引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-12 21:01
Haha, yes ar !! the market is actually based on mentality and the atmosphere. However, sometimes of course we need to back to the basic. Such as some small stocks with several thousands P/E (such a ...

Yes, stock market always based on psychological effect and atmosphere more than actual factors to support.
Therefore, 3~4 line stocks ran crazy months ago with skyhigh PE.

Of course, when people around you to sell and ask you to sell, it is a beginning to buy some quality stocks for long time.  

Some people have said HSI would drop to 20000, 19000 or even 16000.  But many of them without any supportive factors, just "HOPE".  When market at 23500, some of them said, I woudl buy at 22500, but did not, and looking for 22000 and so and so.  And really down to a reasonable level.  Woudl they really have gut to buy.

I would start to buy when reach my target price step by step.  
eg: start to use 20% captial to buy stock when HSI reach 21500, another 30% at 21200, another 30% at 20500.
But I believe HSI would only down to 21000 only.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-13 11:03

Avoid sheep mentality but that can be very difficult.

Yes, I agreed, the market is not easy.  It takes time to watch and analysis

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 18:09
"Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank injected cash into the euro-area money market for a third trading day to avert a credit crunch.

The bank loaned 47.665 billion euros ($65  ...

I think Europe market is not problem on this impact, very minority.
I heard a news that Federal Reserve had review the report from most of the fund house in last weekend, and decided to take care of their mortgage & funding problem instead of just pump in more and more money to fund house.

I believe if Dow steady in next 2~3 days and no more mortgage bad news coming; the correction will be over.  And the market will back and forth between couple hundred pts for while before rises again.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 22:04
Yes, I agree. Just pumping money into the market will not help. The ECB should find out the problem and think of some ways to solve it. For US, if federal reserve could cut the rate, at least the s ...

All the facts are being put on the table.
1. interest rate in Japan is cleared which is a good news, carry trade is coming less effect now
2. ECB is fully support Europe market, and won't see any problem
3. US govt is also fully support those investment banks to solve this problem
4. US has highly chance to cut interest rate in Sept
5. Blue chip earning report start this week and on
6. QDII capital coming very soon

Uncertain:
1. potential of more investment bank problem coming.


My conclusion today based on updated factors
If no more investment banks coming, or other unexpected major crisis, the market will be steady for consolidation in next 2 weeks.  By the end of Aug, the market will start to rise.
HSI strengthen supportive level will be 21200

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-13 23:29
Excellent. Your interpretation and description is very good. I can't agree with you more

Yen now trade near 118.40, Good ! hope it could drop back above 119.

By the way, I know that yo ...

For both 3993 & 998 become HKCEI next month, that is good, at least can stimulate the stocks for while.
For bank stock, I don't know why you picked 998, but some are doing better now and future as well. Such as 939 and 1398;  3328 also good if HSBC is okay for settle for mortgage crisis since both stocks are pretty behind the market rise recently.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-14 00:17
At the very beginning of the IPO of 998, I have lots of expectation of this stock - Small commercial bank, fast growth etc. However, finally i discover that the market look down upon on 998 because ...

I know what you meant.  It is okay with small amount of investment on 998, take your time and wait for it rises with whole bank sector later.

In the investment, always try to hold with the topest one in the sector, it is always the best choice, cann't really go wrong.

Dow still up 50 pts, not bad at all, soon long as it stops going down

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-14 23:50
Yes, i really need to take my time on 998.

Yes, I recently understand the reason of buying those stocks who are the leaders in that industries. Such as buying the property related stock in China ...

I see, all China stocks will be okay if they are doing their business properly, only timing.
HK stock today is really boring,

US stock is down 126 pts now, and HK stock expected to drop tomorrow.  It depends on how deep it will go; and we can have better picture for the direction later.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 11:46

Now dropped over 500 points and moving towards 21,000.

Yes, moving to 21200, and see whether HSI can stay above on it.

引用:

Originally posted by 小小力 at 2007-8-15 12:25


I think today can stay over 21200,..but this week...I doubt.,,,!!

Agreed

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 12:35

Will reach this week.

If drop down 21200 then will go to 20800 technical level

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 12:57

Can move quickly to 21,000.

Probably, depend on how many more investment bank got problem

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-15 14:17

No, the strong JPY & USD are pulling down the market and gold price as well.

Yes, strong JPY, 116.xx

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-15 19:08
Dow was down 200 points yesterday, leading to another big drops in the Asian market. The situation is quite worst here today in Asia, Jakarta Composite was down 6.4%, Straits Times 3.35%, Taiwan 3. ...

HSI really depends on how many more bad news coming from around the world.
21200 could be supportive line, but doesn't seem strong now, could down to 20800 soon.  Since JPY getting strong, and more bad news coming out in global!!!

I spent 10% of my capital to buy some stocks today, but not much.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-15 23:29
Haha, you need to be careful ar, 3a4b5c6c, the market is still not stable.

Yes, strong Yen will weight the market. However, very luckily that Dow has reached 13,000 and there should be some supp ...

Yes, that's right, market is not stable yet.  HK has been impacted by global market always.

