The book ban that serves no purpose


LEADER

Sep 28, 2009           
     
  |   

  



Journalist Xiao Jiansheng's academically inclined book Chinese Civilisation Revisited was sure to cause a stir among mainland leaders. Intellectual debate always prompts disquiet in Beijing. Sensitivity was heightened by the volume being put out to coincide with the 60th anniversary of the Communist Party taking power and links to a Hong Kong publisher perceived as controversial. Predictably, it has been banned.

The decision raises the usual issues of the party's fragility and the lack of freedom of speech. If such works were allowed to openly circulate, the nation would be so much the richer. Discussion of issues raised - in this case, traditional values - would further development. A single book will not mean the downfall of 5,000 years of Chinese civilisation.

Xiao's work has suffered the same fate as the similarly controversial book The Ugly Chinaman and the Crisis of Chinese Culture and the documentary River Elegy. Its banning on the mainland does not mean it will go unread, though: authorities' rejection of it has ensured it will now be eagerly sought. Copies published in Hong Kong will make their way across the border. Digital versions will spread virus-like through the internet.

The book was approved for publication two years ago by the publishing arm of the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. It looks broadly at Chinese history and does not touch on the past six decades. Bao Pu, of Hong Kong's New Century Press, wants to publish it; he is the son of Bao Tong , the most senior official jailed over the 1989 Tiananmen protests.

Book bannings are self-defeating. The academics who were going to be Xiao's main audience will still find a way to read his book. But attention beyond learning and research institutions has been drawn to it by the ban. Sales and demand will increase. A publication that may otherwise have caused only small ripples will now be a must-read. Authorities would have done much better to have practised what the constitution itself stipulates: allow freedom of speech and the free flow of information. The nation will be richer for it.


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ss=China&s=News

Cause for celebration


FRANK CHING

Sep 30, 2009           
     
  |   

  



Tomorrow is the 60th anniversary of the establishment of the People's Republic of China. This is a major landmark and a time for reflection for both the Chinese leadership and the people. Looking back, they have much to be pleased about. Unlike the United States, which is involved in two debilitating wars, China is at peace. Indeed, this is a situation that Beijing has worked hard to bring about over the past three decades, as Chinese leaders forswore class struggle and world revolution to focus on economic development.

Ten years ago, when the nation celebrated its 50th anniversary, it had just recovered Hong Kong from Britain after a century and a half of colonialism and was poised to take back Macau from Portugal. The late paramount leader Deng Xiaoping's agenda for national unification was making progress. The only exception was Taiwan, then governed by Lee Teng-hui, its first directly elected president, who had declared relations between the two sides to be "special state-to-state relations".

Today, Taiwan is no longer pushing the independence envelope. Under its president, Ma Ying-jeou, Taipei is anxious not to rub Beijing the wrong way and has just denied a visa to exiled Uygur leader Rebiya Kadeer, whom Beijing accuses of fomenting violence in Xinjiang . The two economies are becoming increasingly integrated. While reunification is still a distant prospect, from Beijing's standpoint, it seems closer than at any time since the two sides separated six decades ago.

Ten years ago, China was still feeling bitter that Sydney, not Beijing, was going to host the 2000 Olympics. The prize had seemed so close but, in the end, it eluded China's grasp. This year, however, China is still basking in the adulation for its hosting of the summer Games last year. It was, in a real sense, China's coming-out party, and what a party it was. Soon, it will be Shanghai's turn as it plays host to Expo 2010.

Ten years ago, China marked 20 years of continuous growth after the launching of its reform and opening-up policy. Gross domestic product had reached US$1 trillion, putting China in 6th place worldwide.

Since then, the country's GDP has more than quadrupled and today China is the world's third-largest economy, behind only the United States and Japan. Its growth seems inexorable. While the US and Japanese economies are shrinking this year, as a result of the global financial crisis, China continues to grow at 8 per cent per annum.

While many see the US as being in long-term decline, China's rise seems unstoppable. Increasingly, it is seen as a global engine of growth. Virtually all countries are courting Beijing.

So there is much to celebrate. And, as the rehearsals leading up to the grand military parade in Beijing show, the leadership is leaving nothing to chance to ensure its success. Just as in 1999, the leadership has approved 50 slogans to be used. Some are the same as a decade ago while others reflect new realities.

Thus, while in 1999 Chinese were exhorted to: "Stress study, stress politics and stress healthy trends" - a campaign launched by then-leader Jiang Zemin - this year's slogans emphasise harmony, a concept favoured by President Hu Jintao.

In 1999, there was a slogan relating to Taiwan that said: "Adhere to the policy of 'peaceful unification, one country two systems' and complete the mission of national unification!"

Interestingly, this slogan no longer appears this year, perhaps to take account of Taiwanese opposition to "one country, two systems". There is still a slogan about "one country, two systems", but it refers only to Hong Kong and Macau. Where Taiwan is concerned, there is a slogan that calls for adherence to the "One-China principle" to bring about peaceful reunification. But the formula "one country, two systems" is conspicuously omitted.

And so, while Beijing often appears to be unchanging and immoveable, the slight differences in slogans between those approved for this year's use and the ones for 1999 show that the Chinese government does change and is prepared to make adjustments - to its slogans at least, if not to its policies.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator. frank.ching@scmp.com


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... lumns&s=Opinion

Off the rails
Taiwan's loss-making high-speed railway is reason enough not to build one in Hong Kong

Jake van der Kamp
Oct 02, 2009           
     
  |   

  



Political heavyweights from across the border have been loud recently in telling us that we will be left behind unless we immediately rush to pour tens, perhaps hundreds, of billions of dollars into fancy new transport projects. Our bureaucrats in Hong Kong may still be a little deaf to this call to action, thank heavens, but in Taiwan the authorities have long had their ears open to it and welcomed it.

They have poured NT$450 billion (HK$107 billion) into a 345-kilometre high-speed railway from Taipei to Kaohsiung, a marvel that speeds passengers between the two cities in little more than an hour.

And the result? Taiwan has been left behind. The full scale of the debacle only became apparent last week with the news that a fresh civil servant has been appointed to sweet-talk banks into throwing good money after bad on a loser that has already seen NT$70 billion vanish since the service began in early 2007.

The convenient culprit for the mess is the obvious one, a villain named "the economy". By common agreement, it is the economy's fault that barely 80,000 people a day use the service, although initial estimates projected 180,000 daily, rising to 400,000 daily in 30 years. It has also been decided to preserve the fiction that this is purely a private project - a build, operate and transfer scheme - and therefore the government is not to blame, although it will now step in to twist the arms of the lenders.

There are several lessons for Hong Kong here. The first is that multi-year passenger forecasts for new transport projects are highly uncertain and tend to be influenced by special interests. For instance, a frequent fast hop by air is already available between Taipei and Kaohsiung and there is an existing four-hour rail service for people less pressed for time.

Rail planners dazzled by the glitter of a high-speed line pooh-poohed all this, however. The former chairwoman of the railway company even said, in a recent magazine interview, that overly optimistic estimates were adopted to make the project more appealing to investors.

Likewise, there are already a multiplicity of existing transport services between Hong Kong and Guangzhou, leave alone Shenzhen, and no detailed studies were done on the need for a new 48-minute rail service to an outlying Guangzhou suburb, with a cost that has now climbed to HK$60 billion for the Hong Kong portion alone.

The stated official reason for doing it is to "reinforce Hong Kong's position as the transport hub in southern China and integrate Hong Kong into the country's rapidly growing express rail network".

That's it. That's all. You look in vain for any reasoned studies on how this was determined or what lay behind the guess that this line will carry 100,000 passengers a day in the year 2020.

You would look in vain anyway, as it is the very unusual hub that is located at the rim of the wheel rather than in the centre of it. Hong Kong is actually not particularly well placed to be a transport hub for southern China.

Hong Kong is, nonetheless, already integrated into China's rail network. The rail connection is simply a little slower and a great deal cheaper. If you need speed, go to the airport. That is why we have air travel.

Contrary to what the rail boosters now argue, this new rail proposal is not like the decision 30 years ago to proceed with the Mass Transit Railway. The construction of the MTR's modified initial system was thoroughly studied and soundly based. It made excellent sense both as a transport project and a commercial venture. The new rail link to the border has been only skimpily studied and is based on political convenience alone.

The parallels with Taiwan High Speed Rail are many, and the danger of suffering the same fate is acute. The big difference is only that we have not yet committed ourselves fully and can still step back from this mistake.

We particularly need to rethink it because, if it goes wrong, this is no minor slip-up, a mere gaffe or oversight. We are talking of a project that could easily sink HK$10,000 per person for every member of Hong Kong's population. It will not be banks, shareholders or foreign investors that will carry this if it happens. They will have run and been long gone by the time the rest of us see our fate coming. The burden of it will fall squarely on Hong Kong working families through higher taxes and lower returns on savings.

That's the way it is now happening in Taiwan. Look and shudder.

Jake van der Kamp is a former Post columnist


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ong+Kong&s=News

Contradiction in terms
Few could have foreseen the paradox presented by capitalism with Chinese characteristics

Pranab Bardhan
Oct 05, 2009           
     
  |   

  



After the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, one is prone to reflect on its dramatic recent history, including the historic irony of the development of today's arguably most vigorous capitalism in an avowedly communist country. The contradictions involved here are much more than were dreamed of in Mao Zedong's philosophy when he famously speculated on the nature of contradictions, first in a 1937 essay, where he stated: "The law of contradiction in things, that is, the law of the unity of opposites, is the fundamental law of nature and of society."

While the Communist Party retains the monopoly of power, the market mechanism is the major allocator of resources in the economy. While most people agree that the private sector is now the more dynamic part of the economy and creates most of the jobs, to find out how much of the (non-farm) economy is actually under private ownership is not straightforward: it is not easy to classify Chinese firms by their ownership or to distinguish between private and public, or semi-public, control rights.

