A slow start out of the Olympic blocks


OBSERVER
James Tien
Dec 13, 2007           
     
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"A lifetime of training for just 10 seconds." That was how the great African-American athlete Jesse Owens described his mixed emotions after winning a gold medal - and sporting immortality - in the 100-metres final at the 1936 Berlin Olympics.

No one could accuse Owens of being poorly prepared. His whole adult life to that point had focused on his quest for gold. We in Hong Kong, by contrast, have only nine months before our own Olympic challenge - and right now, we're simply not in shape.

In August next year, Hong Kong will have the honour of being an Olympic city, hosting the equestrian events of the 2008 Games. It is the opportunity of a lifetime - and an opportunity we are currently in danger of allowing to pass us by.

Cross the border to the mainland, and the billboards, the posters, the paraphernalia and the excitement are there for everyone to see. Here in Hong Kong, by contrast, there isn't so much as an Olympic murmur, let alone an Olympic fervour. I have every confidence that, as the time draws near, Hong Kong will focus on the challenge that the Olympics presents. My concern, however, is that we will leave it too late, and fail to make the most of this golden opportunity.

It isn't only athletes who benefit from the Olympics. With the eyes of the world upon us, the 2008 Games will benefit every person who lives, works and does business in Hong Kong and mainland China. We must be ready to welcome the Olympic tourists on their way to and from the Games on the mainland, and those watching the Hong Kong events.

We must be ready to take advantage of the opportunity to burnish Hong Kong's appeal around the world and showcase our huge variety of attractions. We must entice and attract as many visitors as we can and ensure that they take away with them memories not just of the greatest Games yet, but of a diverse and vibrant city that they will want to return to again and again.

To prepare ourselves properly, we must promote ourselves properly. That is why the Hong Kong Tourism Board, which I chair, has already begun taking our message around the world. We are selling Hong Kong as a destination in New Zealand, Britain, France and the United States. In the months ahead, we will intensify those promotion efforts in target cities across the continents.

We plan to implement a series of initiatives to improve the Olympic atmosphere and enrich visitors' experiences. These include special decorations and meet-and-greet events at ports of entry. But the true fervour needs to come from within the hearts of Hongkongers - and that is lacking.

Time is a precious commodity, as Owens appreciated when he reflected ruefully on the years of effort he invested for his 10 seconds of glory. But the legacy of his deeds in that golden summer more than 70 years ago lives on today.

We cannot afford to stand on the sidelines and watch the Olympics pass us by, like observers watching the finalists in the 100-metres race flash before their eyes. We must get involved, engaged and engrossed. The prize that the 2008 Games offer is more than just a moment in the sun. It is a legacy that will last for years. Every schoolchild should be chattering excitedly about it; every business planning promotions around it.

Our legacy will be a strengthened sporting interest among our young people. It will be a hugely enhanced international reputation for Hong Kong. Our legacy will be the knowledge that, in the summer of 2008, we were a successful and celebrated Olympic city. But that legacy has yet to be earned.

Let's get on the starting blocks now. Let's not waste another day. Let's get a proper Olympic countdown under way in this co-host city and remind everyone just how close it is, just how much there is still to do, and just how much we have to win or lose.

James Tien Pei-chun is chairman of the Hong Kong Tourism Board and the Liberal Party


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Blinkered Macau


PETER KAMMERER

Dec 14, 2007           
     
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Few places on Earth have undergone as much change in the past decade as Macau. Even beside the growth of mainland China, the city's evolution from a sleepy Portuguese backwater to the world's gambling capital, in terms of revenue, is stunning. Bulging coffers from gambling taxes, and phenomenal growth and development, would ordinarily earn leaders the equivalent of a Nobel Prize for public service.

The serious problems the city faces say quite the opposite, though: those in charge should be replaced by people who know what they are doing. This is the view of the author of the definitive reference book on the city, Nagasaki University professor Geoffrey Gunn. After visiting Macau last Friday for the first time in two years, I can only agree.

An information technology training manager I met at the ferry pier in Hong Kong answered my question about how much had changed by using an analogy he was familiar with: hardware and software. He said the city had undergone a facelift that was akin to putting the latest computer in place, but the mindset of the people using it - the operating system - was still Windows 95. This proved to be remarkably accurate.

Macau is often compared with its US gambling city sister, Las Vegas - although the only similarity is that there are Las Vegas casino operators who have set up shop in Macau. The driving force of Macau's income is overwhelmingly from casino taxes. Las Vegas knows that this is not, in itself, a viable income stream and has diversified through conventions and entertainment.

A terrorist attack, bird flu outbreak, powerful typhoon: any disaster could send gamblers running. And they might not come in such numbers if the mainland, Hong Kong or other regional cities opened their doors to casinos - as Singapore is doing.

Dr Gunn put the lack of diversification down to the government not having a firm development plan. Worse, it had given little thought to the implications of letting so many casino operators in at once with the opening of the gambling concession in 2002, leading to a flood of mainland gamblers and severe strain on essential resources like electricity, water and transport.

There is ample proof of this one-eyed approach which, in two cases, even tramples on another income-earner - the city's history and roots. The A-Ma temple, dedicated to the goddess of the sea and believed by some to be the origin of Macau's name, has been cut off from the reason for which it was built: a road now separates it from the South China Sea. And Beijing has stepped into a controversy over a Unesco-designated world heritage site, the Guia lighthouse, because the Macau government's approval of erecting tall buildings nearby threatens to obscure it.

The trial on fraud and money-laundering charges of former transport and public works secretary Ao Man-long is revealing much about the drivers of the construction boom. It comes amid increasing anti-government sentiment from a chunk of the population left out of the development loop because they lack the skills to work in the new casino and retail operations.

Authorities recognise the brewing crisis and have promised an improved education system and better social services. But skills on a par with imported foreign workers will take time to develop, as will building capacity on the electricity grid and homes for the elderly, among much else that needs urgent attention.

Above all, though, Macau's people need to shake off their small-town mentality.

My return to Hong Kong summed up the so-called new Macau. At the ferry terminal, I was told that although it was 8pm, the earliest sailing for which tickets were available was 12.45am. Startled, I turned round, and was greeted by a throng of ticket touts who had snapped up the available seats and were offering them at inflated prices - all within earshot of the counter.

This is the thinking of the Macau of old - and the reason why there needs to be a shake-up in the top-most echelons of the administration, to set an example for all.

Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor

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Catch of the day: a fix for our fisheries crisis


Markus Shaw
Dec 17, 2007           
     
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For the past few years, along with other environmentalists, I have been invited by the chief executive to discuss areas of concern prior to his policy address. Every year, I have told him that our marine environment and collapsing fisheries are the most pressing conservation issues in Hong Kong. As usual, marine conservation merited not a single mention in this year's policy address.
The dire state of our marine environment is an easy problem to fix. It requires a little intelligence, some commitment, and not a great deal of money. In addition, a recent socio-economic study by the University of British Columbia shows that investing in a solution to our fisheries crisis results in a very significant return on investment in terms of payback to other parts of the economy.



One of WWF's proposals is the creation of sizeable no-take marine reserves. Our initial aim is 10 per cent of local waters. Bill Ballantine, the famous marine conservationist from New Zealand and pioneer campaigner for no-take reserves, said on a recent visit here that we should be more ambitious. "Go for 50 per cent," he said. "Hong Kong will be an overnight sensation. The whole world will speak of you with admiration - you'll be on the front pages and at the forefront of conservation."

It was a dramatic call. Not as dramatic, however, as the "top priority" 1999 recommendation of the Environmental Policy Working Group, set up by Tung Chee-hwa, that all of our waters should be turned into a marine park. Here's a message for Donald Tsang Yam-kuen: this would be a legacy on a scale of former governor Murray MacLehose's country park system - a lasting legacy for the ages.

In the meantime, the government still operates a free-for-all fishing policy. Mr Tsang says the problem is difficult because fishermen's livelihoods are at stake. It only takes a moment's reflection to realise that their livelihoods are at stake because there are no fish to catch. It is not an excuse for inaction. Even the fishermen feel anything is better than the status quo. The Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department is asleep at the wheel. Ten years after a government-commissioned report concluded that our fisheries were in a state of crisis and in need of urgent action, almost nothing has been done.

The Committee for Sustainable Fisheries was set up last year. It will talk until 2009 and then make recommendations. Its membership does not include anyone from the WWF, the most actively involved NGO on this issue in Hong Kong. Nor does it include any scientist with fisheries expertise, despite there being in Hong Kong world-renowned experts in this field.

The fishing community is also asleep at the wheel. The key prerequisite of any compensation scheme is a licensing regime for commercial fishermen in Hong Kong. All our neighbouring countries operate such a scheme. It is inexcusable that there should be any delay in its introduction here. Yet the fishermen themselves are opposed. This is akin to the government saying to fishermen: "Here is a monopoly," and the fishermen replying: "No thank you."

The fishermen's instinctual reflex to oppose any change, even one which will benefit them, is one of the obstacles to progress. It also contradicts the opinion that many of them have expressed that any change is better than the status quo.

The average weight of fish caught in Hong Kong is less than 10 grams. Last week I interviewed one of them: "There are very few adults left now," it said. "Most of us are kids - we get taken at a very young age." A Chinese Bahaba (a two-metre specimen) said: "I'm really surprised you were able to find me! We used to be some of the most numerous fish in the Pearl River Delta. Now even I find it difficult to find another Bahaba. I think I must be one of the last ones left."

I asked what message I could bring back, and they all replied: "Alas, fish don't vote. Tell them that we love the waters of Hong Kong. Make it safe for us, and we will come back."

Markus Shaw is chairman of WWF Hong Kong


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Cracks in the system
It's a pity the strategic economic dialogue is so ineffective, as Sino-US ties will only get trickier

Andy Xie
Dec 18, 2007           
     
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Despite the hoopla around agreements on food safety and some other issues, the fortunes of the Sino-US strategic economic dialogue continue to decline. Last week's third session of the meetings did not reverse their trend towards becoming another expensive talk shop. With so many top-level people together for several days, it is a pity that the dialogue didn't achieve more.

It can, and it should. The rise of China is bringing benefits to many and also significant tension to the world order. The process must be managed carefully by China and the US together, to avoid big shocks to the global economic system in the next 20 years.

The dialogue came about as the tension over China's currency policy threatened to boil over. From America's perspective, the forum was meant to be a pressure cooker for hammering Beijing into capitulation on its currency policy. China saw it as a place to educate foreign devils on mainland realities, so they would stop making demands and complicating the life of the Communist Party.

But it was a case of "same bed, different dreams" from the outset. The lame duck presidency in the US robbed the American delegation of its "scarecrow" effect. Indeed, the next US administration may abandon the dialogue completely. That would be a pity.

The rise of China will be the most important force in the global economy for the next two decades. China's economy will grow to over half the size of the American one in the next 10 years, and may exceed it before 2030, triggering more tensions between the two nations. A platform like the strategic economic dialogue will be badly needed to solve disputes and head off new tensions.

The key to a stable global equilibrium is to make China's rise a win-win for most players, especially the US. It has been so in the past. As factories moved to China, the west benefited from higher corporate profitability, lower consumer prices and low interest rates. Cheap debt covered up the income problem for blue-collar workers who lost out to Chinese workers. Western companies also benefited from China's income growth by owning a big chunk of the Chinese economy. Over one-tenth of Chinese domestic demand is met by foreign enterprises that produce in China. No large economy in the world is as open.

