香港 Xocat Forum 討論區 - Powered by Discuz! Board

標題: Time to call HSBC, afterall, X'mas is near! [打印本頁]

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-15 21:14 標題: Time to call HSBC, afterall, X'mas is near!

I just bought HSBC call this afternoon,,, it is the real thing to win BIG, not petty IPO drawing for dinner buffet

1. no further bad news for HSBC la,,,

2. no pressure from warrant dealers too this few days,,,

3. Some technical indicators will look positive in a day or two if HSBC stands at 141.x

First target: 145

Follow at your own risk!

OVER

P.S. Today my call went up almost 5%,,, let watch tonite ADR, HSBC in UK is doing okay,,,

作者: leoxi 時間: 2006-12-15 23:39

Good call

But just remember the long holiday is coming up. You might lose on delta if the price is not volatile

作者: FeiJai 時間: 2006-12-16 11:29

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2006-12-15 01:14 PM 發表
I just bought HSBC call this afternoon,,, it is the real thing to win BIG, not petty IPO drawing for dinner buffet

1. no further bad news for HSBC la,,,

2. no pressure from warrant dea ...

Buy HSBC at Xmas time is a historical phenomenon. In the old days, THE ONLY choice of all time was HSBC, not now.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-16 13:16

引用:

原帖由 leoxi 於 2006-12-15 03:39 PM 發表
Good call

But just remember the long holiday is coming up. You might lose on delta if the price is not volatile

agree,,,, so only a few out of hundred of HSBC's calls are worth holding for days or weeks,,, your job to find them out, and I have done hours and hours of hard work to get a good pick,,, low premium, low IV,

For my call, any 1 dollar raise in HSBC will give me 12-16% profit and vice versa for its drop,,,

Merry Christmas to all,,, It is indeed one of the best time to call HSBC,,, this March I called it from 127.x to +136 (getting over 100K profit); then during summer,,, from 133.x to 140,,, and recently from 144 to historical high,,,

Now I'm expecting hsbc to go up from 141 to +145 for a potential of few dozen K profit,,,

P.S. Warrant is an unfair games, I know it better than 99.9% of warrant players, but it could also be a sensible investment with the right calls/puts and good timing,,,

OVER

[ 本帖最後由小花至愛於 2006-12-16 05:21 AM 編輯 ]

作者: mysyu 時間: 2006-12-16 16:03

With all the attention now centred on the mainland stocks, the performance of HSBC may not be that good as in previous years. I am holding some HSBC shares, but will not buy more, as I donot expect it to rise drastically in the months to come.

作者: penisonic 時間: 2006-12-16 19:37

提示: 作者被禁止或刪除內容自動屏蔽

作者: peninsula 時間: 2006-12-16 19:42

引用:

原帖由 FeiJai 於 2006-12-16 11:29 AM 發表
Buy HSBC at Xmas time is a historical phenomenon. In the old days, THE ONLY choice of all time was HSBC, not now.

Yes - I agreed. With so many options and HSBC requiring large outlay, I will definitely stay clear unless it gets back to @$133 to $135 range.

作者: 東虫 時間: 2006-12-16 23:58

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2006-12-15 01:14 PM 發表
I just bought HSBC call this afternoon,,, it is the real thing to win BIG, not petty IPO drawing for dinner buffet

1. no further bad news for HSBC la,,,

2. no pressure from warrant dea ...

Some fund lo said HSBC go down to 115.

作者: eatallcheesecak 時間: 2006-12-17 02:11

引用:

原帖由東虫於 2006-12-16 03:58 PM 發表
Some fund lo said HSBC go down to 115.

Will it make you happier if I am telling you some fund-managers have the HSBC 12 months target price set to over $160.

作者: leoxi 時間: 2006-12-17 02:46

引用:

原帖由東虫於 2006-12-16 11:58 PM 發表

Some fund lo said HSBC go down to 115.

That's CLSA

作者: FeiJai 時間: 2006-12-17 22:49

引用:

原帖由 mysyu 於 2006-12-16 08:03 AM 發表
With all the attention now centred on the mainland stocks, the performance of HSBC may not be that good as in previous years. I am holding some HSBC shares, but will not buy more, as I donot expec ...

