended to keep hold for interest earning, what about the future for NZD ?

作者: ces 時間: 2008-10-10 11:36

I surrendered from my long NZD/YEN wednesday night after the global nations cut their interest rates jointly. And yet market only rebound for a while and within an hour stock and high interest currencies fall sharply again.
Even this great good news could not support for a prolonged rebound. Therefore I think I should cut loss. Retain the green hill and won't afraid having no wood to burn.

I hope the measures taken by the nations may pacify the market in the longer term. If the market start to calm down carry trade may revive.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-10 20:55

引用:

原帖由 meeting 於 2008-10-10 11:19 發表
get some NZD at avg 6.1, intended to keep hold for interest earning, what about the future for NZD ?

$6.1 - long way to fall. Maybe hit $4.

作者: meeting 時間: 2008-10-13 18:13 標題: 回復 39# 的帖子

Today 4.6792

, if downs to 4, maybe keep this for travelling petty cash

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-10-13 21:03

引用:

原帖由 meeting 於 2008-10-13 18:13 發表
Today 4.6792 , if downs to 4, maybe keep this for travelling petty cash

Well, can only go up from this point.

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