But that virtuous cycle has run into rough ground lately. Debt has played a big role in US prosperity over the past 10 years. But now it turns out that much of the debt accumulation was due to fraudulent financial products that understated their true costs. Hence, the trend to go into debt became artificially inflated. As the debt bubble bursts, the US is trying to prop up its living standard through income instead of debt. Its cheap-currency policy has fostered an obsession with China's exchange rate.

But a stronger yuan would have little direct impact on the performance of US exports. China's labour cost is one-tenth of America's. No conceivable amount of yuan appreciation would make America's manufactured goods cheap enough for Chinese consumers to buy.

An indirect effect of yuan appreciation - the further strengthening of other currencies against the US dollar - is difficult to assess. Inflationary pressure from a cheap dollar appears to be taking hold, which may limit how far it can fall. So it seems the US must solve its problem through less consumer spending rather than exports. But that will be painful, so the US may lash out at China regardless of its actual level of culpability in the US downturn.

It is not in China's interest to see the US decline. America's economy needs to make some adjustments, but the downturn could spiral out of control. The US Federal Reserve is trying to inject liquidity to revive the credit market, but that is the wrong medicine. Two issues stopped the credit expansion. First, some major financial institutions may be technically bankrupt; regardless of how much money they get from the Fed, they cannot lend because of a lack of capital.

Second, Wall Street misled the world and marketed fraudulent papers in the name of financial innovation. It could take time for foreigners to recover their confidence in Wall Street, and lend to America again. Other people cannot help the US on the second point; it must undertake serious reforms and weed out the bad apples in its financial system.

But Beijing could help with the first point. China is running a current-account surplus of over US$300 billion per year. The surplus capital could be used to pursue equity stakes in US financial institutions, to replenish their capital. More important, Beijing could link those institutions to China's booming economy, enormously strengthening their franchise value. This win-win solution, however, is resisted by the US establishment, who can't imagine Chinese as major shareholders - that is, potential bosses. They just want to keep Chinese in the dark and feed them US Treasury debt.

Americans may come to their senses next year. When the credit crunch becomes much worse, Chinese money may not look so bad after all. They might even knock on China's door, begging for money. The best way for China to help the US is to recapitalise its own financial system, not revalue the yuan. Let the next strategic economic dialogue focus on solutions like this rather than on fancy rhetoric.

Andy Xie is an independent economist


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Nobel calling for Chinese stem cell scientist who beat the odds


BEHIND THE NEWS
Stephen Chen
Dec 19, 2007           
     
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When she started out two years ago at the University of Wisconsin-Madison searching for gene combinations that could reverse an ordinary skin cell into a stem cell, a primitive type that could potentially be turned into any kind of human cell, Yu Junying's chances were one in about nine followed by 157 zeros.

"I did not have much hope of getting anywhere when we started," said Dr Yu, 34.

But the Peking University graduate, who grew up on a rice farm in Tanxi village, Zhejiang province , and went to the US a decade ago, was undaunted and came up with a solution that could put her in the running for a Nobel Prize. "I am just a stubborn person who got lucky," she said of her breakthrough research.

Stem cells became the source of intense scientific interest after researchers discovered they had the potential to produce any kind of human cell. The first human stem cells were successfully harvested in 1998 and since then many scientists have believed the only viable source of the type is an early-stage embryo. But the process involves destruction of the embryo and is ethically controversial.

A number of alternative sources have since been proposed, including ova and sperm, but little progress has been made.

Fresh from her PhD programme at the University of Pennsylvania, Dr Yu, started her research in 2003 as an assistant scientist in the laboratory of James Thomson, a renowned stem cell specialist who led the production of the first human embryonic stem cell lines.

Dr Yu spent the next two years trying to prove that "fusing" stem cells with other cells causes some of these cells to revert to a stem-cell-like undifferentiated state.

"It was an exciting finding, but practically useless unless we could figure out what were the driving genes behind the changes," said Dr Yu.

She calculated there were about 100 possible trigger genes in the pool and, in 2005, with the continued support of Dr Thomson, started sorting them out to determine which ones activated the process. She focused her efforts on setting off the reversal in skin cells.

"Few had thought about skin cells maybe because they are too marginal and too common," said Dr Yu. "But they are the type of cells we understand most."

About the same time, she had heard of a team of Japanese scientists who were on the same trail, but said she felt no pressure.

"They must have felt the same. In the beginning you feel as though only God knows how long it will take. It could be forever," she said.

Dr Yu worked at least 10 hours each day in the lab doing the labour-intensive cloning, injecting and testing of one gene after another, over and over again with only two technicians to help her. A year passed with no positive results.

"Besides the Japanese, I didn't think anyone else was willing to do the job because it was heavy duty and labour intensive," she said. "I was prepared for decades [of research]."

But then she got lucky. On July 4 last year, Dr Yu hit on a combination of 14 genes that actually worked. To celebrate, she went home and had a sound sleep.

The initial excitement was followed by fear and stress. For more than three years she had worked with little hope and, thus, little pressure. But at that moment she realised she could not "afford to lose the race to the Japanese".

That realisation was shared by the university laboratory and more resources were put at her disposal, with Dr Thomson participating in the final testing phase.

Dr Yu redoubled her efforts and successfully narrowed the number of genes down to four - two functional drivers and two efficiency boosters - and submitted her paper to Science magazine.

The Japanese team, led by Kyoto University's Shinya Yamanaka, also submitted their findings - with two pairs of genes similar to Dr Yu's - to Cell magazine at more or less the same time.

In a rare moment of co-operation between two rival scientific journals, the magazines decided to publish their papers simultaneously on November 20. "It was a deal to share the Nobel prize," a leading mainland biologist said.

When asked recently if the paper would win her the Nobel Prize, Dr Yu simply said with a smile: "Who knows?"

Unlike the discovery of the molecular structure of DNA, which went unnoticed for years, Dr Yu's and Professor Yamanaka's findings made headlines around the world.

"Everyone was waiting for this day to come," Tadeusz Pacholczyk, director of education at the National Catholic Bioethics Centre, told The New York Times.

Pei Duanqing, deputy director general of the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Guangzhou Institute of Biomedicine and Health, said he vividly remembered a visit to meet Dr Yu at her lab last year.

"The woman has a very pure mindset ... with persistence and fresh ideas," Professor Pei said. "We are profoundly happy not only because it opens a door that leads to an entirely new world [of stem cell research] for all of us, but also because a Chinese has played a decisive role in making it happen."

Meanwhile, Dr Yu has two issues to address. First, she is eager to find out how and why the genes can effectively reverse a cell's development.

"We still know terribly little about the reversing mechanism. Further investigation may revolutionise our understanding of life," she said.

The second objective is to perfect the technology so that one day it can be safely applied to people and this involves finding ways to remove the four alien genes.

"The reversed stem cells are not exactly the same as those we obtain from an embryo ... [The alien genes] could induce mutations or cancer, so I am looking for methods to take them out after they complete their functions at the final stage," she said.

"Before their removal, we will not use them to produce any tissues or organs for humans ... We may use [the stem cells] to study some diseases such as Parkinson's by creating some neurons for drug testing, but we are not ready to apply the cells on humans directly."


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America's tortured soul stands on trial


TOM PLATE

Dec 20, 2007           
     
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There are times when, from a moral standpoint, men and women simply should not remain silent. In such times, seemingly fine lines need to be turned into unequivocal hard lines. This is when the men and women of conscience stand out.

Consider the controversy about torture that is bedevilling America. It may be hard to believe, but only one serious presidential candidate has so far been outspoken about the need for the US never to use torture.

At a time when potential leaders ought to be standing up, by and large they are falling all over themselves in an attempt to avoid taking firm policy lines that might alienate potential primary voters.

But moral waffling is not the style, on the vital question of torture, for Senator John McCain. And he should know: he spent time in a Vietnamese prison, where he was severely mistreated and other American soldiers were tortured.

He recently said: "These tools are not American tools, and the easy way is not the American way."

It is the difficult moral dilemmas in life that give definition to our character and soul. All the candidates favour a high-quality health care system. No one is happy about the rich-poor divide. No candidate, as far as I know, offers anything other than a contemptuous view of Islamic terrorism. Those are the easy questions. But should the US way of interrogation permit the torture of a suspect who may have valuable, even explosive, information?

Two major ways of approaching this question are perhaps most incisive. One approach uses cost-benefit analysis: would the quality and quantity of information obtained by torture justify the barbarity of the technique? The problem with this philosophical approach is that sometimes, if not often, the information is not useful or may be erroneous.

The second classic approach is more principled. It does not try to add up the gains and losses of using torture, but would absolutely ban certain classic torture techniques as unambiguous no-go areas for US interrogators.

But don't desperate times call for desperate measures? The answer is that desperate times test true moral fibre in ways that ordinary times can't even approach.

In 1981, I wrote a book with Andrea Darvi, now my wife, titled Secret Police: The Inside Story of a Network of Terror. Its conclusion was that America is different from bad nations only when it stays on the morally right side. "A secret police force is a horribly blunt and effective instrument of suffering," we wrote. "This book is intended as a warning."

Today, more than a quarter of a century later, at least one candidate for the White House takes a similar view. It is no wonder that both the Des Moines Register and The Boston Globe - major newspapers stalking the Des Moines and New Hampshire primary tests - recently endorsed Senator McCain. No one needs to agree with him on every issue. But at least he stands for something - and it is something very important: America's national soul.

Tom Plate is a veteran journalist and author, most recently, of Confessions of an American Media Man


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Grains of hope


PETER KAMMERER

Dec 21, 2007           
     
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As a child growing up in Australia in the 1960s, the topic of global hunger came up every other night at the dinner table. A reluctant vegetable eater, I was constantly being reminded by my mother about the world's starving children so that I would not waste food.

World leaders have spoken a lot about global hunger. There have been numerous top-level summits held, agreements signed and countless billions of dollars pledged and given.

Swathes of the world have benefited, but there are still substantial parts where hunger is rampant. The UN estimates that, each day, 25,000 people die from a lack of food or related causes.

The problem is not so much that there is not enough food, but that people living in poverty cannot afford it. They become malnourished, and prone to illnesses and disease.

If governments gave 0.7 per cent of their annual budgets to fight poverty, as experts contend they should, hunger would quickly disappear. As it is, only Scandinavian nations meet or approach this target, and the consequence of the shortfall is apparent in the grim statistics.

Through rapid industrial development, China and India are showing what can be achieved. But not all nations can offer the same workforce skills and advantages, so a solution, for now, remains in the world banding together to help feed hungry people.

Innovation is the key, and I stumbled across it on the internet this week at www.freerice.com. Millions of other people have also found what is surely one of the most useful of all websites.

US computer programmer John Breen, a long-time advocate for poverty alleviation, came up with the idea by chance. His eldest son was studying for exams and a word game was devised to help him with his English.

Mr Breen had developed a site for the UN's World Food Programme and has since set up his own site - poverty.com - to educate people about the problem. By combining his word game with his desire to see global hunger vanquished, the new website was born on October 7. Tens of thousands of people have since received food that they would not otherwise have.