This is, of course, part of the legacy of the development of the private sector under the shadow of the party-controlled state. As late as 1988, private firms with more than eight employees were not permitted. Many private firms operated below the radar and used various subterfuges and covert deals with local officials as they adapted to the changing permissible mores. Many of the smaller and regional state-owned enterprises (SOEs) were privatised and often their managers became the new owners. Today, probably more than half of the non-farm output (though not of fixed capital investment) is primarily privately owned or controlled. About one-third of the private entrepreneurs are members of the party; membership helps them get state finance, more protection and legitimacy.

Of course, it is well known that some of the entrepreneurs are in fact friends or relatives of party officials. Many SOEs are also controlled by powerful political families. Thus, there is a new political-managerial class, which over the last two decades has converted their positions of authority into wealth and power.

The vibrancy of entrepreneurial ambitions combined with the arbitrariness of power in an authoritarian state has sometimes given rise to particularly corrupt or predatory forms of capitalism, unencumbered by the restraints of civil society institutions. Perhaps nowhere has the predation been as starkly evident as in land seizures in cities as well as the countryside.

This corrupt or predatory form of capitalism also has some obvious global implications. When foreign companies try to invest in China, or Chinese companies try to acquire holdings abroad, the decision-making process can be vitiated by arbitrary political interference, underhand dealings, kickbacks and influence-peddling.

While the state has relaxed its earlier control over prices and allows markets and profit-making to be the major organising principle of domestic economic life, it is still predominant in the capital goods sectors and in transport and finance. Some of the SOEs are now important players in the global market competition. In general, in recruiting professional managers, broadening their investor base, and shedding their traditional social and political obligations, many SOEs do not conform to the usual stereotypes.

The state still controls the larger and often more profitable companies in the industrial and service sectors. The state's role in regulating the private sector also goes far beyond the usual functions in other countries. Apart from exerting indirect control rights in private firms, during the current global recession, some SOEs - flush with abundant loans from state banks - have even taken over some of the financially strapped small and medium-size private enterprises.

An important question arises in cases where an enterprise is managed on essentially commercial principles, but the state still has control rights over a large share of the assets: is this a capitalist enterprise? Some may describe it as capitalist if the principle of shareholder value maximisation is followed. Others may point out that, as long as substantial control rights remain with the state, the internal dynamic logic of capitalism is missing. Late last year, when China's richest man, Huang Guangyu, was arrested, many thought his biggest crime was that he was getting too powerful for the leaders' comfort (shades of Vladimir Putin's Russia).

Nevertheless, it is probably reasonable to guess that, while the party can undo individual capitalists at short notice, it will be much more difficult for the leadership to unravel a whole network of capitalist relations.

Individual entrepreneurs have a clientelistic relationship with the state, but the state is now sufficiently enmeshed in a profit-oriented system that has been identified with legitimacy enhancing international economic prowess and nationalist glory - a tiger that the political leadership may find difficult to dismount.

At the local level, the central leadership often finds it difficult to rein in officials, as they collude with local business to commit some of the worst capitalist excesses (in land acquisitions, product safety or pollution). By one official account, the party composition itself has drastically changed, most members now are no longer workers or peasants, but professionals, students and businessmen.

Such are the ambiguities and contradictions of Chinese capitalism that Mao never foresaw, nor did the capitalist corporations in the West now dealing with this strange hybrid.

Pranab Bardhan is professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. Reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online

http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ss=China&s=News

Turn down the heat before it's too late


LEADER

Oct 06, 2009           
     
  |   

  



The government now knows where the hottest parts of Hong Kong are. As the climate map its researchers have produced reveals, it is generally the main commercial and industrial parts of the city. The findings are not surprising; anyone who works or lives in the dozen districts identified already knows this. Confirmation therefore has to be not a starting point for further investigation, but a springboard from which to implement rules, regulations and policies that will keep temperatures down.

Authorities have a long record of responding slowly to sensitive matters. The four-year study from which the map has been drawn falls into this category. Much of the problem of what researchers call the "heat island" effect is caused by high-density property development. The government has adopted a generally laissez-faire approach towards property developers; they are, after all, by far the biggest contributor to public revenue.

Allowing developers a more or less free hand has benefited both sides. With rising lifestyle expectations and concerns about the environment and health, though, this is obviously no longer sustainable. Authorities are well aware of the need to make Hong Kong more liveable and have been encouraging developers to lower the density of projects and include more green features. This has to be extended beyond new developments to existing ones.

Hong Kong is, as is often the case, behind the global curve on such efforts. Singapore, Tokyo, Los Angeles and countless other cities long ago produced temperature maps. Policies have, for years, been in place to ensure the use of heat-lowering materials on buildings and road surfaces and the planting of roof- and street-level trees and gardens. Rules govern distances between buildings to ensure airflow and where this is hampered, such as on Tokyo's Kanni Road, demolition crews are called in.

Authorities now have valuable data to strengthen Hong Kong's planning rules. They know exactly where the temperatures are least comfortable. Every effort has to be made to take the heat off our streets. The government and developers have to change their ways.


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

Unemployment crisis is Obama's blind spot


Bob Herbert
Oct 07, 2009           
     
  |   

  



The big question in the US right now is whether President Barack Obama understands the gravity of the employment crisis facing the country. Does he get it? The signals coming out of the White House have not been encouraging.

The Beltway crowd and the Einsteins of high finance who never saw this economic collapse coming are now telling us with their usual breezy arrogance that the Great Recession is probably over. But their focus is on data - abstractions like the gross domestic product, not the continued suffering of living, breathing human beings struggling with the nightmare of joblessness.

Even Obama, in a New York Times interview, gave short shrift to the idea of an additional economic stimulus package, saying a few weeks ago that the economy had probably turned a corner. "As you know," Obama said, "jobs tend to be a lagging indicator; they come last."

The view of most American families is somewhat less blase. Faced with the relentless monthly costs of housing, transport, food, clothing, education and so forth, they have precious little time to wait for this lagging indicator to come creeping across the finish line.

Americans need jobs now, and if the economy on its own is incapable of putting people back to work - which appears to be the case - then the government needs to step in with aggressive job-creation efforts.

Nearly one in four American families has suffered a job loss over the past year, according to the Economic Policy Institute. Nearly one in 10 Americans is officially out of work: the real-world rate is worse.

Something approaching 10 million new jobs would have to be created just to get back to where we were when the recession began in December 2007. There is nothing currently in the works to jump-start job creation on that scale.

A massive long-term campaign to rebuild the nation's infrastructure - which would put many people to work establishing the industrial platform for a truly 21st-century US economy - has not been considered seriously. Large-scale public-works programmes that would reach the inner cities and hard-pressed suburban and rural areas have been dismissed as the residue of an ancient, unsophisticated era.

We seem to be waiting for some mythical rebound, magically equipped with robust jobs creation, a long-term bull market and paradise regained for consumers.

It ain't happening. The number of people officially unemployed - 15.1 million - is, as The Wall Street Journal noted, greater than the population of 46 of the 50 states.

The administration seems hamstrung by the unemployment crisis. No big ideas have emerged. While devoting vast amounts of energy to health care and Afghanistan, the president has not even conveyed the sense of urgency that the employment crisis warrants.

The staggering levels of joblessness have the potential to cripple not just the well-being of millions of families, but any real prospects for sustained economic recovery and Obama's political prospects, as well. Unemployed voters are unhappy voters.

Bob Herbert is a New York Times columnist


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

Reading revolution a welcome chapter


LEADER

Oct 08, 2009           
     
  |   

  



Americans have for two years been able to download and read books at any time and place using wireless electronic readers. That amenity will come to Hong Kong after October 19 when the online retailer Amazon.com starts shipping the international version of its Kindle e-reader. The event is as important for our community as it is for the firm's business expansion plans. Any new means of facilitating reading and learning is good.

Amazon.com says that books can be downloaded in about a minute from an ever-expanding catalogue of hundreds of thousands. A voice feature will give the visually impaired access to titles of some publishers. The price for each will be US$9.99 and there will be no downloading charge. Obtaining the printed word has never been less expensive or easier; it will presumably become increasingly so as competitors like Sony and Apple launch rivals.

There are those among us who would never think of trading the feel and smell of hard-copy books, magazines and newspapers for ones that can only be read on a hand-held screen. The march of technology, environmental concerns and convenience dictate that ways have to change. But wireless e-readers open vistas for younger generations, who overwhelmingly prefer comics, computer games, tinkering with mobile phones and watching television to curling up with a book. Making the printed word more accessible to our children in a means they are comfortable with will help society.

Reading has a host of benefits that comics, games and television can only partially provide. Through books, readers develop creativity and an ability to comprehend concepts and ideas, increase vocabulary and language fluency, and broaden interests. Spelling and writing standards improve.

The Kindle's availability will provide fresh competition for booksellers, who will need to adapt. It may even lead to lower book prices. Schools may consider electronic textbooks, as is happening in the US. The changes are worrying for Luddites, but for the sake of our city's learning and education they are more than welcome.


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

Bright prospects for renewable energy


Kandeh Yumkella
Oct 09, 2009           
     
  |   

  



A decade ago, renewable energy was viewed as an unwelcome offspring of fossil fuels, but the recent establishment of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) indicates that governments worldwide are taking "renewables" seriously. With mounting concerns about climate change and volatility in oil and other fossil-fuel prices, renewables are finally becoming a viable proposition.

Irena will have its headquarters in the United Arab Emirates, in Masdar City, the world's first carbon-neutral city, which will be constructed in the desert by 2011. The agency will also have two arms in Europe: in Bonn and Vienna.

Close to US$155 billion was invested in 2008 in renewable energy companies and projects worldwide, not including large-scale hydroelectric projects, according to a UN Environment Programme report. On a global scale, the renewable energy sector has created 2.3 million jobs in the past few years.

