Golden chance to buy Australian/New Zealand dollar
then put them into 1 week fixed deposit waiting for rising
may rise 3-5 % in 2 months

if more proactive
trade forex margin
long AUD/NZD short Yen
but be dicipline and keep good stop-loss

引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-1-23 19:45 發表
I myself would long Yen, short Pound...
I believe there are still lots of mileage to come from YEN... and maybe to a lesser extent CHF
Carry trade would probably continue to unwind, especially if ...

recent global finacial disturbance has result in large scale carry trade unwinding, investors also keep in buying Yen perceiving that it would go up.

this has cause Yen to stand in an extremely high position which is not match with its basic fundamental factors

sooner or later the market would correct this inclination and Yen would likely fall back to its reasonable rate, say around 110 US (now 106.5, time you said short Yen 105.8)

引用:

原帖由 hardcat 於 2008-1-24 12:01 發表
I gotta clarify my position, my view is not for trading short term price movement like a few days or a few weeks, it is very normal the rate go up and and down in short time period without any sign ...

thank you and I see your point
I think both of us have our stand point
and both us could win with good trading stragety to take advantage of the fluctuation
good luck to both of us

let's do some arithmatic

last year RMB rose 5%
plus interest about 1% (depositing in HK, if in Mainland interest more)
less buy/sell different about 1%

so net gain 5%

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-22 12:49 發表
Golden chance to buy Australian/New Zealand dollar
then put them into 1 week fixed deposit waiting for rising
may rise 3-5 % in 2 months

if more proactive
trade forex margin
long AUD/NZD sho ...

within 2 days

AUD/US 85.5 to 87.7
NZD/US 75.5 to 77.2

NZD/Yen 79.5 to 82.2

brother cat :

I like your anaylsis which gives me additional insight to the market.
I shall remember your points and have them brought up before I make my next buy

Can you also let me have your expert views on Canadian dollar ?

And should US continues to cut rate, the possibility thay one day it would take over Yen and CHF's role as a carry trade victim?
If this happens, one day we may see all non US will rise, be it Yen, CHF or the high-rate currencies ? (in fact this is the case 3-5 years ago)

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-25 00:39 發表


within 2 days

AUD/US 85.5 to 87.7
NZD/US 75.5 to 77.2

NZD/Yen 79.5 to 82.2

AUD now 89
NZD now 78
should take profit before US rates announcement tomorrow

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-1-29 20:54 發表

Don't worry. Will continue to be strong.

yes
but in short term
just after US announce the rates meeting result
profit-taking deals may come
which may cause a plunge

underground bank safe or not
personal think RMB in 2008 will rise 5% only

引用:

原帖由 Free2Go 於 2008-1-30 09:21 發表


I don't think so......RMB will rise 10% at the end of this year....

OK
US/RMB now 7.19
if rise 10% then 6.47
if 5% then 6.83

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-1-30 13:19 發表

10% is definite.

http://appledaily.atnext.com/tem ... amp;art_id=10751350

QUOTE:
原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-22 12:49 發表
Golden chance to buy Australian/New Zealand dollar
then put them into 1 week fixed deposit waiting for rising
may rise 3-5 % in 2 months

if more proactive
trade forex margin
long AUD/NZD sho ...

引用:

原帖由 ces 於 2008-1-25 00:39 發表


within 2 days

AUD/US 85.5 to 87.7
NZD/US 75.5 to 77.2

NZD/Yen 79.5 to 82.2

As at 18.2.2008
Aud 0.913
NZD 0.792

Aud/Yen 98.5
Nzd/Yen 85.5

Better Take profit
as further rise for Aud and NZD may be limit