At this seasonal time of giving and sharing, there is no better gift than the address of this website. By playing the game, you will be improving your English language skills while feeding the needy.

The concept is simple: You are given a word and have to choose the one with the same meaning from a list of four. Each correct answer earns 20 grains of rice, which the advertiser on each page pays for and forwards to the World Food Programme.

For those learning English or who simply love words, this game is addictive. The more correct answers, the harder the level. While you are learning and having fun, money for food is being raised.

World Food Programme spokesman Caroline Hurford said that more than US$200,000 had already gone to her organisation and that at least half had been used to buy rice for the victims of the recent floods in Bangladesh. With millions of people visiting the site each day, and the number increasing rapidly, she had high hopes for its fund-raising powers.

Mr Breen is surprised about how much interest his idea has generated, mostly through word of mouth. While he does not see it as the solution to global hunger, he does believe it is a valuable tool to educate people about the problem. He is also more optimistic now than ever before that he will live to see the day - perhaps in as little as 20 years - when everyone in the world is properly fed.

There are many worthy charities asking for donations to help the needy in Hong Kong and elsewhere in China. After giving them our largesse, and in between celebrating the festive season, we should find time to visit freerice.com.

Those few hundred grains of rice we earn while playing a game may not on their own feed a starving person but, through a combined effort, we can make a modest dent in global hunger. The chances are also good that we will have improved our vocabulary. These are surely gifts we cannot let pass by.

Peter Kammerer is the Post's foreign editor

peter.kamm@scmp.com


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Engage with Iran to isolate its president


Volker Perthes
Dec 24, 2007           
     
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The recent US National Intelligence Estimate about Iran's nuclear programme and ambitions has opened the door to fresh strategic discussions among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany. Such a strategic reconsideration is probably most necessary for those in the Bush administration who, until recently, have been prophets of imminent danger.

For Europeans, the report has not removed, but rather confirmed, the 2003 concerns of Britain, France and Germany that Iran's nuclear programme could eventually give it a military nuclear capability, and that even before that point, it might spark regional nuclear proliferation.

The report also confirmed two assumptions that have since guided Europe's diplomatic approach: Iran reacts to external incentives and disincentives, and taking legitimate Iranian interests into consideration is the best way to influence Iran's leaders. Most Europeans who have been dealing with the issue also assume that Iran is aiming at capacities that would eventually make all options available, including quick development of a nuclear weapon, rather than actually acquiring a weapon.

So concern about Iran's nuclear programme is still justified. The robust diplomatic approach needed to confront the problem must include three components. First, it should be based on a broad international consensus. Second, it should clearly communicate that the issue is proliferation, not the nature of the Iranian regime. Third, any further sanctions should be accompanied by an earnest offer of dialogue and engagement.

By contrast, some US policymakers continue to believe Iran would abandon its enrichment programme if the European Union imposed unilateral sanctions. But a clear-headed analysis indicates that EU sanctions would lead to more trade diversion, with China, Russia, Turkey or Dubai benefiting.

Thus, Europeans favour a new Security Council resolution, even if its measures are weaker than what the US or the EU could impose unilaterally. This would send an effective signal that Iran is in conflict with the entire world community.

Iranians do not like to be isolated. Making it obvious that it is President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's policies that are isolating Iran would strengthen the still-fragile anti-Ahmadinejad alliance of pragmatic conservatives and reformers.

Europeans should call for a common policy with the US that focuses on domestic developments in Iran. Both the EU and the US should be prepared to enter direct, comprehensive and unconditional negotiations with Iran.

The best method of strengthening Mr Ahmadinejad, however, appears to be to threaten the country and the regime as a whole. An honest offer of engagement would allow Mr Ahmadinejad's pragmatic opponents to show that it is Iran's president and his policies, not the west, that are at fault.

Volker Perthes is chairman and director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Copyright: Project Syndicate


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Prize and prejudice
The Nobels fascinate us, although they may not be the best measure of merit

Robert Marc Friedman
Dec 27, 2007           
     
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The dance around the golden Nobel medallion began over 100 years ago, and is still going strong. As icon, myth and ritual, the Nobel Prize is well secured. But what do we actually know about the Nobel Prize? Shrouded in secrecy and legend, the prize first became an object for serious scholarly study after 1976, when the Nobel Foundation opened its archives.

Subsequent research by historians of science leaves little doubt: the Nobel medallion is etched with human frailties.

Although many observers accept a degree of subjectivity in the prizes for literature and peace, the science prizes have long been assumed to be an objective measure of excellence. But, from the start, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, which awards the physics and chemistry prizes, and the Caroline Institute, which awards those for medicine/physiology, have based their decisions on the recommendations of their respective committees. And the committee members' own understanding of science has been critical in determining outcomes.

From the beginning, the inner world of those entrusted to make recommendations was marked by personal and principled discord over how to interpret Alfred Nobel's cryptic will and to whom prizes should be awarded. While committee members tried to be dispassionate, their own judgments, predilections and interests necessarily entered their work.

Winning a prize has never been an automatic process, a reward for attaining a magical level of achievement. Nominators rarely provided the committees with a clear consensus, and the committees often ignored the rare mandates when a single strongly nominated candidate did appear, such as Albert Einstein for his work on relativity theory. Academy physicists had no intention of recognising this theoretical achievement, "even if the whole world demands it".

Moreover, a simple change in the composition of the committee could decide a candidate's fate. Not until committee strongman C.W. Oseen died in 1944 could the theoretical physicist Wolfgang Pauli - one of the giants of quantum mechanics - receive a prize. Conversely, the Academy of Sciences sometimes rebelled against its committees. Harbouring a grudge, one chemist rallied the academy to block the committee's recommendation for the Russian Dmitry Mendeleyev, who created the periodic table.

Even when all involved tried to rise above pettiness and partiality, selecting winners was always difficult - and remains so. Committee members occasionally confessed privately that, often, several candidates could be found who equally deserved a prize. Unambiguous, impartial criteria for selecting a winner were not at hand - and never will be.

The image of science advancing through the efforts of individual genius is, of course, appealing. Yet, to a greater extent than the prizes allow, research progresses through the work of many.

Brilliant minds do matter, but it is often inappropriate and unjust to limit recognition to so few. The Nobel bylaws do not allow splitting a prize into more than three parts, thereby excluding discoveries that entailed work by more than three researchers, or omitting key people who equally deserved to share in the honour.

Moreover, it has become clear that many important branches of science are not addressed by Alfred Nobel's testament (limited to physics, chemistry, physiology/medicine). Some of the past century's greatest intellectual triumphs, such as those related to the expanding universe and continental drift, have not been celebrated. Environmental sciences - surely of fundamental importance - also come up empty. There is nothing wrong with wanting heroes in science, but we should understand the criteria used to select those who we are asked to revere.

Why do people venerate the Nobel Prize? There is no easy answer. The cult of the prize began even before the first winners were announced. Media fascination whipped up speculation and interest. The creed of the prize did not depend so much on the merit of the winners, as much as the understanding that the prize was a powerful means to gain prestige, publicity and advantage.

Even scientists who frowned on the Swedish committees' limitations and sometimes odd choices nevertheless still nominated and lobbied for candidates, knowing that a winner can draw attention and money to a research speciality, institution or national scientific community.

Is science or society well served by a fixation on prizes and competition? Perhaps once the mystery of the Nobel Prize is reduced, we might reflect on what is truly significant in science.

The soul and heritage of science going back several centuries is far richer than the quest for prizes.

Robert Marc Friedman, professor of the history of science at the University of Oslo, is the author of The Politics of Excellence: Behind the Nobel Prize in Science. Copyright: Project Syndicate


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Promising new start for South Korea


Ralph Cossa
Dec 28, 2007           
     
  |   

  



The landslide presidential victory of conservative Lee Myung-bak is good news for South Korea, for the United States, for their alliance and - if responded to appropriately and wisely - for North Korea as well.

Mr Lee has made it clear that he is committed to improving North-South relations, but that progress along this front first requires Pyongyang to live up to its denuclearisation promises. This is a positive message that reinforces both the flexibility and firmness contained in Washington's current approach towards Pyongyang. It will bring Washington and Seoul closer than they have been for several years, both in terms of dealing with the North and in terms of the alliance itself.

While Mr Lee and his Grand National Party (GNP) are more conservative than incumbent President Roh Moo-hyun's "progressive" administration, they are not your father's conservatives. The more hardline position, represented in the election by former GNP leader Lee Hoi-chang, scored poorly. It finished a distant third behind Lee Myung-bak and the United New Democratic Party's Chung Dong-young - Mr Roh's former minister of reunification who was, in the eyes of many, overly conciliatory towards the North.

It is hard to imagine Mr Chung or Mr Roh really playing hardball with the North, regardless of its transgressions. By contrast, president-elect Lee has said "full-fledged economic exchanges can start after North Korea dismantles its nuclear weapons". While Mr Roh paid lip service to the concept of reciprocity, Lee Myung-bak seems more serious about expecting it, while remaining clearly committed to the positive aspects of North-South engagement that South Koreans have come to expect and demand.

Lee Hoi-chang, at the other extreme, seemed more comfortable with the school of international diplomacy favoured by America's former UN ambassador, John Bolton, which sees confrontational politics and ultimate regime change in the North as the only viable option.

No doubt, some in Washington will see a conservative victory as an opportunity to revert to the more confrontational - and largely ineffective - policies of the past; this would be a huge mistake. Of course, Pyongyang may leave Washington and Seoul with no other option, if it continues to drag its feet on making a complete declaration of its nuclear programmes and holdings.

The new administration takes the reins in Seoul on February 25, and Pyongyang will be presented with several options. It could revert to form and drag its feet on the denuclearisation process, thus forcing the new president (and the Bush administration) into a more hardline position. Or it could produce a comprehensive list of its nuclear programmes and holdings - locking in the denuclearisation process and the firm, yet flexible and fair, approach that Mr Lee and the Bush administration currently seem to prefer. One hopes Pyongyang makes the right choice.

Ralph A. Cossa is president of Pacific Forum CSIS. Distributed by Pacific Forum CSIS


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Blogging boom sets up stars for bonanza
222 days to go

OLYMPIC COUNTDOWN
Martin Zhou
Dec 30, 2007           
     
  |   

  



If you're waiting for gossip and the daily thoughts of your favourite athletes about life at the Olympics, chances are you're in for a treat next summer.

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) earlier this month softened its stance towards blogs by Olympians during the games.

A recent IOC meeting pledged to lift the restriction on athletes and coaches who are keen to share their first-hand experience at the "Greatest Show on Earth".

The permission is a U-turn on the rules that saw a cyber blackout during the 2004 Athens Games.

An IOC spokeswoman this week declined to comment on the issue, saying the IOC was still mulling over just how it should police the blogs. But she did reveal the IOC was very attracted to the idea of the heaps of free publicity nice blogs would bring, those which would help "communicate" the Olympic message to the world.

The pending approval of blogging among athletes and coaches will be welcomed by many - especially the mainland's sport fraternity, some of whom are rubbing their hands at the opportunity to market their blogs to advertisers.

However, topping the agenda of concern among Chinese leaders is the threat of freedom of expression such freewheeling examples of blogging pose to the authorities.