Big business is spending billions of dollars to explore opportunities that renewables can bring. There are plans to turn the Sahara desert's heat and sunlight into Europe's major power source, supplying energy to half a billion people. Renewable energy costs will drop in step with technological innovation and mass production.

As a new global platform for renewables, Irena will provide policy advice and assist in capacity building and technology transfer. This will contribute to giving the poorest nations affordable access to clean energy, a key step towards lifting millions out of poverty. Yet sceptics might ask: must we add another set of letters to the alphabet soup of global bureaucracy? My answer is "yes". This new agency already has immense potential.

First, Irena will hit the ground running in developing policy and spreading technology, partly because the countries instrumental in its birth - Denmark, Germany and Spain - have impeccable "green" policy credentials.

Second, the new agency's wide membership - 136 states - is keen to benefit from the opportunities that renewable energy will create for growth, jobs and helping meet UN Millennium Development Goals.

Third, Irena will be based in a developing country, a vote of confidence in the quality, expertise and dynamism that exists in the developing world. A headquarters in Abu Dhabi sends an unequivocal message that promoting renewable energy is not "anti-oil". At the same time, we must face the facts: fossil fuels will not last forever. So let's plan for the inevitable, and develop the relevant policies, technologies and institutions as soon as possible.

Irena may not be a component of the UN system, but it should be regarded as part of the family from the outset. We have learned from both the climate change debate and the economic crisis that only by working together can we achieve genuine change.

Irena is solid proof that our world has the will to turn away from the carbon-clogged past and to fuel a clean, prosperous future for all.

Kandeh K. Yumkella is director general of the UN Industrial Development Organisation. Copyright: Project Syndicate


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

Quick action required in lawmaker's case


LEADER

Oct 12, 2009           
     
  |   

  



A lawmaker sacks a female political assistant. She complains to party leaders. A media leak alleges she was dismissed after rejecting his advances. He denies it. It sounds like a case for consideration by the Equal Opportunities Commission under laws against sexual harassment. Instead, it has become a political scandal involving parties and politicians from all sides that has dragged on for a week. Some lawmakers have, predictably, sought to make political capital out of it. This is all part of the cut and thrust of politics. But it should serve the public interest, rather than being politics for its own sake.

A decision on Friday night by the Legislative Council's House Committee to launch a formal investigation into the complaint by Kimmie Wong against Democrat lawmaker Kam Nai-wai should be approached in that spirit. We are entitled to expect high standards of our lawmakers. If the committee finds Kam's conduct to have been sufficiently serious to disqualify him from being a lawmaker, he can be censured for misbehaviour under Article 79 of the Basic Law. That may satisfy public concerns, but only if the investigation is fair and free from political bias.

Indeed, the public could be forgiven for wondering whether our politicians have nothing better to think about. That is not to make light of the complaint or allegations of sexual harassment. The controversy has, no doubt, caused trauma and distress to the people involved and their families. Wong is entitled to seek an investigation of her complaint. But Legco is not best placed to decide on what is essentially a dispute between employer and employee.

Lawmakers surely have more important matters to deal with. It is not yet clear whether we have emerged from the economic downturn. Meanwhile, Hong Kong is approaching a pivotal moment in its political development. The government is soon to unveil a consultation on arrangements for the election of the chief executive in 2012, ahead of a road map towards universal suffrage for the next election in 2017. Regrettably, the Kam controversy has been allowed to develop into an unedifying distraction.

Democrats were divided over whether Kam should resign for the sake of the camp's credibility in the debate over political development, and opponents sought to exploit their dilemma by accusing them of stalling. Kam initially denied making advances to Wong, before admitting he had told his former assistant that he had feelings for her. He did not consider this amounted to making advances. He said he sacked her in a temper months later over another matter. Wong has remained silent about the circumstances and is taking legal advice on whether to participate in the inquiry. It is easy to sympathise with her claim that her ordeal has been aggravated by the escalation of the controversy.

The Democratic Party leadership considers Kam's actions not to be serious enough to warrant his resignation. Such a step certainly should not be forced upon him to serve purely political motives. Kam has served the Democratic Party loyally as a founding member, district councillor and, since last year, as a member of the Legislative Council. By resigning now, he could save his party further embarrassment and, more importantly, spare Wong the ordeal of having to give evidence in an inquiry. But that would also amount to an admission of wrongdoing. He is entitled to a fair hearing.

Whatever the outcome, the matter should be resolved as swiftly as possible, so the truth is established, justice done and our lawmakers able to fully focus on the many challenges facing our city.


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

Global warning
The choices on emissions are stark: reduce them and prosper, or ignore them and face catastrophe

Nicholas Stern
Oct 13, 2009           
     
  |   

  



The United Nations climate change conference, to be held in Copenhagen in December, should provide the climax to two years of international negotiations over a new global treaty aimed at addressing the causes and consequences of greenhouse-gas emissions.

A global deal on climate change is urgently needed. Concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached 435 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide-equivalent, compared with about 280ppm before industrialisation in the 19th century.

If we continue with business-as-usual emissions from activities such as burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests, concentrations could reach 750ppm by the end of the century. Should that happen, the probable rise in global average temperature, relative to pre-industrial times, will be 5 degrees Celsius or more.

It has been more than 30 million years since the earth's temperature was that high. The human species, which has been around for no more than 200,000 years, would have to deal with a more hostile physical environment than it has ever experienced.

Developing countries recognise and are angered by the inequity of the current situation. Current greenhouse-gas levels are largely due to industrialisation in the developed world since the 19th century. Yet developing countries are the most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change, which threaten the economic growth that is necessary to overcome poverty. At the same time, emissions cannot be reduced at the extent required without the central contribution of the developing world.

Climate change and poverty, the two defining challenges of this century, must be tackled together. If we fail on one, we will fail on the other. The task facing the world is to meet the environment's "carbon constraints" while creating the growth necessary to raise living standards for the poor.

To avoid the severe risks that would result from a rise in global average temperature of more than 2 degrees, we must get atmospheric concentrations below 450ppm. This will require a cut in annual global emissions from about 50 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent today to below 35 gigatonnes in 2030, and less than 20 gigatonnes by 2050.

Today, per capita annual emissions in the European Union are 12 tonnes, and 23.6 tonnes in the US, compared to 6 tonnes for China and 1.7 tonnes for India. As the projections for 2050 suggest that the world's population will be about 9 billion, annual per capita emissions must be reduced to about 2 tonnes, on average, if the global annual total is to be less than 20 gigatonnes.

Most developed countries are targeting reductions in annual emissions of at least 80 per cent - relative to levels in 1990 - by 2050. If they are to convince developing countries that the 2050 goal is credible, they must be both ambitious and realistic about the domestic political challenges they face in adopting and implementing demanding targets for 2020, 2030 and 2040.

Developing countries need substantial help and support from rich nations to implement their plans for low-carbon economic growth, and to adapt to the effects of climate change that are now inevitable over the next few decades. Developed countries should also provide strong support for measures to halt deforestation in developing countries, and for reducing emissions substantially, quickly and at reasonable cost.

Based on recent estimates of the developing world's extra requests as a result of climate change, rich countries should be providing annual financial support - in addition to existing foreign-aid commitments - of about US$100 billion for adaptation and US$100 billion for mitigation by the early 2020s. Some of the latter can come through the carbon market. Rich countries must also demonstrate that low-carbon growth is possible by investing in new technologies, which should be shared with developing countries to boost their mitigation efforts.

We are already seeing extraordinary innovation by the private sector, which will drive the transition towards a low-carbon global economy. Investments in energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies could also pull the global economy out of its economic slowdown over the next couple of years.

More importantly, in driving the transition to low-carbon growth, these technologies could create the most dynamic and innovative period in economic history, surpassing that of the introduction of railways, electricity grids or the internet.

There is no real alternative. High-carbon growth is doomed, crippled by high prices for fossil fuels and killed off by the hostile physical environment that climate change will create. Low-carbon growth will be more energy-secure, cleaner, quieter, safer and more bio-diverse.

We should learn from the financial crisis that, if risks are ignored, the eventual consequences are inevitably worse. If we do not start to combat the flow of greenhouse-gas emissions now, the stock in the atmosphere will continue to grow, making future action more difficult and costly. Other public expenditure can be postponed, but delaying climate-change measures is a high-risk, high-cost option.

Climate change poses a profound threat to our economic future, while low-carbon growth promises decades of increased prosperity (SEHK: 0803, announcements, news) . The choice in Copenhagen will be stark, and the stakes could not be higher. We know what we must do, and we can do it.

Nicholas Stern is chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. He was formerly head of the British Government Economic Service and chief economist at the World Bank. Copyright: Project Syndicate


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... 26+World&s=News

Brain power
The time is ripe for closer co-operation with the mainland on education, science and technology

Tony Chan
Oct 14, 2009           
     
  |   

  



The government, through its Task Force on Economic Challenges, is harbouring visions of glory for our future. As the new president of Hong Kong's purpose-built university of science and technology, I am happy to see that technology and innovation will be promoted as one of the six new pillars of our economy to lay the foundations for a sound economic diversification.

Professor Charles Kao Kuen's Nobel Prize for physics is a timely reaffirmation in Hong Kong's ability to pursue science and technology at the highest level.

Nations the world over are acutely aware of the pivotal role of science, technology and innovation in driving socio-economic progress. In a sweeping statement, China's National Science and Technology Development Plan aims at nothing less than the building of an "innovation nation", as it faces the challenges of the future. It plans to increase its research and development spending from 2 per cent of gross domestic product by 2010 to 2.5 per cent by 2020.

Across the Pacific, the US government has reaffirmed its faith in the primacy of new knowledge in fuelling vital economic growth and development through scientific research.

Through its commitment to science, technology, engineering and mathematics, it is putting innovation front and centre to create a nation of engaged and creative citizens.

