HSI has broken the 10-week avearge line today (at 22,127) and at the same time the 50-day line (at 21,931) has also been broken, with the lowest at 21,917. However, HSI rebound after touching the 50-day line, so as I suggested yesterday 50-day average could still serve as the short term support.

I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the recent drop of Dow. Whether Federal Reserve will cut the rate within this year is a very important factor to determine the trend of Dow.

I guess tomorrow HSI will also rebound to fill the gap produced today.

Your view please ??

Dow still fluctuate a lot at its start. However, Yen go back to 117.89. 10 year bond yield jumps 0.024. All these indicators suggests Dow is very likely to have a rebound tonight waiting for the comments and the decision of Federal Reserve.

I have observed Dow for 1.5 hours tonight, and noticed that there were still some pressure/little buying force at the top, but it is very good that when Dow touch the negative region, it will rebound and turn positve again.

After a big drop in the last week, Dow seems to recover from a "big flu", and it takes time for it to achieve full recovery, anyway it will be better later. Hopefully Dow will have at least some gain tonight, so HSI will have a rebound tomorrow

Please also note that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. filed for bankruptcy protection tonight, so the credit concern raised again and erased Dow early gain.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-6 22:59 發表



Yes,

Yes, I agree. Sub-prime is actually not a very very big issue that could make the whole US economy to the downside, as mentioned in the last Feb, but of course if this issue can't be tackled in a sensible way it could lead to many other problems. Anyway, good to see that Dow really rebound and up 280 points.

Yesterday even the investment banks such as Bear Stearn also rebound by more than 5%. However, the market might over-estimate the remedial action possibly taken by the Federal Reserve or the US government for the credit risk.

Let's see how HSI react today.

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-7 00:18 發表




Yes, it is.  I hope so too.  Dow needs time to recover its previous loss. Home Mortgage problem is not that big to affect whole US.  In Reuter said, there are less 5% owners who are not abl ...

HSI still haven't fully recovered from a flu. Taiwan drop, Nikkel nearly level. I suppose HSI will go up again in the afternoon trading session.

It is really out of our expectation that HSI still need to drop even if Dow rise more than 280 points which is the highest gain since 2003. Please also note that there is a "Massacre" in the small stocks market and most of the small stocks drop at least 10-20% (261, 245 & 648 for example). It seems that the hedge fund is taking profit everywhere and lead the drop. Owing to the fact that HSCEI is rising too quickly in the past few months, so the comparatively bigger drop in HSCEI is reasonable as the big crocodile buy the HSCEI chips at a relatively low price (such as 1800 & 2328). They could still earn a lot even if they throw to the market now.

My prediction is that HSI could still hold the 50-day line (same as HSCEI), but tonight is a very crucial moment to determine the pace of the US market as Federal Reserve might give some hints to the market whether or not the rate cut will happen soon (the market was disappointed with the strong economic data tonight).

My another observation is that some of the relatively weak blue chips could still hold the 100-day line (except 17).  However, 941 and 2628 is still strong and haven't touched the 50-day line.

Let see whether HSI need to go to another support at 21,301 (i.e. 20-week avearge line which is away from the present position by around 600 points). If so, HSI will fall around 2,000 points from the recent peak, which records a 8.5% drop. (in last Feb a 11% drop was recorded)

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-7 22:15 編輯 ]

Thank you very much as well for your quality comments !

Yes, I cannot agree with you more. The market fluctuated too much and investors really need to bear their own risks if they intend to buy something at this moment. Choosing some of the "good and quality" blue chips at this moment would be safe as you could keep it for a long time until it come back to your home price.

Back to the statement made by the Federal, in its brief document Sub-prime's matters haven't been commented. However, the memebers of the open committee agreed that

"Financial markets have been volatile in recent weeks, credit conditions have become tighter for some households and businesses, and the housing correction is ongoing. Nevertheless, the economy seems likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters, supported by solid growth in employment and incomes and a robust global economy"

If they are correct, credit concern will not pose significant threat to the economy, so Dow first down 120 points after the statement and up again by around 130 points (because of the good outlook of the economy even with credit risk). Rise in commodity price (e.g. oil) is still a big concern to create inflation (however, not the code CPI which is calculated without counting enery and food).

