引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-2-28 11:09 發表
28/2/07 Dead hot dog:

Race 1: 無提供
I think 賽馬精神 could not win as usual (a virgin is still a virgin), but he may get a 2233 as the horses are very 水 this time.

Race 2: 川滙主帥
...

No 每日死狗 has won this evening

引用:

原帖由 happycamel 於 2007-3-1 01:20 發表

果然好, 搶首 are my favourite horses(especially the latter horse), because I can always make profit from them, as they are 水马 that attracts betting money. It's simple for me to treat them as lantern in that I make profit by betting on their competitors!

引用:

原帖由 onno1 於 2007-3-1 07:10 發表

賽後我點睇
R2) 7 川滙主帥  質索肯定有,但如其搏牠開胡,不如唔好買好過,轉冷別論!

R5) 6 利 是 鋒  1至2場內頭馬見面!

R6) 3 哲 學 家  到季尾重會有1次勝出或上名機會!

R7) 11 錢途光明   今 ...

有很多馬都被人認定有質素, 可能真的有, 但跑馬是看結果的, 話之你天花龍鳳,身價很高, 贏唔到講乜都無用! 反而有D馬經常被人看低,但牠識贏!

對於馬主來說, 馬匹的身價可能是一種面子,但對於一個圈外的投注人來說,毯的能力才是關鍵! 世紀巨星 肯定不是名門望族, 比上季來的威成,綠色顯男,長驅,億銘之寶等身價天壤之別,但牠已4W,而且次次冰山大冷門,中佢一次夠晒數! 比長買那些次次熱但多數唔得的名氣馬來得實際!

每日死狗 for 4/3/07

Race 1: 駔驍之首
Soumillon had tried his best in getting a winner in the last few races but failed proving that it's either a rubbish horse or a long distance horse needs a prolonged period for getting mature. I think he may not have enough time to get it as he will become dog food before his getting mature
He will continue to come back at the wave-front but still could not win

Race 2: 糖果博士
He seems not to be a good horse but attracts betting money on and off. 2-4 again but hardly win!

Race 3: 工程塑料
Reason 1: distance being shortened 1600 is a little bit difficult for a long distance horse at the end of racing season;
Reason 2: 冼文諾 is a cold jockey only;
Reason 3: He has got a permit to Derby and will definitely reserve his strength for it but not this race.

Race 4: 無提供

Race 5: 大師傅
Reason 1: Although he has won in the last race, he might not have good ability as the standard of the race was not high as the two runner-up were virgin.  
Reason 2: 千萬福星 is too tough that may prevent him from fighting to get into the Quinella in this race!

Race 6: 無提供

Race 7: 皇帝出巡
He may be the 3rd or 4th hottest horse in this race for reason of grand race jockey Mousse riding on him. I think he doesn't have the ability to win at this rating and confrontators carrying the same weight.

Race 8: 無提供

Race 9: 無提供

Race 10: 無提供

駔驍之首, 糖果博士, 工程塑料, 大師傅 all dead

引用:

原帖由 求其 於 2007-3-4 10:31 發表
每日死狗 for 4/3/07

Race 1: 駔驍之首
Soumillon had tried his best in getting a winner in the last few races but failed proving that it's either a rubbish horse or a long distance horse needs a  ...

每日死狗 for 4/3/07 are all out of the first 3 positions!

每日死狗 for 7/3/07

Race 1: 無提供

Race 2: 無提供
At last, I didn't put 驊中龍 on list, but I still worry about his failure to win in this race.
Reason:
a. The standard of his last race waas extremely low;
b. He is to carry 132lb which is too heavy for a young horse;
c. There are quite a lot of challengers:  3 new horses, and horse number 4,11,12 are also have winning ability.  
Good luck to those betting win on him.(I won't do that and will use my betting method in this race)

Race 3: 駕馭
Reason:
a. He seems not to be a good horse and the 2nd runner-up he got in the last race was not of high standard;
b. Odds too low for a horse being a winner in new horse races and defeated 10 times after allocated into normal classes;
c. 文家良 is not a staple that can be relied on. It's one of the most 不正气 staple in HK (LEUNG Ding-wah is another one). Avoiding betting on its odds-on-favourite horses will enhance chance of winning money;

Race 4: 無提供

Race 5: 熊中雄
The horse has run toomuch in this season and its rating seems to be saturated. I think he could come back at 2-6 this race and hardly win again in this season.