Financial crisis or not, its National Science Foundation, where I previously worked, was given a 50 per cent one-time budgetary increase in economically dismal 2009 as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the so-called "stimulus package". The key Department of Energy and the National Institutes of Health received similar budgetary injections.

Thus, both the Chinese and US governments have shown that they are going beyond paying lip service to support for science and technology. They have bulked up the financial muscle of their research and education institutions to keep their respective nations at the forefront of innovation.

Here in Hong Kong, the situation is no less challenging and urgent. If we are to successfully transform our society into a centre of innovation, then the cultivation of science literacy among our citizens is of paramount importance. So is investment in the infrastructure of science and technology. This is an area that cannot and should not be left solely to the initiative of private industry.

The success of Taiwan, Korea and Singapore has demonstrated the decisive leadership role played by government in their economic transformation. To this end, I suggest that the government create a highly visible agency to promote science, technology, innovation and education, across traditional departmental boundaries, and staff it with visionary and expert leaders.

The task force is on the right track in recommending that Hong Kong and Shenzhen collaborate in science and technology, taking advantage of the existing Shenzhen-Hong Kong Innovation Circle. This mainland collaboration can be taken one step further, by extending it to include the entire Pearl River Delta region and beyond.

Hong Kong has the proven capability to lead major science and technology projects in collaboration with top institutions on the mainland. Already, there is a strong interest across the border at the grass-roots level, such as between individual universities and faculty members.

What we need is top-level policy validation and agreement at the government level to encourage closer partnerships, much in the spirit of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (Cepa), but extended to education, science and technology. This would foster a robust increase in the flow of funds and personnel across the border.

I believe this will release a torrent of creative energy and entrepreneurship. Our national leaders have already called for collaboration between the mainland, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan in science and technology.

It is not just a patriotic duty but an act of enlightened self-interest for Hong Kong to seize the initiative to make these mechanisms living organisms of innovative collaboration.

Tony F Chan is president of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ong+Kong&s=News

Is US democracy having a nervous breakdown?


Alex Lo
Oct 15, 2009           
     
  |   

  



For once, I find myself agreeing with John Bolton, the hard-right former US ambassador to the United Nations. He was on TV expressing disgust at the Nobel committee for awarding the peace prize to US President Barack Obama.

"President Carter in 2002, Al Gore in 2007, and President Obama in 2009," he said. "The Nobel committee is preaching at Americans, but they won't be deceived."

Bolton is right that the committee is trying to make a statement - not only that, but to influence American policy. The peace prize is deeply politicised, just like the literature prize. And then there is the one for the dismal science, which includes recipients whose theories directly contributed to the financial crisis. It appears some Nobel Prizes, notably those in the hard sciences, are far more worthy than others.

But Bolton also spoke of Americans and how "they won't be deceived". Really, does anyone still think there is a single America speaking in one voice any more? The US is so polarised and its body politic so divided and poisoned that its first black president - winning office on a platform of civility, unity and moderation - has provoked the exact opposite among large swathes of the US electorate. How ironic that this president, so popular and admired around the world, has proved to be more divisive at home than his much criticised predecessor George W. Bush. A polity blinded by rage - whether from the left or right - is just a step away from political violence.

But this is how democracy works, you might say. Actually, this is how democracy stops working.

"We in democracies have to suffer the indignity of public debate and pleading, the whims of markets and elections and the free media," an erudite critic of my columns wrote recently. "China goes its own way."

True, but the blind rage that now animates much of what passes for political discourse in the US may have crossed the line from vibrant democracy to a dysfunctional one.

"Something very dangerous is happening," Thomas Friedman wrote in The New York Times recently. "Criticism of the far right has begun tipping over into delegitimation and creating the same kind of climate [in the US] that existed in Israel on the eve of the Rabin assassination."

Friedman observes that Bush's father may have been the last "legitimate" president in the sense that Americans who didn't vote for him still accepted him as their president.

When opponents across the ideological divide question each other's right to debate, to formulate policy and to rule, they are questioning each other's legitimacy. Many Americans think Obama is a socialist, a closet Muslim and a non-native-born American who should be disqualified from being president. They want to disown their president.

"What makes authority legitimate?" asked Rousseau, who considered it the key question of politics.

If the primary virtue of western-style democracy is that it has resolved Rousseau's question about political legitimacy, US democracy looks like it's starting to crack. By contrast, what is most disturbing - to Western democracies - about the Chinese Communist Party is not the military hardware or economic prowess, but the possibility that it has figured out a way to make autocratic rule legitimate among many Chinese.

Americans, whether ordinary citizens or policymakers, cannot assume their intense divisions can have no consequences in the way other people and countries perceive and interact with the US. The lack of political unity or domestic tranquility, wrote Alexander Hamilton, invites foreign interference.

Americans can count themselves lucky that they are still so powerful and rich that foreigners try to interfere in their affairs by handing a Nobel Prize to their president. But keep up the divisions and domestic antagonisms. They are starting to look like symptoms of decline and fall. Before you know it, outside interference may take on a far less benign form.

Alex Lo is a senior writer at the Post


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

Modest to a fault
Devoid of inspiration, Donald Tsang's policy address showed he is still unwilling to tackle the big issues

Stephen Vines
Oct 16, 2009           
     
  |   

  



Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen had a thankless task when he rose to deliver his policy address on Wednesday; unfortunately, he chose to make the worst of it. It is not his fault that he is not a natural orator; it is not his fault that he owes his job to the grey men in Beijing who have no idea how a pluralistic society like Hong Kong works; and it is only partly his fault that he stands alone in the legislature constitutionally deprived of a political party to back him.

Yet, why does he have to underwhelm so thoroughly on these occasions? Can it be that the lifelong bureaucrat simply does not understand that the task of setting out the government's policy programme requires a degree of inspirational encouragement to the people and that a stolid determination to ignore reality is all very well in internal government committees but goes down very badly out on the streets?

Anyone coming from another planet to listen to Tsang's speech would be under the impression that the economic difficulties Hong Kong faced were somehow a force of nature, indeed the product of a tsunami, as he put it many times.

But they would have been heartened to learn that everything is absolutely fine now and will be even finer soon, once applications have been delivered to Beijing begging for more visitors, asking for more permits to conduct financial services for the mainland, more permits to do business across the border and even permission to import more schoolchildren from the mainland.

There may, however, have been some confusion over assertions that Tsang's administration adhered to the mantra of "big market, small government" while, at the same time, there were many references to how this small government had ambitious plans for shifting the emphasis of Hong Kong's economic development by developing six key industries.

All very confusing, I'm afraid to say. But then again the speech, carefully picked over many, many times in Lower Albert Road, had no real central theme and contained nothing unexpected. This left Tsang as the quintessential "modest man with much to be modest about" as Winston Churchill, Britain's wartime prime minister, cuttingly said of his main rival Clement Atlee.

Lamentably, we are also reminded that prevarication and a reluctance to tackle the big issues has been developed into a curious art by the chief executive.

Earlier in the year, when he didn't want to deal with constitutional reform, he bleated about why it was not possible to cope with this big subject while the so-called financial tsunami was under way.

He is still highly reluctant to mention the dreaded word "democracy" but managed to use a similar excuse to dodge dealing with reform of charging for public health services. This, he said, has to be put on hold because of the outbreak of swine flu. It is quite a clever trick to take two vaguely connected circumstances and bunch them together as an excuse for inaction.

The crux of the problem is not merely that the Tsang administration follows a policy of "no issue too big to dodge", but that it is impossible to serve so many masters at once. The big master is, of course, sitting in Beijing. Then there are the powerful tycoons who can tell tales in Beijing if they feel that the chief executive is not adequately looking after their interests. There are also his tenuous political allies who, as Lenin famously said, offer the same support as that given by the rope that holds the hanging man.

Somewhere down the bottom of the list are the pesky members of the legislature who do not support him but can be a nuisance.

Finally, there are the great unwashed, better known as the people, not trusted to elect their own government and consulted, so it seems, only by a series of mysterious secret opinion polls whose results are selectively released when Tsang wants to claim that "most people" are backing him on this or that.

Somewhere in all this, the government is supposed to formulate coherent policy. Unsurprisingly, this does not happen and this policy address only served to underline that reality.

Stephen Vines is a Hong Kong-based journalist and entrepreneur


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ong+Kong&s=News

Burying the pain
How a nation deals with its past has a vital bearing on both its present and future

Dominique Moisi
Oct 19, 2009           
     
  |   

  



A nation's relationship with its past is crucial to its present and its future, to its ability to "move on" with its life, or to learn from its past errors, not to repeat them. There is the past that "isn't dead and buried. In fact, it is not even past," in William Faulkner's famous phrase. Such a past obsessively blocks any possible evolution towards a necessary reconciliation with oneself and a former or current foe.

Such a past is painfully visible today, for example, in the Balkans, a world largely paralysed by a painful fixation on the conflicts that tore the region apart in the 1990s. An absolute inability to consider the point of view of the other and to go beyond a sense of collective martyrdom still lingers, unequally to be fair, over the entire region.

What the Balkans needs nowadays are not historians or political scientists, but psychoanalysts who can help them transcend their past for the sake of the present and the future. It is to be hoped that the promised entrance into the European Union will constitute the best "psychoanalytical cure".

In contrast to this paranoid version of the past is a past that is buried under silence and propaganda; a past that is simply not dealt with and remains like a secret wound that can become reopened at any moment. Of course, non-treatment of the past is not the exclusive privilege of non-democratic regimes.

More than 30 years after the disappearance of the long dictatorship of Francisco Franco, Spain finds itself confronted by the shadows of a past it has deliberately chosen not to confront. That supposedly buried past was always there, poised to erupt with a vengeance once the economic miracle slowed or stopped.