After the release of rate unchanged, the bond yield return to a "quite normal" level. Yen is still okay trading in the range of 118.5 to 118.9.

I guess HSI will have a "real" rebound today.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 00:33 發表



Thanks for your information.
During correction at this time, no matter how good Dow doing unless Dow up roll up big 2 days in a road; otherwise, HK market still going downward.

US up, the ...

A good and strong rebound today, that's excellent ! Other Asian market also have a good U turn today.

As I could observe that the uptrend of HSI is leaded by 941 and 5, I do think the rise today is healthy. I don't think the gain will be erased this afternoon. Haha

(Dear 3a4b5c6c, sorry i can't reply to you right now. I will give you some response after work today. )

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 10:25 發表



Yes, it is a rebound this morning.
What I meant recently, if Dow getting downward and HK would follow down trend and even deeper.  This is always the trend during correction in HK.

Correc ...

We really have a very good day this afternoon ! Tonight, Dow is up 80 points, it seems that Dow continue to rebound after its previous 280 points rise on Monday.

For HSI, even if the turnover today is comparatively small, it would still be okay as a lot of investors are still observing the market and hence small turnover. According to my experience, if they could confirm the recent correction has finished, the turnover will be bigger and push the HSI further up.

But of course, negative factors are still there in the market. It is really very difficult to say whether the correction has finished or not. It takes at least one or two day more before we could have a conclusion on the direcion of the market. However, at least, we know the Federal Reserve is still optimistic about the moderate growth of US economy even with the credit risk and other concern.

The gap (at around 22,240 to 22,640) produced by the drop on Monday was filled today. The upper resistance should be at around 23,240. And of course for the down side, I still think that 50-day line (at 21,999) could still serve a good support at the moment.

Dear my friends, we need to get prepared and plan for what should we do (buy or sell) in different situation, as the direction of HSI is still unclear.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 13:38 發表



Yes, market looks good today, I hope both 941 & 5 can lead market all the way up and the correction is over.  But we still have to be caution as well; better to wait for see for 2 more da ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 22:53 編輯 ]

3a4b5c6c, you are also an experienced investor !! You are right.

For me to have an example of the pattern, just imagine a ball falling from a high position, it will have a very steep fall and then rebound, and fall again, so and so forth.

However, within rebound and fall, if you could take the right time, you could earn some money at least (for example I have bought 291 yesterday at 29.55 and sell at 30.35 today with a net profit of $1,100 {because i have a price in mind how much I earn will make myself happy so I will sell immediately without haste if reaching that target}, even if the profit is small, but i am still very happy with it). Therefore, the trend of the market need our frequent observation.

Trap and risk are always there in the market, more observation in the market will make you more confidence to determine the HSI future movement.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:07 發表




Totally correct, I am also thinking of the same way.
From past experience, big guy will push up HSI close to 23000, then pull down to 22000.  Back and forth for  couple times,  ...

You are exactly right !! When I invested in every stock, I always have a target price in mind, the price that could make you feel happy, haha (sometime it is really $1000 or $10,000) !!

However, during the fluctuated market, even you earn $1,000 it is still somehow difficult. For me I will have a list of good blue chips to monitor, if those chips fall to a unreasonable price, I will buy it for short term and earn some money (such as 291). If it really fall below your buying price, that's fine because you could keep it as it is good in nature.

By the way, 3a4b5c6c, you should be very experienced. I don't have experience in trading the US market (even if several months ago I wish to buy the stock Apple before its release of I-phone). I will monitor the US market and some of its stocks only !! I still have lesson with Dow and HSI everyday (and of course other markets such as European markets and Asian market)!!

Please share with me and other friends here more !! I am not as experienced as you do as I join the game at the time when HSI is at around 11,000.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-8 23:40 發表



Exactly what we supposed to do during this pattern if I guessed it right.  Since big guys do this everytime.  

Whatever you do, just feel comfort is okay, no matter how much you made $1000 ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-8 23:56 編輯 ]

3a4b5c6c, you are really a verteran investor. I admire you so much because of your experience in the US market. By the way, thanks for your kindest help in offering me advice on the US individual stocks. Actually, i am more intersted in trading stocks in the HK market since I also don't wish to sleep with high tension (otherwise will have no energy to work during the day time). Anyway, if that need arises, I will seek for your suggestion for sure.