The Chinese government is keen to project Beijing 2008 as being held in a modern, stable nation full of happy, prosperous, forward-thinking people.

To counter bad publicity, however - grievances issued from all quarters of Chinese society and overseas - China has been strengthening its censorship of domestic and international media over the past two years.

So you can imagine the horror felt by all in the Zhongnanhai government compound at the thought of foreign athletes and coaches - and some nationals - articulating their complaints and insight through first-hand accounts of what really lies behind the glittering Olympic cosmetics, especially those moaning at or criticising the authoritarian regime.

So to what extent have Chinese officials sought to influence the IOC's ongoing discussions about blogs, as it has done on many issues including pollution? The IOC ideally wants a quiet life and has been seen to appease China on many issues.

But not in this case, some observers believe.

"Human rights groups will object to the games being held in China, where free speech is famously nonexistent," Jason Lee Miller, an editor with WebPro News, a website devoted to coverage of online business, wrote in a recent commentary. "Hence, regulating the free speech of athletes probably wouldn't look good. That could add to the IOC's motivation to champion new-found openness."

More threatening than angry Communist leaders, according to Miller, are the complaints from media conglomerates who have shelled out hundreds of millions of dollars to secure broadcasting rights to the games.

Allowing the athletes to blog freely and turn the Olympic village into a reality show of sorts could be seen as undermining the official coverage paid for by media outlets.

Indeed, the 2004 blog embargo was issued days before the games opened in Athens and was believed to have resulted from persistent defiance and complaints from the IOC's media partners.

An IOC press "subgroup" commission recently decided that blogging by athletes would not violate Olympic rules as long as they received no payment, posted their entries as a "diary or journal", and did not use photos, video, or audio obtained at the games.

Yet the rules will also most certainly be ignored on the mainland.

Olympic blogging is set to be big business, several Chinese language portal editors told this column.

Highly popular sites like Sina.com and Sohu.com have already begun to offer tantalising cash prizes for those Chinese athletes who are willing to share their experience as an Olympian.

Most Chinese sports heroes have already developed blogging as a source of income. Major websites rely on celebrity blogs to boost their brand's popularity among netizens.

"The hosting rights of a blog by a national team member in such a popular sport as football usually costs 300,000 yuan a year," said an editor at Sohu.com.

"In 2008, the price will certainly shoot up."

But will those Chinese athletes, known for living in secrecy with intense daily training, be able to set aside time for writing a proper blog entry either before or during the games so as to lay a nest egg once their athleticism gives up?

Moreover, without normal education from an early age, can mainland athletes actually write a sellable blog?

There are ways, said the Sohu editor.

"It has almost become a trend for celebrity athletes to hire a ghost blog writer," he said. "The writer will emulate the athletes' verses and style and sometimes it works very well."

As for censorship, the government may not have to concern itself too much with their type-happy sports stars. Self-censorship, like self-preservation and a few extra yuan, is the name of the game for blogging mainland athletes.


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Roads apart
China's plans for its own satellite navigation system have stunned its partners at Europe's Galileo project

BEHIND THE NEWS
Yojana Sharma
Jan 02, 2008           
     
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When China announced early last month that its home-grown Beidou-2 satellite navigation system would be used to guide traffic and monitor sports venues during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, there was astonishment in European capitals.

China has been the most important non-European partner in the European Union's £á3.4 billion (HK$38.9 billion) Galileo satellite navigation project. Beijing was to invest a substantial £á230 million in Galileo and, as a spin-off of the partnership, European companies hoped to have access to the lucrative mainland transport and communications market.

But with Chinese officials implying signals from the Beidou-2 system would be freely available to its citizens and to countries in Asia who sign up to use the Chinese system for their navigation devices, Beidou-2 would compete with Galileo for lucrative mass-market applications in Asia.

"If China were to push ahead on a global civilian system we would review our relationship because we do not have an interest in helping them into the mass market," said Paul Verhoef, head of the Galileo programme at the EU Commission's headquarters in Brussels. "In a sense, it is a competition and it will have an impact on some of the things we do with them."

China's participation in Galileo was originally to build ground stations on the mainland to receive Galileo signals and extend the European system's global reach. China also hoped to launch Galileo satellites, although it has been beaten to that by Russia.

Satellite navigation is already ubiquitous in Europe and the US. Cheap hand-held and dashboard devices provide drivers with accurate directions to any destination. The technology, rapidly replacing maps, is now being incorporated into mobile phones - a lucrative mass-market application.

Satellite navigation has also become a valuable tool in identifying and dispersing traffic jams, for port and air traffic control, for tracking forest fires and giving advance warning of tsunamis. The technology can even be used to track giant panda movements.

For now the world uses the freely available GPS (global positioning system) developed and owned by the US military. European politicians have always worried it could be switched off whenever the US military wished, with dire consequences for industries that have begun to rely on it. These fears led to the launch in 2000 of the ambitious civilian Galileo project which envisages 40 to 50 ground stations around the world.

EU Transport Commissioner Jacques Barrot said in November that Galileo would "ensure the economic and strategic independence" of the EU. But it seemed Galileo would collapse amid bickering over the spoils between private companies in Europe. Late last month, the EU rode to the rescue, taking the project out of private hands, providing a cash injection from the EU Commission's budget to ensure its survival. It is far from clear what will happen to the collaboration agreements with non-EU countries.

The mainland first joined Galileo in 2003 when EU ministers regarded China as an important emerging economic power. "We signed up with China when it was not clear what the implications would be," Mr Verhoef said. "We soon realised that if you allow such co-financing you get into complicated discussions on co-ownership.

Now that it is clear that the only ownership can be in Europe, we need a different kind of agreement."

EU officials admitted that China was unhappy with being treated as a junior partner and had downgraded its involvement. But at the same time China made it clear it wanted to be part of the newly resurrected Galileo. The first Chinese delegation arrived in Brussels on December 19, less than three weeks after the EU took over the financing of Galileo.

"The political co-operation with Galileo was always a really big thing in China," Mr Verhoef said. "It was part of China's strategic relationship with Europe - part of a strategic partnership against the US."

Steven Tsang Yui-sang, a lecturer in Chinese politics at Oxford University, said: "Galileo is a very powerful back-up system for China's military. The US may destroy Chinese satellites but they will not destroy Galileo."

There is another reason why China needs Galileo: its space scientists still can't match the quality of European engineering. "Technology transfer is an important consideration," Mr Verhoef said.

The EU's main aim is to ensure the EU and Chinese civilian systems are compatible. An accord was signed with the US last year to change the signal of GPS-3 and alter Galileo to make them interoperable. "By doing this we are trying to make Galileo more interesting for the end user. They don't want disruption or interruption. Even with China's civilian system we need to make sure it is interoperable," Mr Verhoef said.

EU officials downplay the military applications of satellite navigation, preferring to focus on Galileo's economic benefits. But defence experts say it is clear satellite navigation is the cornerstone of the next generation of smart missiles and will also pinpoint troop and armaments movements.

"I believe this project will have to have military implications at some point," said Ana Gomes, the Portuguese member of the European Parliament who led a recent debate on the funding of Galileo.

Galileo is intended to be accurate in positioning to within one metre, compared with five metres for GPS and 10 metres for Beidou-2 - as recently revealed by Xinhua.

Galileo has already spurred the US to upgrade GPS and Russia to modernise its own Glonass system. "Galileo's accuracy is more useful for military or intelligence purposes than for commercial uses," said Richard North, an adviser on Galileo to the British parliament.

"Part of the very great attraction for China to be associated with the Galileo project is the transfer to Beidou of military technology. It is hard to see how it can be stopped," Dr North said.

Both Taiwan, which has been lobbying the European Parliament on Galileo and EU-China relations this year, and the US have been putting pressure on the EU to reduce collaboration with China for that reason.

Ironically, the change to a publicly funded Galileo has pushed the economic benefits to the background in favour of its military use. "In the beginning it was true Galileo was a civilian, commercial undertaking, but after all the delays and with the public funding the security and military rationale has become stronger," said Jose Carlos Matias, a Macau-based expert on China's involvement in Galileo.

EU officials argue that Galileo's public regulated service (PRS), which involves the greatest accuracy, is encrypted and available only to organisations such as the European Police Agency (Europol), the European Anti-Fraud office, emergency response organisations such as the Maritime Safety Agency and EU peacekeeping forces.

"The Europeans have always said the high-level PRS signal would not be available to China. Frankly, no one believes them," Dr North said. "If Chinese scientists have the architecture of the system, which they must do, they can work it out to crack the code."

Jonathan Holslag, of the Brussels Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies and an adviser to the EU on China affairs, said: "It is obvious China's [Beidou-2] project is based on European technology. The Chinese know the European technical codes and standards. They take it as a point of departure for their own project."

During the December 5-6 EU-China summit in Beijing the EU stopped short of accusing China of stealing Galileo technology. Dr Holslag said EU delegates instead linked China's continued participation in Galileo to general improvements on intellectual property protection.

"Chinese collaboration on Galileo subverts the whole notion of an [EU arms] embargo," Dr North said. "It's obvious that satellite navigation technology will add to China's military capability."

However, Mr Verhoef said adequate safeguards had always been in place. "We knew when we started with China that they wanted to build their own military system. We don't want to provide technology for it. There is a very strict technology transfer regime."

This is not simply to comply with the EU embargo on arms sales since 1989 but because the EU does not want to jeopardise relations with the US.

"We have sound political and economic reasons - we don't want Washington to stop the sale of US components for Galileo," Mr Verhoef said.

There is every indication that the EU wants to avoid wrangles over technology transfer and make up for time lost. Mr Barrot said the November funding agreement would allow the EU system to be operational by 2013 - five years later than planned.

Beijing now says Beidou-2 will not be fully operational before the Shanghai World Fair in 2010. The use of the system at the Olympics will be very limited.

"The announcement about the use of [Beidou-2] at the Olympics may simply be symbolic," Mr Matias said. "It takes time to deploy a constellation of satellites."

China has five satellites in geostationary orbit. Galileo, like GPS, envisages a global system involving 30 satellites. China might be sending a signal to the EU that it wanted to be treated as an equal on satellite navigation rather than a junior partner, he said.

"Special navigation is an indication of power" on the world stage, Mr Barrot said when the EU took over Galileo's funding last month.

Certainly, that is not lost on the Chinese authorities.


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Only time will loosen the tycoons' grip


OBSERVER
Alex Lo
Jan 03, 2008           
     
  |   

  



Democratic critics have blasted Beijing and its rubber-stamp parliament's decision to delay full democracy for the city for at least another decade. But Hong Kong may well need that much time to gradually undermine the political influence and economic stranglehold that its most powerful but reactionary indigenous group has wielded over the city's life: its ageing tycoons and their offspring, who are being groomed to take over their business empires.

As a group, these people have consistently resisted meaningful constitutional changes. Even those who have not openly opposed universal suffrage have shown no enthusiasm for it. PCCW (SEHK: 0008) chief Richard Li Tzar-kai is just about the only second-generation businessman who has come out in support of full democracy. Yet the way he has treated minority shareholders over the years - since taking over Hongkong Telecom during the height of the dotcom bubble - raises questions about his democratic credentials.

