NZD central bank had this morning just released a speech saying they have rooms for further rates cut
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/3369044.html

Therefore in mid term (2weeks - 1month) I think NZD may further correct.
If the bank further hints  a  prolong and progressive rates cutting, then NZD may go under 0.71

Can short NZD at 0.745
target 0.725 before end of August

引用:

原帖由 b4321 於 2008-7-30 20:58 發表
I don't suggest shorting NZD nor AUD, as the interest u need to pay is too high, and it is too expensive if seating in a boat for a long time.

u can short gold, short YEN... but never short NZD nor ...

Yes agree this is a counter opinion one must consider
if short keep good investment dicipline

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-7-30 21:15 發表

Clever. On the contrary, I will long AUD if can reach 0.94.
Shorting JPY is dangerous wor.

congratultions
Your chance to long AUD just came a few hour ago

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-7-31 19:36 發表

Not low enough.

Brother Pen you're so wise

rates 1pm 1.8.2008 :

AUD 0.936
NZD 0.928

You said :.............interest rate is not the only factor to affect its currency
if that easy, all become rich.................


My comment :

If you follow closely the forex market for 5-10 years you will realize that
interest rate is the most crucial factor in affecting the rate of a currency.

And to predict whether a currency would fall or rise is really very easy if you are willing to study hard and you have an average man's intelligence.

but whether you could win depends on your trading stragety and your EQ in carrying out the stragety.

time and again we read in this column someone saying "I know that stock would rise, but I lost. That being the case

引用:

原帖由 peninsula 於 2008-8-1 21:48 發表

I am tempted now.

brother Pen no rush
AUD likely go down 100-200 more points

and short  fry is better than long hold

unless US cuts interest rate
AUD likely  remain  under 0.9 in 3-6 months

yes agree +nzd/yen is good deal
and it have been my main source of profits for the past 5 years

buy NZD/yen had gone as high as 90 (now 78.xx) a few months ago
if one had entered the market at this point

his boat is now drifting in the pacific ocean

therefore the same old saying : enter the market at good point

I think b4321's concept is very helpful to new forex margin traders
and may be placed at the top