Back to the discussion in the market, as I mentioned in my previous post, we still need to observe the market for a few days before we could confirm the correction has finished. Yesterday we have filled the gap produced on Monday. After filling the gap, the index going up or down is still an uncertainty. But now it seems that HSI really need to test the strength of 50-day line tomorrow.

It is really not a good news that BNP was one of the victims in subprime crisis. The market is now thinking that more and more other investing banks will come out and admit that they are affected by the credit crisis too. Thus, the european market, especially BNP's home country - CAC, fall more than 2%, while Dow drop around 1.5%. However, it is really praiseworthy for the very fast reaction of Euro Bank to stable the credit market.

In my point of view, I still buy the comments given by the Federal Reserve that US economy will not be seriously affected by the subprime concern and will continue to have moderate growth. Most of the big US companies still have a good bi-annual result. I think if the market drop to a certain level (i don't think it is substantially away from the present position) the fund managers and other investors will come out and buy to support the market.

It is challenging to predict whether Yen will go down to 115 or not. In recent days it is traded within a range of 117.8X to 119.7X. We should see whether Yen could break 118 and stand at around 117.8 first. Please note that BOJ will determine the rate decision again on 22 & 23 August. Some say that BOJ will rise the interest this time and some say that BOJ will not raise the rate because of instable political atmosphere. Therefore this incoming meeting is very important to determine the trend of the US and HSI market. (Note: In the last two rise in the BOJ's interest, the market drop signifcantly afterwards)

Be careful in trading !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 00:23 發表



Yes, should hold some potential blue chips for long run, it will be big winner.
I am holding some good blue chip and potential stocks such as 941, 2628, 3993, 1800, 939, 5 yrs later, its wou ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-9 22:34 編輯 ]

Thank you very much for your good comments on me, 3a4b5c6c !! I am still a little kid in the market. Let's share with other friends here more.

I love your clarification of "drop narrowing", 3a4b5c6c. It is true indeed !! The whole August is actually a challenging month to do the investment (July and August is usually the month with a lot of fluctuation as in the past years). Pending the BOJ's rate decision on 23 August, as mentioned before, is very important to decide the direction of the market.

Haha, let me remind all of our friends here of the incoming QDII money. It seems that the hot "red money" will come at the earliest in late August and September. Everyone seems to forget all the good news during a downside market.

As in the past years, after we go through the "challening" August, we will see another record high again in the late 3rd quater and the 4th quater of 2007.

Dow only drop 117 points now, Good !! Are they expecting Federal Reserve will do something to remedy the market ?? Haha !! Likely that the US economy is still in a good shape !! Hopefully Dow will not be pulled down again during the last half an hour.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-9 22:55 發表




Thanks for your comment, I am appreicated to hear that since I am not an expert on market, but thanks anyway.  Surely you may ask for specific US stock since I do know some and also many of ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 00:16 編輯 ]

I sell Espirt this morning at 104.8 (at 9:50) which I bought on last Friday because I afraid that Dow will drop further today. Anyway, I still have little profit to earn by selling that.

You are so brave to buy some stocks today. For me now I will switch to buy some conservative stock (such as 1398) if it fall to my target buying price. Haha !

Will share with you more tonight !

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 11:03 發表




That truth QDII is coming soon, will lead the market up.

Dow dropped 387 pts last night, and caused HK over 700 pts.  I bought some shares this morning

Yes, I don't wish to expose myself to too high risk in this kind of market. Just watch, buy and sell to earn some to cover the loss in others. I am pleased also to know that you have sold your stocks today and made some profit.

Federal Reserve pour another 19 billions tonight to the market to ease the credit contraction. Perhaps Benerake need to jump out and say something to make the market feel more comfortable, instead of releasing more and more reserve to the market. Otherwise Dow at 13,000 could not hold as the atmosphere in the market is too bad, even if the US economy is still healthy.

Drop in the Europeran Markets were horrible before 9:00 tonight and Yen jump to 117.3X.

The market is still very bad so I don't advise to hold many stocks overnight but for long term investment one could start to collect some quality stocks (of course steps by steps, not in one goal).