Race 6: 高高的
LEUNG Ding-wah is a staple whose hot horses cannot be trusted. 高高的 is a horse with ability,but it's a coming-behind-horse such that it's very easy to lose a race if desired. I will bet on him when the odds is over 10:1

Race 7: 功力勝
It's a semi-virgin (got only 1 win out of 20 races). Moore's staple is at its low tide. He seems to run better at Shatin. I don't think it's worth betting on him at 6:1.

Race 8: 加州巔峯
After four times coming back at the second position, his rating is still at 78 (only 1 point higher than before) showing that the Stewart doesn't weigh him a very good ability. I think he would even lose the first two position this race, as Track A is not suitable for a leading horse to get good performance.

引用:

原帖由 紅豆沙 於 2007-3-7 14:52 發表

你講咁多隻，好似全部都有揀

我未必对的嘛！

引用:

原帖由 細摩 於 2007-3-7 14:53 發表
我貼第三場 (盟友): 因為今季九歲或以上老馬無一隻可以連續兩場走入place

Track A is not suitable for 盟友, as he has only 1500m 气量！(if there were a 1500m distance, he might have got 3-4win)

Tonite I've made history in 死狗, 4 out of my 5 selection won ...I think Changmao has won a lot of money because he always treat me as his lantern

3月10日死狗:

Race 1: 新力高
Reason:
1. Whyte and Moore's effect this season;
2. 新力series are very aggressive that most 新力's will perform well at the first start (eg. 新力度，新力劲，新力升．．．). As 新力高 was the second hottest horse last time but performed badly, I think 新力高 is not a very good horse and no.5,4 and 1 will defeat him tomorrow (especially horses no.5 and no. 4)

Race 2: 連冠精英
He may be the second-third hottest horse tomorrow. It's not worthy betting on a horse which has never got a place at win odds < 8:1. S K Sit is a jockey whose winner seldom < 20:1.

Race 3: 無提供

Race 4: 無提供

Race 5: 常山鎮寶
It's been proved to be a rubbish which always attracts eyes of junior punters or punters never been grown up. It's now class 5 and I think he may have better chance to get places or even a winner later, but based on the principle of never betting on these kind of 常规热死狗, I put him on list again. (Suppose he could get a winner finally, I think I have got several success in predicting him as 热死狗 already la)

Race 6: 無提供

Race 7: 勝利鑽石
Put him on list again (I have done this 3-4 times after I established this thread this season, and it has proved that I am right to do so). I think he may come back at 2-5 but still could not win.

Race 8: 無提供

Race 9: 無提供

Race 10: 高點
It's dangerous to bet on a virgin horse whose win odds may change from 40:1 to around 6:1.

Race 11: 無提供


Race 8

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-10 09:36 發表


我覺得幾好 chance ，因為上次跑得唔差而分齡減磅好著數。

Dead already

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-11 17:01 發表


但都跑得幾好 wor ...  

deleted...(accidentally posted for 2 times)

[ 本帖最後由 求其 於 2007-3-11 21:43 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-11 17:01 發表


但都跑得幾好 wor ...  

Yes,
My point of view:
马主 of ＂新力＂系，＂常山＂系，＂钢＂系（＂出奇＂马主），＂箭＂系＂，必Ｘ勝＂系 are all of very good sport spirit, as we ca see most horses of them will try their best in getting the best position, even at the first start. (eg.  新力度，新力升，钢力，出奇，常山名驹，常山多宝，银箭，most 必Ｘ勝...).

Therefore, if a horse of them has run 2-3 starts, came back closely but couldn't win, I would assume the horse may not be a good horse. If after many races that it still being a virgin, I would 睇死 the horse.
Prominant examples are 常山镇宝， 必永勝. I put them on my dead dog list already!
For this 新力, maybe it's too early to certify him. I will keep my eyes on him and I thik I could come to a solid conclusion within 3-4 races.