Perhaps you want to consider US$ based ELM of HSBC, anything equivalent to HK$138 or below is a good buy.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-18 21:06

Thanks for the comments and responses,,, but you folks' understanding of the price trend and mechanics of hsbc was too simplistic,,,, I have tracked HSBC's price, warrant factors, global performance, big hongs' action for a couple of years very intensively,,, about 80-90% of my warrant play on HSBC had sizeable profit,,,

I'd bought + 60K of 1357 last friday around .82-.84,,, target price after xmas is +1.1,,, if you folks don' like to call HSBC to get profit for x'mas gift, that's fine,,, afterall, warrant is a unfair game and dealers are hard to beat or from which to squeeze profit,,,

Let wait 1-2 weeks to let the fact speaks for itself,,,

CASE CLOSED,,,

OVER,,,

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-18 21:16

From my years of HSBC warrant experiences,,, concerted dealers' involvement can account for 30-70% of changes in the stock price when street volume of warrants are substantial,,,

The warrant factors for the recent HSBC's drop were: 9676, 3810, 3864

瑞信 9676 匯豐瑞信六十二購(@EC) 認購標準 08/12/06 123.88 0.000 0.000 2.000 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 68.2
花旗 3810 匯豐花旗六十二購(@EC) 認購標準 11/12/06 138.8 0.550 0.580 0.550 +1.9 -0.2 26.3 N/A N/A 67.6 112
法興 3864 匯豐法興六十二Ａ(@EC) 認購標準 11/12/06 141.88 0.241 0.250 0.250 +35.1 -0.2 57.8 N/A N/A 23.9 3,530

After bottoming at 11-Dec, hsbc's stock price started to climb up,,,

日期開市最高最低收市成交量調整收市價*
2006-12-15 141.00 141.50 140.70 141.40 17,200,732 141.40
2006-12-14 141.00 141.70 140.60 140.70 17,359,540 140.70
2006-12-13 140.60 141.20 140.50 140.60 14,174,605 140.60
2006-12-12 140.90 141.10 140.50 140.90 19,122,966 140.90
2006-12-11 140.50 141.00 140.00 140.30 40,079,176 140.30
2006-12-08 140.70 141.20 140.60 140.90 21,925,460 140.90
2006-12-07 141.50 141.50 140.70 141.10 33,092,820 141.10
2006-12-06 142.00 142.80 141.60 142.20 49,042,276 142.20
2006-12-05 144.20 144.80 144.00 144.60 12,566,556 144.60
2006-12-04 144.00 144.20 143.60 143.60 15,175,993 143.60

作者: FeiJai 時間: 2006-12-19 16:41

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2006-12-18 01:06 PM 發表
Thanks for the comments and responses,,, but you folks' understanding of the price trend and mechanics of hsbc was too simplistic,,,, I have tracked HSBC's price, warrant factors, global performanc ...

Wish you good luck!

作者: skywide 時間: 2006-12-19 17:34

Let's wait, it seems not the right time to buy now.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-21 16:05

My call is still making decent profit,,, today try to buy more but HSBC is too strong around 142,,, no chance to drop further,,,,

My target price for HSBC at the end of 2006 is still +144, let wait and see,,,,

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-27 17:24

Over the past 2 weeks, I keep accumulating HSBC call,,,, now HSBC doing good in UK,,, GOGOGO

HSBC HLDG (LSE:HSBA.L)

Last Trade: 929.50 p
Trade Time: 9:09AM
Change: 5.50 (0.60%)
Prev Close: 924.00
Open: 928.00
Bid: 929.50
Ask: 930.00
1y Target Est: 917.54p

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-27 17:34

Selling all of my Chinese stocks before December really make me crazy,,,

Now holding +140K of HSBC calls,,,, hopefully get +50% profit in coming 2 weeks la to compensate the withering profit,,,

HSBC is doing GREAT in UK now,,,

HSBC HLDG (LSE:HSBA.L)

Last Trade: 934.00 p
Trade Time: 9:19AM
Change: 10.00 (1.08%)
Prev Close: 924.00
Open: 928.00
Bid: 933.50
Ask: 934.00
1y Target Est: 917.54p

作者: FeiJai 時間: 2006-12-28 00:49

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2006-12-27 09:34 AM 發表
Selling all of my Chinese stocks before December really make me crazy,,,

You never know. Perhaps you are better off now by selling off all Chinese shares.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2006-12-28 17:51

today my hsbc call goes up +10%,,, 15K profit on book,,,, but the best is yet to come,,,

作者: leoxi 時間: 2006-12-28 23:14

Lots of short selling going on with HSBC today, over 300million...

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-2 10:34

HSBC went up about 2 dollars since I recommended it,,, no big deal with stock holding, but my calls already went up +15% (+20K profit),,, will take half of the profit when HSBC reaches 145,,,

OVER

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-2 11:02

Good for you

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-2 11:29

thank you,,,

The warrant dealer has placed sizeable short order @ 143.5 [花旗 1357 匯豐花旗七零三購(@EC) 認購標準 29/03/07] after absorbing its call warrants,,, guess hard to break over 143.5 again this afternoon,,,

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-2 11:49

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-1-2 10:34 AM 發表
HSBC went up about 2 dollars since I recommended it,,, no big deal with stock holding, but my calls already went up +15% (+20K profit),,, will take half of the profit when HSBC reaches 145,,,
OVER

Just so so when you consider all H stocks warrants went up 2 or 3 times!!

