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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-3-19 14:03 發表

It can fall 800 points in 1 day. Just need the "right" news.

The "right" news can make the index down 800 in one day.  But it may also boost up the index by 800 in one day.  Such a belief depends on whether you have stocks in hand.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-3-19 15:02 發表

It is not a belief and has nothing to do with whether I have stocks or not. This point will be reached for sure. Just wait for some news from US mortgage market.

It is certainly a belief because you don't really know what happened in the US second prime mortgage market.  What you have known is already known to everybody. Unless you have details to support the more "bad" news(e.g. the prime mortgage market)  it is still a wild guess.

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原帖由 peninsula 於 2007-3-19 15:43 發表

Just mark my words!

I note with thanks your assurance.  I always admire people who stand firm on his view.

I would not say that HS index would not drop to 18000 or below this year.  I allow for the situation and have cashed most of my stocks earlier to prepare to buy cheaper stocks on that day.

However, there are always both sides of a coin and I dare not predict and say for certain that trend of the index 9 months ahead,  based on my limited second hand knowledge.  There are always circumstantial economic and political changes which can shape and re-shape the direction of the market. We should be flexible and play by our ears all the time.

If somebody told me last night that the HS index might go up by 300 points today.  I would definitely have grave reservation having regard to the upward revision of the interest rate in the mainland just announced over the weekend.