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標題: [灌水] 這不是金融海潚…這是世界世紀大蕭絛 [打印本頁]

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2008-11-24 14:58 標題: 這不是金融海潚…這是世界世紀大蕭絛

我曾經講過5仔可能10年都難企絕$100以上… from [censored], share with u
點解???

因為這不是金融海潚…
這是世界世紀大蕭絛…

你可以點做???

Sell your assets and go away…
預留3年生活費…
唔好借錢…
包括mortgage…
你唔相信我都冇辦法…
你d錢係你嘅唔係我嘅…

呢25年嘅風光係要還嘅…
你冇買股票…冇樓…唔關你事???

對唔住…你人工唔值咁高…

有人話我同羅耕一樣咁淡...
羅耕恆指睇6000...
我可以話我淡過羅耕...

我認為...
恆指4000樓下...
滙豐$25樓下...
道指3000樓下...
上A 500樓下...
樓價比SARS價跌幾成...
油價會跌回$20樓下...
金價會跌回$300樓下...
外幣除日Yen外...跌到你唔信...
有乜嘢升???

有...美金...即港幣...
港幣升係好事???

錯...强港幣指會令港股跟樓價跌得更厲害…
仲有乜升???

有...香港失業率...
我相信可升上15%-20%...

隨著油價跌回$20...
中東跟俄羅斯將玩完...
相信這會引起更多恐佈擊...甚至戰爭...

唔洗驚...香港有阿爺照???

我認為阿爺唔會掂...
歐美d友都唔會買新嘢...
世界工廠死緊...
我相信阿爺GDP會衰退...
4萬億救市???

靠內需???

唔好講笑...阿爺靠內需...唔該20年後啦...
依家買國企股...
你買啦...我就唔買...
939...1398...見$1...
2628...見$5...
資源股PK...
內房股會有供股...甚至玩完...

政府叫香港工商界開辦內地市場...
唔該慳d...
肯定連本都賠...

好多嘢會back to basic...
英超d球星吓吓幾億...
哈哈...值唔值呀???

好多國家會玩完...
咁今個世界世紀大蕭絛邊個最後win???

有…係…
…
…
…
美國…
點解???

自己諗...
唔信???

來緊呢5-10年你用對眼去睇吓...

[ 本帖最後由 hktigerwoods 於 2008-11-26 03:39 編輯 ]

作者: hardcat 時間: 2008-11-24 23:35

I agrees with many of the things you have said indeed, that we'll have global recession, epic US & UK depression (almost certainty), high unemployment, a war in 2009 etc... it is possible you are completely right about your scenario of highly distressed and sustained asset price deflation (after all, there are still big timebomb in cds, commercial real estate, credit card, etc waiting)
But the only thing i might contest is about the relative strength of the USD, it is partly a shortlive phenomenon due to liquidation of bad investment driving temporary demands for USD, and partly 'perceived' safe haven ... once that process is done, i think the USD will resume its dive... just witness the recent trillions worth of "reckless and irresponsible" bailout by the US Fed (US is the most indebted country in the world, this year will have the highest ever record deficit and most likely next year), where does that bailout money come from? they will never be able to borrow that trillions by selling T bonds on open market, as most foreign countries have their own economic problem to solve now, the US will feel lucky if those foreign countries don't sell T bonds to raise the money, for example, china has to use $586 billions as stimulus, the sensible option for china will be to raise that money partly by selling some T bonds, partly by printing... so for the US to do the bailout, the primary option is to print the USD *massively* out of thin air (i.e., monetize the debt by having the Fed itself buying the T bonds)... destroying the USD in the process and inflating away the US debts (which is favorable to the US)... if this kind of bailout works, then the meltdown that we are now having would have been solved long ago [or non existent in the first place], by simply printing more USD and giving them to every debtors for settlement.. and even better give every citizen some extra for spending to stimulate the economy... and does this seem we can maintain infinite prosperity without any pain and suffering by simply giving them cheap money every time we have economic problem like the US is currently doing?? the Fed is acting like its balance sheet is *unlimited*, this is downright scary... and the trillions of phony paper USD money is only a little bit better than the monopoly money, just because the US gov claim/promise it worth something, and that we 'still' trust that the US gov will be able to make good on this promise for exchange in terms of goods and service... longer term, I believe this promise is not possible or sustainable without devaluing USD massively.. or simply the US default on its debts... the current course of action by the US gov will either lead to destruction of the USD (replace by a new currency), or a big change in the exchange rate system involving devaluation of the USD or a new monetary system.... so IMHO the hard assets & stock markets are not likely to be depressed for too long a time (provided the company haven't bankrupted and still have a viable biz under the highly distressed economy), that said, at least the DOW still have plenty of room to fall... only when the hyperinflationary money printing becomes pervasive which i don't know when, the face value for those assets will go up a lot indeed, but make no mistake, their rise is not because of economic recovery, it is purely down to hyperinflation - the worthless paper money - ... hence gold, oil, food, and commodities could be doing very well...it is good to stockpile food and water just to be safe.. all these bailouts are only delaying the inevitable, and creating a bigger crisis to come. Edit: the USD's relative value among currencies depends on if and how much other countries are gonna print their money too.. but hard assets should do well against paper currencies i believe... . *** just wanna share my opinion & speculation only, i have been wrong many times before, as this can be easily reversed by policy change by the real masters (secret bankers & elites in the US) who are looting people's wealth big time***