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-2 12:08

yes,,, but +25K profit with less than 150K input within 2 weeks is not bad,,,

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-2 12:10

Input 150K, Gain 25K in 2 weeks, 17% profit, very well indeed

作者: 東虫 時間: 2007-1-2 12:28

炒5仔輪都係穩陣派.
好似"射三紅"咁.

要大炒就炒國金股.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-2 12:47

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-1-2 12:08 PM 發表
yes,,, but +25K profit with less than 150K input within 2 weeks is not bad,,,

Of course! Congratulations!!

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-2 14:51

引用:

原帖由東虫於 2007-1-2 04:28 AM 發表
炒5仔輪都係穩陣派.
好似"射三紅"咁.

要大炒就炒國金股.

yes,,, but I'm quite conservative

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-2 14:52

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-1-2 04:47 AM 發表

Of course! Congratulations!!

thank you,,,

profit keeps moving up,,, HSBC GOGOGO,,,

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-2 17:09

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-1-2 02:52 PM 發表
thank you,,, profit keeps moving up,,, HSBC GOGOGO,,,

#2628 - GOGOGO!!

作者: mkkwong01 時間: 2007-1-2 18:33

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2006-12-15 09:14 PM 發表
I just bought HSBC call this afternoon,,, it is the real thing to win BIG, not petty IPO drawing for dinner buffet

1. no further bad news for HSBC la,,,

2. no pressure from warrant dea ...

BAD NEWS IS.. HSBC'S SENIOR EXECUTIVE LOST THEIR PERFORMANCE BONUSES BECAUSE HSBC WAS LAGGING BEHIND ALL OTHER EUROPEAN AND UK BANKS. ... WAKE UP!!!

作者: leoxi 時間: 2007-1-2 22:26

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-1-2 05:09 PM 發表

#2628 - GOGOGO!!

Don't forget 2318 and 2328.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-2 23:07

引用:

原帖由 mkkwong01 於 2007-1-2 10:33 AM 發表

BAD NEWS IS.. HSBC'S SENIOR EXECUTIVE LOST THEIR PERFORMANCE BONUSES BECAUSE HSBC WAS LAGGING BEHIND ALL OTHER EUROPEAN AND UK BANKS. ... WAKE UP!!!

It is hardly a surprising news,,, the drop since late November to mid-December already reflect their relatively weak European and American performance la,,,

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-3 01:02

HSBC is performing okay in UK now, tomorrow will open above 144,,,

HSBC HLDG (LSE:HSBA.L) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 939.00
Trade Time: 11:35AM ET
Change: 8.00 (0.86%)
Prev Close: 931.00
Open: 933.50
Bid: 938.50 x 1852400
Ask: 939.00 x 11457300
1y Target Est: N/A

作者: catwolfx 時間: 2007-1-3 10:42

恭喜恭起...
不過我xmas前買1378都唔敢買多..得100000股

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-3 23:42

引用:

原帖由 catwolfx 於 2007-1-3 02:42 AM 發表
恭喜恭起...
不過我xmas前買1378都唔敢買多..得100000股

not bad la,,, I put 4 times more monies into HSBC 1357 call and gets about 3 times your profit,,,, but you should get about 15K profit tomorrow when HSBC reaches +145.5 tomorrow morning,,,,

I will take half of the profit (25-30K) if HSBC sees 145.5,,, and probably hold the rest till maturity,,,,

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-3 23:57

My further comment,,,

my first target will be reached again tomorrow morning,,, probably around +145.5, then take 25-30K profit,,,

Second target is 148-150,,,, I'll probably take the rest of the profit,,, [another 50-60K]

But honestly I do believe that HSBC 2006's performance is far better than all big hongs' reports, I glanced at a few of them and they are extremely conservative [even those suggesting +160 target price],,,

So before the end of March,,, HSBC may break all time high after people cashing in their Chinese stocks and buy the most reliable elephant with its unexpectedly good report on the 2006's 4th quarter,,, And If US interest rate starts dropping,,, the momentum could be enormous,,,,

Time will tell,,, no need to argue,,,

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-4 10:51

引用:

原帖由 leoxi 於 2007-1-2 10:26 PM 發表
Don't forget 2318 and 2328.

Not to mention #1389!

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-4 12:23

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-1-3 11:57 PM 發表
My further comment,,,

my first target will be reached again tomorrow morning,,, probably around +145.5, then take 25-30K profit,,,

Second target is 148-150,,,, I'll probably take the rest of ...

