its coming...

My puts were flying today and DJIF is still down 80
lol

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-12-17 20:33 µoªí

More fall expected. At least 25000.

25,000 !!???  

That would be very nice for me ~~~ !!

lol  

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-12-17 21:19 µoªí

Minimum 25000 but bottom may be 23500.

yeah... maybe... cannot rule that out...
But I am squaring my puts today anyway...
I never try to eat the whole wave...
as long as I can eat some, i am happy...
I am getting some, not much call today, GS
should be announcing their earnings tonight
and should calm the mkt a little...
then I will switch back to puts by Thur at
the latest and BS will annouce their "earnings"
(or loss) on Thur night...

goldman sachs
bear sterns

I was just guessing...
nobody knows anything for sure...

it was just unlucky...

the outlook of china is still good BUT US is now like where we were in 1997...
housing slump causes waves of problems, less earnings for many companies, reduce in consumer spending, etc etc... the last frontline is employment... if this credit crisis hurt employment in US...
bear market for US for sure...

This mesas the less earnings for many Chinese exporters and cause the fall of "rate of growth" (stil growth, but not as fast) of other companies...
That hurt valuations.... so... I am still bearish...

Hope that will work for you... Good luck Bro

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-12-18 21:19 µoªí

It's very hard to WIN the most but easy to lose all. So take profit is always good!

Uncle 4 is adjusting his outlook for HSI (actually, who cares !?)


China is approving more and more QDII products...
some extra support for HSI and CEI next year ?

I think I will increase my CEI puts as CEI approaches
50 days MA.

You have any plans, Pen ?

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-12-18 22:34 µoªí

My cash is waiting to get in at 24000 or below. I think the fall is not over due to continued sub-prime problems globally.

you patientce will be rewarded....

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­ì©«¥Ñ hardcat ©ó 2007-12-19 09:58 µoªí


A while ago, i was always wondering how Uncle 4 could be so bulllish in the stock market in view of the unraveling global financial/banking situation.. either his analysts underestimate/ignoran ...

Some believe that "window dressing" has already begun...
but...
it looks more like "window shopping" to me...

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­ì©«¥Ñ peninsula ©ó 2007-12-19 20:24 µoªí

Looks like bloodbath is unavoidable.

Morgan Stanley Posts Loss After $9.4B 4th-Qtr Writedown, Gets $5B Investment From China

60% of my plan is working... MS's worse than expected write down is a bonus to me... I am waiting for the last 2 bids of news:
BS's result and maybe more control measures from China to pull the markets down further...

I feel than most big investors like Pen yourself won't be interested at HK market unless HSI fall to around 23,000 pts or lower...