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-11-25 10:18 編輯 ]

作者: asahi 時間: 2008-11-26 15:26

你班淡友,正妖言惑眾

20billion to save Citigroup is small money, US national debt is 10,700 Billion as we speak. Letting Big 3 auto companies GM/D-C/Ford bankrupt will create more trouble than doing nothing.
Instead of increasing money supply like he said, 20Billion will likely to have multiplier effect (1/interest rate) to flow in the market. Talking about massive deflation in USD, it will not happen like 2007 coz oil price had dropped significantly (such mechanism has to work with other nations sell-off USD to buy cheap USD-valued commodities such as oil and gold), but this mechanism had failed as other nations has more problem with their own currency) Meanwhile the USD will remain moderate (remember, ForEx is a relative measure of purchasing power of nations), Fed will further lower interest rate to stimulate market and lowering debt interest payment for corporation. Talking about devaluation of assets/equity in housing market, I presumed most of the US problem had been sold to European banks as Financial derivatives.

hard assets has trouble on liquidity, if liquidity is no good even hard assets trigger sell-off and/or depreciation from corporations.

[ 本帖最後由 asahi 於 2008-11-26 16:30 編輯 ]

作者: hardcat 時間: 2008-11-26 22:18

I could be entirely wrong though, and indeed wishing I am wrong

...
To be honest, I think this collapse is going to be long, deep and of devastating impact, we are still in the early stage only, the whole US financial and banking system is insolvent, the commercial real estate, credit card/auto loans are only beginning to tank... and also the potential derivatives & cds timebomb, it is possible that the financial/banking system is on the brink of shutdown esp the US, UK (that is, having enforced "bank holidays" some time in future)... The UK is as bad as the US, if not more so... This depression will be spreading global, far and away...
For example, the bailout of Citigroup by the Fed doesn't make it immune from collapse, just some 'salt water' in the meantime for life support, they are still holding *tons* of toxic assets, those nuclear waste will probably be dumped onto the taxpayers eventually... If we have been reading news, we would find announcements of new bailout plan or funding almost every week, this is the money for keeping the system from total catastrophic collapse, so far, the US has pledged 7.7 *trillions* of bailout money (half of US GDP, not all 7.7T got used though, some are money guarantees only)... and the global financial & monetary system is being jeopardised by these reckless bailouts & 'stimulus' programs infused with phony money, these are akin to more shots of heroin to a drug addict (in this case debt addict), do you think this will cure him, what this will in fact accomplish, is buy him a little more time of 'fake peace & security' while making him even more ill, and hasten his eventual death... When more and more of such shots of heroin happen, it is possible the fragile 'faith' (and solely faith) that is holding together this fraudulent fiat paper monetary system to evaporate, triggering a run into hard assets... especially GOLD... up till now, Gold has been doing very well against *every* asset classes - hard, soft, commodities, currencies (except yen, usd)

The gold price in paper gold Comex market is highly corrupted and manipulated, and disconnected from reality in retail gold market price, the price gap between the two markets are gonna increase... and even holding etf gold or paper gold still have counterparty risk...
I am not convincing anybody to buy gold, but if do wanna buy, it is much better buying *physical* gold... ** again this is my opinion only, i can be entirely wrong here **

作者: 流料 時間: 2008-11-27 02:12

我認為...
恆指400樓下...
滙豐$2樓下...
道指300樓下...
上A 50樓下...
樓價比SARS價跌9成9...
油價會跌回$10樓下...
金價會跌回$30樓下...

on 9!

作者: asahi 時間: 2008-11-27 09:39

In a downturn economy, a dollar will make more cents (sense)
I have to agree with you, that the entire problem of subprime mortgage comes from lack of regulation on derivatives, and the blind spot of the credit system (for both personal and organizational) In 2009, the emerging markets which have less influence from the tsunami & will likely become first to get out of the recession. Who will need gold when there is no war, and who will sell their equities when there is no problem. Nonetheless, when equity price become attractive and investment conditions allow, it will always be a good time to invest. If CNY devaluate appropriately (as a direct effect of the price fall in ComEx, will presumeably ease or even cure the global stagflation problem)

[ 本帖最後由 asahi 於 2008-11-27 09:42 編輯 ]

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-11-27 17:44

引用:

原帖由流料於 2008-11-26 18:12 發表
我認為...
恆指400樓下...
滙豐$2樓下...
道指300樓下...
上A 50樓下...
樓價比SARS價跌9成9...
油價會跌回$10樓下...
金價會跌回$30樓下...

on 9!