Even a child knows that "one person, one vote" is not compatible with functional constituencies, which allow some local residents to have more than one vote. But Beijing and the National People's Congress Standing Committee have a tough balancing act to play. By leaving Hong Kong to sort out the details of its electoral arrangements, they left open the possibility of retaining functional constituencies in some form even after 2020. This was a nod to assure entrenched business groups that their vested interests were not being ignored.

In 10 to 13 years, the current leaders in Beijing who have given the green light to universal suffrage in the city, and possibly even a few of their successors, will have left the scene. The mainland can only become more open politically if its current economic trajectory continues.

Hong Kong's democrats and their allies will, hopefully, be replaced with younger, fresher, more charismatic and imaginative democratic leaders.

Meanwhile, our most famous tycoons will probably not be around when Hong Kong holds its first fully democratic election, but their children and grandchildren will. They are being groomed to take over the family firms, most of which are publicly listed. These companies dominate most of the key sectors of the local economy - ports, supermarkets and other retailers, power utilities, transport, medium-sized and smaller banks and, of course, the all-important property development.

This business succession process on the basis of family ties has been going on for years. The fact that it is seen as a matter of course in Hong Kong, with few eyebrows raised, says a lot about the backwardness of our supposed status as a global financial hub. If anecdotal evidence serves, the children have none of the business acumen and people skills of their fathers. But there is no doubt that they have the same arrogance, and feel the same sense of superiority and an even stronger sense of entitlement. Their politics, which is rarely ever aired in public, is likely to be just as reactionary.

Fortunately, the princes and princesses are unlikely to wield the same power and influence behind the scenes in any way that will remotely resemble their fathers or grandfathers. They will, hopefully, have neither the connections nor networks to do so. Either their businesses will go into decline or they will become more professional, to meet international standards, with senior managers hired from outside the families.

Either way, the elitism characteristic of Hong Kong for decades, which has fused political and economic powers, is likely to be further eroded with each generation. The local business royalties should go the way of the families of the so-called robber barons of the United States in the past century - retaining their wealth and exercising great philanthropy, but with diminishing political clout. This could only be for the good of Hong Kong.

Alex Lo is a senior writer at the Post


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Unequal, corrupt and expensive: signs of an ailing system


BEHIND THE NEWS
Mark O'Neill
Jan 04, 2008           
     
  |   

  



Government revenues on the mainland are rising yet the country's medical system is marked by inequality, corruption and high charges for treatment.

In a major report in 2005, the Development Research Centre of the State Council concluded that the market-driven medical reforms of the previous 10 years had failed.

And the public is increasingly disgruntled. The average household on the mainland devotes 12 per cent of its spending to health care, a high proportion even compared to developed countries.

Ministry of Health statistics show that one-third of rural patients do not go to hospital because they cannot afford to pay, and 45 per cent of those who go discharge themselves early for the same reason.

In villages in western China, the proportion of sick people who cannot afford to see a doctor is 62 per cent, and 75 per cent of patients leave hospital early.

More than 400 million people have no medical insurance of any kind.

With insufficient money from the state (which provides just 17 per cent of spending in the health sector), hospitals have to make profits from selling drugs and medical services. Few are run by charities or non-profit organisations and corruption is widespread.

From the middle of 2006, 16 government ministries and commissions began to prepare wide-ranging changes, aided by the World Health Organisation, consultants McKinsey and the World Bank. By last August, the outline of the policy had been agreed and it is now before the State Council.

On December 26, Health Minister Chen Zhu told members of the National People's Congress that the policy would aim to provide universal basic services at reasonable prices, with significantly higher input from the local and national governments.

It calls from better care in rural areas and for an independent system for the production, procurement and distribution of basic drugs.

Mr Chen said the profit-driven system had imposed heavy burdens on patients and led to a waste of resources. "We will gradually reduce the involvement of hospitals in drug sales in order to cut prices."

Qiu Renzong, of the China Academy of Social Sciences, said: "Patients cover 60-70 per cent of medical costs, which is unreasonable. The government coffers are full and it should contribute more."

The greatest difficulty will be in areas with a large number of poor, unemployed and retired people, where local governments do not have the money to offer better benefits. It is they, and not the central government, that will have to find the funds.


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Polar telescope scans the heavens for elusive dark energy


BEHIND THE NEWS
William Mullen
Jan 07, 2008           
     
  |   

  



Anywhere on Earth it would be a big telescope, as high as a seven-storey building, with a main mirror measuring 10 metres across. But at the South Pole, it seems especially large, looming over a barren plain of ice that gets colder than any other place on the planet.

Scientists have completed the instrument at the end of the world, and in recent months have swung the massive lens skyward so they can search for clues that might identify the most powerful, plentiful but elusive substance in the universe - dark energy.

First described just nine years ago, dark energy is a mysterious force so powerful that it will decide the fate of the universe. Having already overruled the laws of gravity, it is pushing galaxies away from one another, causing the universe to expand at an ever faster rate.

Though dark energy is believed to account for 70 per cent of the mass of the universe, it is invisible and virtually undetectable. Nobody knows what it is, where it is or how it behaves.

"If you see it in your basement," jokes University of Chicago cosmologist Rocky Kolb, "you'd better get back on your medication." But he knows better than most the high priority the world's governments and scientists have placed on coming to a fuller understanding of the invisible force.

"Many think dark energy is the most important problem in physics today," said Professor Kolb, who recently served as chairman of the Dark Energy Task Force, convened in 2005 by the US Department of Energy, Nasa and the National Science Foundation.

Scientists say figuring out what dark energy is would explain the history and future of the universe and generate new understanding of physical laws that, when applied to human invention, would almost certainly change the way we live - just as breakthroughs in quantum mechanics brought us the computer chip.

Swinging its huge mirror to the heavens, the South Pole Telescope has begun to search the southern polar skies for shreds of evidence of the elusive matter. Controlled remotely from the University of Chicago, the US$19.2 million telescope has quickly succeeded in its first mission: finding unknown galaxy clusters, clues to the emergence of dark energy.

The university has a stronger astronomy presence at the pole than perhaps any other institution, having built several smaller experimental telescopes there over the past 20 years. This scope, however, was the most ambitious project by far.

Its components had to be custom-built by scientists and craftsmen in several parts of the world, then shipped to Antarctica in pieces for final assembly. The largest sections of the telescope were carefully designed so each could fit into ski-equipped military transport planes. It took 25 flights in all to ferry in the 260 tonnes of telescope components.

In 2006, a crew made up mostly of graduate students spent eight hours a day outdoors to help put them all together.

"It gets really, really cold because you aren't moving much," said Joachin Vieira, 28, a graduate student in physics. "There's steel behind you, steel in front of you, and you're holding steel tools."

Earlier, they had spent three months doing a dry run on the mirror assembly in the blazing summer heat of Kilgore, Texas. At the pole, temperatures never warmed to more than minus 29 degrees Celsius. Crew members said it took hours after returning indoors before their fingers loosened up enough to type on their computers.

"We have to get these pieces into place to within 1/2000th of an inch of accuracy," said Jeff McMahon, 29, a postdoctoral physics student. "If you move, you risk screwing it up, so you stand motionless."

Also out there, slinging two-by-fours alongside ironworkers putting together the telescope's main structure, was John Carlstrom, a veteran South Pole astronomer and University of Chicago astrophysicist who is heading up the international team that designed and constructed the telescope.

The telescope can't look for dark energy directly. Instead, it is gathering information researchers hope will lead to a better understanding of the mysterious force, by tracing for the first time how dark energy emerged and has changed over billions of years.

To do that, scientists will use the South Pole Telescope to search for enormous clusters of galaxies - the last structures in the universe to be forged by the force of gravity after the Big Bang.

First, gravity formed the stars, then the galaxies, and finally vast clusters containing 50 to 1,000 galaxies. But at some point, dark energy got the upper hand over gravity, slowing down and stopping gravitational formations and instead beginning to push galaxies away from one another.

"It's not incorrect to think of dark energy as acting like negative gravity," Professor Carlstrom said. In other words, it is a force that causes all physical matter to push away, rather than collapse together.

The idea behind the South Pole Telescope is to try to trace how many galaxy clusters have formed at different periods in the history of the universe, how they formed, and then when dark energy slowed or stopped their formation.

"We're looking at a tug-of-war with dark energy and gravity trying to expand or collapse the universe," Professor Carlstrom said.

The South Pole, with its low humidity, is the best place on Earth to look for slightly warmer spots in the cosmic microwave background. Such variations in temperature are remnants of the first light in the universe.

In addition, because of the tilt of the Earth's axis, the pole for nearly half the year is bathed in darkness 24 hours a day. That allows researchers to focus the telescope continuously on one part of the sky for long periods of time.

McClatchy-Tribune


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Leadership reveals its true colours


OBSERVER
Emily Lau
Jan 08, 2008           
     
  |   

  



The National People's Congress Standing Committee decision to rule out direct elections in 2012 was not unexpected. But it was a bitter blow to those who have fought for democracy for decades. Although many Hongkongers knew it would be difficult to have a democratic government under Chinese rule, they have never given up.

The fact that most Hong Kong people wanted "double universal suffrage" - the right to elect the chief executive and all members of the Legislative Council by universal and equal suffrage - in 2012 was recognised in the report submitted by Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen.

However, the report said that pro-Beijing and pro-business political parties, and the pro-establishment district councils, were against it. Thus, the political forces that evolved under the undemocratic system oppose the will of the people. This coincided with the wishes of the rulers in Beijing.

In dashing the hopes of millions, the Standing Committee said Hong Kong people may elect the chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017 - 20 years after the change of sovereignty. Direct elections for all members of Legco will follow, maybe in 2020.

An editorial in the China Daily said that the decision "served not only as a positive answer to what Hong Kong people had been aspiring to but also as a solemn declaration to the international community ... This has demonstrated the central government's political broadmindedness and the  profound trust it has placed in Hong Kong people."

Nothing could be further from the truth. At a meeting with Standing Committee deputy secretary general Qiao Xiaoyang at Government House on December 29, I asked why the central government has denied me, and other democrats, the right to enter the mainland for more than a decade. The ban showed the leadership is petty-minded, intolerant of dissenting views and determined to marginalise outspoken politicians. Beijing also used it as a warning to the community: anyone who dared defy the wishes of the Communist Party would suffer the same fate.

To Beijing's dismay, the electorate kept returning us to office, hence a ridiculous scenario emerged - elected representatives were being barred from the mainland.

After the NPC's announcement, pro-communist figures said the provision of a timetable should help resolve disputes over the subject and create a platform for a consensus on constitutional development.

This is wishful thinking. To me, the Standing Committee's decision showed that the concept of "one country, two systems" and "a high degree of autonomy" is in tatters. As Hong Kong people digest the edict from Beijing, they are reminded it is the central government that calls the shots.

Beijing rebuffed Hong Kong people's demand for democratic government in 2004 and 2007. Given this dismal record, there is no guarantee such vague promises of universal suffrage in 2017 and 2020 will be kept.

Furthermore, the desire for full control means that only candidates acceptable to Beijing will be allowed to stand for election. In that case, it would not be a real democratic election.

Attempts to eliminate functional constituency legislators are equally difficult. Mainland officials have indicated their preference for this form of election by limited franchise, as candidates returned in this way are more susceptible to influence by Beijing.