China, which has just been celebrating with a martial pomp the 60th anniversary of Mao Zedong's founding of the People's Republic constitutes one of the most interesting cases of a nation evincing "shortsightedness" towards its past. China has a lot to show in its recent history. Just consider the massive access to education of its huge rural population in contrast with its "democratic rival" India. So China's pride nowadays is legitimate.

In 60 years, a once weak and divided country, torn apart by internal and external wars, is on the verge of becoming the second most powerful economy in the world. China's insolent prosperity (SEHK: 0803, announcements, news) (even if it is far from being distributed equally), and its relative political stability (even if the regime's opening remains strictly limited), are undeniable and deserving of respect.

But the success of a country that has so mobilised its energies as to transform past humiliations into massive national pride is not accompanied - and this is an understatement - by a responsible opening into its past.

From 1957 to 1976, from the beginning of Mao's Great Leap Forward that led to a mass famine and the deaths of tens of millions of people, to the end of the Cultural Revolution that left Chinese society divided and traumatised due to its wanton cruelty and the destruction of cultural goods, China endured two hideous decades. China must confront them if it wants to progress domestically and become a respected and respectable actor of the international system.

But how can China become capable of implementing the "rule of law" it so badly needs, let us not even speak of democracy, if it continues to systematically lie to its people about the recent past? To refuse to deal with a painful past is to risk reproducing it.

Such a choice can encourage the most dangerous nationalist tendencies within a society that does not know, especially young people, what hides behind the silence and official lies.

The Chinese students I taught at Harvard University last year ignored almost completely their recent history. They reacted with a somewhat defiant nationalism to critical observations. They would "check the accuracy" of historical remarks that did not fit with the history they had been taught at school. How could I be so critical of Mao? It only demonstrated my Western bias against a rising Asian giant.

Between the two extreme of the Balkans and China, the relationship between "memory" and "history" knows so many shades of grey.

It took France nearly 50 years to openly confront its Vichy past and to recognise that the French state had been guilty of collaboration with the Nazis. The country's colonial past remains a painful issue that is still far from being confronted in a dispassionate, objective manner. It is as if truth and justice are seen as potential obstacles to peace, stability and progress.

But there is a major difference between the search for historical truth, which is an absolute must for a society at large, and the search for the settling of scores and the punishment of those found and declared guilty. One must know the past, not to risk repeating it, but also to transcend it.

But between a history that paralyses a nation's ability to "move on" collectively and an absolute unwillingness to face the past, which can lead to criticism of the present, there is ample room for manoeuvre. Healthy nations use that room to bury the pain of the past, if not the past itself.

Dominique Moisi is visiting professor of government at Harvard and author, most recently, of The Geopolitics of Emotion. Copyright: Project Syndicate



http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... 26+World&s=News

Remember the banking recovery? Think again


Paul Krugman
Oct 20, 2009           
     
  |   

  



It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. OK, maybe not literally the worst, but definitely bad. And the contrast between the immense good fortune of a few and the continuing suffering of all too many boded ill for the future.

I'm talking, of course, about the state of the banks. The lucky few garnered most of the headlines, as many reacted with fury to the spectacle of Goldman Sachs making record profits and paying huge bonuses even as the rest of America, the victim of a slump made on Wall Street, continues to bleed jobs.

But it's not a simple case of flourishing banks versus ailing workers: banks that are actually in the business of lending, as opposed to trading, are still in trouble. Most notably, Citigroup and Bank of America, which silenced talk of nationalisation earlier this year by claiming that they had returned to profitability, are now back to reporting losses.

Ask the people at Goldman, and they'll tell you that it's nobody's business but their own how much they earn. But as one critic recently put it: "There is no financial institution that exists today that is not the direct or indirect beneficiary of trillions of dollars of taxpayer support for the financial system."

So who was this thundering bank critic? None other than Lawrence Summers, the Obama administration's chief economist - and one of the architects of its bank policy, which up until now has been to go easy on financial institutions and hope that they mend themselves.

Why the change in tone? Administration officials are furious at the way the financial industry, just months after receiving a gigantic taxpayer bailout, is lobbying fiercely against serious reform. But you have to wonder what they expected to happen. They followed a softly, softly policy, providing aid with few strings, when all of Wall Street was on the ropes; this left them with very little leverage over firms like Goldman that are now, once again, making a lot of money.

But there's an even bigger problem: While the wheeler-dealer side of the financial industry - trading operations - is highly profitable again, the part of banking that really matters - lending, which fuels investment and job creation - is not. Key banks remain financially weak, which is hurting the economy as a whole.

Earlier this year there was a big debate about how to get the banks lending again. Some analysts argued that at least some major banks needed a large injection of capital from taxpayers, and that the only way to do this was to temporarily nationalise the most troubled banks. But, the debate faded out after Citigroup and Bank of America, the banking system's weakest links, announced surprise profits. All was well, we were told, now that the banks were profitable again.

But a funny thing happened on the way back to a sound banking system: Last week both banks announced losses in the third quarter. What happened?

Part of the answer is that those earlier profits were in part a figment of accountants' imaginations. More broadly, however, we're looking at payback from the real economy. In the first phase of the crisis, Main Street was punished for Wall Street's misdeeds; now broad economic distress, especially persistent high unemployment, is leading to big losses on mortgage loans and credit cards.

And here's the thing: The continuing weakness of many banks is helping to perpetuate that economic distress. Banks remain reluctant to lend, and tight credit, especially for small businesses, stands in the way of the strong recovery we need.

The main thing for the time being is probably to do as much as possible to support job growth. With luck, this will produce a virtuous circle in which an improving economy strengthens the banks, which then become more willing to lend.

Beyond that, we desperately need to pass effective financial reform. For if we don't, bankers will soon be taking even bigger risks than they did in the run-up to this crisis.

Paul Krugman is a New York Times columnist


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

The big burnout
Stimulus packages have fed speculation, not investment, creating dangerous new asset bubbles

Andy Xie
Oct 21, 2009           
     
  |   

  



Central banks around the world have released massive amounts of money in response to the current financial crisis. How to exit from the current super-loose monetary environment has become a popular discussion. The central bankers are talking down the prospect of raising interest rates, arguing that the weak economy keeps inflation in check. But the proposition that a weak economy means low inflation is false. The stagflation of the 1970s proves it. This round of monetary growth has mainly fed speculation, not credit demand for consumption or investment. Speculation has reached a dangerous point with the oil price threatening to reach triple digits again. Its implications for inflation may spook the central banks to raise interest rates quickly and trigger another crash.

The excess money supply has created a new liquidity bubble. The resulting asset inflation (stocks and bonds in developed markets and everything in emerging markets) has stabilised the global economy. The current equilibrium is one on a pinhead. The hope for strong economic recovery led by emerging economies raises investor optimism - and asset prices. This eases pressure on corporate balance sheets, spurs property production and boosts consumption through the wealth effect, making the hope self-fulfilling in the short term.

A rising oil price threatens to derail this recovery. It can trigger a surge in inflation expectation and a major crash of bond markets. The resulting high bond yields may force the central banks to raise interest rates to cool inflation fears. Another major downturn in asset prices would reignite fears about the balance sheets of global financial institutions, leading to new chaos.

The last two times the oil price surged above US$100, it wreaked havoc on the financial markets and global economy. The runaway oil prices of 2006 were the final straw that tipped the US property market. The oil price fell sharply amid the subprime crisis as the market feared a demand collapse. Then, the Fed came to the rescue and began cutting interest rates aggressively in the summer of 2007 in the name of combating the recessionary impact of the subprime crisis. The oil price rose sharply afterwards on the optimism that the Fed would rescue the economy, and with it, oil demand. It worked to offset the Fed's stimulus, accelerated the economic decline, and pulled the rug out from under the derivatives bubble. The ensuing demand fear again caused the oil price to collapse.

The central banks are using cheap money to inflate asset prices to stabilise the economy. But it also provides the ammunition for oil speculation. An oil bubble is different from others in two ways: it immediately redistributes income, and generates inflation; that is, it weakens consumption and tightens financial conditions on rising expectations for interest rate increases. Oil speculation is the party crasher, even though it destroys itself by destroying others.

Oil is perfect material for a bubble. Supply cannot respond quickly to price surges - it takes a long time to expand production. Demand cannot drop quickly due to the "stickiness" of consumers' lifestyles and the modes of production.

Oil speculators are no longer restricted to secretive hedge funds. Average Joes can buy exchange traded funds (ETFs) to own oil or anything else. And, why not? The central banks have made clear their intentions to keep money supplies as high as possible, debasing the value of paper money to help debtors.

It seems that no good deed goes unpunished in this world. If you speculate big, governments will bail out when your bets go wrong and cut interest rates and guarantee your debts for you to make even bigger bets. Savers who live within their means and leave some for rainy days see their dreams shattered. Maybe everyone should be a hedge fund. The ETFs give you this opportunity. As the masses are given incentives to avoid paper money by buying hard assets like oil, a three-digit oil price appears more likely.

A word of caution for would-be speculators: run for your life as soon as the bond market starts to plunge. The oil bubble is easy to come and quick to go, because, as it kills other bubbles, the oxygen for its existence is also consumed.

The case for a double dip in 2010 is already strong. Inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus are behind the current economic recovery. The odds are quite low that western consumption will pick up when the recovery runs out of steam next year. High unemployment will keep incomes too weak to support spending.

Many analysts argue that, as long as unemployment rates are high, more and more stimuli should be applied. As I have argued before, the demand and supply mismatch rather than demand weakness per se is the main reason for high unemployment. Further stimuli will only trigger inflation and financial instability.

The current generation of central bankers has ignored asset inflation and believed in maximising employment through monetary stimulus. They have ignored the fact that the economy needs to purge deadwood from time to time.

The stagflation in the 1970s discredited Keynesians who ignored the inflation consequences of sustained monetary expansion. This crisis will discredit those who ignore asset bubbles.