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-12 08:57 發表
我覺得熱門才可冠以死狗的Title，如果無飛如最近的必永勝、常山是沒必要的。有些馬不是死狗，但局限於跑法是很難很難出頭，例如：甜心、非我莫屬.... 通常都會有1W多P，勝利鑽石亦如是 ... 但收Place也很好。

When I put 必永勝 on list, he was the odds on favorite!
常山 was also among the hottest horses in the races, the principle of setting up 热死狗 is to spot the horses (should be the third few hottest horses in a race) that are too hot (relative to his reasonable odds ought to have been),  常山 is always a horse that carries betting money beyond his ability. I think he should beyond 20:1, but he always become the hottest forst 3 horses. Last time he's 7:1, came back at 4th, money betting on him being shared by the smarter punters again

I put 勝利鑽石 on list is to tell all of you I bet him could not win but may come back 2-4(You can se it in my reminder for him). My point is: Risk in horse racing is extremely high, avoid betting W on some horses like 勝利鑽石 is on the other hand a profit making process. To pick up horses hardly to win like 勝利鑽石,  必永勝, 抢首 is surely the aim of 每日死狗.

I hope you could give us more input regarding this topic, thank you very much!

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-14 00:26 發表
如果有個topic係每日冷狗，我會盡力提供，因為我最喜歡捉冷狗。

上周末有爪皇就不怕捉不到家福了。

好的，捉到大冷狗跟捉到热死狗在赌钱的意义上是同样重要！

As I couldn't see the starter and somebody was accompanying me yesterday afternoon, I hadn't posted the 每日死狗 for yesterdy's meeting...

If I had done it, I would have surely posted 有志者 as one of the 热死狗. 有志者 may always be on my list if he keeps on participating distance below 1800m. I think he is a Class 3 horse whose best distances should be over 2000m, and his best way for him should be leading in front of the huddles.
My opinion: His capacity（气量）has not yet been trained up but 天生速度 is higher than that of the horses in the same rating group, therefore he can always lead in front the hudde, come back at the front huddle but couldn't win. Hopefully he could catch up in time, otherwise he might turn into a piece of pedegree (dog cake) before he get his virgin win.

14/3/07 Dead hot dog:

Race 1: 無提供

Race 2: 無提供

Race 3: 工兵
I anticipate it will become the second to third hottest horse ultimately. It is a horse who hasn't proved himself any ability of winning a race, but will always attract large amount of betting money.

Race 4: 威勁多
Just like 威成，长躯，绿色显男，it's an expensive horse who proves that money is not neccesary related to quality/ability. I anticipate it will become the odds on favourite in this race, but still come back at most 3344 again!

Race 5: 無提供

Race 6: 無提供

Race 7: 無提供

Race 8: withdrawn
I'd put 爆炸 on list, as I anticipate tomorrow might be a rainy day and the going might be yielding to soft which is benefitial to 爆炸. I unlist him but will not bet on him still. I do think he wouldn't perform very good tomorrow. A derby winner should be well prepared since the beginning of the season, therefore I don't think his staple has been well preparing for it.

Race 9: 無提供

Race 10: 牛精財星
It's not a good horse, but it has become a 名气马 like 糖果博士 whose 名气 has overtaken his racing ability. Put him on list again!

[ 本帖最後由 求其 於 2007-3-17 14:54 編輯 ]

For Brother KMY 評大熱死狗, my opinion:

Race 5 - 御名燈 is improving much, the only thing to worry about is the 幕后鬥志。名燈series is always hard to predict!

Race 6 - 富士晨曦 - 班分已盡，Place 都無。
Agree and support!

Race 8 - 俊歡騰 - he's aminig at becoming a 配种马 with higher 配种价. I'm just worry about the turf being yielding which may affect its performance(and enhance that of Staney Ho's horse, otherwise he would win


冷狗：
馬主叻(9.2倍) 、 同一夢想 (10倍)

I think 馬主叻 could at most get a 3344, 同一夢想 will come back at position out of the first three!