For HK, 50-day line really can't hold so the next target is the 20-week average which is 21,295 and the 100-day line which is at 21,201. These two line in my point of view could provide stronger support at this stage. (941 finally touch the 50-day line today).

If Federal Reserve do nothing at this stage, I can't see a strong rebound will be incoming within these few days.

Take care, friends.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 20:24 發表



Good to make some profit and run.
The stock I bought this morning and sold all before lunch, made 15% profit on this day trade today.  At least cover some of my loss in this correction.

Hahaha, you are right !! 150 day line is important as the drop in last Feb also drop to 150-day line and rebound. Another reference is the drop in June/July of 2006, at that time HSI break the 250-day line and rebound.

Federal Reserve and other central banks should take the remedial action immediately otherwise the whole economy will collapse. Federal Reserve perhaps might need to cut the rate if the market is really very weak.

21,000 is the starting point of the present ride. Previously that point is with very high resistance, but now serve as the supporting point. If drop to 21,000, the total drop is 2,500 points (around 10%), that would be enough I suppose.

Yes, collecting some good quality stocks (for me I will buy 1398).

Good luck and take care !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 22:33 發表



Global market is still pretty fluctuated today; Yen is up to 117.74 now; We can see Central bank in europe and US are trying to save markets; I think the market will be steady soon otherwise, ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-10 22:48 編輯 ]

Woh, your investment profolios are all good stocks !! You are really a professional investor.

I used to hold 388 (buy at around $58) as my long term investment but thrown already in last two months after the speedy ride.

Just wish to inform you that Federal Reserve has injected another 16 billions to the liquity to save the market, so Yen now get back to 117.9X.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 23:06 發表



Totally right and agreed.  Always same pt to you.
1398 is a good one.

I long hold on 2628, 941, 3993, 1800, 939, 2689
6~12 months : 753, 694, 1898
Risky: related call warrant (2628, 939)

Actually all of the stocks you are now holding are of high quality. It is really unexpected that 2823 could jump to $21X, but anyway it is very good to know that you buy it at a low price and sell it with a considerable profit.

388 is actually a very good quality stock but most of the people think that it is too expensive (both in terms of price and P/E). Anyway the trend of 388 is sometime unpredictable. I am also waiting now for a price that could attract me to buy it again.

Back to the discussion in the market, it is good to see that Dow recovered most of its loss in the beginning and closed with a loss of around 30 points. However, recently I observed that the big crocodiles will make some changes to Dow only after the close of the european market, so last night Dow can't help the european market to get back the significant loss.

However, there are still a lot of uncertainties and bad news in the market. It is now very difficult to predict the trend of the market, unless Ben Benanke jump out and give the market some hints that rate could possibly be cut in the near future.

Federal Reserve pumped so much money into the market in these few days, and this action could imply that the situation in the market is really worst. We need to be alert of this !! Subprime crisis was identified for the first time in last Februray and at that time the problem was confined to several subprime companies. Nonetheless, this time it is now posing substantial threat to the market's liquity and other investment banks. In my point of view, the sitation now is more worst than the previous one we have in Feb (At least at that time, Federal Reserve haven't pumped money into the maret to hold the liquity healthy).

We need to keep close monitoring to the market and trade with caution !

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-10 23:20 發表



Federal Reserve needed to pump in more money to save market is a must; no country can afford another big crash in the market, it takes several years to cover especially US economic is not tha ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-11 20:56 編輯 ]

Yes, even if you have time on Monday, try to avoid day trade that day as we need to observe the performance of Dow and other european market first. As you said, the remedial action performed by the Federal Reserve might make the market even worst.

Haha, if your friends are experienced traders then you could listen to their advice to sell some of your stocks first. In my point of view, at the present time I will try to lose my weight in the stock market.

Friends around me also think that the market is very worst and another 1997 or 2000 disaster is incoming !! However, I just wish to tell you that they actually have very finite knowledge in stock investment. Some of them even ask me when is the trading time of the HK market !! MY GOD !!!