Brother, don't be so angry.  Anyone can have his/her own opinions, you can also say :
HS index above 50000
HSBC above $300
Dow above 25000
Housing price $50000/sq ft
oil price above 250 etc etc etc.......

The point is not bullish or bearish, it is the point how you execute your own plan.  (this is the reason why some people live in the mid-level,
and some didn't)
I brought stock (hk/us), currency etc etc since 1990, if u recall your mind, in each period of time, many different opinions came out (gd/bad news),
what you can do is listen and do your own analysis.

Like i said before, i will buy if that day has more than 800 pt drops, and that kind of stocks, you keep it.
Let me tell you, In my profoilo, the dividend from HSBC in each year is more than $x,xxx,xxx.00.  You can also have this achievement, if you
stick on your own good plan.

Good Luck

作者: hardcat 時間: 2008-11-27 20:09

[deleted]...

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-11-27 20:16 編輯 ]

作者: hardcat 時間: 2008-11-27 20:32

引用:

原帖由 asahi 於 2008-11-27 09:39 發表 IWho will need gold when there is no war ...

IMO, Gold doesn't need a war to shine when the paper currencies are gonna be 'worth less' and worthless every day (my guess).. There is very little inherent value for a piece of paper that have some ink on it saying it worth $100.. In zimbabwe, we will find $100 Billion inked in a piece of paper note... The situation will not be as bad as in zimbabwe though, I would stick with hard assets especially Gold, agricultural commodities, and reduced US/HKD holdings, food & water for survival

-- sorry for extra post above, pls feel free to delete the one above.. tks

[ 本帖最後由 hardcat 於 2008-11-27 22:04 編輯 ]

作者: asahi 時間: 2008-11-28 01:07

Most of the conditions u mentioned could happen. If massive deflation of USD will likely to happen yet it must cause US into hyperinflation like hardcat predicted, therefore the Fed must take this into consideration and monitor its money supply and consider which company to bailout or not.
The deflation of USD will trigger oil price to rise, and trigger another wave of USD sell-off. If thats the case hyperinflation must again occur in US.

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2008-11-28 11:56

i predict the most terrible situation is

heavy inflation happen in western well developed world
say 20% inflation due to massive dollar printing and massive rate cutting

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-11-28 16:32

Warren Buffett always laughed by people when he took any trading deals, but he do what he thinks.  Let's take some examples,
he sold 857@ around $12 (he brought @ $2)
he brought coca cola below US5 (last closing @45.38)
he brought  johnson & johnson below US10 (last closing @58.27)
he brought bank of america below US10 (last closing @15.43)
etc ....

even the financial sectors drop severity in the past year, he stills earn a lot.
In the past few decades, the economy up and down; down and up many many times.  It doesn't matter, the main factor is TIMING.

You also can be a financial freedom people.

Again, buy at every more than 800pt drop.  After 5 years, when you look back, you will understand what Warren Buffett's thinking.

Good Luck

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-12-3 14:58

Very short term strategy : long hs index, cut lost @13200 , take profit @14700

Good luck

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-12-4 22:18

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-12-3 14:58 發表
Very short term strategy : long hs index, cut lost @13200 , take profit @14700
Good luck

Will it end?

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-12-5 11:54

It will be ended someday, but i don't know when, even Warrent Buffett.

Some people said 2Q2009; end of 2009; 1Q2010 ........ Like some pessimistic brother here said 10yr.

But i tends to be optimistic, because everythings in the world are running in a cycle. When the economy hits the bottom, it will rebound.
When it reaches the peak, it will drop, it is very nature.

The situation now is because of the outside catalyst added; but now many outside catalyst are adding to the economy in order to correct it.

So, 2010 maybe is the next up raising year.

Good Luck

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-12-5 21:16

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-12-5 11:54 發表
It will be ended someday, but i don't know when, even Warrent Buffett. ...

Very long wait!

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-12-8 12:24

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-12-3 06:58 發表
Very short term strategy : long hs index, cut lost @13200 , take profit @14700

Good luck

This week strategy : 1. take profit as mentioned before
2. rollover, cut lost @ 13700, take profit @ 16000 (if vol increase to 60B/day, this rally will reach 18000)

Good luck

作者: peninsula 時間: 2008-12-8 22:13

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-12-8 12:24 發表
This week strategy : 1. take profit as mentioned before..

