若今天也不能收於二萬一, 要應快減持.... 又是一個三頂不破加背馳   

我有 80% 持倉, 但最近升幅很少, 但風險和不明朗增加....

小心、小心...

[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-5-22 02:40 編輯 ]

Finally, still the old saying: Sell in May and walk away,,,

Now touching 10 day MV, let see if 20 day MV (2073x) has support or not, dropping below the next support would be 50 & 100 at around 20200,,, and 150 MV (at 196xx) should have very strong support as it has not been really challenged for years...

Today I turned 13% stock into cash.... be careful folks,,,

Today will probably drop below 20 (MA) [2074x] right from the beginning,,, next resistance will be 50 [MA] 202xx,,,

Be careful folks...

I have been underweighting a bit lately, but my end of day 3988's call could have significant loss if 3988 drops below 3.85 tomorrow



[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-5-24 17:15 編輯 ]

I think all the Chinese banking and insurance stocks will go up next week, either as a rally or pick up the upward trend again after digesting bad news and consolidating,,, they are oversold these few days....

跌市 =/=經濟向壞, just correction or consolidation....

May so far is stagnant with a little down,,, let's hope that Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday would be okay,,, I still hold 65-70% stock....

Recent conditions are:

1. A-share goes up, HK stagnant or down; A-share drops, HK down too....
2. US stagnant or drop, HK follows; US goes up, HK doesn't follow...
3. Asian market goes up, HK doesn't follow; Japan drops, HK follows...
4. Operating data and basic factors of local stocks still looking good....
5. Local market is focusing on small-sized, risky stocks because of the boring index and blue chips...

So our stock's raise have been suppressing since mid-MAY...

My view now is that further moderate correction may not come in MAY or JUNE, index may go up very soon... but the opposite is also likely, with some bad news, HSI may drop greatly...

Now is a crossroad,
A. buy and hope for 23000-25000 in the second half of 2007, or
B. wait for around 19xxx to collect, but dropping below 196xx-197xx will break below 150 MA and inviting the bear...

After index clearance, I think 50 MA and 100MA (at 203xx-202xx) should have very decent support....

Low p/e and solid blue chips should be holding tight... the small adjustment from 210xx to 203xx could be over very soon...


Chart for reference:

Actually this news is positive for the HK market,,, boost QDII,

but very likely
1. A-share goes up, HK stagnant or down; A-share drops, HK down too....

Today 50 & 100 MA were broken instantly,,,

let see if index can close above 100 MA or not...

Big hongs are collecting a lot of stocks lately, now they advise people to collect... XYZ@#$#

財華社香港新聞中心。

證券行名稱/股份名稱/股票代號/新目標價(舊)/新投資評級(舊)/盈利預測。

5月30日。

大摩/中移動(0941-HK)/目標價81.5元/增持/--。

花旗/華潤電力(0836-HK)/目標價17元(14元)/買入/調高2007-09年盈利預測6%。

高盛/利豐(0494-HK)/目標價31.6元(29.8元)/買入(中性)/--。

高盛/渣打(2888-HK)/目標價265元/買入/--。

高盛/粵海投資(0270-HK)/目標價5元(調升16%)/中性/--。

BNP/大家樂(0341-HK)/目標價16.8元/買入/--。

BNP/長實(0001-HK)/目標價125元/買入/--。

BNP/新地(0016-HK)/目標價110元/買入/--。

BNP/恆地(0012-HK)/目標價57.9元/買入/--。

BNP/信置(0083-HK)/目標價19.51元/買入/--。

BNP/新世界發展(0017-HK)/目標價19.5元/買入/--。

BNP/嘉里建設(0683-HK)/目標價39.6元/持有/--。

BNP/恆隆集團(0010-HK)/目標價25.76元/持有/--。

BNP/恆隆地產(0101-HK)/目標價18.2元/減持/--。

Well, get back to above 50MA.... some consolidation around 20400-20600 is needed, and then going up is VERY LIKELY in June and July....

引用:

原帖由 fwu39 於 2007-5-31 02:59 發表
什麽东西不明朗？可否说明一下。

Some factors are gone already,,,, Mainland measure to cool down stock,,, US growth forecast and property market,,,

Around 21000, I advise shorting and cutting win (then expecting to test 150 MA at around 19500), but after careful observation and when HSI dropped near 50MA 203xx, my current suggestion is to collect and wait for +23000....