Andy Xie is an independent economist


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... 26+World&s=News

Coal conundrum
The US Senate is shaping up as the final hurdle to a new global treaty on climate change

Jeffrey Sachs
Oct 22, 2009           
     
      

  



The United Nations Climate Change Treaty, signed in 1992, committed the world to "avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system". Yet, since that time, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to soar.

The United States has proved to be the biggest laggard in the world, refusing to sign the 1997 Kyoto Protocol or to adopt any effective domestic emissions controls. As we head into the global summit in Copenhagen in December to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, the US is once again the focus of concern. Even now, American politics remains strongly divided over climate change - though US President Barack Obama has new opportunities to break the logjam.

A year after the 1992 treaty, president Bill Clinton tried to pass an energy tax that would have helped the US to begin reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. The proposal not only failed, but also triggered a political backlash. When the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997, Clinton did not even send it to the US Senate for ratification, knowing that it would be rejected. President George W. Bush repudiated the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 and did essentially nothing on climate change during his presidency.

There are several reasons for US inaction - including ideology and scientific ignorance - but a lot comes down to one word: coal. No fewer than 25 states produce the commodity, which not only generates income, jobs and tax revenue, but also provides a disproportionately large share of their energy.

Per capita carbon emissions in US coal states tend to be much higher than the national average. Since addressing climate change is first and foremost directed at reduced emissions from coal - the most carbon-intensive of all fuels - the coal states are fearful about the economic implications of any controls (though the oil and motor industries are not far behind).

The US political system poses special problems as well. To ratify a treaty requires the support of 67 of the Senate's 100 members, a nearly impossible hurdle. The Republican Party, with its 40 Senate seats, is simply filled with too many ideologues - and, indeed, too many senators intent on derailing any Obama initiative - to offer enough votes to reach the 67-vote threshold. The Democratic Party includes senators from coal and oil states who are unlikely to support decisive action.

The idea this time around is to avoid the need for 67 votes by focusing on domestic legislation rather than a treaty. Domestic legislation (as opposed to international treaties) requires a simple majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Getting 50 votes for a climate-change bill (with a tie vote broken by the vice president) is almost certain.

But opponents of legislation can threaten to filibuster (speak for an indefinite period and thereby paralyse Senate business), which can be ended only if 60 senators support bringing the legislation to a vote. Otherwise, proposed legislation can be killed, even if it has the support of a simple majority. That will certainly be true of domestic climate-change legislation. Securing 60 votes is a steep hill to climb.

Political analysts know that the votes will depend on individual senators' ideologies, states' voting patterns, and states' dependence on coal relative to other energy sources. Based on these factors, one analysis counts 50 likely Democratic "yes" votes and 34 Republican "no" votes, leaving 16 votes still in play. Ten of the swing votes are Democrats, mainly from coal states; the other six are Republicans who conceivably could vote with the president and the Democratic majority.

Until recently, many believed that China and India would be the real holdouts in the global climate-change negotiations. Yet China has announced a set of major initiatives - in solar, wind, nuclear and carbon-capture technologies - to reduce its economy's greenhouse-gas intensity.

India, long feared to be a spoiler, has said that it is ready to adopt a significant national action plan to move towards a trajectory of sustainable energy. These actions put the US under growing pressure to act. With developing countries displaying their readiness to reach a global deal, could the US Senate really prove to be the world's last great holdout?

Obama has tools at his command to bring the US into the global mainstream on climate change. First, he is negotiating side deals with holdout senators to cushion the economic impact on coal states and to increase US investments in the research and development, and eventually adoption, of clean-coal technologies.

Second, he can command the Environmental Protection Agency to impose administrative controls on coal plants and car producers even if Congress does not pass new legislation. This route might turn out to be even more important than the legislative route.

The politics of the US Senate should not obscure the larger point: America has acted irresponsibly since signing the climate treaty in 1992. It is the world's most powerful country, the one most responsible for climate change to this point, and has behaved without any sense of duty - to its own citizens, to the world, and to future generations.

Even coal-state senators should be ashamed. Sure, their states need some extra help, but narrow interests should not be permitted to endanger our planet's future. It is time for the US to rejoin the global family.

Jeffrey D. Sachs is professor of economics and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Copyright: Project Syndicate


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... 6+World&s=News#

We don't need this delay on e-textbooks


LEADER

Oct 23, 2009           
     
      

  



The benefits of electronic school textbooks are compelling. They cost half as much as ordinary books, are easy to locate and manage, can be quickly kept up to date, are environmentally responsible and do not risk a child's physical well-being when carried in number in a backpack. Unsurprisingly, school boards and districts the world over are speedily adopting them. But such attributes are not so impressive to a Hong Kong government working group, which after a year of study, has recommended a cautious, go-slow, approach.

Among the group's key suggestions are launching a three-year "promoting e-learning" pilot scheme in up to 30 of our city's 1,060 schools and giving a one-off grant to buy resources. The conclusions are at vast odds with those drawn by the governor of the US state of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger, who in June launched a digital textbook initiative in the name of cutting costs and keeping learning material fresh and relevant. Students are being given free electronic readers, and publishers pushed to quickly make books available. California is by no means at the cutting edge; there are some Hong Kong schools already using the technology.

The working group's chairman, undersecretary for education Kenneth Chen Wei-on, said in unveiling the report yesterday that the interests of stakeholders had been taken into account. This is a euphemism for publishers, who profit lavishly from the textbooks parents have to buy so that their children can get an education. The books are expensive and frequently updated, making their second-hand use impractical. Publishers benefit from the arrangement, as does the government in the taxes it gets as a share from their profits; authorities are in no hurry to dramatically make changes.

Some parents are unsure about e-books. They worry that their children's eyesight will be affected. Others fear that learning electronically may not be effective. Three decades of home and office computers and doctors' advice to take regular, short, breaks from screens make such worries groundless.

The benefits of e-books are obvious. Their widespread use in classrooms one day is inevitable. A go-slow only hampers educational possibilities. Authorities should look beyond the group's narrow suggestions and embrace a forward-thinking policy.


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

PhD fellowship scheme an investment in education


Albert Cheng
Oct 28, 2009           
     
      

  



The major focus of this year's policy address was nurturing economic development and raising Hong Kong's international competitiveness. Therefore, in addition to supporting the four traditional economic pillars, the government has added six new pillar industries to bolster our economic foundation.

The six new areas are education services, medical services, testing and certification services, environmental industries, innovation and technology, and cultural and creative industries. Education is indisputably the most important pillar of our economy. So, besides offering land for the development of private universities and international schools, the government has encouraged schools and institutions to become international to satisfy growing demand. It is hoped that this will maximise our existing education resources and broaden our global vision to develop Hong Kong into a higher-education hub for the region and the world.

With this in mind, the Hong Kong Research Grants Council has recently set up the Hong Kong PhD Fellowship Scheme, which aims to attract the best and brightest students from around the world to pursue their PhD programmes in Hong Kong. Those who are seeking admission as new, full-time PhD students in any of our seven University Grants Committee-funded institutions, irrespective of their country of origin and ethnic background, can apply.

The fellowship will provide students with a monthly stipend of HK$20,000 and a research-related travel allowance of HK$10,000 per year, for three years.

However, some critics argue that the scheme will bring few long-term benefits. Legislator Cheung Man-kwong, who represents the education sector, believes providing fellowships to overseas students with no strings attached will not raise our research capability in strategic areas. He warned that subsidising foreign students to pursue PhD programmes would be nothing more than picking up someone else's education tab. Hong Kong is an international city, so we should promote our city as a free, pluralistic and civilised society. Cheung, a legislator and an educator, should have a more open attitude.

There are no fellowship schemes anywhere else in the world that demand payback in the form of working locally after graduation. Most fellowships are financial awards with no strings attached. Providers don't often seek repayment; they merely ask that students conduct research as part of the deal, with no further post-graduation obligations.

In fact, Hong Kong students have for many years benefited from fellowships granted by institutions in the US, Britain, Australia and other countries. If we insisted on enforcing this irrational rule, we would risk being a laughing stock.

Education is all about creating an inclusive environment that helps nurture young minds. If we are serious about developing Hong Kong into an education hub, we must understand that being a centre of higher education can be a source of global influence and soft power, the essence of which lies in values, which means using culture to attract and co-opt people rather than coercing them.

In recent years, many countries have come to realise that international education is a powerful form of cultural diplomacy that can further national interests and promote trade. China has also begun to cultivate its soft power by expanding its educational and cultural exchange programmes. The reality is that Hong Kong faces a prolonged economic downturn with persistent high unemployment. Demanding that foreign students work here after graduation will only create unnecessary competition and put more strain on the job market.

The golden rule is "do unto others as you would have them do unto you". And the fact that we should always repay a favour with gratitude is not a difficult concept for any educator to grasp.

Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ight&s=Opinion#

Door opens on new economic thinking


George Akerlof and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Oct 29, 2009           
     
      

  



The economic and financial crisis has been a telling moment for the economics profession, for it has put many long-standing ideas to the test. If science is defined by its ability to forecast the future, the failure of much of the economics profession to see the crisis coming should be a cause of great concern.

There is, in fact, a much greater diversity of ideas within economics than is often realised. This year's Nobel laureates are two scholars whose life work explored alternative approaches. Economics has given rise to a wealth of ideas, many of which argue that markets are not necessarily either efficient or stable, or that our economy, and society, is not well described by the standard models of competitive equilibrium used by a majority of economists.

Behavioural economics, for example, emphasises that market participants often act in ways that cannot easily be reconciled with rationality. Similarly, modern information economics shows that, even if markets are competitive, they are almost never efficient when information is imperfect or asymmetric - that is, always.

Just as the crisis has rejuvenated thinking about regulation, so it has given new impetus to alternative strands of thought that provide better insights into how our complex economic system functions - and perhaps also to the search for policies that might avert a recurrence of the recent calamity.