So you think now still be a good time to but HSBC call warrant?? If start to buy-in right now, which warrant have the good will to buy

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-4 14:29

my 1357 la,,, around 1.1 still have 25-50% profit potential to take in coming 2 months,,,

worth medium term holding and cut-loss when hsbc dropped below 143 for 15% losses,,,,

almost no premium, so no manipuation through changing i.v.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-4 15:22

引用:

原帖由 cyberken 於 2007-1-4 12:23 PM 發表
So you think now still be a good time to but HSBC call warrant??

Better to buy PUT!

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-4 15:29 標題: 回復 #42 小花至愛的帖子

hey its sounds great!!! I will have a look of this

止賺位: ?
止蝕位: $143

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-4 16:15

引用:

原帖由 cyberken 於 2007-1-4 03:29 PM 發表
hey its sounds great!!! I will have a look of this

Buy PUT in next few weeks!

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-4 18:17 標題: 回復 #45 peninsula 的帖子

any suggestion???

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-4 18:41

引用:

原帖由 cyberken 於 2007-1-4 06:17 PM 發表
any suggestion???

PUT for #2628.

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-4 18:56

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-1-4 06:41 PM 發表

PUT for #2628.

Good choice

作者: Amanshan 時間: 2007-1-4 19:02

agree. expect it to rise smoothly.

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-4 21:36

引用:

原帖由 Amanshan 於 2007-1-4 07:02 PM 發表
agree. expect it to rise smoothly.

PUT wor. Expect to FALL!!

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-4 21:38

引用:

原帖由 cyberken 於 2007-1-4 06:56 PM 發表
Good choice

Other good ones include PUT for #728, #3328, #1398 and #939.

作者: coolbe 時間: 2007-1-22 11:07

no need to worry about HSBC..HSBC is expanding worldwide, especially in canada and the US. long hold

作者: peninsula 時間: 2007-1-22 11:23

引用:

原帖由 coolbe 於 2007-1-22 11:07 AM 發表
long hold

Everybody knows la!!

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-22 11:49

let me briefly report my situation,,,

Before last Friday, I accumulated +230K unit of 1357,,, averaged @ .83x,,,

I sold +90K last Friday at .87-.88 for +4K profit,,,

Today sold another 68K at 1.08 for +16K profit,,,

Still holding 68K and am prepared to hold till expiry (would cut-win if HSBC drops back to below 144),,,

OVER,,,

[ 本帖最後由小花至愛於 2007-1-22 03:51 AM 編輯 ]

作者: cyberken 時間: 2007-1-22 12:18 標題: 回復 #54 小花至愛的帖子

VERY GOOD INDEED

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-24 07:38

引用:

原帖由 cyberken 於 2007-1-22 04:18 AM 發表
VERY GOOD INDEED

thank you,,,, yesterday I collected some HSBC call and 1 lot near its day low,,,

Look like 941 will reach 80 very soon,,, HSI needs these two giants to reach new height before CNY,,,

作者: golfzenith 時間: 2007-1-25 00:08

At current price HSBC is paying out >4% dividend yield, which means it is quite cheap.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-25 01:51

yes, tonite UK and ADR are doing okay,,, tomorrow will be back to at least the +144 zone, probably testing +145 again

HSBC Holdings PLC
[銀行業 ]
英國  HBC
USD 92.790  1:5  HKD 144.810  472,090  B / S / A  香港  0005
HKD 143.500  20,658,984  B / S / A

作者: golfzenith 時間: 2007-1-27 23:45

如果想買匯豐call輪, 有乜好介紹, 3488可以嗎?

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-28 02:24

honestly,,, even I have taken half profit from my call and the rest is breaking even,,, last week HSI's movement was alarming and UK and ADR were rather disappointing,,,

Better wait and see,,, if you really want to bet a little bit,,, I would suggest my call holding 1357 (could be bought around .8x) for 1-2 week speculation and cut-loss at 15% (or if HSBC dropped below 142),,, It is likely for HSBC to drop near 140 or upward to +146 in coming 1-2 weeks,,, very hard to tell,,,,

作者: golfzenith 時間: 2007-1-28 23:50

looks like 1357 is also another warrant I can consider. My problem is I may not be close enough to monitor the market, so need to set up cut-loss price and selling price before hand. Anyway thanks for your advise.

作者: 小花至愛 時間: 2007-1-29 23:17

Today managed to stand above 142.6, the chart is still okay,,, currently adr is doing okay,,, about 144,,,,

Last Trade: 92.08
Trade Time: 9:58AM ET
Change: 0.64 (0.70%)
Prev Close: 91.44
Open: 91.71
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 102.73

歡迎光臨香港 Xocat Forum 討論區 (http://p.xocat.com/p/)