YEN is the most difficult to be speculated amoung all the currencies. Carry trade is only one of the excuse for recent raise. There are many other excuse for the YEN to raise or drop with or without any economic reason.

YEN has almost no interest, so a long position need to pay huge amt of interest and u cannot hold the position for long time.

So if u are a newbie, don't touch.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-3-5 00:37 編輯 ]

I long YEN 5M at 119.5. Now it gives me around USD1500 profit.

March is the financial year end for Japan, and usually there is more demand for YEN in this month. If YEN raises to 114.X for around 500 pt profit, I will square my position.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-3-5 11:00 發表

Long at 119? How can you profit. If short, then, you can profit. Did I miss something?

Long (長倉) is a buying position. Short (短倉) is a selling position. So if u BUY YEN, u have a long position. Square (平倉) is to terminate the forex contract.

Do u buy (long) or sell (short) YEN???

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-3-5 11:15 發表

Sorry. I mixed-up. Yes, I LONG yen. I have cross currency position GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and USD/JPY. All in profits now! I expect JPY to reach 113 then can liquidate.

In my thinking, FOREX is more technical and professional than stock.
So say in a more professional way, you should say "I expect JPY to reach 113 then can SQUARE."

Beware if u have a short position in gold.

The current matter of New Century Finance and other major home finance companies could not be solved easily. Many of the people cannot even pay for the interest for their mortgage, and there are millions cases for the affected mortgage. In order to solve the problem, I can see there are 2 choices:
1) US economy strengthen continuously
2) US begins to cut interest rate

(1) is very hard to archieve, and (2) is easier.

Once US begins to cut interest rate, it will decrease the attractiveness of putting money into USD. And there will be an excuse for foreign currencies and raw materials to be pushed up further.

YEN is good for the current focus and strengtheness. However, the interest cost for longing YEN is too big and we can't hold the long contract for very long time, unless YEN can rise significantly shortly. But don't try to predict YEN's future as political matter is more important than economic matter for YEN.

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原帖由 ephb2 於 2007-3-13 21:30 發表
sell gold at US 650.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-3-14 15:35 編輯 ]