Why I started to buy stocks now even the market is still unstable
I assumed first supportive line at 21500, then 21200, 20800 and 20300.  Honesty, nobody knows when the bottom line would be, could be anyone of these.
It is tough to guess, and no guarantee.
So, based on my own view, I decided to use a little money to buy some stock now, if going downward, then can buy more and more.  At least, I did not buy anything for long hold from 23500 till now.  The worst may be close to 20000 level.  
I don't think I can know where the bottom line is,  and buy all stocks at that level. I will save for 50% capital to buy at around 20300 if it reachs.  I do on risky way

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-16 21:15
The housing data released tonight suggested that the housing market is deteroriating. However, luckily Federal Reserve has pumped in 5 billion dollars tonight and make the Dow Future recovered from ...

Bad bad days this week, I did not buy at 21200 and 21000 since market dropped fast and deep.  I bought some at 20500 level.  Dow is dropping 260 pts tonight

At this point, HSI is going to reach 20000 or even 250 line 19800, maybe tomorrow or next monday.
I think 20000 is a good level to buy.  So many good quality stocks now, choose some for yourself, it will boost up big % by the end of 2007

HSI can not go down too much now.  PE is less than 14 now.  Can not afford to drop 6~700 pts each day, and already corrected 2800 pts from peak.


I will away for couple days, hopefully, I can connect internet for stock watch and this forum.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-20 20:52
It is really a very good news that China allow her "small" investors to invest in other markets and the first trial will be in HK. This is actually more effective than the QDII product pr ...

I am back, just back to HK, and seen the market dramactically V shape on last friday, and rebound another 1200 pts today.  That is very good.

I did place an order to 2628 and 1800 before I left HK; both got filled with good price.  I did not believe it could be filled.

Dow is now still down 65 pts, don't know what will happen later tonight, hopefully get bound back.


For the technical line, it can not really tell what is going on in HK.  HK does affect by global factors.
Can also be affected by China as well.  
I can see small investor can do trade in HK through BOC in HK which is another proved China govt doesn't want to see HK collpase.  She will find a way to save HK; from 1997 till now whenver HK got problem.  
I still strongly believe HK market still good later.  No matter who are talking about bear market coming, it maybe in US, but can not crash HK market easily.
Unless such as carry trade or big investment banks got problem.  If only US internal depression, it won't really hurt HK much.

As said, China won't let HK crash, it is all about the facts.  QDII, and now small investors invest to HK directly.  Could be more and more benefits to HK if necessary.


Hope HSI keep moving up this week since it dropped 4000 pts from peak.  Rebound is so powerful like today

引用:

Originally posted by nonhuman at 2007-8-21 01:46
I think China Government will keep out "release" money to Hong Kong. Too much money is in China. It will bubble up the asset market. She wants to release the surplus to international mark ...

I agreed so, it is a fact

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-21 08:41
Good to see you back here, and also happy to know that you get 1800 and 2628 at a very good price.

Yes, HK market will help China to go into an international financial centre, and at the sa ...

Chinese will definitely buy the topest one in the sector, and the gap huge different.
then will look into HKCEI and HK local blue chip

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-21 21:54
Volatility in the market was so much today, with a close of only 133 points gain. The turnover is relatively large. Short term profit taking could not be negligible at the moment.

It is worthy t ...

Very good analysis again.
I agreed with your point of view.
I personally like 2628 the most.  Of course, 2318 is a very good one to hold for long too.  Actually insurance sector is almost the best sector in China market today.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-22 22:38
Again, after China raise the interest rate, both Stock A and the HK market went up again, especially those property stocks which gained signficantily.

#941 again and again these few days contrib ...

#941 is a main stock to drive HSI up and down.  So, can up $18 in few days that pushed HSI up over thousand points for sure

For Yen, I think interest will remain the same this time, nothing special.

The remain uncertain factors after tomorrow.
1. 2nd mortgage issue in US
2. Potential correction or big correction in China stock market soon.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-22 23:55
I agree with you prefectly, especially the second point. Some investors will withdraw the money from Stock A (with high P/E) and enter Stock H (with relatively low P/E) in HK. A correction in the & ...

I think we shall play more safe on our portfolio, I will probably sell most of my stocks which do not have A share and all call warrants at this moment.

Will hold share which have A share with big gap to H share.

引用:

Originally posted by cherryjasonchan at 2007-8-24 08:45
We would possibly have a little drop today, after Dow was level yesterday night. Bank of China (3988) might drop because it has the subprime related equity with a number more than expected.

I pe ...

Dropping 180 pts now, but has rebounded from losing over 300 pts an hour ago.
Market today will not drop much, just a bit correction after rising 4 straight days with huge pts gained.

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-24 16:49

As I stated, flat today!

Only dropped 45 pts today, that is pretty flat.
But I have made good money today especially from 2628 and related call warrants

引用:

Originally posted by peninsula at 2007-8-24 17:17

Yes and good on you!

Yes, not bad at all, and now waiting for 2628 earning report release on next monday, hopefully 2628 can fly skyhigh.

引用:

Originally posted by nonhuman at 2007-8-24 22:01
i have bought 2628 too ... but at $32. Have lost the chance on low position coz not available at that day ....

Don't worry bought at $32, you have never known it is high yet.
When it traded between $22~$25, people would think they bought at high level at $25.  But now, when you look back, $24 or $25 is so cheap to have it.

Depends on how you expect and know and confident about your stock well in future.

I bought from $10~$30, and the latest bought at $25.60 last friday, still a good chance to buy more and hold if there is a big drop in the whole market.

If you are also holding call warrant on 2628, can set your target price to sell when reached your target after released earning report next monday