Hong Kong people have no guarantee they can democratically elect their chief executive in 2017. There is no telling if direct elections for all Legco members will be held in 2020. Even if they are, the ghost of functional constituencies may still haunt us.

The fight for democracy must go on. A march for democracy has been organised for Sunday. I call on all supporters of universal suffrage to join us.

Emily Lau Wai-hing is a legislative councillor for The Frontier


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A punishment that does not fit the crime


LEADER

Jan 09, 2008           
     
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Life imprisonment is a punishment meant to fit the most serious of crimes, a humane alternative to the death penalty and the maximum penalty in jurisdictions that have abolished capital punishment. On the mainland, it is often handed down for crimes which might, in other circumstances, have attracted the death penalty. It is a sentence which leaves little room for the offender to make amends or to be rehabilitated into the community.

Life imprisonment is clearly not a punishment which should be used for relatively minor crimes involving property. But unless reason prevails, that is the fate of young migrant worker Xu Ting. He was jailed for life by a Guangzhou court for repeatedly taking advantage of a malfunction in an automatic teller machine to steal more than 180,000 yuan from a bank.

In these days of electronic money transactions and self-service, that is the kind of crime that calls for a strong deterrent, but hardly one that warrants emphasis on punishment to the exclusion of rehabilitation, making amends and discharging a debt to society. It is also much harsher than sentences often imposed on tycoons and officials who have committed crimes involving much larger sums.

As we report today, the court's decision shows how justice has failed to keep up with the times. The law that prescribes the penalty was passed 10 years ago, before ATMs were in common use. It is out of line with modern income levels and the damage to society of such offences. The problem is compounded by inflexibility in the sentencing system. Courts cannot deviate from sentences laid down in the penal code. Sadly, judges are reluctant to use the only remedy open to them - to seek advice from the Supreme Court. Hopefully, eight lawyers who have jointly submitted a petition to the authorities seeking changes to the code will achieve a happier outcome.

The mainland is not the only jurisdiction struggling to keep laws up to date, a problematical task at present given the pace of social and economic change. But this case shows the need for progress towards the rule of law, with a more independent judiciary that can establish a fairer system and make the punishment fit the crime.


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China Eastern vote a missed opportunity


LEADER

Jan 10, 2008           
     
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The rejection of a tie-up between China Eastern Airlines (SEHK: 0670) and Singapore Airlines has effectively turned mainland civil aviation policy on its head. Five years ago the central government restructured the industry around three state-owned carriers, Air China (SEHK: 0753, announcements, news) , China Eastern and China Southern Airlines, to ready it for competition in more open skies.

Shanghai-based China Eastern's plan to sell a 25 per cent stake to Singapore Airlines and Temasek Holdings, in return for an injection of HK$7.16 billion in capital and international management expertise, was arguably consistent with this strategy. It won blessing at State Council level and from the State Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (Sasac), ultimate owner of the airlines.

In an apparent policy U-turn, however, the government remained silent when the parent of Beijing-based Air China, China National Aviation (CNAC) Company - itself a shareholder - stepped up a campaign to block the deal. This culminated in a promise to make an offer in the near future of no less than HK$5 a share, compared with Singapore's HK$3.80 for newly listed Hong Kong shares.

In the absence of any reaffirmation of official support for the Singapore offer, minority shareholders understandably voted against it in favour of CNAC's promised bid. In doing so, they have rejected a badly needed injection of capital - not a takeover - from a prospective foreign partner with a proven track record.

Instead, they may have cleared the way for CNAC's vision for a super airline on the mainland - in effect a two-major-airline policy for a population of 1.3 billion. An industry open to foreign partnerships has now been subjected to the kind of protection afforded strategic industries in the national interest.

When it came to the vote the Singapore offer was too low, though it represented an acceptable premium to China Eastern's share price when it was made last May. The share price has since risen to nearly double the offer price. The problem was the surge in mainland stock markets, coupled with the time it takes state-owned companies to win regulatory approval for foreign investment proposals - commonly six to nine months. This raised the sensitive political issue of the so-called cheap sale of state assets to foreigners. Mainland regulators have recently banned several proposed deals in which foreigners were to buy stakes in Chinese industries because surging share prices made the offers seem too low.

In this climate, it seems that regulatory approval does not necessarily guarantee that a deal will be closed. That is an uncertain and difficult environment in which to do business. It does not encourage foreign investors to make the commitment in time and money needed to secure approval in the first place. It is arguable therefore that the run-up in the markets potentially discourages injections of badly needed capital and expertise.

The shareholders' decision may make sense on paper now. But it represents the short-term mentality of investors in the booming mainland markets. In the longer term Singapore Airlines would have been locked into commitments to China Eastern that would have been positive for earnings and the stock price.

It is hard to see benefits from the outcome for anyone apart from Air China, whose parent has succeeded in preventing a rival from gaining capital and expertise. Singapore Airlines may have declined to enter a bidding war, but the affair has not played itself out. CNAC has yet to put a solid offer on the table and the government and regulatory authorities still have the last say.


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Accountability? It's still a foreign concept here


STEPHEN VINES

Jan 11, 2008           
     
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So, Lily Chiang Lai-lei, the chairwoman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, has finally decided to step aside despite previously saying that there was no need because she was innocent of fraud charges.

Instead of criticising her feeble attempt to hang on to office, her colleagues praised her for a supposedly dignified decision. No doubt they also breathed a sigh of relief, having avoided a battle to get her to go. In Hong Kong, holders of public office routinely seem to believe that they can cling to office while criminal charges or other major questions about their integrity remain unresolved. Elsewhere, such uncertainty ensures the rapid relinquishing of the public stage by those involved. Here, this practice is either ignored or only followed under extreme pressure after unwarranted delay.

Chiang leads Hong Kong's premier business body and is therefore expected to be beyond reproach. A trial may well reveal that she does indeed fulfil this requirement but, in the meantime, her predicament inevitably causes embarrassment for the organisation she leads.

She retains the title of chairwoman while fighting the criminal charges and could, in defence of her decision not to quit, cite a number of precedents for staying put - starting right at the top, where senior officials deem themselves not to be responsible for their actions, or are quick in passing the blame to others. The concept of "the buck stops here" is only accepted with extreme reluctance.

It took an unseemly period of time before Antony Leung Kam-chung  resigned as financial secretary in the wake of an enormous scandal involving his purchase of a Lexus ahead of a car sales tax rise he was about to announce in his budget. And when he went, he departed under a shower of praise from his bosses.

Even more fulsome praise greeted the departure of Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee from the post of security secretary after her maladroit handling of the introduction of anti-subversion laws succeeded in mobilising some of the largest street protests seen in Hong Kong. To this day, she continues to present herself as a victim.

Lower down the government tree are other officials who give the impression that high standards of probity and competence are hardly requirements for senior positions. Most people have now forgotten the hapless Wong Ho-sang, who failed to understand the problem of heading the Inland Revenue Department while his wife ran a company giving advice on taxation.

In a society where the most senior officials are reluctant to accept responsibility for their actions, it is unsurprising that this careless attitude spreads to the political sector. When, for example, Gary Cheng Kai-nam was exposed as providing paid advice to parties with a vested interest in legislation that he was helping to formulate - without declaring an interest - his Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of Hong Kong allies did their best to protect him. They only backed off when he faced criminal charges and was subsequently jailed.

And the benefit of the doubt appears to have operated even more spectacularly in favour of the convicted fraudster Chim Pui-chung, who emerged from jail with his trademark smile and proceeded to regain election in one of the Legislative Council's functional constituencies.

Mr Chim is not alone among former convicted criminals serving as legislators; the National People's Congress Standing Committee has, among its members, Tsang Hin-chi, convicted not once but twice of fraud. Were it the case that this spirit of forgiveness was extended to all criminals who have served their time, it might be easier to understand why such generosity seems to apply to prominent government supporters.

So, Chiang had reason to ask why she should step aside. But the question is not for her alone. How much longer will the Hong Kong public tolerate leaders who think that setting an example and taking responsibility is somehow none of their business?

Stephen Vines is a Hong Kong-based journalist and entrepreneur


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Japan fumbles on false dilemmas


Brad Glosserman
Jan 14, 2008           
     
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A gloom is settling over Tokyo. A recent visit revealed deep and deepening frustration and anxiety as Japanese contemplate strategic options. Decision-makers in Tokyo have framed their choices in overly simple terms that do not reflect the range of possibilities in foreign and security policy. Worse, Japanese behaviour today may limit future choices. While the roots of Japan's insecurity will endure, Japanese can take steps to ease anxieties, create more options and raise the comfort level.

Political developments in Tokyo and Washington are the primary source of anxiety. The Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) victory in Upper House elections in July plunged Japan into uncharted territory. The DPJ appears determined to force a general election, fighting the government on every issue. This has resulted in virtual political paralysis.

While some recalibration of priorities after the departures of prime ministers Junichiro Koizumi and Shinzo Abe was expected, the unblinking focus on domestic politics - the phrase "navel gazing" was used in several conversations - has irritated even friends of the alliance. It is distracting decision makers and draining the energy from Japanese institutions. To take one example: two countries did not send a head of state or cabinet-level delegation to the recent Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland: Sudan and Japan. Not surprisingly, no one is expecting anyone to make the tough domestic political decisions that are needed to continue the transformation of the US-Japan security alliance.

Japanese are equally nervous about political developments in the United States. Tokyo instinctively distrusts Democrats, who are thought to be soft on security, captive to economic interests and ready to bash Japan. Memories of Bill Clinton's 1998 trip to China are quick to surface: his failure to stop in Tokyo sparked the term "Japan passing". I heard frequent references to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's recent Foreign Affairs article - calling US-China ties the most important bilateral relationship - and much angst about what her victory might mean for Japan.

This first false dichotomy - Republicans are good for the US-Japan relationship, Democrats are bad - is based on a mistaken assumption that Japan and China are competing for American attention. Tokyo fears Washington and Beijing will make common cause to deal with shared problems and issues; that China, with its size, resources (including a permanent seat on the UN Security Council) and confidence, has assets Japan cannot match; and that the US will become frustrated with Japanese inaction. For many Japanese, Beijing's role in the six-party talks and the evolution of US policy towards North Korea confirm the fragile alignment of US and Japanese interests and are a sign of things to come.

Japan has responded by clinging tighter to the US and searching for ways to differentiate Tokyo from Beijing. The call for "values-based diplomacy" - which aligns Japan with Washington, Australia, India and Europe - is the most visible manifestation of this effort. This policy echoes those embraced at the outset of the Meiji Restoration in 1867, when strategists pondered whether to look to Asia or the west. Japan turned its back on Asia, swiftly modernised and returned to Asia with a vengeance.

While talk of an "East Asian Community" would seem to resurrect that dichotomy, the choice today is a false one. Japan need not pick one or the other. Japan is a member of both communities: Asian by geography, but western by virtue of its post-war political and social evolution. Given its global interests - economic and political - Japan cannot be a purely "Asian" country. The key in this choice is in balancing concerns.

That is a constant and difficult process. Policymakers must be vigilant, scanning the horizon for challenges that they must then be prepared to confront. A reactive diplomacy will not serve Japan well.

