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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-6-16 07:31 發表

When will there be a reversal so that I can jump into "UT"?

if there are clear signals for correction and also evidence of big hongs' nasty distribution on good news, then it is possible to put (personally I seldom put or short index,,, and my record was mediocre, 2 win and 1 lose) putting and shorting is a harder game to play than longing and calling for sure....

Putting should not be attempted in June, because a big upward wave is coming, and HK is lagging 5-10% of other market (comparing to Feb. level before the 777 drop), and it is very likely for us to go up 5% (1000) within a week or two...  

[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-6-16 17:06 編輯 ]

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原帖由 ytt 於 2007-6-16 05:35 發表
Brother small flower : Yes I read your column earlier. Your prediction is so accurate

but why 3rd quarter to take profit and not 4th quarter or early 2008 ?

I am taking H shares as the major  ...

thank you,,, I also bought substantial 3988 at 3.8x, 3.9x and 3.7x...

Why not at 4th quarter, just my guess, because I expect late June's index to be around 21500, and +23000 could have a correction from 186xx upward, so more likely to be around the 3rd quarter than in the fourth quarter,,,

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-6-17 12:21 發表

You did better than me on #3988.

when it goes to +4.8 by the end of this year, the difference doesn't really matter

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-6-19 13:01 發表

Why??

Some people like to buy and sell with their expected trading range, others like to hold for longer term for higher gain,,,,

Chinese banking stocks should be searching for new high, if so, then trading range strategy may turn out to be a poor one,,,

Let see if 3988 can go up to +4.2 or not this month,,, and test 4.6 in the third quarter.....

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原帖由 小花至愛 於 2007-6-19 16:26 發表
Some people like to buy and sell with their expected trading range, others like to hold for longer term for higher gain,,,,

Chinese banking stocks should be searching for new high, if so, then trading range strategy may turn out to be a poor one,,,

Let see if 3988 can go up to +4.2 or not this month,,, and test 4.6 in the third quarter.....  

My +90K shares of 3988 are doing fine, these few days I sold 1/4 to take some profit and let the rest run towards my third quarter target price... +4.6

P.S. I sold a few lots of HSBC 2-3 months ago at 145.x and bought +90 lots of 3988 @ 3.7x-3.9x, it turned out to be a VERY correct decision....

[ 本帖最後由 小花至愛 於 2007-7-12 00:00 編輯 ]

I sold 40% stocks yesterday morning and bought 20% afternoon,,, now holding <70% stock...

Market is consolidating above 10MA,,, but 10MA is moving up, now 228xx,,,, tomorrow will be near 22900,,,

If index dropped below 10MA, first sign to be alert
If index dropped below 20MA and 10MA cross 20MA,,, then better just keep defensive stocks,,,