OVER

Well, today's market is even stronger than my expectation,,,

Next week it is very likely for HSI to get back to 20-day MA at 207xx after consolidation between 20-day MA and 50-day MA....

Now the crucial issue is for A-share to consolidate and not madly going up to invite more stringent central control....

My 6 month HSI target is 23000-25000.... now tighten your seat-belt and be prepared for another big bull in JUNE and JULY...

引用:

原帖由 edison1610 於 2007-5-31 08:36 發表
尋入買入, 今日就賺, 聽日再加注

yes, now already back to 10MA,,, it will test historical high within a couple of days and will stay in higher trading range in mid-June,,,, probably around 21000-22000,,,

OVER

unless it goes back to 4200 or down to below 3200,,, otherwise quite "healthy" & positive

上证指数  3,719 -282.08 (-7.05%)

沪深300 3,563 -240.50 (-6.32%

深证成指 11,745 -687.38 (-5.53%)

Good correction.... hopefully the trading range for 2 main indices to be around 3400 - 4000 would be good for us....

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-6-4 03:20 發表
上证指数  3,719 -282.08 (-7.05%)

沪深300 3,563 -240.50 (-6.32%

深证成指 11,745 -687.38 (-5.53%)

Good correction.... hopefully the trading range for 2 main indice ...

well, decent support around 3400-3500 in the two indices,,,, it is very good for HK stocks...

My expected HSI trading range in mid-June is 21000-22000, now let see if this week can stand firm above 21000 or not...

well, yesterday noon I did seriously contemplate on buying 2823, as a rally is on the way, was just a click away to win big...

Latest remark:

This time going up to 21000 HSI won't fall down, because

1. We only need HSBC to stay at +146 and 941 at +74 to reach 21000,,, both stocks have been consolidating at the current level for 1-2 month and reaching a high trading range is just a matter of time....

2. 6 Chinese banking stocks have been dropping 3-10% from recent high,,, back to mid-May's level would be enough to push up another +200

3. Local interest rate would probably remain stable despite rumour about possible raise,,, property stocks still have room for 5% increase,,,

4. Many industrial stocks have decent p/e and performance, utility stocks are also consolidating for numerous months...

5. Retailing stocks and "internal consumption need" is another area for possible rocketing

My expected mid-June trading range to be 21000-22000....

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-6-6 06:15 發表

Thanks. Really that way?

Well, my past recommendations seldom failed and in mid-June you'll see if I am right or wrong, but chasing now is rather unwise except those haven't raised much like the three giant Chinese banks, 941 and HSBC...

right, the interest rate increase with good business performance is not too negative for the market, especially for Asian market...

Collect good stocks,,,,

引用:

原帖由 ytt 於 2007-6-12 07:31 發表
All of a sudden atmosphere in China and US changed bad.  land auction today also a short term discouragement.  HK market are digesting these bad news.  Once interest rate increasing for China is co ...

x2

I can't accept a stock that can drop more than 10-15% in one day because sometimes I am too busy to even check stock price just once,,,

引用:

原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-6-4 03:08 發表


yes, now already back to 10MA,,, it will test historical high within a couple of days and will stay in higher trading range in mid-June,,,, probably around 21000-22000,,,

OVER

tomorrow HSI will breakthrough 21100, resistance will become support,,,

HSBC and 941 will push up 100-200 index point,,, Chinese banking stocks keep rallying,,, internal consumption and property stocks are redy to move again,,,

Trading range will get higher,,, 21000-22000,,,

And reaching +22500 in the third quarter I will start to take profit, for the time being,,, HOLD good stocks to let profit RUN wild,,,,

My expectation posted previously in another website,,,

發表於 2007-6-6 10:52 AM 資料 短消息  
This time going up to 21000 HSI won't fall down, because

1. We only need HSBC to stay at +146 and 941 at +74 to reach 21000,,, both stocks have been consolidating at the current level for 1-2 month and reaching a high trading range is just a matter of time....

2. 6 Chinese banking stocks have been dropping 3-10% from recent high,,, back to mid-May's level would be enough to push up another +200

3. Local interest rate would probably remain stable despite rumour about possible raise,,, property stocks still have room for 5% increase,,,

4. Many industrial stocks have decent p/e and performance, utility stocks are also consolidating for numerous months...

5. Retailing stocks and "internal consumption need" is another area for possible rocketing

My expected mid-June trading range to be 21000-22000....  



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