While adjustments will continue, Japan can devise a framework to guide strategic thinking. First, Japan should recognise that its choice is not Asia or the west. It is an integral part of both communities and must engage both. Failure to identify with Asia, or to participate fully in the development of Asian institutions, will marginalise Tokyo within the region. Tokyo will not "speak for" one or the other - as has sometimes been suggested - but can provide insight into how each is seen by the other.

Second, Japan should seek a better and more stable relationship with China. They are the region's two biggest countries: positive relations would make almost anything possible. At a minimum, they are the foundation of an Asian community. This process appears to be under way, but is fragile and must be nurtured.

Third, Tokyo should adopt an inclusive outlook and not feel threatened by improved relations between Washington and Beijing. Just as a positive Japan-China relationship will not threaten Tokyo's ties to Washington, improved US-China relations need not undermine the US-Japan alliance. The key is ensuring that the US sees the value of an alliance with Japan; one asset will be an improved Japan-China relationship. Japan should also reach out to South Korea to ensure that Seoul doesn't feel left out of regional deliberations.

Fourth, and easiest of all, Japan should court more Democrats in the US (or at least stop bad-mouthing them). The bilateral security alliance endures because of its bipartisan support. Dismissing Democrats' views and bemoaning what a Democratic administration would do to the alliance alienates friends and allies.

These suggestions may seem simple, but they demand a radical change in how Japan sees itself and its place in the world. Japan must see itself as an actor shaping international politics, rather than a country merely reacting to external developments. That does not mean adopting a great-power mentality; it does require thinking more clearly about Japanese national interests and acting to protect them. This transformation will not be easy, but the stakes could not be higher.

Brad Glosserman is executive director of the Pacific Forum CSIS. Distributed by Pacific Forum CSIS


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Preventative medicine


JONG-WHA LEE

Jan 15, 2008           
     
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The adage used to be that when the US sneezed, Asia caught a cold. These days, some people are saying that when the US catches a cold, Asia merely sneezes. Or, in other words, they say the Asian economy is decoupling from the US. In actual fact, in an increasingly globalised economy, it matters little who sneezes or who catches the cold. It is about formulating the right medicine - the right policy mix - to stay healthy and avoid a germ becoming a systemic infection.

For emerging East Asia, which is made up of open and export-dependent economies, a cautious policy design for 2008 is critical. What's needed is a judicious mix of macroeconomic policies and continued strengthening of financial systems, and improving risk management and the regulatory and supervisory framework. China appears on the way to greater exchange rate flexibility, for example, but more could be done, along with speeded up financial sector reform and capital outflow liberalisation.

Gross domestic product growth in the region remains strong, but it is expected to ease from the estimated 8.5 per cent in 2007 to 8 per cent this year. A soft landing of the US economy - which will also help avoid a global slowdown - should mitigate the effects of the expected regional moderation in economic growth.

Thus far, the US is likely to avoid a sharp recession, though a prolonged slowdown may be in the offing. It is clear the US wants to avoid catching a cold - even if the nasty germ originated there - and maintains an array of policy tools that can supply the required medication. This is important for emerging East Asia, because while the US may avoid a recession this time around, a hard landing and ensuing global slowdown would significantly affect the region's economic performance, particularly given the continuing strong direct and indirect trade ties.

But, within the region, inflationary pressures are building. Rising prices in both goods and assets limits authorities' ability to lower policy rates. China's juggernaut economy hit an inflation rate of 6.9 per cent in November - the highest in 11 years. It needs to continue raising interest rates to stem inflation and avoid the economy overheating further. The rest of the region is also showing rising inflationary pressures - largely from oil, food and other commodity prices - and the potential of asset bubbles forming in sectors such as property and equities is worrisome. Then there is the US dollar depreciation, which translates into continued strong appreciation pressures on the region's currencies. Market intervention by central banks to ease those pressures leads to increased liquidity in the financial system, adding to inflation and asset prices. Thus, slower growth coupled with rising inflation and appreciating currencies pose major policy challenges.

The limited impact of the US subprime turmoil on emerging East Asian economies has led some economists to wonder whether the region is decoupling from US economic influence.

True, the region's resilience stems a great deal from better economic policies and a strengthened institutional framework since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. But, with few exceptions, emerging East Asia's financial systems remain relatively unsophisticated. That is another major reason why it remained largely immune to the US subprime mess.

Nevertheless, continued financial volatility must be monitored closely as tighter short-term funding, persistent risk aversion, along with credit risk repricing, could result in a reversal of capital flows to the region. In several emerging East Asian economies, these inflows, along with rapid money supply and credit growth, have led to the potential for significant asset bubbles forming.

So it is really not that important whether emerging East Asia is decoupling from events in the US. The point is that emerging East Asia's potential weakness is evident not merely in the financial sector, but also in its ability to build and sustain monetary stability that best provides preventative medicine against external shocks.

Jong-wha Lee is head of the Asian Development Bank's Office of Regional Economic Integration


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Spring in winter


FRANK CHING

Jan 16, 2008           
     
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This year marks the 30th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-Japanese Treaty of Peace and Friendship, and all signs are that both countries are determined to use this symbolic date to consolidate the bilateral relationship and to take it to a new high. The symbolism is particularly strong: that treaty was signed when Takeo Fukuda, father of the current prime minister, Yasuo Fukuda, was prime minister.

Yasuo Fukuda's four-day visit to China last month helped improve relations to such an extent that both he and Premier Wen Jiabao said that "spring" has returned to the relationship even though it is the dead of winter.

In the 2,000-year history of Sino-Japanese relations, one nation was always strong while the other was weak. This is the first time when China and Japan are both strong, which makes it much more difficult to create a sense of trust and friendship rather than one of suspicion and rivalry.

However, Mr Fukuda's attitude is one of welcoming China's rise rather than fearing it. His vision is one of Japan and China working together to overcome common problems, such as battling terrorism and coping with climate change and other environmental problems.

Mr Fukuda is right in describing 2008 as "a very rare opportunity" for the development of bilateral ties. The fact that the son of the man who signed the friendship treaty is now Japan's prime minister creates an opportunity for both sides to bolster the relationship, especially as the younger Mr Fukuda is much like his father and very different from his immediate predecessors.

Even though Mr Fukuda kept most cabinet members who he inherited from his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, there is already a notable change in the handling of historical issues.

The Japanese government has agreed to reinstate history textbook references about the Imperial Japanese Army driving civilians into committing mass suicide in Okinawa in 1945. The previous government had ordered that all references to the involvement of the Imperial Japanese Army in the suicides be deleted.

Instead of trying to varnish Japan's past, Mr Fukuda promised in Beijing to "look squarely" at Japan's wartime militarism, because "we can prevent mistakes in the future only if we properly look at the past, and have the courage and wisdom to repent what we must repent".

Mr Fukuda's visit carried some risks, as there were some in the Japanese camp who did not want him to travel to Beijing until there was an agreement on the biggest outstanding problem between the two: the dispute over gas deposits in the East China Sea, where Beijing and Tokyo have overlapping claims. The two countries had wanted to resolve the issue by the second half of 2007, but an agreement remains elusive.

Mr Fukuda's decision to visit Qufu , the hometown of Confucius, was an inspired attempt to demonstrate to the people of both countries that they share common philosophical and cultural roots that bind them in a special relationship.

While the visit went well, the relationship is still delicate and must be nurtured. The visit to China was risky: Mr Fukuda is not in a strong position domestically, and he may have to call an election in a few months, the outcome of which is uncertain.

The two countries have decided to raise the East China Sea talks to vice-ministerial level before President Hu Jintao visits Japan in April, when the cherry blossoms are in full bloom.

Another issue, as Mr Fukuda put it, is the need to "nip mutual distrust in the bud while fostering confidence building through enhanced transparency". A Chinese warship recently visited Japan, and a Japanese naval vessel will reciprocate this year. What is needed is great Chinese transparency in military matters.

If these issues are resolved, the relationship will go from strength to strength. But if, say, an agreement on joint development continues to be elusive, then no matter how good the atmosphere, Sino-Japanese relations will not bloom, even if the cherry blossoms do.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator


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America's misguided meddling in Pakistan


Doug Bandow
Jan 17, 2008           
     
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For years, the United States has attempted to mould Pakistan. The result is not pretty: an unstable, undemocratic state that possesses nuclear weapons, border provinces that offer safe haven to Taleban and al-Qaeda forces, and a people who loathe the American government. The murder of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto is merely another blow to Washington's plans.

Since 2001, Pakistan has been a frontline state in allied efforts to eradicate al-Qaeda and suppress the Taleban in Afghanistan. Yet, despite receiving more than US$10 billion from the US since September 11, Islamabad has been an indifferent ally in the "war on terror".

Pakistan also embodies the problem of nuclear proliferation, having built an "Islamic bomb" despite Washington's opposition. Worse, it has sent planeloads of nuclear materials around the world. Finally, President Pervez Musharraf has paid only the barest pretence to democratic reforms. Not that Pakistani democracy, which tended to alternate irregularly with military rule, met America's standards.

Former president Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, his daughter Benazir and Nawaz Sharif developed nuclear weapons, allied with the Taleban, supported Middle Eastern militants and tolerated religious persecution at home. They were thought to be profoundly corrupt.

For decades, the US provided aid, sold weapons, and offered diplomatic support to whatever regime happened to be in power in Islamabad. Yet America had minimal success in promoting domestic reform.

Only by threatening to bomb did the Bush administration get Islamabad's attention after September 11. Thus, Pakistan was forced to drop the Taleban regime as a client and enlist in the coalition against al-Qaeda. But it still resisted full co-operation with the US.

Mr Musharraf's growing isolation led the Bush administration to push even harder on the democratic front. It applied strong pressure on the president to allow Bhutto back into the country.

Washington sold this as a grand step forward on the return to democracy, but Mr Musharraf saw the political advantages of winning parliamentary legitimacy for his continued rule.

With Bhuttos's assassination, the administration's plan is in ruins. But the usual suspects still shout advice from the sidelines and concoct grand new initiatives. Yet Pakistanis don't much care what the US wants.

Indeed, there's no reason to believe that any civilian Pakistani government would be notably more competent, less corrupt and more willing to combat Islamic extremism than past civilian regimes, let alone more likely to survive.

Under such circumstances, the best strategy for the US government is to distance itself from authorities in Islamabad. Co-operation would still be necessary to deal with the Taleban and al-Qaeda.

Attempting to reorder the globe is a fantasy. Decades of plans and programmes designed to remake Pakistan have come to naught.

Doug Bandow is the Robert A. Taft Fellow at the American Conservative Defence Alliance and a former special assistant to president Ronald Reagan


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Carbon loading
Instead of meeting its 2010 emissions targets, Japan is belching more smog as energy use rises

BEHIND THE NEWS
Cheung Chi-fai
Jan 18, 2008           
     
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Fierce winter cold and snow used to be the primary weather risks facing the 5.7 million residents of Hokkaido in northern Japan. That changed last year. The snow that arrived in December, some Sapporo citizens said, was different - the falls were lighter and sporadic, and interrupted by occasional showers.

A few months ago, Hokkaido recorded its hottest summer in 80 years, with temperatures hitting 35 degrees Celsius in some places. The heatwave reportedly killed some elderly people and prompted an increasing number of people to install air conditioners in their homes, a rare move for Hokkaido citizens in the past. Some now predict air conditioning might become more popular in people's homes than renewable energy devices.