Therefore, in my point of view, HSI is still very healthy with a P/E of around 16. Our mastermind (China) will help (or they need our help for Shanghai and Shenzhen ??) to further develop the HK market. There is no major change in the economic indicators and factors in HK comparing to the past months (No, I am wrong, we have more positive news comparing to the past months -- QDII).

If everyone around you, especially those who are very little experiences, tell you that the market will collapse, it might be a good time for the experienced investor to buy some of the good quality stocks steps by steps.

Take care

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-12 01:49 發表



Stock and market are always unpredictable.  2823 & 388 are over for us now.  We have another game on hand.

As per your view, some people feel it is good Federal Reserve pumped in more  ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-12 12:50 編輯 ]

Haha, yes ar !! the market is actually based on mentality and the atmosphere. However, sometimes of course we need to back to the basic. Such as some small stocks with several thousands P/E (such as 858), I will not buy that even the atomsphere is good at that time

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-12 15:32 發表

Market P/E is healthy but no the mentality. Sometimes, it is more psychological rather than REAL.

It seems that BOJ will probably not to raise the interest rate at its meeting this month. That would be very good !! However, stepping into the european time zone, Yen go up from 118.1X to 117.89. However, the european markets are still rebounding and Dow Futures up around 70 points. Is there any trap out there ??

Below is the extract from bloombery.

"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economic growth slowed more than economists forecast in the second quarter, making it less likely the central bank will raise interest rates next week after a global credit crunch."

"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank injected cash into the euro-area money market for a third trading day to avert a credit crunch.

The bank loaned 47.665 billion euros ($65 billion) to banks to support ``the normalization of conditions in the money market,'' the Frankfurt-based central bank said in a statement. The ECB ``notes that money market conditions are normalizing and that the supply of aggregate liquidity is ample.''"


Is the situation still bad to the level that ECB need to take the remedial action for the third day ?? The european market are now rebounding. Do the investors underestimate the severity of the credit crisis but ECB could predict what is going to happen??

Yes, I agree. Just pumping money into the market will not help. The ECB should find out the problem and think of some ways to solve it. For US, if federal reserve could cut the rate, at least the submprime tension will be lessened.

Yes, Dow today perhaps is just a rebound, and the following days will be crucial for us to determine whether the correction is over. Hope that no more bad news about subprime from other investing bank will come out again. However, the problem is always there if that haven't been solved. (In Feb 2007 we have the subprime problem, but haven't solved it and the market's focus was then M&A, and now the problem appears again this month)

Actually today the economic data of Japan give us a likely scenario that BOJ will not raise interest this month. This is actually a very positive news. However, Yen haven't been off to 119.XX. During European trading time, it even jump to near 117.9X region. It is quite strange indeed !! Perhaps Yen will go up again !!

I remember that last month when BOJ declared that the interest rate will be unchanged, Yen stand at 120.XX and haven't dropped back to 123.XX. One week afterward, then Yen jump to 119 and then 118 !!!

Other currency just as Euro/US and Pound/US are still very weak. 10 year US bond yield is still at 4.8XX, with a price of near 100. We need to be alert of that.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 21:21 發表




I think Europe market is not problem on this impact, very minority.
I heard a news that Federal Reserve had review the report from most of the fund house in last weekend, and decided to ta ...

I agree with you prefectly !! Therefore, as I said before if those inexperienced investors or friends tell you to sell your stocks because economic crisis is coming, then we could start to collect some of the good quality stock.

Only if the investors forget about risk and say which is the next target of HSI, big drop will occur. The present wave of drop also start from the same date when the HSI break from its record high.

引用:

原帖由 nonhuman 於 2007-8-13 21:48 發表
Conspiracy: Every time there is financial Storm, Some good asset must be sold in undervalue price. Bankers can then "buy" the cheap asset. At the same time, rape the stock market. After f ...

50-day line today is at 22093. If Dow keep going up tonight, at least trading in the positive region, we might have chance to go back to 50-day line tomorrow. However, going back to 50-day line doesn't mean the correction is over.

Actually HSI going back to 50-day line might just filled the gap produced in last Friday, and then find the bottom again (100-day line at 21,230 ??). Indeed, HSI is still trade in the decending trend channel.

Only if HSI could break the resistance at 22,770 with a reasonable turnover, we could confirm that HSI escape from a crisis

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 22:26 編輯 ]