Fortunately, while some economists were pushing the idea of self-regulating, fully efficient markets that always remain at full employment, other economists and social scientists have been exploring a variety of different approaches. These include agent-based models that emphasise the diversity of circumstances; network models, which focus on the complex interrelations among firms; a fresh look at the neglected work of Hyman Minsky on financial crises; and innovation models, which attempt to explain the dynamics of growth.

Much of the most exciting work under way extends the boundary of economics to include psychology, political science and sociology. We have much to learn, too, from economic history.

Ideas matter, as much or perhaps even more than self-interest. Our regulators and elected officials need a wider and more robust portfolio of ideas to draw upon. That is why the recent announcement - by George Soros at the Central European University in Budapest - of the creation of a well-funded Initiative for New Economic Thinking (Inet) to help support these is so exciting.

Inet has been given complete freedom - with respect to both content and strategy. Its only commitment is to "new economic thinking", in the broadest sense.

The marketplace for ideas often works in a way that is less than ideal. In a world of human fallibility and imperfect understanding of the complexity of the economy, Inet holds out the promise of the pursuit of alternative strands of thought - and thereby at least ameliorating this costly market imperfection.

George Akerlof, a Nobel laureate in economics, is professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. Joseph E. Stiglitz is professor at Columbia University and winner of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize. Copyright: Project Syndicate


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ight&s=Opinion#

Donald's black hole
By ignoring his critics, the beleaguered chief executive is just digging himself into more trouble

Stephen Vines
Oct 30, 2009           
     
      

  



Now that Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen finds himself unfavourably compared to his hapless predecessor, Tung Chee-hwa, he appears to be trapped in the vortex which forces flaying politicians further and further down a hole from which they are unlikely to emerge.

This impression was confirmed this week by Tsang's response to accusations of nepotism. He unwittingly fuelled his descent by ignoring every lesson of political behaviour. The great minds in Government House think they know better and launched him on a disastrous course of counter-attack.

As a young and minor political party official employed to buzz around the corridors of Parliament in London, it was drummed into me that politicians in personal trouble have but two alternatives. The first was "don't complain, don't explain"; that seemed to work best when the media got overexcited by very little indeed. Option number two was called upon when explanation was unavoidable. In this instance, speed was of the essence and the response had to be seen as measured, not petulant and certainly not in the form of a suggestion of conspiracies because, once the person in trouble attributes conspiratorial behaviour to others, the public will assume that conspiracy is nurtured in the bosom of the accused.

Tsang and his advisers took the brave decision to ignore these relatively well-established ground rules and initially remained mute, then allowed some of their acolytes to mutter some disparaging words and finally allowed the chief executive to belatedly respond. In so doing, he mixed petulance with accusations of conspiracy against the government. An issue that could have been tackled with relative ease has now lodged in the public mind as another indication that something is seriously wrong with this administration.

The accusations are trivial: Tsang is alleged to have helped out his in-laws who sell light bulbs by introducing a scheme to encourage the purchase of energy-saving bulbs. And it has been suggested that his influence helped his sister-in-law obtain prior settlement of claims for redress arising out of the Lehman minibond scandal. In both instances, the evidence of direct nepotism is tenuous and, in the matter of light bulbs, even more so.

However, the Tsang regime has only itself to blame. Its arrogant behaviour encourages the idea of cronyism and indifference to the needs of ordinary people. A slew of government appointments to official posts and bodies that the chief executive controls suggest that what matters to this administration is who you know, not what you know.

Moreover, while the door remains largely closed to meetings between the government and its critics, it is flung wide open to the rich and well connected. By unfortunate coincidence, on the day that the chief executive chose to rebuff criticism of nepotism, his financial secretary was greeting tycoons from the property sector; such is the state of insularity in this government that this coincidence was unlikely to have been noticed.

All this would be overlooked if there was a feeling that the government was not being run largely for the benefit of those who have most. As house prices soar, the government self righteously announces that it will not assist less-well-off potential homeowners but will listen to property developers anxious to secure cheaper land for development.

As low-income parents battle to find places for children in overcrowded schools with limited resources, the government outlines plans for more schools and universities for the better off - and so it goes on.

Government policy is poorly received and is presented with an arrogance that underlines its inadequacy. When it comes to anything where the heavy shadow of Beijing prevails, such as representative government, paralysis kicks in as officials attempt to second-guess their masters in the North.

This, then, is the atmosphere in which the worst things being said about the chief executive are given the benefit of the doubt. And it is in these circumstances that Tsang digs himself deeper into the hole as he refuses to acknowledge the legitimacy of critics. He instead turns increasingly inward to his circle of cronies and those whom he fears have the ear of the bosses in Beijing and who might badmouth him at any time.

Stephen Vines is a Hong Kong-based journalist and entrepreneur


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ng+Kong&s=News#

US struggles to defeat lo-tech weapons
The No 1 killer of Nato troops in Afghanistan is home-made bombs

AFGHANISTAN
Dan De Luce
Nov 02, 2009           
     
      

  



The world's most powerful military machine is scrambling to fight a simple, lo-tech weapon in Afghanistan that is killing and maiming US and allied soldiers at an alarming rate. The home-made bomb - often a mixture of fertiliser, fuel and metal - is the No 1 killer of Nato troops in Afghanistan, and the US military has launched a massive, costly effort to try to defeat it.

In Iraq, the Americans eventually managed to contain the scourge partly by employing jamming devices and large numbers of unmanned aircraft that could watch for insurgents planting roadside bombs.

But the rudimentary improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan have no radio frequency to jam, while the country's vast, rural landscape makes surveillance a daunting task, US officers say.

"You've got an entirely different challenge in Afghanistan," said Lieutenant General Thomas Metz, head of the Pentagon's Joint Improvised Explosive Device Defeat Organisation. "It looks about like the moon sometimes. It's huge, open spaces. Not much vegetation. It's an unbelievable, tough, rugged terrain."

American soldiers learned to identify suspicious objects on paved streets in Iraq, but Nato forces in Afghanistan had trouble picking out tripwires or booby traps on dirt roads, said Command Master Sergeant Todd Burnett of Metz' organisation, who regularly visits troops on the Afghan front. Soldiers who had only recently arrived in Afghanistan were still trying to figure out how to handle the IED threat there, he said.

"For so long we've been focused on Iraq. We're still learning the environment over there ... we're playing catch-up." And unlike Iraq, where much of the insurgent activity was concentrated in city centres, the bombs were spread over an enormous area, Burnett said.

The threat has steadily mounted in Afghanistan, with more than 1,000 IEDs found or exploded in August - a dramatic increase from just a year ago. But the scale of the threat is still much lower than what US and Iraqi forces faced at the height of violence in Iraq, when the number of IED incidents rose to about 2,500 a month.

Metz, charged with leading the effort against the bombs, said eliminating IEDs was unrealistic, but he talks about the need to get "left of the boom" - by detecting the bomb before it goes off and targeting the bomb-making networks.

His organisation, set up in 2006 to tackle the scourge in Iraq, invested close to US$1 billion over the past year in technology, training and other initiatives to battle the home-made bombs.

Metz said he hoped sensors and software could be refined soon to detect small changes on the ground, revealing where an insurgent may have dug up a road or set down a tripwire.

But he said the "game-changing" technology was still not there.

"We're left with some real tough physics problems," he said, as the sensor had to deliver reliable information quick enough to allow a vehicle speeding down the road to stop before reaching the bomb.

To protect troops, the Pentagon is rushing the production of new armoured vehicles for Afghanistan, as a version designed for Iraq has proved too bulky for the country's treacherous terrain.

Seven of the new M-ATVs (mine-resistant, ambush-protected, all- terrain vehicles) have been delivered and the Pentagon has approved plans to quickly produce more to ship to the war.

Defence Secretary Dr Robert Gates has deployed nearly 3,000 troops trained in explosives disposal, intelligence and route clearance to contain the IED threat.

Commanders are working to shift much of the unmanned-aircraft fleet from Iraq to Afghanistan to spy on insurgents planting bombs, and the US military has bought smaller robots that can help soldiers dismantle explosives in a more rugged setting.

In the meantime, the IEDs are wreaking havoc, killing and badly wounding Western troops and Afghans while piling pressure on the Nato-led mission.

With the carnage from the bombs undermining public support for the war on both sides of the Atlantic, some lawmakers in the US Congress say the military has to move faster.

The Pentagon promised that anti-IED programmes would produce results soon, but the death toll kept rising, Republican congressman Duncan Hunter said at a recent congressional hearing.

"We've been ... told that since I got into office in January, `It's going to be there soon, sir. It's going to be there soon'," Hunter, a marine veteran who served in Iraq, said.

"It isn't there now. And we're losing guys every day. So what are we going to do tomorrow to defeat IEDs so that we don't have any more IED deaths?"

Agence France-Presse



http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... ight&s=Opinion#

It won't float
Revaluing the yuan now could bring disaster to China, given its unbalanced economy and bubble obsession

Andy Xie
Nov 03, 2009           
     
      

  



US President Barack Obama's upcoming visit to China has inspired another round of pressuring Beijing to revalue the yuan. Those in the west have learned to play the Chinese game: shouldn't China give Obama face by revaluing its currency higher? When that ploy doesn't work, they can accuse China of stealing jobs from other poor, developing countries.

The stick and carrot approach will build momentum until Obama finishes his visit. In anticipation, speculators have put up their positions in the non-deliverable forwards market. The gap between the forward and spot price of the yuan has inspired arbitrage: dollars have been converted into yuan in the underground money market. The resulting rise in China's foreign exchange reserves adds to the case for revaluation. Rhetorical pressure becomes market pressure. It looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But hold your horses. China will not and should not revalue the yuan at this point. It would only destabilise its unbalanced economy. In response to a sharp drop in exports, China cut the mortgage interest rate, reversing its policy of cooling the overheated property sector. The ensuing surge in prices and sales erased all the tightening effects - and some. The economy has become highly dependent on the property sector: mortgage loans boost local government revenue that serves as equity capital for further leveraging. Beyond property, most bank loans are to local government borrowing platforms. China's situation is quite similar to Southeast Asia's before the Asian financial crisis. If not managed carefully, the property bubble could burst and bring calamity to the Chinese economy.