Just weeks after Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda visited China and agreed to help the mainland with climate change technology, it seems Tokyo is battling on the home front with the environmental and social effects of climate change.

Experts now say the warmer climate is shifting the energy usage pattern of Hokkaido residents, whose greenhouse gas emission per capita is already 1.4 times the national average.

Hokkaido officials admit that rather than being on track to meet the target of a 9.2 per cent reduction in emissions from 1990 to 2010, the island's emission levels rose by 14.2 per cent in 2006.

The chance of complying with the 2010 target now looks remote, unless the public and businesses - primarily the tourism and food sector - are better mobilised to change the way they use and conserve energy.

At a national level, Japan, which accounts for 5 per cent of the world's emissions, has also reported missing the Kyoto Protocol 6 per cent reduction target, by over-emitting close to 7 per cent above the 1990 level.

The nation is among other developed economies, including Spain and Portugal, that are yet to reverse the trend of rising emissions in their bid to satisfy the Kyoto requirements between 2008 and 2012. "We are in a very difficult position now and there is intense debate going on within society on what more can be done," said Yuzo Yagai, chief administrator of the climate change policy division of the Ministry of the Environment.

The missed targets in Japan are partly due to a runaway rise in emissions in the commercial and household sectors, of 40 per cent and 30 per cent respectively over 1990 levels.

Mr Yagai said increasing office automation and the proliferation of home appliances had resulted in more energy used than was being offset through measures such as energy-efficient products.

Another problem unique to Japan was the temporary closure of some of its 54 nuclear power generation facilities, which have experienced technical problems and earthquake damage in recent years. These closures alone accounted for a huge portion of the excess emissions - about 3 per cent of the total 1.34 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted in 2006.

Nuclear power has played a vital role in keeping Japan running, providing one-third of the nation's energy supply.

The largest operator, Tokyo Electric Power, runs 17 plants, which have helped to stop the production of 78 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year.

However, poor positioning of sites on or near fault lines has fed public scepticism about nuclear power. Last July, a quake rocked a nuclear power station in Niigata prefecture, leading to the closure of reactor units and subsequent power shortage in Tokyo. "The public must understand that nuclear power is a necessity. But we can't help it that opposition surfaces every time there is a nuclear power plant incident," said Issei Takaki, a spokesman for the Fukushima Daichi nuclear power station.

While reopening some of the reactors remains uncertain, plans for new reactors have been met with increasing resistance by local authorities and the long-term plan to boost the nuclear energy usage rate to 40 per cent has been thrown into uncertainty.

To try to meet reduction targets by 2012, tough measures have been suggested by the cabinet, including a domestic emissions trading scheme designed for up to 150 major manufacturing facilities.

A carbon tax - proposed at 600-700 yen (HK$43-HK$51) per tonne of carbon dioxide emitted - will also be imposed on product and services providers, in the hope that customer demand will shift to eco-products.

Complementing the tax measure is a proposed scheme to have the carbon footprint of products and services labelled to help consumers pick the ones with least impact.

Japan also plans to strengthen forestry management to help absorb more carbon dioxide and intends to buy up to 100 million tonnes of emission-reduction credits through the UN's clean development mechanism in the long term. Nippon Steel alone has secured 11 million tonnes of credits through its two joint-venture steel mills in China.

All the proposals were raised last year for public consultation before former prime minister Shinzo Abe stepped down in September.

Although the replacement of Mr Abe with Mr Fukuda may have little impact on the overall direction pursued, no concrete decision will be made until March.

But some of the proposals have already attracted strong opposition from business and industry heavyweights. They have expressed fears that further emission regulations or taxes might mean losing their international competitive edge, particularly to China or India, and may trigger the relocation of production lines overseas.

The worries are borne out by the steelmaking sector, which, although it accounts for 10 per cent to 20 per cent of the nation's total emissions, views itself as the most energy-efficient steel industry in the world.

Nippon Steel, which has lost the title of world's biggest steelmaker to India's Mittal Steel, has strongly opposed the proposed carbon tax and domestic emissions-trading scheme. "If all countries imposed the same tax, it would be fine. But if it is not introduced in China or India it will be detrimental to our international competitiveness," said Hironobu Hose, group manager of the company's environmental relations department.

Mr Hose said emission trading was only a market mechanism in disguise, effectively instructing industries on how much energy they could use.

Branding it a "speculative money game", Mr Hose said the European emissions-trading market could only benefit financial agencies, pointing out that only 50 out of 11,000 transactions were related to manufacturing facilities.

Mr Hose said Nippon Steel, consuming 4 per cent to 5 per cent of Japan's total energy, had invested massively in research to cut energy use and recycle materials, enabling the company almost to meet a target of 10 per cent emissions cuts.

He warned that an emission trading scheme would only divert research money away from finding new technological breakthroughs.

Were existing technologies adopted by all steelmakers across the world, it was estimated that up to 2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions could be avoided, representing one-thirteenth of the world total, he said.

However, it might be financially difficult for developing nations to obtain the technologies developed and used by t big players in the industry. Many like Nippon Steel believed that such a transfer of technology was, in fact, the jurisdiction of business and not part of government assistance, he said.

Koji Tsuruoka, director-general for global issues at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said emerging economies and major greenhouse gas emitters such as China and India should be financially capable of adopting the technologies.

"These [technologies] are business commodities. The investment and intellectual property is privately owned. Perhaps [the Japanese government] can buy them and give it to these countries. But why do we have to do this? Indian businesses are doing very well now," he said.

Mr Tsuruoka said Japan went through a painful process of cleaning up environmental pollution and saving energy in the past, and repeated that the present global warming challenges needed concerted international efforts to address them.

In the 1970s and 80s, Japanese manufacturers could still rely on expansion to cover the costs of innovation in energy savings and materials recycling, which allowed Japan to double its GDP while keeping oil consumption steady.

But the scope for marginal improvement is getting smaller and perhaps even more costly. "Meeting the target of 14 per cent emissions cutbacks is almost impossible. It may be achieved either if our population or the economy shrinks by 14 per cent. But this is not acceptable," he said.

Mr Tsuroka said global co-operation was needed to address climate change and one's neglect might be detrimental to others, particularly to developing nations.

"When you look at this global challenge, it will affect all of us. But the developed nations will be able to cope with the impact much better than developing countries, which do not have the capacity," he said.


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The Party Line
201 days to go

OLYMPIC COUNTDOWN
Martin Zhou
Jan 20, 2008           
     
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There are many superlatives used to describe the Beijing Olympics - the best, greatest, most important and so forth.

So it comes as little surprise to learn organisers Bocog are assembling the biggest volunteer workforce in the history of the games.

"A total of 100,000 volunteers will work at the Olympics across the venues in August and the following September Paralympics," said Liu Jian, Bocog's volunteer department chief.

So far, 80 per cent of the positions on offer have been filled, hand-picked from 800,000 - and counting - applicants. On top of the final tally, Bocog will also enlist an army of 400,000 volunteers to work at 500 volunteer stations across the capital over the two-week games period - the largest-ever total of eager, unpaid Olympic do-gooders in history.

Yet amid the bombastic Olympic statistics, some are concerned the sheer number of volunteers and the way they are being chosen might compromise the quality of service at the much-anticipated extravaganza.

The Sydney 2000 and Athens 2004 editions each had a volunteer workforce half the size or less than Beijing's.

Those cities called upon volunteers from across their civic societies - from tramp to top CEO - to donate time and a helpful smile to the Olympics.

Not so in China.

This column has learnt volunteers are being heavily vetted for their political suitability during a strict recruiting programme run by the Communist Youth League (CYL), a political force of the mainland's aristocratic-like Communist Party.

Bocog's volunteers chief Liu has a dual role. He is head of the Beijing CYL branch - and all three of his deputies hold top posts in the same organisation. Their volunteer recruiting strategy is simple: recruit only young, impressionable, patriotic and party-loyal students from the nation's top universities.

The organising body has signed contracts with more than two dozen Beijing universities and colleges to provide volunteer workers for all 76 Olympic and Paralympic venues, including 31 competition sites.

For instance, students from the prestigious Peking University have been picked to fill the 2,000 volunteer jobs at five stadiums, including the centrepiece, the Bird's Nest.

One can argue that there is no problem in this. But others worry the Olympics will be partly run by an extremely young and inexperienced volunteer workforce who have to cater to the whims of thousands of visitors from around the world.

A recent survey found that a staggering 97 per cent of the 80,000 volunteers already appointed for Beijing 2008 are aged under 35. In Athens 2004, this age group made up 62 per cent of the volunteer workforce, while in Sydney fewer than 60 per cent of volunteers were aged under 45.

If not politically motivated, then ageism is rife in the Beijing 2008 volunteer recruitment drive.

According to two campus recruiters who talked to this column, it is the newly arrived who are keenest to serve the party's call for a "One World, One Dream" Beijing Olympics.

"There has been an overwhelming response from the students to the recruitment campaign, but almost all are freshmen and sophomores," said one recruiter from Peking University.

While acknowledging the encouraging enthusiasm from youngsters towards the games, experts remain cautious about the impact of the trend.

"In previous host countries, volunteers displayed a higher level of commitment and skills than those applicants here in Beijing," Wei Na, the deputy of Beijing Olympics Humanity Research Centre, a government-affiliated think tank, told China News Weekly.

Li Shixin, a Bocog volunteer department official, admitted that 40,000 of the 80,000 volunteers recruited to date were university students - but he insisted Bocog was "sourcing the workforce from a wide spectrum of social backgrounds".

However, a reliable and highly informed source close to the Bocog volunteer department told this column that state-owned enterprise employees and civil servants made up a disproportionate number of the 80,000 volunteers recruits signed up so far.

"It is an unwritten rule during background checks to give preference to suitable students - especially when it comes to volunteers working in the venues," said the source. "Screening is a little bit more relaxed for applicants for the city volunteer jobs, which are usually designated away from the media spotlight areas such as the main Olympic sites.

"But generally, [Bocog] wants to recruit politically predictable and controllable people, and those with connections with the government in their daily life are deemed perfect volunteers. It has nothing to do with whether you are a Party member or not. Instead, it's a matter of whether your life is within the reach of the Party's control."

Government-run Bocog is making sure its volunteers will refrain from any attempt to exploit the media exposure and embarrass the country by voicing any dissent.

The Southern Weekly newspaper recently revealed that Bocog was now training 10,000 plus volunteer drivers - all recruited from government agencies and state-owned enterprises in Beijing.

This workforce will provide commuting services to athletes and their coaches and have access to core areas of each stadium.

"I think the reason they source the volunteer drivers from government agencies is to be sure such that people from this background will not cause trouble," Yu Dayong, an official and an Olympics volunteer from the Beijing municipal government's Agriculture Committee, told the respected current affairs magazine.

However, political correctness is one thing, competence another.

And the mainland's calculated, fail-safe volunteer recruiting programme merely reflects the country's strict day-to-day governance - and the desperate extra efforts being made to project a trouble-free image to the rest of the world during the Olympics.

This begs the question that by narrowing its focus to impressionable students, patriotic civil servants and state- owned enterprise employers, will the quality of the volunteer workforce be affected and the standard of service subsequently suffer?

Like so much of the speculation taking place as the build up intensifies, we'll not know the answer until the party is over in September.


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