Excellent. Your interpretation and description is very good. I can't agree with you more

Yen now trade near 118.40, Good ! hope it could drop back above 119.

By the way, I know that your beloved 3993 will become the chips under HKCEI next month. Good !! My 998 (actually it is a very bad stock with no good performance) will also become one of the members too !!

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 22:47 發表



All the facts are being put on the table.
1. interest rate in Japan is cleared which is a good news, carry trade is coming less effect now
2. ECB is fully support Europe market, and won't s ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-13 23:33 編輯 ]

At the very beginning of the IPO of 998, I have lots of expectation of this stock - Small commercial bank, fast growth etc. However, finally i discover that the market look down upon on 998 because of its high P/E (really ??) or other reasons. Anyway, I was trapped now by 998 but luckily the money trapped in it is not very much. I could still wait and see more. It is because all the bank will have a tax relief from 33% to 25% because of the tax reformation (i don't know whether other investors remember this >??)

I love 1398 very much, and will consider to buy that after I escape from 998 (I don't wish to have overlap in my investment portifolios)

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-13 23:57 發表




For both 3993 & 998 become HKCEI next month, that is good, at least can stimulate the stocks for while.
For bank stock, I don't know why you picked 998, but some are doing better now a ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-14 00:19 編輯 ]

Yes, i really need to take my time on 998.

Yes, I recently understand the reason of buying those stocks who are the leaders in that industries. Such as buying the property related stock in China, I will choose 688.

For the market, it is still unstable. Better than expected PPI might disappoint the market. However, core PPI is okay. Let's wait for the result of CPI.

Dow was weighted by Wal Mart and Home Depot tonight because of disappointing outlook.

For HK, it is a very boring market (actually all the markets in the world is bored today except China). I still take my previous analysis for reference at the moment.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-14 00:56 發表



I know what you meant.  It is okay with small amount of investment on 998, take your time and wait for it rises with whole bank sector later.

In the investment, always try to hold with the ...

Dow was down 200 points yesterday, leading to another big drops in the Asian market. The situation is quite worst here today in Asia, Jakarta Composite was down 6.4%, Straits Times 3.35%, Taiwan 3.57%. Yen is very strong and go to 116.69 now. Let see how is the CPI tonight.

HSI will soon drop to the support at 100-day line (21,281). Luckily the turnover today is not very big. It really depends on whether Dow could hold 13,000 tonight with a resonable CPI to determine the performance of HSI tomorrow. FTSE, CAC and DAX drop more than 1% now.

Haha, you need to be careful ar, 3a4b5c6c, the market is still not stable.

Yes, strong Yen will weight the market. However, very luckily that Dow has reached 13,000 and there should be some support there. I share with you some of my observation before to support my thinking.

I remember when Dow was still at around 11,200 (1.5 or 2 years ago ??) and encounter strong resistance. I dropped very quickly and finally find the bottom at 10,000, and rebound very quick and back to 11,000.

Another example is that as long as I remember when Dow 12,8XX in last Feburary, it encounter strong resistance there and drop very quickly and touch 12,000. Finally it found support at 12,000 and rebound very quickly to 13,7XX.

Therefore, my thinking is that don't underestimate the support at 13,000. It might provide Dow some support. (this could not be applied in HK market)

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-15 19:21 發表




HSI really depends on how many more bad news coming from around the world.
21200 could be supportive line, but doesn't seem strong now, could down to 20800 soon.  Since JPY getting strong, ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-15 23:31 編輯 ]

Good strategy to follow !! You must be a wise investor !!

Dow break the support at 13,000. We will have trobule again today !!

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原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-16 00:29 發表



Yes, that's right, market is not stable yet.  HK has been impacted by global market always.

Why I started to buy stocks now even the market is still unstable
I assumed first supportive li ...

The housing data released tonight suggested that the housing market is deteroriating. However, luckily Federal Reserve has pumped in 5 billion dollars tonight and make the Dow Future recovered from its drop of 160 points in the early session. Wiill Federal Reserve pump in more money after the openning bell ??

Even if all the central banks pumped in so many money into the market before, the Yen still go up to a very high level. At around 7 pm tonight, it even reaches 113.60, so horrible !!!

Another bad news tonight is that St. Louis Federal Reserve President William Poole said that the recent market correction had not undermined the economy and he saw no need for a immediate rate cut. Oh, my god !!

Hong Kong market is too bad today, breaking the 100 and 150 day-line on the same day !! The only support is now at the bull and the bear 250 day-line which is now at 19,821, only around 800 points away from the present position. If Dow still have a big drop tonight, we might reach tomorrow !! . Please note that we haven't touched this line since June 2006.