[ 本帖最後由 求其 於 2007-3-18 14:10 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-18 14:11 發表


Big fish said Stanley paid $500,000 to the jockey for ride one race, and use his private jet ...

Don't worry, brother, Stanley is  82 years old already, his last chance this time.

Maybe a rainy day would help him finish his dream. I wouldn't bet on this race anyway.

引用:

原帖由 CHANGMAO 於 2007-3-18 14:54 發表


又威成又绿色显男，你都好串喎!

隻果然好由KMY同细摩去布吉玩之後嗰日出到家下都未好過, 加埋隻東威之星年中可以慳埋唔少

威成,绿色显男, 威劲多 and 长驹 are similar in that they are very expensive,hardly win or never win horses entering HK recently...

引用:

原帖由 KMY89 於 2007-3-18 14:14 發表
冷狗：

I have confident in these 2 horse, and don't thi ...

It further proves that: Its not worthy betting on virgin horses, especially those virgin who have run 3-6, or seemed to have good performance but not won last time, and become 众人冷门 or 半热门 this time. The percentage of failure is quite high!

It also supports my continuous putting 牛精財星 on the list. In my eyes, he's already a 逢出必热而必输马, I won't postpone putting him onlist until he could get a W

Dear all, Money doesn't mean quality, but quality means money!

[ 本帖最後由 求其 於 2007-3-19 17:22 編輯 ]

21/3/07 Dead hot dog:

Race 1: 威霸龍
It is not a real splinter but a miler, but due to lacking of 气量 to run 1400-1600, he could always run in front the huddles and get 3344 if lucky. He's now the odds on favourite in this race(May be due to the reason of O Doleuze riding on him). I think it's not worthy betting on his W. I anticipate he could come back at 3-6.
   
Race 2: 盈峰
He's now the third hottest horse in this race and maybe even get hotter tommorrow night. It's a rubbish! Don't alter your mind by the performance in his last race. I anticipate he will retire within this season without getting a W or any P.

Race 3: 無提供

Race 4: 第一好運
He may be among the hottest horses in Race 4. I don't think he could win, or even get a P in this race. He needs reduction of marks by 8-10 before he could have chance to get a W

Race 5: 威霸熊
久沉马+热门, the best choice of 死狗 to be listed. He may come back at 3344 at most and could not win.

Race 6: 無提供

Race 7: 我來也
久沉+热门, He seems to awake but still not a good choice to focus on. He is a HV expert but is not worthy to be the oddson favourite in race. I anticipate he may come back at 2-4 but still could not win.

Race 8: 無提供
金同德 is a new born HV expert at 1000-1200 distances. It's dangerous to bet him to lose this race. But I am a liitle bit worry about he's running too much these month, and the confrontators are much more tough than ever. I think the chance of his winning in this race is just ~40%, and that of his getting into a runner-up is ~80%. I do think some horses may beaten him to 1st or 2nd runner-up. They may be 幸運精英,極奇妙,魅力漢子,一號種籽,創惑?!

没有把金同德上LIST，是尊重他4W的佳绩，但今次是有隐忧的：
金同德赢了换人，今次的杜鹏志不是热人，金同德今次可能会热死！上次赢威威之星，是不错的马，但未必很好，因为前次很尽都输给何良的一匹缩程跑HV1000的沙田1400-1600大冷马祥胜奇驹，实力不会太高！
創惑现在是十多倍，临场总有7-8倍以上的，它赛绩一样很好，JOCKEY又是金同德上次的赢出者哩！

[ 本帖最後由 求其 於 2007-3-21 18:08 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 billchan 於 2007-3-21 16:54 發表


   貼完 Race 1: 威霸龍 place 上博友榜，先至睇到 求其兄今晚將此狗入榜，希望牠有 3 3 唔好 4 4 啦！

On your side, I hope my prediction goes wrong...
In my point of view, I think he is a 一里马，有速度但一直没有贯注力（气量），所以跑长一点又输最后一百，改过来对手差一点的快活谷跑短途是对的，但他不是真正短途马，小弟觉得他几难赢了，但2-5名就唔难囖！