Of course, China could further inflate the property bubble to offset the contractionary impact of yuan revaluation, as Japan did after the 1985 Plaza Accord (in which - at the request of the US - France, Germany, Japan and Britain agreed to work together to deliberately weaken the dollar's exchange rate). But that would merely postpone the inevitable. The longer the bubble lasts, the bigger the crisis when it does burst. I am afraid that is exactly what some people want to see: China makes the bubble bigger to support the US economy during its adjustment, and, when the US economy has adjusted and the Federal Reserve's interest rate is above 5 per cent, China collapses.

Many inside China are helping to bring about this scenario. Since 2004, a major change has occurred in the Chinese economy and society. Bubble making has become a national obsession. If the Chinese economy does collapse, we have only ourselves to blame.

None of this would be good for poor developing countries. The simplistic accusation that China is stealing jobs from them by pegging the yuan to the dollar is naive. Poor emerging economies have benefited hugely from the commodity boom on the back of Chinese demand. The biggest emerging market boom in modern times is thanks to China's impact on commodity prices.

If the Chinese economy falters and the commodity boom ends, other developing countries may be able to gain some market share in exports. But its upside will be much smaller than the losses from low commodity prices. And these nations won't be able to afford to build up their manufacturing infrastructure to compete.

At any moment, the currency market determines exchange rates. But the currency market has a track record for causing massive swings in exchange rates. No conceivable changes in economic fundamentals could justify the swings in the currency market today. It is clearly inefficient. I am not arguing that we should replace it with an administrative system. But, as China has a managed exchange rate, it should be extremely careful about the pressure from an inefficient market.

Is the yuan undervalued? The case for it is largely based on the dollar's depreciation. Prima facie, it is undervalued. But, that's the nature of the pegged exchange rate. When the US dollar rises, nobody shouts that the yuan is overvalued.

I agree that, if the yuan were allowed to float today, it would appreciate against the dollar. The driver is the Fed's zero interest rate. It provides zero-cost dollars to the hedge fund community for carry trades. US policymakers keep talking down the dollar. The combination of zero-cost dollar borrowing and official encouragement has emboldened hedge funds to short-sell dollars and take long positions on emerging market currencies, stocks and commodities. This is a bubble. The dollar's fundamentals have improved: the US trade deficit has halved from its peak and will fall more, and the Fed will probably raise interest rates in early 2010, earlier than expected. A major reversal in the dollar's trend within 12 months is quite likely, and could trigger another hedge fund crisis. If China raises the yuan against the dollar now, it won't be able to lower it when the dollar reverses.

Purchasing power parity (PPP) is an important measure for valuing a pegged currency like the yuan. International financial institutions still consider that the yuan exchange rate is at one-third of its PPP value: in short, massively undervalued. I think that's wrong. Prices of Chinese property, department store goods, cars and even flight tickets are among the highest in the world. How can one argue that the yuan is fundamentally undervalued?

There is another, cheaper world in the informal distribution system. Low earners gravitate towards it to survive. Their low wages are the export sector's main advantage. But, as rising commodity prices increase the cost share of the raw materials in manufacturing products, this advantage is diminishing for China. Increasingly, resource-rich nations are benefiting from China's export boom, not Chinese workers.

China's exchange rate should not be considered separately from the rest of the economy. The exchange rate is not a cause of China's imbalances; the political economy is. A massive revaluation could bring economic collapse and force structural reforms. It would be better - for China and the world - to carry out the reforms first, then float the currency.

Andy Xie is an independent economist


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... s=China&s=News#

Consensus the solution to an endless endgame


Thitinan Pongsudhirak
Nov 04, 2009           
     
      

  



The hospitalisation of King Bhumibol Adulyadej has brought Thailand's most daunting question to the fore. The country's wrenching political struggle over the past several years has, at bottom, concerned what will happen after the ailing 81-year-old king's reign, now at 63 years, comes to an end.

Thailand's endgame is being shaped by several key events: the military coup of September 2006, the current military-supported constitution and election in 2007, street protests and seizures of Government House and Bangkok's airports in 2008, the army-brokered coalition government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva that has ruled since January, and the Bangkok riots in April.

At stake is the soul of emerging Thailand, with far-reaching ramifications for developing democracies elsewhere as well as the international community.

Thailand's colour-coded crisis pits largely urban, conservative and royalist "yellow" shirts against the predominantly rural "red" columns of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. For much of Thailand's long economic boom of the past two decades, wealth resided mostly in the Bangkok metropolitan area, a boon to the burgeoning urban middle class, but deeply resented by the rural majority.

The rural population's economic opportunities and upward mobility were limited by a shoddy education system and docile state-run media that fed them soap operas and official messages. For a nobody to become a somebody, all roads led to Bangkok and its prestigious prep schools and universities. Farms became increasingly alienated from the urban elite. Thaksin recognised this urban-rural divide and shrewdly exploited it, upending the elite consensus that had long prevailed.

Thaksin and his cronies handed the establishment an opportunity to strike back by abusing power and profiting personally from it. A billionaire telecommunications tycoon, Thaksin presided over the trebling of his family's assets in the stock market. He also engineered an extrajudicial drug-suppression campaign that claimed 2,275 lives.

Thaksin's sins are voluminous, and became the basis of the rise of his yellow-shirted opponents.

After three years, Thailand's crisis has become a knotty saga. Abhisit's pledges of reform and reconciliation in the wake of April's riots have come to little. What had been a pro- and anti-Thaksin fight has gradually become a pro- and anti-monarchy struggle. The rigidly hierarchical forces of the establishment are insecure and fearful of what will happen after the king dies. Lese-majeste cases alleging insults against the immediate royal family are on the rise. Many thousands of web sites challenging establishment interests and deploring post-coup machinations have been blocked.

A new consensus is imperative if Thailand is to regain its footing. The reds must distance themselves from Thaksin's abuses of power and the yellows will have to accept some of Thaksin's policy legacy, particularly grass-roots opportunities for jobs, education and upward mobility.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak is professor and director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok. Copyright: Project Syndicate

http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... sight&s=Opinion

The new Japan?


ALEX LO

Nov 05, 2009           
     
      

  



Beijing doesn't do failure, and that is what makes the nation's future scarier every time it dodges a bullet. It looks like it's tempting fate. Confidence breeds hubris; it's pride that takes men to awesome heights before the gods send them crashing down to earth.

It is now a cliche that China has had a good crisis, and that it is emerging from the global financial crisis not only relatively unscathed, but has also managed to reap geopolitical dividends that will enable it to throw its already considerable weight even more effectively across Asia and around the world. It has secured assurances of a greater say in international institutions like the International Monetary Fund; the Group of Eight leading economies has become the G20, but some say it's really the G2 - China and the US - that really counts. Barely a global issue can be negotiated, let alone resolved, without China's participation.

China's success has installed pride in a new generation of Chinese, not only on the mainland but also overseas. When I was a high-school student in North America in the 1980s, many Chinese didn't want to speak the language and would sooner forget their culture. Now, everyone wants to learn Putonghua. Commodities investment guru Jim Rogers says he is making sure his young children grow up speaking Chinese.

In The New York Times, Thomas Friedman, arguably the most widely read foreign affairs commentator in the US today, calls the central government "relatively enlightened". Recently, in the same publication, Paul Samuelson, the Nobel Prize-winning economist - a proponent of the efficient-market hypothesis widely blamed for contributing to the current crisis - thinks it's a matter of time before China's economy will overtake that of the US.

"The day will come when China's total real GDP will exceed America's. Boohoo. But that's a realistic expectation," Samuelson wrote. "We begin now a new era in which China will increasingly make obsolete America's 1950-2009 world leadership. Your children and my grandchildren will live in this new and challenging era."

I have heard all this talk before. So have you, if you are my age or older. Substitute China with Japan, and the current timeframe with the mid-1980s, and its deja vu all over again. Back then, some of my North American classmates started taking Japanese classes; better to speak the language of your future bosses, they said.

Then, as now, the US lost its self-confidence, after the Black Monday crash in 1987. It was after the crash that Japan's bubble economy took off. Its stock and property markets went through the roof. Many western economies were mired in negative or slow growth but Japan's recovered with relative ease. An export-led economy led to a massive current account surplus, so large Japanese corporations went on a buying spree for trophy foreign assets, especially those in the US. Remember Rising Sun, both the book and the movie, and the first Die Hard - all using the great Japanese corporate shopping spree as the dramatic background? Today, you see the same mania in the stock and property markets on the mainland, and the same globetrotting shopping craze among some of China's largest state-owned enterprises.

State-directed capitalism, whether in Japan or China, uses government-ordered bank lending as a partial substitute for western-style monetary policy. Then, Japanese banks, as their Chinese counterparts today, enjoyed "fortress" balance sheets. Pressured by western powers, much like China is today, Tokyo let the yen surge, setting the stage for the bubble phase. Will Beijing do the same if and when it lets the yuan off its US dollar peg?

The Chinese communist state has proved to be a brilliant learner of history and a great survivor of dire circumstances. Part of its survival success has been its ability to extract valuable lessons from the decline and fall of the Soviet Union. This was the subject of US academic David Shambaugh's fine book, China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation. Will Beijing be able to do it again - this time to learn from, and avoid, Japan's mistakes?

Alex Lo is a senior writer at the Post. alex.lo@scmp.com


http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/ ... lumns&s=Opinion