For the time being, friends should be alert and trade with caution.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-16 21:16 編輯 ]

Federal Reserve add in 12 Billions dollars in the market again after the openning bell. Dow only drop around 50 points now. Yen is at 114.70

Yes, I agree. It should have less room for further drop, but 250-day line still serve as a support.

Too horrible to hear that Yen has reached 112.01 yesterday night !! Now at 113.81, Japanese people will start to throw Yen to the market and buy the foreign currency if Yen goes up further, so this could help to ease the upward trend of Yen.

Even if Dow dramaticially recovered almost all its lose last night, Nikkel still fell today, perhaps because of the surge of Yen. Other Asian Market has also recorded a drop at the moment.

Caution in Trading, friends.

By the way, 3a4b5c6c, take care and have a nice trip !!!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-17 01:31 發表



Bad bad days this week, I did not buy at 21200 and 21000 since market dropped fast and deep.  I bought some at 20500 level.  Dow is dropping 260 pts tonight

At this point, HSI is going t ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-17 09:20 編輯 ]

Oh, sorry. I type it wrong. Should be 112.01 !!!

But at this time it is likely for it to jump to 110.

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原帖由 mmr.ren 於 2007-8-17 09:07 發表


die hard...... 110..........

You are exactly right !!! Too horrible recently. Now Yen trade near 113.03. Below is the extract from bloomberg.

"The yen rose to 152.08 per euro at 10:20 a.m. in Tokyo from 152.88 late in New York yesterday, when it reached 150.03, the highest since November. It also climbed to 113.38 against the dollar from 113.89 yesterday, when it touched 112.01, the strongest since June 2006. The yen may rise to 110 against the dollar and 145 per euro in a month"

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-17 09:21 發表

110 can be reached soon.

The only reason for me to explain for the roller coaster today is because those pushing the market down (likely that they are holding put Futures contract) see that Nikkel fall more than 5% today and that is a good excuse to push the market further down for around 1,300 points and significantly deviate from the 250-day line. However, after 3:00 pm, they see that European market is rebounding so they afriad that Dow will rebound too tonight. In order to get away for this risk, they need to stop and those friendly guys started to counterattack again and make HSI rebound.

The market is still unclear, so don't think that the worst is over. Trade with caution.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-17 16:14 編輯 ]

Very luckily that the Federal Reserve finally cut the discount rate by 0.5%, with the following statement:

"The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets"

It might be possible that the Federal Reserve will also cut the federal funds rate which is currently at 5.25%. Before that, Fed wish to observe the environment after cutting the discount rate. However, Fed need how much time to observe ?? Will the Committee immediately cut the federal funds rate in its next meeting in September after cutting the discount rate in the middle of this month??

Some of the analysts are actually saying the right thing, is that the cutting of discount rate will benefit the subprime victims ??

As for my comments, discount rate will temporarily play a positive role in the market and the people will expect Fed will cut the rate soon. However, the subprime crisis still haven't been solved at the moment. Cutting the discount rate will benefit the banks and the big company lowering their cost of borrowing, and it takes a considerable period of time for this benefit passing to the victims of the crisis. Only if the rate cut in the federal fund rate will penerate to these victims at once. Cut in federal rate might lower their financial burden by paying less interest, and also the atomosphere of the housing market might be boosted by the rate cut.

I have another question in mind "Will the US Economy start stepping into the downside of the cycle ??" after the rate cut. For me, rate cut means that the economy start to have some problems and could not sustain under a high interest rate environment.

It is really a very good news that China allow her "small" investors to invest in other markets and the first trial will be in HK. This is actually more effective than the QDII product previously promoted in China. The small investors will finally realize that HK is a very good market to play with because HK will not have a trading suspension mechanism even if the stocks jumps and falls by more than 10%. Perhaps later "small price stocks" will attract lot of these "red" money and the crazy environment in trading small stock will re-appear again in the near future. Of course, HKEX will be the company most influenced by this verygood news. Will the HSI have more than 200 Billions turnover per day later ??

Back to the discussion of the market, it is very difficult to use technical anlaysis to predict the market trend right now. However, as we could see from the graph, there are still many gaps HSI have to fill, the 20-day line (at 22,226) will serve as a resistance.

Don't be so optimistic at the moment. We still need to observe what is going to happen in the US market. Subprime crisis is still there and remains unsolved. The incoming data in this week (such as Initial Jobless Claims on Wed, Durable Goods Orders (New Orders) on Thur and the most important one on Friday - the New Home Sales) will play a crucial role in leading the market.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-20 20:54 編輯 ]

Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price.

Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the same time, China will help HK market by releasing "benefits". Very luckily that we have such a good grandfather !!

The question now remains the way to find good stocks. Which are the targets of those investors from China ?? Blue chips, red chips, HSCEI chips or small chips ??

In the beginning, i think they will try some chips they are familiar with and those are not available for trading in the "A" market, such as some of the HSCEI chips and red chips.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-21 01:17 發表



I am back, just back to HK, and seen the market dramactically V shape on last friday, and rebound another 1200 pts today.  That is very good.

I did place an order to 2628 and 1800 before I ...

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-21 08:44 編輯 ]

688 is also very good. A very explosive quality China property stock !!!

For insurance company, I personally like 2318.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-21 15:55 發表

Yes, that and #857, #883 etc.

Volatility in the market was so much today, with a close of only 133 points gain. The turnover is relatively large. Short term profit taking could not be negligible at the moment.

It is worthy to see #5 still lost today. One of the reasons for me to explain this is mainly because those small investors from China will not have much interest to buy this kind of "exotic" stocks at the early stage. They will only buy those with China background in the very beginning. Some other examples similar to #5 are #330 & #494.

Another reason for their drops today is perhaps the subprime crisis remain unsolved in US and Europe, and this nightmare still affect their recent performance. Henry Paulson just came out and said that there are liquidity concerns which will take time to play out. Likely that Dow Jones need to take some more time before its ride to the next record peak.

Some brokers predicted that the amount of the hot money from China to Hong Kong might reach 800 billion dollars. It is very huge as the capital size of the market is below 20,000 billion dollars. The hot money could provide long term support (and of course fluctuation) to the HK market.

Back to the discussion in the market, as mentioned before, 20-day line (at 22,139) serves as the resistance at the current stage. Even if HSI break this resistance in the morning, but finally it could not close above this line. 100-day line (at 21,343) could temporarily acts as the short term support to the HSI.

China has announced the ride in interest, and the ride in saving interest and the loan interest varies. This might exert some pressure to the stocks in the China banking industry. Likely that we will have a lower opening tomorrow. However, i don't think the market will drop too much, as there are lots of investors are waiting for chance to buy quality stocks.

Friends, trade with caution.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-21 22:14 編輯 ]

Again, after China raise the interest rate, both Stock A and the HK market went up again, especially those property stocks which gained signficantily.

#941 again and again these few days contributes so much to the HSI. It was $75 at its lowest last Friday, and yesterday and today it almost reached $93. Within these three or four trading days, it has $18 gain, which accounts for a increase of 24%. Was that too much and too fast ?? Will $93 serve as a wall again like few weeks ago and make #941 recede ??

Back to the discussion in the market, the HSI rise again with comparatively fewer turnover today, indicating that some people has finished profit taking, and some of the others at this stage prefer to watch and do nothing. HSI could close above 20-day line today which is a very good sign. All the gaps previoulsy produced were filled.

It is now very difficult to predict the trend with technical analysis. 9RSI (at 56) did not suggest the market is over-bought, the HSI might still have chance to get further up without correction. I remember last time the drop in Feb and March 06 also recovered in a speedy way and hit another peak. Therefore, we could not deny this scenario will come again this time.

Of course, we might also have chance to drop a little bit after filling all the gaps.

Dow is very positive at the early stage of today's trading. Don't know whether it could sustain before its close. We don't have data to be released tonight. However, we will have the employment data and the housing data on Thursday and Friday respectively, which will affect the trading atmosphere significantly.

In addition, BOJ will annouce its rate decision tomorrow noon. Market don't think that BOJ will keep the rate unchanged. If something come out which is out of expectation, the market will react very badly tomorrow afternoon. Keep an eyes on Yen.

Keep in mind that "The level of drop is unbelievable in the market, but at the same time the level of ride is also unexpected". Therefore, we should think in an "abnormal" way. This sentence applied to all the case in the market since the Christmas 06.

I agree with you prefectly, especially the second point. Some investors will withdraw the money from Stock A (with high P/E) and enter Stock H (with relatively low P/E) in HK. A correction in the "A" market is expected.

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-22 23:29 發表



#941 is a main stock to drive HSI up and down.  So, can up $18 in few days that pushed HSI up over thousand points for sure

For Yen, I think interest will remain the same this time, nothin ...

From BOJ:

"The Bank of Japan will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.5 percent."

We have another big jump today for the HSI, with a quite good turnover. Within four days in this week, we have a increase of more than 2,000 points. Is it too much ??

