可能看法和你有 d 不同...
油價上升令產油國美元收入大增,導致美元泛濫 造成美元匯價下跌的兩大原因之一(另一原因係美元利息低)。
我覺得只是相對...日元利息低 ....但因可套戥...亦有轉強之時...(because low interest rate for least yen ....it is good to do the 套戥, demand increase then ...the 匯價 increase....)
simple demand and supply theory
美元泛濫是原因之一 ...同意 ....因出超厲害...租賃 美債多.... 但冇金本衛制...人相信的只是山姆叔叔信預...
擔心加印 $ 來 give others ...所以他國才減少美債 so 匯價下跌 , 但因如日本手上有us$ 多...故下降厲害會干預....
中國貨向外廉價傾銷全世界,係全人類已有共識的事實,
如硬說其他歐洲國家都在作相同事情,係無視近年中國在世界貿易中所佔比例飆升的客觀事實!
but under world trade ...also developing cuntries also increase sale for foreign..
if u need to count... may be after civil war ...china enter to trade with others...
then u know 世界貿易中所佔比例飆升.... let we see ...also the "sale volume" also increase in every years From each countries ... only 100% ...if one who never enter into it ....after competing with others.... the percentage of each countries also derease....(Comparative advantage and absolutely advantage)
just like securities market .....USA also the largest in the world but the percentage it capture in the world are also derease
一般認為解決方法係減少依賴出口,增加內部消費,但正如我所指出:
大陸缺乏醫療、教育……等福利,人人都要為下一代、為自己將來打算,有餘錢都儲起來,不敢消費,
增加內部消費談何容易,這正是今天中國面臨的最大困局!
but c + i + G + X - M = GDP 增加內部消費 =C increase ...if investment decrease is larger than C ...GDP ALSO decrease lor
besides, 增加內部消費 not totally represent increasing living standard ...增加內部消費談何容易? u say 大陸缺乏醫療、教育……等福利 ....if u are investor, u can invest in it ga ...not only have chance to earn $ , but also solve problem
wow
中國貨向外廉價傾銷全世界... also others same as us ...廉價傾銷 is because china also invest less on hi-tech ...odm etc
all things we do are easy to copy and need high manpower .... but salary compare with US are low ...
so it can 廉價傾銷 ...but recent china ppl salary increase immediately ....so i AFRAID 廉價傾銷 HARD TO USE Later
but CHINA have nothing to increase the instinisc value of our product.... HOW TO COMPETE WITH OTHERS ?
i agree 貨幣匯價其實並無所謂合理水平 (reasonable level),but 世界上所有主要貨幣都不會由政府控制 i dont thinnk so
buy US Loan can support US... also b4 1980s 政府 also have 控制 供求 ....but soros defeat bristish once ...
政府加息減息係對貨幣市場的回應 ...i think it is one kind of 手段 to control lor ...too many method govt can use ...
just like govt have some chirman to say the price is reasonable... the 樓按 is no problem ... call ppl who have power to infect the 貨幣匯價 to stop talking... alert ppl to buy share like 911 ....etc
i say the control is this .... may be i write b4 is not clear
中國政府插手控制匯價,結果必然係扭曲貨幣供求,唔係造成嚴重通脹,就係導致通縮,最後只會自食惡果。
but 中國政府插手控制匯價 only make it flexibility increase 5 to 10 % but if agree with US ...i dont know the 升趺多少
COMSUMPTION ...INVESTMENT ...ETC AFFECT 多少...無一個政府敢輕率試 LOR ....不插手控制匯價 ...阿根廷蘇聯 b4
listen Monetary say to change their system ....the effect .....many years ppl live in 災難
反而係貧富懸殊的國家,才革命連年。是了...香港的堅尼指數全球名列前矛...0甘香港....
我只是覺得世上所以事是相對的 不似經濟書是一就一簡單....remember other thing being constant , vice versa, ceteris paribus........... it is difficult to make all thing in constant
[ 本帖最後由 redback 於 2007-5-19 20:44 編輯 ]
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