I think the squaring of carry-trade will last for a while.

I speculate and long YEN yesterday at 116.6. Now have gained around 60 pts.

I think this time YEN should be able to raise to 114 or higher as there is much panic in the market.

I hope so.

Loss in the share market but gain in the FX market.

YEN is difficult to speculate. Trade only if u can keep the loss (or interest) for
a long time and have a high EQ and FQ.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-16 15:42 發表

It may reach 112.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-8-16 15:47 編輯 ]

Yes, it is the wonderful thing to trade FX, as we can gain (or loss) by trading at 2 different directions.

For traditional shares or mutual fund, u can't do it or u need to buy call/put warrents to hedge. But those tools will have time value which u can hold for a long time.

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-8-16 15:55 發表

On the other hand, I will short JPY if it reaches 112.

I think the recent drop in share market is partially caused by the squaring of carry-trade (buying YEN). If u think the share market continue to drop, then u can long YEN.

Of cause, u need to watch out the sudden rebound of market for over-sold of shares in the whole week.

Amazingly, I expect YEN can reach 114. But now is 113.20 within 1 day. I earn 200+ points (around USD630) in 1 day for 1 lot of YEN 2.5M  !!!

引用:

原帖由 小小力 於 2007-8-16 23:48 發表

I think now it's a bit high to LONG YEN lar....!!  right?

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-8-17 00:25 編輯 ]