I could think in another way. Last time, without the very good news that the mainland investors could make direct investment to the HK market, HSI could stand above 22,500 for a month. Now we have this piece of good news, so I think it is still acceptable if HSI stand at the present position. Of course, this wave of rebound is very speedy, just using 4 days and recover all the lose. However, do you think it is over-sold in the previous week ?? Don't underestimate the power of our mainland investors, they might pull the P/E of the HSI to more than 20.

Indeed, a little correction in the HK market will be more healthy. Anyway, Dow seems to be quite positive today after Bank of America said that they will help Countrywide by pumping money to them and get their shares. Likely that Dow will close at the positive region tonight. Hence, we might have another heap tomorrow.

Carry trade activities is active today and Yen recede to 116.44 (at around 6 p.m. Yen almost drop to 117.0). Almost all the high yield currency went up, British pound is good. 10 years US treasuray bond rate is going up a little bit.

For HK, the HSI had produced a very large gap today bewteen 22,800 and 22,300 (200 points ??). We might need to fill that in the coming few days before breaking the record high. RSI (9) =62 might not be too high. The top of the bollinger channel (at 23,498) might give some resistance, but luckily that the HSI is trading above the middle line of the channel today.

Trade with caution again !!

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-23 21:46 編輯 ]

Yes, the decision of federal fund rate is very important. There should be a FOMC meeting in 18 September. Whether rate cut before that is still a question mark. The market is now reflecting there will be a rate cut, if something come out on the other sizes will exert a very high pressure to the market. As long as you all understand, FOMC still need to take care of the possible inflation. They will only cut the rate if the market is really bad !

引用:

原帖由 你口水真多 於 2007-8-24 04:53 發表
I personally predict that Dow Jones will rebound tonight and wait for the  Tuesday's Federal Reserve rate decision, and more importantly waiting for the comments given by the Federal Reserve on the ...

We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday night. Bank of China (3988) might drop because it has the subprime related equity with a number more than expected.

I personally don't think the drop of the HSI will be too much today as there are huge buying force at the back (not the mainland investors at the moment).

I am so happy to see that there are lot of discussion in this topic today. Yes, it is really a flat market. 3988, within our expectation, fell so much. However, in my point of view, 3988 could be bought near $3.50 because of its business in helping the mainland investors to make direct investment to the HK market.

I am very pleased to hear that so many brothers here have bought 2628 or 2628's call warrant and earn some money. If Dow is pretty okay today, 2628 will have a relatively strong opening next Monday. Brothers, set your target, sell and take the profit. As I stated before, I personally prefer 2318 more than 2628. haha

US economic data is in a very good shape tonight. Both durable goods orders and the new home sales data are all better than expected. This is good ! However, Federal Reserve will also look at these data and think that rate cut might not be necessary at this stage. Therefore, you could see that Dow haven't had a clear direction from 9:30 to 11:00 pm. Strong data means the economy is still very okay but at the same time means inflation might be a problem !

On next Tuesday, we will have the existing home sales.

Back to the HK market, today we really filled the gap produced yesterday. It will be more healthy if we filled this gap first before riding to another peak. The buying force at the bottom is quite strong as expected. We are still not sure whether the China Officials will come out in this weekend or next weekdays and say that they start to proceed the applications for the account for making direct investment in the HK Stock market. If that come out, I am sure that the market will be further up. Of course, friends, we need to determine the risk you could bear.

I wish to refer back to the question raised by brother "devilsadvocate". If you are afraid of the volatility in the market before the Futures end on 30/06. There are two ways in my mind that you could prevent the fluctuation. First, you could set your target profit, if it reaches your target profit on Monday or Tuesday, then you could sell it and minimize the risk. Second, you could buy some "put" warrant to lock your target profit and minimize the risk. Of course, you really need to know how to calculate the amount of "put" warrant you might need for counteracting the possible down trend.

Take care and have a nice weekend, friends.

[ 本帖最後由 cherryjasonchan 於 2007-8-24 23:08 編輯 ]

Dear friends, I have calculated from the ADR market and notice that 2628 (LFC) has reached $35 and 941 (CHL) traded over $100 but close at $99.9, using 1USD=7.82.

It seems that all the guys holding 2628 or 2628's call warrant will have a big lunch and dinner !!

引用:

原帖由 3a4b5c6c 於 2007-8-25 01:22 發表



Yes, it could be.
Have to set target price and some profit cut line of call warrant on monday and tuesday.  Make sure the lock up the profit.

thanks for your advise