Wow, 18000?

作者: easylover 時間: 2008-12-19 15:10

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-12-8 04:24 發表

This week strategy : 1. take profit as mentioned before
2. rollover, cut lost @ 13700, take profit @ 16000 (if vol increase to 60B/day, this rally will reach 180 ...

Fasten your seat belt, i guess the rally is going to start next week.

Good Luck

作者: easylover 時間: 2009-1-5 15:50

引用:

原帖由 easylover 於 2008-12-8 04:24 發表

This week strategy : 1. take profit as mentioned before
2. rollover, cut lost @ 13700, take profit @ 16000 (if vol increase to 60B/day, this rally will reach 180 ...

Turnover is increasing, stick on the last strategy.
For aggressive person who can keep until around 18000; othewise sell half @16500, and keep to see.

Good Luck

作者: kathywonder 時間: 2009-1-8 17:57

引用:

原帖由 hktigerwoods 於 2008-11-24 14:58 發表
我曾經講過5仔可能10年都難企絕$100以上… from [censored], share with u
點解???
因為這不是金融海潚…
這是世界世紀大蕭絛…

你可以點做???
Sell your assets and go away…
預 ...

Basically I dun know who you're, but partly you say it right. Personal opinion's would it be a great depression again, it seems the way to dead end, and at least what my husband said, the Dow Jones'll drop rapidly to 6000-6500, (but seems impossible if drop to 3000 or lower....) (or even HK HS Index maybe reach to 9000 or lower, hopefully it won't.) And most of the media in HK especially the guy who called Uncle 6 (6 叔) is kinda rubbish talk, and said that a strong back up by Mainland China, a sooner recovery of HK economy. well....I dun wanna make it long, but listen......it's just a beginning of depression. If u wanna buy a house, think 'bout is still stable, or not!? Can u afford ur mortgage less than 30% of ur monthly salary.....or....unless the housing price in HK can drop more than 20% or more......Remember......Cash The King......

作者: kathywonder 時間: 2009-1-8 18:06

其實...樓主大概想我們留意...o係現時環境, 已經不再是我們這群小股民可以 predict 到的, 況且...最 worst o既情況何時來臨, we have no idea......所以樓主想 bring out 個 point 係....keep more cash better than buying anythin' unknown or insecure. 只係小女子一點意見, 未必係o岩, 但 kathy 唔係你o地講o既"淡友"囉......

作者: colin 時間: 2009-1-11 04:22

冇乜好討論，睇淡咪行動囉，講多無謂，行動最實際，歡迎買跌。

作者: easylover 時間: 2009-1-11 17:09

don't angry brothers and sisters, every individual have their own opinion, nothing wrong.
if you think the HS index will drop to 9000, dow will drop to 3000, i would suggest you to PUT strongly.
Some people think that it is worth to buy a 30M apartment, but some people think that it is very unacceptable even it is 3M.
Becuase we have different background, so the way i take dosen't mean it fit you.
All comments from analysts are different (with bullish and bearish), no analyst can predict the market 100% correct, so we cannot
say that this is good and that is bad.
We need to digest and have our own judgement.
I strongly believe that every things in the world are running in a cycle, so i strongly believe that the economy will getting better
and better.

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2009-1-14 16:30

HUH, hsbc = $70, the lowest at $69.70 today

作者: hardcat 時間: 2009-1-14 23:05

Hi all brothers & sister,

I didn't mean to antagonise the discussion into a bull vs bear camps, it is my wish that the HK/China economies & stock market to thrive and prosper. I apologise if my original input offended anyone... What easylover said is true indeed, we can all make money in every kind of markets ..

Wish you guys earning big bucks in stock market - Up or Down...

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2009-1-15 10:17

都系個句, 贏錢輸錢自己受
你d錢係你嘅唔係我嘅

作者: hktigerwoods 時間: 2009-1-15 17:29 標題: 匯控英國股價失守 64 港元

引用:

原帖由 hktigerwoods 於 2009-1-14 08:30 發表
HUH, hsbc = $70, the lowest at $69.70 today

匯豐控股持續積弱，本港收市報 66 元，跌 4 元，而在英國市場股價再跌，報約 5.62 英鎊，相當於約 63.5 港元。

作者: limited 時間: 2009-1-19 00:43

Yap, HSBC' price......be careful

作者: kathywonder 時間: 2009-2-12 12:10

Stay alert by now!!

作者: icebreaker 時間: 2009-2-21 18:25

hard days......

作者: Blurmax 時間: 2009-2-26 21:49

起碼死多兩三年.......

作者: 6600chukong 時間: 2009-2-27 18:26 標題: rebound 1 wk

#5 hsbc recently rebound by 1 wk, due to too much short sell.

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