引用:

原帖由 billy888 於 2007-1-10 10:29 AM 發表
大家同意大摩所言, 牛市末期, 熊市已到嗎?   
大摩話從種種跡象己經睇到個市已經有泡末, 牛市已經到�鬙蓬�, 漫長�嚘A市要即將展開....

For me, I do not believe !!!!!!!!!!!!

大家認為呢?

牛市有3期, 熊市有2期. 次序是牛1->牛2->牛3->熊1->熊2.

現在應是牛市2期尾, 要下調一輪(是下調,不是熊市)才會到牛市3期.
牛市2期巳經升到驚. 到了牛市3期, 雞犬都升, 完全沒有危機意�l,
股市會在歡天喜地中突然下滑 (如 1997).

由於牛市3期未到, 何來熊市?

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-1-11 08:58 PM 編輯 ]

引用:

原帖由 potatogundam 於 2007-1-11 09:03 PM 發表
真的好難分現在的牛市和熊市, 因為已經 20000 點, 升降數百點, 百分比只很少

The only problem is to distinguish whether now is Cow 2 or Cow 3.
If it is Cow 3, then need to go away immediately becoz Bear 1 and
Bear 2 are coming. If it is Cow 2, u can still have the last chance to
buy when the market consolidates b4 the final crazy raise.

Fm 曾淵滄's newest book, he identified now is the Cow 2. So may need
to find more sources to compare if his find-out is correct or not.

The graph is easy to read. But U won't know the stage after it happens and u have to looked back
but not forward. So if it is Cow 2, u still have luck. If it is Cow 3, then u will have bad-luck for the
coming years.

BTW, this is Dow Jones' Theory but not 曾淵滄's theory. 曾淵滄 only quoted to his new book.

But I strongly believe it is Cow 2 as people now still have "fear". In Cow 3, all are fearless. Recall the happenings during 1997 peak and 2000 internet bubble.

[ 本帖最後由 b4321 於 2007-1-11 11:23 PM 編輯 ]